Sloan Sports Conference: Top and Bottom Defences from Centres
Old 02-20-2013, 04:37 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Sloan Sports Conference: Top and Bottom Defences from Centres

http://www.sloansportsconference.com...0the%20NBA.pdf

Quote:
Top 5 Proximal FG% Bottom 5 Proximal FG%
1. Larry Sanders 34.9% 48. Kevin Love 52.1%
2. Andrea Bargnani 35.2% 49. Jonas Valanciunas 52.8%
3. Kendrick Perkins 37.3% 50. David Lee 53.0%
4. Elton Brand 38.0% 51. Jordan Hill 53.9%
5. Roy Hibbert 38.7% 52. Anderson Varejao 54.2%
There's some interesting stats in this. Especially for Val and Bargs.
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Old 02-20-2013, 04:40 PM   #2 (permalink)
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well its no secret, I don't think anyhow, that Bargs guards his own guy, the problem is that you're expected to help. He isn't what I'd call a "help defender"
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Old 02-20-2013, 04:48 PM   #3 (permalink)
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well its no secret, I don't think anyhow, that Bargs guards his own guy, the problem is that you're expected to help. He isn't what I'd call a "help defender"
Well some people realise this, but there are also people who are just saying he is a bad defender. I think that even if stats like this are not really "accurate", it proves the point, that AB is ok defending bigs one on one. But he truly lacks in defensive awarness when he would need to help others. But I would say that is often a case with offensice minded players. He could be very valuable as a kind of sixth man, who is there to score, hold his own on defense and not looked as a guy to protect the rim when defense of others falls down.
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Old 02-20-2013, 04:53 PM   #4 (permalink)
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well its no secret, I don't think anyhow, that Bargs guards his own guy, the problem is that you're expected to help. He isn't what I'd call a "help defender"
#2 on the list.... sick!!!
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Old 02-20-2013, 04:58 PM   #5 (permalink)
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You need to question numbers people. Why is the number the way it is.

Is he really the best post defender on the team?

Does he guard the other teams best low-post player? If not, how many teams out there play two solid low-post threats at the same time?

When Bargnani is on the court - is it more tempting to go at him one on one or get him involved in pick and roll action on the perimeter?

How important are these numbers when in it's simplest form they represent 20% of defensive possessions, in Bargs' case most likely less than 10%.
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Old 02-20-2013, 05:01 PM   #6 (permalink)
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He has decent man to man defensive skill - but it's not as simple as thinking that's half the job - it isn't even close.
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Old 02-20-2013, 05:04 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Maybe i should have read the article first because clearly I didn't
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Old 02-20-2013, 05:08 PM   #8 (permalink)
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That Elton Brand/Andrea frontcourt will own the league.
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Old 02-20-2013, 05:21 PM   #9 (permalink)
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The report is severely limited beyond what they communicated in their limitation section.

Really bad.

Forget FG %; just show me who is regularly getting within 5 feet of the basket on Field Goal attempts. Those are the good defenders. Varejao/Lee would be near the top in this regard.
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Old 02-20-2013, 06:44 PM   #10 (permalink)
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I read this thing very carefully, and it seems to be nothing much more than a possible framework for interpreting raw data, and at that it's limited by data coming from only half the league. It's a bit like buying sheet music for a kazoo recital.
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Old 02-20-2013, 07:04 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I pulled this off of reddits nba section. I thought it was interesting and wanted to share it. It's a change from the normal I suppose. And all the GSW call David Lee Avid Lee, no D. So I doubt Lee is very high on any positive defensive stat. Lee also only has 11 blocks this season. Kyle Lowry has 14. Also the members were saying that David is basically a fantasy player. Good stats but beyond that, nothing. They didn't seem too high on him.
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Old 02-20-2013, 07:11 PM   #12 (permalink)
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It was interesting, and I liked that it pointed out the complexity involved. It just didn't come close to making sense of that complexity, and they really strayed when they made comparisons to baseball.
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:27 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Its pretty crazy the jump that Larry Sanders has made in one offseason, from being a guy who couldnt stay on the court due to foul trouble to the best shot blocker and shot changer in the NBA, with a much much lower foul rate. You look at Brook Lopez, who is one of the best offensive centers in the NBA, and Sanders swallowed him whole the last 2 days. It's really quite amazing how much his defence has grown over one season.

