BR: Prediction, biggest free agent busts 2013-14
Old 09-12-2013, 01:51 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Predicting the Biggest NBA Free-Agent Busts During 2013-14 Season | Bleacher Report

7- Alan Anderson (Nets)
6-Carly Landry (Kings)
5- Nikola Pekovic (Wolves)
4- Zaza Pachulia (Bucks)
3- Josh Smith (Pistons)
2- Monta Ellis (Mavs)
1-Al Jefferson (Bobcats)
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:20 PM   #2 (permalink)
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8-Brandon Jennings
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:25 PM   #3 (permalink)
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8-Brandon Jennings
I predict he's a bigger bust than Ellis tbh. Detroit's team looks so disjointed to me. No decent wings, Smith being played in the wrong role and Jennings chucking 18-20 shots per game. That team is a disaster imo.
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:31 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Their reasoning with Anderson is perplexing, and very BR-esque. The Nets were already way over the cap, 4 million extra isn't going to hurt them, and as they mentioned, Anderson is a good insurance policy as a 5th guard.

Pekovic has already shown what he can do and has steadily improved every year, as they pointed out. Even if he's at his peak as they mentioned, he'll still be worth 5 years 60 million assuming he gives the same type of production inside and on the boards. BR picking apart his propensity to get easy baskets just shows how bad the website is. Him scoring 75% of his points from 3 feet and in is a good thing, as he's not going to be relied upon to create offence for Minnesota on regular postups that often.

The others make sense though. Landry and Pachulia received the worst contracts of the offseason IMO, because both are bench guys and neither contribute enough to winning to get long term contracts. Landry should have been given 2 or 3 years at less money, but at least he can play 25-30 minutes and be effective. Pachulia isn't going to come close to averaging 20 minutes per game this season and he's being paid as if he's a 6th or 7th man who can provide very good production off of the bench. To make it worse, you could easily make the argument that Udoh would produce more than Zaza in limited minutes. Zazas contract is the worst of the offseason.

Ellis should excel in an offence with Jose and Dirk, but the team isn't going to come close to winning 50 games. He'll be worth the contract production wise, but not winning wise.

The Smith experiment at SF should end pretty quickly, and the Pistons will need to figure out their rotation even quicker in terms of who's going to come off the bench and the minute distribution. He'll be worth his contract though if they can play him at PF and keep him close to the basket.

Jefferson is going to put up empty stats on a bad team, but Charlotte will improve record wise. Then again theres nowhere to go but up. One good point BR made was that he's a halfcourt bigman playing with an uptempo team, but they also need to score in the halfcourt too so I dont think it's that bad of a move. They cant continue playing young players forever.

My list would be:

1. Zaza
2. Calderon
3. Splitter
4. Landry
5. Jefferson

Calderon is 2nd because he's on a 4 year contract as a fringe starter already, plus he's 32 or 33 years old. He already cannot guard the most explosive position in basketball right now, and his contract is going to look worse in 1-2 years when the Mavs finally realize they cant get back to being a high seed in the West with him as their starting point because he gives up too much on defence.
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:34 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Carl Landry and Nikola Pekovic? I don't think they can be a bust. Landry is a great player off the bench and Peko is very solid.
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:40 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Ball Don't Lie View Post
Their reasoning with Anderson is perplexing, and very BR-esque. The Nets were already way over the cap, 4 million extra isn't going to hurt them, and as they mentioned, Anderson is a good insurance policy as a 5th guard.

Pekovic has already shown what he can do and has steadily improved every year, as they pointed out. Even if he's at his peak as they mentioned, he'll still be worth 5 years 60 million assuming he gives the same type of production inside and on the boards. BR picking apart his propensity to get easy baskets just shows how bad the website is. Him scoring 75% of his points from 3 feet and in is a good thing, as he's not going to be relied upon to create offence for Minnesota on regular postups that often.

