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-   -   KnicksTape: on Novak and Bargnani, and how Bargnani might fit (http://www.raptorsforum.com/f/f6/knickstape-novak-bargnani-how-bargnani-might-fit-25761.html)

woodchuck 08-29-2013 02:02 PM

KnicksTape: on Novak and Bargnani, and how Bargnani might fit
 
Good read and a number of interesting points.

I won't copy paste because it has a lot of pictures.

KnicksTape: What can Andrea Bargnani bring to the table? - Posting and Toasting

jeffb 08-29-2013 02:05 PM

Quote:

Fact: Andrea Bargnani hasn't shot above 35% from three-point range since 2009-2010. Another fact: He shot 29.6% and 30.9% from beyond the arc in each of the last two seasons.

This would appear to be bad news. The Knicks gave up one of the game's best shooters in Steve Novak for a non-rebounding, non-shooting seven-footer who also happens to be allergic to defense. Oh, and he'll cost $11.8 million this upcoming season and $11.5 million the following year, assuming he doesn't (he won't) exercise his early termination option.

So what's the good news? There's that fresh start/less pressure/optimism abound thing, which could work. But more reliable than some return-to-form miracle is Bargnani's league-wide reputation -- meaning teams still regard him as a knockdown shooter, even if he might not be. And this matters for a number of reasons, but most importantly because he can actually space the floor.
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Quote:

The One-Trick Pony Problem

What does that mean, exactly? A basketball team can't just stick shooters around a great dribble-driver or isolation player; if the shooters are incapable of other offensive moves, namely pump fakes and drives/pull-ups on hard closeouts, weak side defenders guarding the shooters can cheat more towards the strong side.

Think of it in terms of Steve Novak: A common misconception about his ability to space the floor lies within how defenders guard him. We typically assume that they just latch onto his hip and stay attached to him all over the floor -- any kind of space and he's lethal. This is true, to some degree, particularly when Novak is close to the ball.

Here's Novak on the same side as a Pablo Prigioni drive to the basket. After Prigioni turns the corner on the pick-and-roll, both defenders get caught up Tyson Chandler. There's now a gaping hole straight towards the rim, with only Chris Bosh capable up stepping up.

Except he doesn't, because Steve Novak is his man, on the strong side and in the passing vicinity. So Bosh feigns help defense, opting for a deterring lunge towards the paint, followed by a quick scramble back. Prigioni walks in for a layup.
Quote:

Though we actively attribute this effect to Steve Novak, it's a common NBA theme these days to shut down the three-point line instead of playing help defense. Teams typically rely on weak side rotations to cover this void, and would rather force penetrators to make longer and more difficult passes to the opposite perimeter or corner. This is why the loss of Novak isn't actually all that detrimental; the defense-siphoning role Novak fills can be handled by any capable shooter.

But the real problem surfaces on the weak side. See here, when Novak is in the opposite corner in transition (not pictured, but he's in the right corner), while his defender, Donald Sloan, is light-years away.
Quote:

And that's the Novak problem, in a nutshell. The inherent spacing value his shooting brings is undermined by his inability to capitalize on overzealous closeouts. Defenses know this, and actively run him off the three-point line with full sprint closeouts and without consequence. And because they're running at top speed, they can stretch their coverage distance. The result is more help on the strong side, reducing the threat of a, say, Carmelo Anthony drive. Novak's essential spacing purpose is rendered moot.

Enter Andrea Bargnani. Say what you will about his offensive repertoire, but at the very least he's fully capable of punishing defenders who rush towards him too quickly.
Quote:

How else can New York utilize Bargnani?

The constant comparisons to Steve Novak aren't mean to undervalue Bargnani's role; it's that in the Knicks offense, he'll never serve as a primary scoring option -- either on the first or second unit. But in the Novak role, Bargnani can be much more effective than Novak ever was.

With one caveat, though: as long as the Knick use him as a power forward or center. Bargnani's value isn't relative to his shooting; it's relative to his size as a shooter. Because he's seven feet tall, opposing defenses will be forced to use power forwards and centers to guard him. If he lingers on the perimeter, he can draw out basket-protecting bigs into uncomfortable perimeter territory and reduce the defense's dribble-drive help capabilities. This is what Mike D'Antoni used to revolutionize the league, and is "small ball" in its most literal sense. Four wing players around one big, spacing the floor and stretching defenses. But the "stretch" four isn't "stretch" if he's not being guarded by a big.

This is especially key in pick-and-roll situations. The Knicks have avoided Guard-Novak pick-and-rolls the last two years because Novak isn't a particularly strong pick-setter. Here, he starts setting a pick on Nic Batum well before any contact is even possible. Batum uses the extra moment to slide under the screen, and Novak begins releasing before Batum has even moved past his shoulder.
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/31...uble_Photo.jpg

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/31...gnani_Pick.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ijwo8exl7ko

Raptorman 08-30-2013 10:13 AM

I have a buddy with a b!!tch for a gf. He constantly tells me the few good things she did over the years and never acknowledges the b!!tch that she is every day.

I imagine if they broke up and she got a new BF she might be decent for a spell, but would revert to her old ways in no time.

Glad I got that off my chest. :cookie:

halphbreedballer 08-30-2013 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raptorman (Post 815751)
I have a buddy with a b!!tch for a gf. He constantly tells me the few good things she did over the years and never acknowledges the b!!tch that she is every day.

