Lockout official - Page 31
Old 11-06-2011, 09:01 AM   #601 (permalink)
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"This is for the future of NBA Players"?


BOO HOO!


The union apparently offered a 50% BRI + 1% for retired players. So how is the leagues offer of up to 51% so awful and unforgivable? This is ridiculous!

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Old 11-06-2011, 09:18 AM   #602 (permalink)
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Dance, puppets, dance.

Stern is sapping the players dry, no bones about it. The offer remains the same, outside a couple small mediator driven allowances in the system (such as a biannual midlevel exception for tax paying teams), it's 50%, with a fairly restrictive system.

There's a reason the offer was made like it was - it is an insulting way of saying - here's the offer we already made, adjusted slightly so it seems like a new offer, and take it or leave it. No way do Stern and the owners want the proposal put in front of the rank and file players yet - they haven't back-negotiated into the system they want yet. You heard Stern - a flex cap she is a-coming (at 47% no less).

Then what happens? The owners make their ridiculous offer (47%, flex cap, probably salary rollbacks), and the players decide to decertify, filing at a time where the 45 day waiting period will end around the drop-dead date for the season (mid January, let's say). The owners stand firm until close to the vote day, then they make a dramatically improved offer - they take the flex cap off the table and put back a tax system (much harder than the one being proposed now) - with extreme limitations on taxpaying teams in free agency, they go to 49% for the players with a chance for 50% based on revenues (with of course a large escrow system), they remove the salary rollbacks and voila! We've got ourselves the offer the players take rather than decertify.

Sure it's worse than what they are being offered now, but it is so much better than what they'll be offered in a week, that the rank and file will vote to take it. And no way do the rank and file vote on decertifying if there is a new offer to vote on - Fisher and Hunter won't be able to keep the vote from happening that close to 'doomsday' as it were. In fact, at that point Hunter needs the vote to happen - he's an employee of the union - which very shortly would cease to exist.
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Old 11-06-2011, 09:20 AM   #603 (permalink)
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Woj:

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Veteran player who has long been on side of decertification just texted me: "Time to blow this (bleep) to the moon."

DeronWilliams:

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I've been ready to sign a decertification petition since July? Can't believe we are just now going this route! SMH
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Old 11-06-2011, 11:58 AM   #604 (permalink)
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The union apparently offered a 50% BRI + 1% for retired players. So how is the leagues offer of up to 51% so awful and unforgivable? This is ridiculous!
Apparently the 51% only happens if the BRI grows by something like 16% that year. Which is close to impossible.
The realistic year to year growth is 4% in which case players get 50.2%.
And if the revenues take a hit, the players may end up below 50%.

They should still take that offer imo, no point to lose more games for 0.8% and some system changes.
But it's not really a 51% offer.
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Old 11-06-2011, 12:24 PM   #605 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by ValanciunasFanboy View Post
Apparently the 51% only happens if the BRI grows by something like 16% that year. Which is close to impossible.
The realistic year to year growth is 4% in which case players get 50.2%.
And if the revenues take a hit, the players may end up below 50%.

They should still take that offer imo, no point to lose more games for 0.8% and some system changes.
But it's not really a 51% offer.
More like 22% year over year revenue growth. But you are right - the players should be taking this and running.
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Old 11-06-2011, 12:42 PM   #606 (permalink)
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Well, on Wednesday, we will see that a season will probably not happen.
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Old 11-06-2011, 02:11 PM   #607 (permalink)
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and the agents continue to shape the bullshit ideas that everyone is getting fucked over in this. lots of rich people fighting over a shrinking pie. scale back your lamborgini fleets. i really hope the rank and file refuses to sign this petition to decertify.
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Old 11-06-2011, 02:15 PM   #608 (permalink)
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OH man, some of the players are getting shitted on, on twitter. Btw it looks like some of the players are pushing for decertification. Im honestly tired of this, im not going to waste my time on this anymore
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Old 11-06-2011, 02:23 PM   #609 (permalink)
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I'm telling you, the rank and file won't let it go this far. most of the big name assholes can get gigs playing in europe and asia and south america, and make some coin and stay in game shape, but i doubt the mid-level, role players, will be able to enjoy the same luxury. There's a limit to how many foreign players a team can have.
I actually think all this talk will dissipate and there'll be a deal in place and basketball happening in a few weeks. honestly, with the way the economy is, and ticket prices being where they are, most of even the hardline owners won't be able to stomach a season without revenue.
If it does go through and the season is nixed, we can thank backdoor shenanigans, bureaucracy, and the fragility of the male ego.
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Old 11-06-2011, 02:26 PM   #610 (permalink)
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ye, it makes no sense to go through decertification now, and the deal is not bad. I also think this has to do a lot with ego and pride now
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Old 11-06-2011, 05:18 PM   #611 (permalink)
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I will probably be in a minority here, but I don't quite understand why would the majority of owners be happy with this deal?