The others make sense though. Landry and Pachulia received the worst contracts of the offseason IMO, because both are bench guys and neither contribute enough to winning to get long term contracts. Landry should have been given 2 or 3 years at less money, but at least he can play 25-30 minutes and be effective. Pachulia isn't going to come close to averaging 20 minutes per game this season and he's being paid as if he's a 6th or 7th man who can provide very good production off of the bench. To make it worse, you could easily make the argument that Udoh would produce more than Zaza in limited minutes. Zazas contract is the worst of the offseason.

Ellis should excel in an offence with Jose and Dirk, but the team isn't going to come close to winning 50 games. He'll be worth the contract production wise, but not winning wise.

The Smith experiment at SF should end pretty quickly, and the Pistons will need to figure out their rotation even quicker in terms of who's going to come off the bench and the minute distribution. He'll be worth his contract though if they can play him at PF and keep him close to the basket.

Jefferson is going to put up empty stats on a bad team, but Charlotte will improve record wise. Then again theres nowhere to go but up. One good point BR made was that he's a halfcourt bigman playing with an uptempo team, but they also need to score in the halfcourt too so I dont think it's that bad of a move. They cant continue playing young players forever.

My list would be:

1. Zaza
2. Calderon
3. Splitter
4. Landry
5. Jefferson

Calderon is 2nd because he's on a 4 year contract as a fringe starter already, plus he's 32 or 33 years old. He already cannot guard the most explosive position in basketball right now, and his contract is going to look worse in 1-2 years when the Mavs finally realize they cant get back to being a high seed in the West with him as their starting point because he gives up too much on defence.
Do not agree with the JC comment. He is 31, his contract ends at 35. Ye his defense isnt great, but age wont affect how he runs his offense. He has the shot and passing ability to not slow down, barring injuries. I think he will still be as productive in 4 years time
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:47 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Do not agree with the JC comment. He is 31, his contract ends at 35. Ye his defense isnt great, but age wont affect how he runs his offense. He has the shot and passing ability to not slow down, barring injuries. I think he will still be as productive in 4 years time
JC is 32 in two weeks. I think the last two years of his deal will be very interesting. They absolutely over payed for him. Looks like no bigger names wanted to go to Dallas besides Ellis I suppose. If he can stay healthy he'll continue putting up empty stat lines and shoot well while not shooting much but can he stay relatively healthy for 4yrs? That seems unlikely.
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Old 09-12-2013, 02:59 PM   #8 (permalink)
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JC is 32 in two weeks. I think the last two years of his deal will be very interesting. They absolutely over payed for him. Looks like no bigger names wanted to go to Dallas besides Ellis I suppose. If he can stay healthy he'll continue putting up empty stat lines and shoot well while not shooting much but can he stay relatively healthy for 4yrs? That seems unlikely.
Yup, like I said, if he stays healthy, the contract would be fine. Not the best, but definitely not second worst
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Old 09-12-2013, 03:15 PM   #9 (permalink)
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I honestly don't think 5 mil per is that bad for Pachulia. He's a character/culture guy. Plays to win, not to make friends. I'm sure Larry Drew knew his importance the Hawks squad that has had a nice run of playoff appearances.

I don't like the Splitter contract - but I think they paid him on the expectation that he'll be mildly better than last year, and he will be - so not a bust.

Al Jefferson I can see on this list because he is expected to be a star.

I think Monta & Jose could be 'busts' in Dallas. Monta struggles at times, and Jose will be in a new role surrounded by other vets and is getting paid handsomely, regardless, I wouldn't bet on either being busts.

Carl Landry is getting paid like a good role player. He's getting paid to do what he already does, not to do more. He's not a bust. Like Pachulia.

Pekovic - expectations come with $12MMper - but I don't think he'll underperform.

Josh Smith - expectations to not only perform, but be somewhat of a leader and maybe the best player on the team. Suspect history with attitude and behaviour. Prime bust candidate.

Dwight Howard - Ditto. I'm not sure he'll be a bust though - I think he'll be very motivated to prove people wrong...but the last few years definitely suggest he might be the biggest bust of them all.