I imagine if they broke up and she got a new BF she might be decent for a spell, but would revert to her old ways in no time.

Glad I got that off my chest. :cookie:

LOL:yeah:

bjjs 08-30-2013 10:53 AM

That's some bad analysis of those pick and roll pictures.

Someguy again 08-30-2013 12:04 PM

trying a little to hard to be zach lowe

Tommy C 08-30-2013 12:41 PM

Are we still pounding this rock? lol The Knicks might benefit this trade, who knows? we need to wait and see. We had to ship him out of town and we got some serviceable pieces in return. The Knicks didn't give up anything significant in return, and if anything, this trade will make them better. They don't care about draft picks or cap space, they took the risk on him with 2 years left and it may or may not work for them. He is no longer our problem and I wish him all the best.

woodchuck 08-30-2013 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Someguy again (Post 815760)
trying a little to hard to be zach lowe

Hah. But he's actually good. It's the first time I see that blog, but this is impressive for a presumably unpaid blogger. This is better than nearly all the ESPN insider stuff, although maybe that's not saying much these days.

DocHoliday99 08-30-2013 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by woodchuck (Post 815768)
Hah. But he's actually good. It's the first time I see that blog, but this is impressive for a presumably unpaid blogger. This is better than nearly all the ESPN insider stuff, although maybe that's not saying much these days.

Probably not lol; nothing in that article that hasn't been discussed ad nauseam here. In fact, there was hope that the Raps could do the same thing with Bosh at the 5 and Bargs as a stretch 4 a couple years in.

I'm thinking that the results will be pretty much the same although with one caveat to that (that the writer started to go) and that is Bargs won't be the 1st, 2nd or even 3rd option on the Knicks as the Raps never had players like 'Melo, Chandler, Felton, Shumpert, Amare, etc. So really, on the premise that Bargs is a more offensively versatile player than Novak and will help open lanes for 'Melo and the rest, then I fully believe AB will have a positive net impact on the Knicks. Certainly didn't hurt their defence exchanging him for Novak - probably even improved it since Bargs is an average to above average iso defender and Novak is not - Chandler will clean up the rest.

Overall, I still like the move for the Raps and the Knicks. It really is a shame though, when I start thinking back to 2004 to 2006 what could've been if the Raps drafted Iguodala in 2004, not traded Vince that year and still drafted AB in 06 (or had a different GM so he could be wise and take Aldridge). TJ/VC/AI/CB/LA <-----contenders right there - just saying :dead: lol I know, I know, probably wouldn't have gone that way even if the team kept Vince and drafted AI, to good to be bottom dwellers to get the 1st pick

Anyways, I digress, lol, playing with what-if's are like a sore tooth, one knows not to play with it but you just can't help it sometimes :)

Toby 08-30-2013 07:37 PM

Good thing you didn't tell them Bargnani gets hurt all the time. I guess it's payback for them not telling you Landry Fields is an oft inured player?

DocHoliday99 08-30-2013 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toby (Post 815804)
Good thing you didn't tell them Bargnani gets hurt all the time. I guess it's payback for them not telling you Landry Fields is an oft inured player?

The proverbial "You owed me one!!" Wink wink nudge nudge :mu:

LOG 08-30-2013 09:24 PM

wish we would've traded him before the whole league realized that he sucks..

jeffb 08-30-2013 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOG (Post 815820)
wish we would've traded him before the whole league realized that he sucks..

He's been injured the last 2 seasons. We pretty much would have had to trade him right after Bosh left or just after that 13 game stretch in the 2011-12 season just before he got hurt. lol

LET'S GO RAPTORS!!!!! 08-31-2013 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOG (Post 815820)
wish we would've traded him before the whole league realized that he sucks..

Yup could've been dealt during that glorious 13 game stretch but BC had too much pride to do it.

rapsmannn 08-31-2013 12:20 PM

now that bargnani is gone its even more eye opening to see how bad he really was

I hope he plays better but I doubt he will, I can see him back in Europe after the contract

jeffb 08-31-2013 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rapsmannn (Post 815849)
now that bargnani is gone its even more eye opening to see how bad he really was

I hope he plays better but I doubt he will, I can see him back in Europe after the contract

Nahhhh. He'll be better in NY at least for the first couple months if he can stay healthy. And I think he'll certainly get another NBA contract.

Tommy C 08-31-2013 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rapsmannn (Post 815849)
now that bargnani is gone its even more eye opening to see how bad he really was

I hope he plays better but I doubt he will, I can see him back in Europe after the contract

I don't think he is that bad, and like jeffb said he will do fine in NY if healthy. He has flaws no doubt about it and I am not going to sugarcoat it, but as a big 7 footer who is mainly a shooter his % was bad, which related to confidence and lack of motivation as well. His time was up. He is not a banger at the low post, and people who expected him to put 20/10 every night were delusional.

jeffb 08-31-2013 01:39 PM

Lol

Bargnani: I Want to Be Ready for Knicks Camp | HOOPSWORLD | Basketball News & NBA Rumors

woodchuck 08-31-2013 01:42 PM

I don't know why non-star Euros go to the NBA anyway. If you can get around midlevel multi year deal in the NBA, it makes sense. If you go to the NBA out of competitive spirit, it makes sense.
But in case Bargs doesn't get mid level with multiple guaranteed years, I won't be surprised to see him leave. Once you account for taxes, I'm sure he could make more than 5 mil / year in Europe despite his poor last few years.


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