Most of them have set up this lockout to achieve two primary goals - reasonable cost certainty and a better competitive system. None of these, near as I can see, can possibly be achieved without a hard cap or some variation thereof, and that's what's been off the table since the beginning of fall, if my memory serves!

Tougher luxury tax penalties, smaller exceptions, shorter contracts, even most favourable BRI split to the tune of 47 to the players and 53 to the owners are just temporary measures since the spirit of the old CBA is not being changed, only the numbers here and there. As DanH's dissertation, among other articles of research, clearly shows, it's just a matter of time before the better earning teams in LA, NY or Chicago or teams with owners who value sporting results over business losses like Dallas find a way to inflate their payrolls and thus "afford" to overpay their roster, setting up an inevitable chain reaction of overpaying around the league. The alternative to this behaviour is owners in smaller markets throwing their hands in the air and admitting they simply cannot compete AND continue to make a profit, thus ensuring that their fans turn away from the franchise in droves, exacerbating the vicious cycle. On top of that, the BRI split numbers mean jack shit when the escrow gets formed by a limited percentage of players' salaries - again, it has been illustrated how in time the escrow simply won't be enough to cover the losses.

The players, or at least their economists, lawyers and agents, understand all this very well. I believe they are rather posturing right now, because their fight has essentially been won the moment the owners took the hard cap off the table. All NBPA needs to do is save their face a little for the simple-minded out there by not seeming to cave in too soon - but their primary goal of leaving the owners with enough rope to hang themselves once again has already been achieved. On the other hand, I'd love for someone to explain to me what in the world would Milwaukees, Portlands, San Antonios and Oklahomas of the NBA be thinking about agreeing to ratify a new CBA without capped spending.

And don't mention better revenue sharing. It would help on the business side of things, somewhat at least, but it won't help at all with leveling of the playing field. Fans of all teams want to have a chance at winning it all, owners of well-run teams want to be able to make healthy profit - and both of these goals are not achievable without a hard cap in place. If I am MJ or Paul Allen, I am not agreeing to anything until the league gets what it needs to go forward as a competitive and economically sound enterprise. And if the players don't see themselves participating, let's wait for a year and ask them again.

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Old 11-06-2011, 05:56 PM   #612 (permalink)
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The NBA will never go to a hard cap.
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Old 11-06-2011, 06:07 PM   #613 (permalink)
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The NBA will never go to a hard cap.
Shame. But I don't know that you are right. I don't even know if I would bet money that we don't end up with a hard cap this time around.

Still unlikely, but no sure thing with the players association taking these hard line stances without actually polling the members - when the members finally do get to be heard, the NBA might not be offering a soft cap. It will depend on how quickly the owners pull back their offer after Wednesday, if it gets past that date.
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Old 11-07-2011, 09:25 AM   #614 (permalink)
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Just saw on the news that Stern offered them a deal, and if they don't accept it by Wednesday then they will continue to go even lower. Its a no brainer for the players to accept, if they don't I guarantee the entire season will be wiped without a doubt.
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Old 11-07-2011, 09:33 AM   #615 (permalink)
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Just saw on the news that Stern offered them a deal, and if they don't accept it by Wednesday then they will continue to go even lower. Its a no brainer for the players to accept, if they don't I guarantee the entire season will be wiped without a doubt.
They should definitely take the deal. But I doubt not taking it will mean the end of the season. Even if the players do get the 50%+1 needed to decertify (doubt it), they'll take a deal from the owners before the 45 day waiting period is up.
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Old 11-07-2011, 11:44 AM   #616 (permalink)
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They should definitely take the deal. But I doubt not taking it will mean the end of the season. Even if the players do get the 50%+1 needed to decertify (doubt it), they'll take a deal from the owners before the 45 day waiting period is up.
Yeah, and I am pretty sure they will take it right up their asses, so to speak.