My list;

Josh Smith
Andrew Bynum
Chase Budinger

Wildcard - Dwight Howard
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Old 09-12-2013, 03:35 PM   #10 (permalink)
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I honestly don't think 5 mil per is that bad for Pachulia. He's a character/culture guy. Plays to win, not to make friends. I'm sure Larry Drew knew his importance the Hawks squad that has had a nice run of playoff appearances.
With the new salary cap, there's no way a player like Pachulia, who wont be playing more than 15 mpg due to Sanders rise as a starting center, and Hensons likely rise this year, is worth 5 million a year, let alone for 3 years. This isn't the 2000's anymore when bench role players in a 8th/9th man role are getting 3-4 year deals at 4-5 million per. The market has changed, where players like Pachulia, a solid role player who can give good production in limited minutes off of the bench, are now getting much shorter contracts at less money.

Look at Dalembert, who got 2 years, 8 million with Dallas, with the 2nd year only having a 2 million guarantee. Kaman got the minimum with LAL. Greg Stiemsma got 1 year, 2.7 million. To put things into perspective, a much younger, more productive JJ Hickson, who averaged a double double last season, is making 1 million less than Pachulia on the same amount of years, and is going to be playing a much larger role and producing at a much higher level than Pachulia in the next 3 years.

Any way you look at that deal, it's awful. Not only because the market dictates it's awful, but because MIL already had enough big men on their roster for next season with Henson and Udoh.
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Old 09-12-2013, 03:40 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I honestly don't think 5 mil per is that bad for Pachulia. He's a character/culture guy. Plays to win, not to make friends. I'm sure Larry Drew knew his importance the Hawks squad that has had a nice run of playoff appearances.

I don't like the Splitter contract - but I think they paid him on the expectation that he'll be mildly better than last year, and he will be - so not a bust.

Al Jefferson I can see on this list because he is expected to be a star.

I think Monta & Jose could be 'busts' in Dallas. Monta struggles at times, and Jose will be in a new role surrounded by other vets and is getting paid handsomely, regardless, I wouldn't bet on either being busts.

Carl Landry is getting paid like a good role player. He's getting paid to do what he already does, not to do more. He's not a bust. Like Pachulia.

Pekovic - expectations come with $12MMper - but I don't think he'll underperform.

Josh Smith - expectations to not only perform, but be somewhat of a leader and maybe the best player on the team. Suspect history with attitude and behaviour. Prime bust candidate.

Dwight Howard - Ditto. I'm not sure he'll be a bust though - I think he'll be very motivated to prove people wrong...but the last few years definitely suggest he might be the biggest bust of them all.

My list;

Josh Smith
Andrew Bynum

Chase Budinger

Wildcard - Dwight Howard
I don't think Bynum's contract is bad at all. And Smith's seams about right too.

I'd say:

Splitter
Calderon
Jeferson
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Old 09-12-2013, 04:13 PM   #12 (permalink)
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With the new salary cap, there's no way a player like Pachulia, who wont be playing more than 15 mpg due to Sanders rise as a starting center, and Hensons likely rise this year, is worth 5 million a year, let alone for 3 years. This isn't the 2000's anymore when bench role players in a 8th/9th man role are getting 3-4 year deals at 4-5 million per. The market has changed, where players like Pachulia, a solid role player who can give good production in limited minutes off of the bench, are now getting much shorter contracts at less money.

Look at Dalembert, who got 2 years, 8 million with Dallas, with the 2nd year only having a 2 million guarantee. Kaman got the minimum with LAL. Greg Stiemsma got 1 year, 2.7 million. To put things into perspective, a much younger, more productive JJ Hickson, who averaged a double double last season, is making 1 million less than Pachulia on the same amount of years, and is going to be playing a much larger role and producing at a much higher level than Pachulia in the next 3 years.

Any way you look at that deal, it's awful. Not only because the market dictates it's awful, but because MIL already had enough big men on their roster for next season with Henson and Udoh.
Dalembert isn't as good as Pachulia, Steisma is Steisma. JJ Hickson...hasn't really proved anything. Pachulia might grab no rebounds and score no points, bu the's the type of player who is integral to establishing a winning culture. His team will be down 20 and he'll go on the court and mix it up with a superstar. He doesn't appreciate losing.

