X-Factor? - Page 3
Old 07-07-2008, 08:05 PM   #41 (permalink)
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skill development is totally dependent on mental development. i don't see anyone talking about jamario jumping higher, or running faster. people are talking about jamario improving his shooting technique, and dribbling skills. will a NBA coach make a difference, i believe so, i noticed it throughout the season.

as for four year seniors, the nba general managers makes that mistake every season. up-side doesn't mean anything, especially when you believe that someone has shown all they have at 21-22 years old. if that's the case, why or how could you possibly defend bargs?
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Old 07-07-2008, 08:24 PM   #42 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Adequate Swag View Post
I totally disagree.

Moon has less potential to develop than your average sophmore, given that he is already 28 freakin years old. His skills are raw because in a lot of cases they're just not there. The guy has been a pro ball player for the last 6 or 7 years, why would you think all of a sudden he's going to develop a consistent outside jump shot or above average ball handling skills?

And as for spending most of his career looking for work...what do you think is the best way to find that work? Improving your skills.

Moon's skills are basically as good as they are going to get. It's like when you hear of 4 year seniors stock slipping in the draft because they don't have any more upside. Once a player reach a certain point in his career, the skills are what they are, and any improvement is going to come from mental improvements and a better understanding of the game.

Jamario's play was a nice surprise last year, but to expect him to develop the same way your average rookie would is very, very optimistic.
we'll see - I have a lot of faith in him, as I do in Bargnani.
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Old 07-08-2008, 09:46 AM   #43 (permalink)
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I have a lot of faith in him as well

I'm just not expecting great strides from a 28 year old rookie. Everything we're getting out of him already is a bonus.
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Old 07-08-2008, 09:52 AM   #44 (permalink)
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as for four year seniors, the nba general managers makes that mistake every season. up-side doesn't mean anything, especially when you believe that someone has shown all they have at 21-22 years old. if that's the case, why or how could you possibly defend bargs?
If it was such a mistake, do you really think guys in high pressure jobs making millions of dollars would still do it every year?

I mean, I'm not a GM. You most likely aren't either. For either of us to suggest that the way NBA GM's in general draft players is a mistake is a bit egotistic don't you think?

I mean, they have huge staffs scouting these kids and are allegedly some of the best basketball minds out there. So excuse me if I side with history on this one, and not what you consider a constantly repeating mistake by every NBA GM.

Up side means everything. You can listen to Jay Bilas speak one sentence at the draft and figure that out.
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Old 07-09-2008, 10:09 AM   #45 (permalink)
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how exactly does history side with you? every each year seniors fall in the draft and prove to better players then some of the high potential prospects selected before them. i guess that's very egoistical to point out something that has been happening, and talked about for years.
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Old 07-09-2008, 11:16 AM   #46 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by TuggleBled View Post
how exactly does history side with you? every each year seniors fall in the draft and prove to better players then some of the high potential prospects selected before them. i guess that's very egoistical to point out something that has been happening, and talked about for years.
History sides with me because NBA GM's and scouts...THE GUYS WHO ARE PAID MILLIONS TO EVALUATE AND SELECT TALENT FOR A LIVING, NOT TALK ABOUT IT ON MESSAGE BOARDS...continue to pick these high potential players over seniors. Every year.

There was one senior selected in the lottery this year, and he was considered a reach. Seniors and older players have less upside. There are a variety of reasons for it, and you pointed out a great one yourself, that by playing 4 years of college their games are open to be further analyzed. But the bottom line is if these guys had a tremendous upside they wouldn't have been in college for 4 years.

Not only did Moon play 4 years in college, he played 6 or 7 in the minor leagues. Had there been great potential for improvement there, an NBA team would have sniped him prior to him being 28 years old.

Look, I LOVE Moon. Seriously...I love him as a personality, and I think what he brings to the team on the court is invaluable. I'm just saying that anyone expecting massive improvements from him, especially statistically, are likely going to be dissapointed.

And to suggest that somehow you are a better evaluator of talent than NBA GM's and scouts in general, who consistently make upside picks over safer ones, is absolutely egotistical, any way you slice it. Criticizing a particular pick or a particular personnel move is one thing (I will continue to shit on the Hoffa pick from my deathbed) but insinuating that the way NBA teams draft in general is incorrect? You're implying that you know better than the average NBA GM. That's massively egotistical.

Edit: I just re-read this and it comes off as a bit of an attack, and I didn't mean it that way. From what I've seen of you Tuggle, you're plenty knowledgeable and know your shit. I just take issue with the fact that you are suggesting the NBA Drafting process as it relates to GM's and scouts is flawed. Plenty share your opinion though, and realistically it is a case by case basis. So again, I apologize if I came off as insulting. I still stand behind my original point on Moon though.

Last edited by Adequate Swag; 07-09-2008 at 11:38 AM.
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Old 07-09-2008, 11:26 AM   #47 (permalink)
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its true Swag...

i dont see Moon jumping to 15 ppgs 9-10 rbounds

he may have a marginal improvement but its not logical to go even further and say he is gonna knock of us outta our shoes this year...

if he does ill eat my words but dont expect anything greater then his perfomance this year...
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Old 07-09-2008, 11:29 AM   #48 (permalink)
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Hell no is Moon getting 7 ppg more than last season this year. That would be almost impossible for him. I could see him getting something like 10 ppg and maybe 7.5 rebs or something.
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Old 07-09-2008, 11:52 AM   #49 (permalink)
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As I've said before, Moon's improvement shouldn't be judged statistically.

If he can prove himself to be a passable threat from outside and demand some defensive attention, then he'll have done quite well for himself.
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Old 07-09-2008, 11:56 AM   #50 (permalink)
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I would argue that there are exceptions to every rule however regarding seniors or college veterans.

One could simply look at last year's rookie of the year in Brandon Roy; he was touted as an automatic ROY candidate because of his experience. Has he become the best player in that draft?

Shane Battier is another example of a good 4 yr. senior. Hell, go through the 80s and you can find a lot of VERY good 4 yr. seniors.

The point is that when you draft a senior you know what you are getting almost immediately and they learn a lot quicker. Add in a polished maturity level and you have a good recipe for success at the NBA level. College Freshman and Sophs however, yes they can have a ton of more upside, however many times it depends on their maturity level and how they adapt to the NBA. Many succeed, however, there is an extensive list of many who fail in that transition and that's why I think that guys with 3-4 year college experience are "safer" picks. Alot of this of course depends on the team choosing as well.

And to say that Moon won't up his averages. Hmmm, I don't neccessarily agree that he won't. The one thing that did hold his averages last season at a mediocre level, was that he really didn't drive all that often. If he takes it to the rim with a greater consistency and makes team respect his shot (and with shooting drills this can easily happen) then I think his averages will go up markedly. Last season he relied too much on a perimeter oriented game. Set him up closer to the basket and I think he actually will flourish because when he does decide to attack, he's the best player we've had in Toronto to do that since, dare I say it, Vince Carter.

And plus, with the added focus the "big" three are going to get, Moon could easily step in there and average 13-14 ppg.
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