Look, I don't see the rank-and-file rejecting the current deal either, which is why the leadership won't put it to vote.
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Old 11-07-2011, 12:46 PM   #617 (permalink)
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Well some of the players are pushing for decertification right now, so lets see how this goes
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Old 11-07-2011, 01:33 PM   #618 (permalink)
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Just saw on the news that Stern offered them a deal, and if they don't accept it by Wednesday then they will continue to go even lower. Its a no brainer for the players to accept, if they don't I guarantee the entire season will be wiped without a doubt.
This whole process was such a waste of time. The players never stood a chance from the start as they had no leverage to begin with. Something the superstars don't understand (or more accurately their arrogance and sense of entitlement got in the way) is that the majority of players weren't equipped to maintain a lock-out long term - something the owners understood - that's why they are billionaires, know/understand your counterpart before you begin negotiations. Even IF the union decertifies now it works to the advantage of the owners as the 45 day waiting period pushes the date close to the termination date of the season - and these rank and file players will be feeling the financial pinch as they have a 'family(s) to feed' and car and house payments to make. And the more the players bitch publicly of losing monies the more public support they are going to lose, especially in these economic times. The owners have made masterful moves IMO as they have ran circles around the union. Every time the union does something or attempts anything the owners have been prepared for it. Now as time goes the union will receive a deal that will continually decline in value for themselves. This whole process IMO has been more about the owners breaking the egos of players who think they can do whatever they want, whenever they want to whomever they want regardless of the league.

I've been on the owners side from the start as they have all the risk in this business so they should get most of the reward - to me that's business. So in the end I love what's happening, the players want to call it a business then they are getting educated in the real world of what it means to be an employee - meaning they are not in control and they are replaceable. Welcome to our world.
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Old 11-07-2011, 01:39 PM   #619 (permalink)
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yep, yep and yep doc. i don't doubt that this has been stern's plan from as far back as june, if not farther.
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Old 11-07-2011, 02:12 PM   #620 (permalink)
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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/08/sp...atum.html?_r=1

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A letter sent by David Stern, the commissioner of the N.B.A., to the players union Sunday contrasts the proposal on the table — highlighted by a 50-50 split of revenues — with a “reset” proposal that would cut the players’ share to 47 percent, roll back current contracts, impose a hard salary cap and reduce contract lengths.
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The N.B.A.’s current proposal to the players includes a soft salary cap, a 50 percent share of revenues for players and these features:

-Salary-cap and luxury-tax levels in Years 1 and 2 of the new agreement will be no less than they were in 2010-11. By Year 3, they will be adjusted downward to conform to the new system.
-Sign-and-trade deals and the biannual exception will be available only to nontaxpaying teams.
-Extend-and-trade deals, such as the one signed by Carmelo Anthony last season, will be prohibited.
-The midlevel exception will be set at $5 million for nontaxpaying teams, with a maximum length between three and four years (alternating annually). The value of the exception will grow by 3 percent annually, starting in Year 3.
-The midlevel exception will be set at $2.5 million for taxpaying teams, with a maximum length of two years, and cannot be used in consecutive years. Its value will also grow at 3 percent annually.
-A 10 percent escrow tax will be withheld from player salaries, to ensure that player earnings do not exceed 50 percent of league revenues. An additional withholding will be applied in Year 1 “to account for business uncertainty” stemming from the lockout.
-Maximum contract lengths will be five years for “Bird” free agents and four years for others.
-Annual contract increases will be 5.5 percent for “Bird” players and 3.5 percent for others.
-Players will be paid a prorated share of their 2011-12 salaries, based on the number of games played once the season starts.
-Team and player contract options will be prohibited in new contracts, other than rookie deals. But a player can opt out of the final year of a contract if he agrees to zero salary protection (i.e., if it is nonguaranteed).
Quote:
The “reset” proposal features a flex-cap system that contains an absolute salary ceiling — to be set $5 million above the average team salary. In addition, the N.B.A. would roll back existing contracts “in proportion to system changes in order to ensure sufficient market for free agents.”

The other major differences in the “reset” proposal are:
-The midlevel exception would be set at $3 million in Year 1, with a maximum length of three years, and would grow at 3 percent annually.
-Maximum salaries would be reduced.
-Sign-and-trade rules would remain consistent with the 2005 labor deal.
-Contracts would be limited to four years for “Bird” free agents and three years for others, but each team could give a five-year deal to one designated player.
-Raises would be limited to 4.5 percent for “Bird” players and 3.5 percent for others.
-Changes requested by the union on restricted free agency rules and salary-cap holds would not be included.
Stern's not messing around here. Holy crap.
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