Regardless - I don't think Milwaukee is paying him more money to do anything more than what he did in Atlanta. So maybe it's a bad contract, but we're not talking bad contracts, were' talking about busts which he will not be since the expectations placed on him will be to do exactly what he's done his entire career. Get rebounds and mix it up.


Bynum is getting paid 12mil with very questionable character, coming off of a year where he didn't play any basketball. And he's playing with a group of young guys, not a group of veterans led by the zen master trying to keep his attitude in check. Last I remember of Bynum he was jacking threes and was a walkign joke.

Detroit needs Josh Smith to be a leader, and they're paying him as such. But with Al Horford and Zaza, he never really had to lead before. It's a new role. He could put up nice stats and still bust since he'll be the first person everybody looks at if the team busts.

Last edited by bjjs; 09-12-2013 at 04:15 PM.
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Old 09-12-2013, 05:03 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Sorry in the new NBA 5mil/yr for Pachulia is too much.
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Old 09-12-2013, 05:03 PM   #14 (permalink)
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With the new salary cap, there's no way a player like Pachulia, who wont be playing more than 15 mpg due to Sanders rise as a starting center, and Hensons likely rise this year, is worth 5 million a year, let alone for 3 years. This isn't the 2000's anymore when bench role players in a 8th/9th man role are getting 3-4 year deals at 4-5 million per. The market has changed, where players like Pachulia, a solid role player who can give good production in limited minutes off of the bench, are now getting much shorter contracts at less money.

Look at Dalembert, who got 2 years, 8 million with Dallas, with the 2nd year only having a 2 million guarantee. Kaman got the minimum with LAL. Greg Stiemsma got 1 year, 2.7 million. To put things into perspective, a much younger, more productive JJ Hickson, who averaged a double double last season, is making 1 million less than Pachulia on the same amount of years, and is going to be playing a much larger role and producing at a much higher level than Pachulia in the next 3 years.

Any way you look at that deal, it's awful. Not only because the market dictates it's awful, but because MIL already had enough big men on their roster for next season with Henson and Udoh.
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Old 09-21-2013, 05:00 PM   #15 (permalink)
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I predict he's a bigger bust than Ellis tbh. Detroit's team looks so disjointed to me. No decent wings, Smith being played in the wrong role and Jennings chucking 18-20 shots per game. That team is a disaster imo.
Agreed. OTOH, if they could pull a Jennings and JSmith for Rondo and Wallace deal at the deadline, they would be looking pretty darn good.
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Old 09-22-2013, 01:54 AM   #16 (permalink)
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IT'S A BLEACHER REPORT ARTICLE. END OF STORY.
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Old 06-22-2014, 03:30 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by bjjs View Post
I honestly don't think 5 mil per is that bad for Pachulia. He's a character/culture guy. Plays to win, not to make friends. I'm sure Larry Drew knew his importance the Hawks squad that has had a nice run of playoff appearances.

I don't like the Splitter contract - but I think they paid him on the expectation that he'll be mildly better than last year, and he will be - so not a bust.

Al Jefferson I can see on this list because he is expected to be a star.

I think Monta & Jose could be 'busts' in Dallas. Monta struggles at times, and Jose will be in a new role surrounded by other vets and is getting paid handsomely, regardless, I wouldn't bet on either being busts.

Carl Landry is getting paid like a good role player. He's getting paid to do what he already does, not to do more. He's not a bust. Like Pachulia.

Pekovic - expectations come with $12MMper - but I don't think he'll underperform.

Josh Smith - expectations to not only perform, but be somewhat of a leader and maybe the best player on the team. Suspect history with attitude and behaviour. Prime bust candidate.

Dwight Howard - Ditto. I'm not sure he'll be a bust though - I think he'll be very motivated to prove people wrong...but the last few years definitely suggest he might be the biggest bust of them all.

My list;

Josh Smith
Andrew Bynum
Chase Budinger

Wildcard - Dwight Howard
Nailed it. Minus the WC.
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