ESPN: Predictions for ROY
Old 08-25-2009, 02:42 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Arrow ESPN: Predictions for ROY

1. Blake Griffin: 43 votes
2. James Harden: 3 votes
3. Jonny Flynn: 3 votes
4. Stephen Curry: 2 votes

No votes for DD.

Welcome to the second annual edition of our Summer Forecast series.

Over the next couple of weeks, we'll roll out our predictions for the 2009-10 season's Best Newcomers, Worst Newcomers, MVP, conference champions and NBA champs. We'll also foretell how each team will do this season, and provide our educated guesses on where LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Shaquille O'Neal and Ricky Rubio will play in 2010-11.

To do this, we've asked 53 of ESPN's best basketball minds for their forecasts, including contributors from ESPN television and radio, ESPN The Magazine, ESPN Insider, ESPN Stats & Information, ESPN Deportes, ESPN Multimedia, ESPN Fantasy, ESPN Interactive Games, ESPN DB and (The full list of voters is below.)

We're starting with the prediction our expert panel deemed the easiest on the board: Rookie of the Year. Just as it was a no-brainer for the Clippers to select Blake Griffin, our voters made him their first choice, as well, with 81.1 percent of the vote. And if you're a fan of the No. 2 pick, Hasheem Thabeet, you'll find a modicum of support for him, too.

2009-10 Predictions: Rookie of the Year

The skinny

Blake Griffin
While the Clippers' trade of Zach Randolph cleared the way for Griffin to step right in and get minutes, their new power forward has some history working against him: (1) only two of the past 10 No. 1 picks have won Rookie of the Year, and (2) no Los Angeles Clipper has ever won the award, despite the franchise's near-permanent residence in Lotteryland. (Terry Cummings did win ROY for the San Diego Clippers in 1983, and the Buffalo Braves, the original incarnation of the Clips, did have back-to-back winners in 1973 and 1974: Bob McAdoo and Ernie DiGregorio.)

Those tendencies notwithstanding, most of our voters believe Griffin's dominance at Oklahoma will translate into success in L.A. Even the Clippers' well-catalogued legacy of disaster was not enough to deter voters. In fact, as we'll see later in our forecast series, Griffin's arrival makes the Clippers one of our committee's choices for the top turnaround team.

James Harden
The state of Oklahoma gets another quick shout-out, as No. 3 pick James Harden also made the top three in our forecast. The shooting guard from Arizona State should have ample opportunity for the Thunder, though he'll compete with holdovers Thabo Sefolosha and Kyle Weaver. If all goes according to plan, Harden might become OKC's second-leading scorer, behind rifleman Kevin Durant.

Jonny Flynn
Flynn is generally considered the most NBA-ready rookie east of Blake Griffin, and he'd better be -- he'll be starting from day one for the Timberwolves. Unless, of course, the Wolves actually do coax Ricky Rubio to join them, in which case the PG controversy born on draft night will be revived.

Stephen Curry
The theory behind Curry's Rookie of the Year bid is pretty clear: He's a gunner in an offense built for gunners. That said, Golden State has so many guards and wing players ready to fire away -- and coach Don Nelson has such a well-established aversion to young players -- that it's not clear exactly whether Curry will get the minutes and shots he needs to compete for this award. But if he does, watch out.

NBA offseason: Rookie of the Year predictions - ESPN
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Old 08-25-2009, 03:07 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Harden is going to bust hard in Oklahoma and it's too bad because OKC is maybe two years and a couple players away from being very, very good.

As of right now I don't know how you pick against Blake Griffin, especially considering the overall strength, or lack thereof, of the draft class as well as the opportunity he's been given to start and lead in LA.
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Old 08-25-2009, 03:12 PM   #3 (permalink)

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i'm sure dunleavy will do everything he can to make it difficult for him...
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Old 08-25-2009, 03:19 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Old 08-25-2009, 03:41 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Harden will be a bust but not as much as Thabeet
DD will not win but will be in one of the 2 rookie team
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Old 08-25-2009, 04:13 PM   #6 (permalink)
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griffin will win it easily because of his teams situation. i think HT is going to be a terrible player, maybe another darko, other then his defense he seems to suck @ everything else.
harden will thrive in his roll there, with westbrook @ the 1 and KD @ the 3/4 he will be relied upon to not do much other then defend and score once in a while which he can do.
man i wish we drafted flynn, i know we have jose but he looked so much btr then DD.
memphis should of taken harden instead of HT and then given OKC HT, both teams would of been much better off.

Last edited by komot; 08-25-2009 at 04:22 PM.
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Old 08-25-2009, 07:30 PM   #7 (permalink)


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I would say Harden or Curry. Though both can bring it some nights, but not so hard the next. It all depends, really like Harden as a pospect though.
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Old 08-25-2009, 07:52 PM   #8 (permalink)

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why is everyone so sure of Griffin?

I know he'll do spectacular in his rookie season but he's on a team full of scorers, Gordon, Davis, Thorton, Butler plus his rebounding won't be so great because of Kaman and Camby battling him for their place on the starting lineup.

for me its a 45/55 between Tyreke Evans and Griffin, but Blake with the slight advantage.
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