With Bargs, he is a very solid post defender as hes shown many times, but he is still the worst help defender in the NBA by far. And with the way the game has changed with nearly every play involving pick and rolls, and multiple rotations, a player like Bargs is a negative a lot of the time hes on the court because he often either has no idea where to rotate, or just not put in the effort to do so, allowing the other team to dominate the paint with penetration and or offensive rebounds.

Its infuriating watching him play.
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Old 02-20-2013, 11:29 PM   #14 (permalink)
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You have to think about this somewhat abstractly.

Regarding the simplicity of blocks, and steals.

These are simple yes, but they're something that defensive players try to do. The achievement of these statistics leads to a positive - for the most part. To win basketball games; players try to get blocks and steals.


As soon as the authors create an arbitrary 5 foot mark, they are defining their own personal "good defense".



Like if this stat was recorded, and players were aware of this stat and tried to get a low percentage (like Lebron and Wade trying to shoot over 50%); if an offensive player was likely to score; a defender aware of this statistic would intentionally make a bad basketball decision, and not come within 5 feet of the rim. " Screw getting the rebound I'm staying out by the 6 foot area".

Hypothetical situation: David Lee, Anderson Varejao and Andrea Bargnani are sitting 7 feet from the rim on the weak-side and 100 times in a row, an offensive player on the strong side is going hard to the rim with only a remote chance that he will miss the layup.David Lee and Andy; being the non-stop hustlers that they are, would gravitate towards the net to get the 5% chance that the layup would get missed. Bargnani for the most part assumes the layup goes in; sits at 7 feet outside the rim and doesn't react.

Simply showing the percentage of possessions that a player is within 5 feet as a shot goes up would also be a more telling statistic of defensive aptitude.

Who gets there?

Opponent FG% in the paint while a player is on the court - within 5 feet or 30 feet would also be more useful.

As far as who alters shots...I like Blocks. Charges is equally as good. Sometimes simple is good.

Last edited by bjjs; 02-20-2013 at 11:33 PM.
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Old 02-21-2013, 12:37 PM   #15 (permalink)
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I don't know if anybody caught the NBAtv interview with Bill Russell on Monday. It's hard not to be struck by the fact that stats for blocks were not kept when he played. Bill Simmons bemoaned that fact, because he thought Russell would be shown to be the greatest shot-blocker of all time. But Russell was quite happy to not have any ownership of such stats. It is entirely meaningless to him. He always talks about having done what was needed to win. He put an emphasis on defense, but he saw his defensive play, rebounding, and outlet passes as intrinsic to offensive success. When you start breaking the game into little frozen moments, you get data, but there is a lot of information that falls right out of the bottom.

I wonder what old Bill would think of the Dwight Howard effect. I can't imagine he would care to think about how he might effect the game by simply having a presence. In a fluid game going from situation to situation, he would be doing everything he could to go well beyond that, not as an individual, but as part of a team. I'm sure there was a Wilt Chamberlain effect. It didn't lead to his team winning when it needed to, to the extent that you would think it should have, considering what he could do as a player.
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Old 02-21-2013, 01:03 PM   #16 (permalink)
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I don't know if anybody caught the NBAtv interview with Bill Russell on Monday. It's hard not to be struck by the fact that stats for blocks were not kept when he played. Bill Simmons bemoaned that fact, because he thought Russell would be shown to be the greatest shot-blocker of all time. But Russell was quite happy to not have any ownership of such stats. It is entirely meaningless to him. He always talks about having done what was needed to win. He put an emphasis on defense, but he saw his defensive play, rebounding, and outlet passes as intrinsic to offensive success. When you start breaking the game into little frozen moments, you get data, but there is a lot of information that falls right out of the bottom.

I wonder what old Bill would think of the Dwight Howard effect. I can't imagine he would care to think about how he might effect the game by simply having a presence. In a fluid game going from situation to situation, he would be doing everything he could to go well beyond that, not as an individual, but as part of a team. I'm sure there was a Wilt Chamberlain effect. It didn't lead to his team winning when it needed to, to the extent that you would think it should have, considering what he could do as a player.
Out of the 3 interview specials (MJ, Barkley, Russell) that was the best one by far IMO. Really enjoyed listening to him talk about the game and life in general back then.

One thing he said really opened my eyes and made me re-think things... it was when Simmons was bringing up the comparisons against Wilt. Many have said (myself included) that Wilt just didn't have the teammates to succeed when compared to Russell but Russell said... "If you think about it, Wilt's teammates were only there to pass him the ball so he could score. They were there to make him look good. For me? I didn't have much interest in scoring... I was there to make my teammates look good." Pretty telling.
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