With or Without You - How Does This Core Fit Together? - Page 3
Old 08-02-2013, 03:34 PM   #41 (permalink)
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Curious, DD was supposed to be playing better during the 2nd half as well, I'm curious to find out if that is true or not. Observations say yes but eyes can't always be trustworthy.
Hey, why not?

Player - ORTG impact from DD 1st Half - DRTG impact from DD 1st Half - Net RTG impact from DD 1st Half
Amir: -3.5 / -1.9 / -1.6
Lowry: -14.5 / +6.3 / -20.8
JV: +8.8 / -2.0 / +10.8

Player - ORTG impact from DD 2nd Half - DRTG impact from DD 2nd Half - Net RTG impact from DD 2nd Half
Amir: -1.1 / -10.8 / +9.7
Lowry: -6.8 / -22.7 / +15.9
JV: -7.6 / -6.2 / -1.4

Better, but still mixed. Note though, that with the Lowry stats there in the 2nd half, almost all of his minutes were with DeMar - the "Without" sample is really small, so those big positive numbers are probably inflated. Still, it won't change a negative to a positive - he did improve. The crazy -20 impact on Lowry from the first half appears to be real - not nearly so much of a small sample size there.

That's the first of these cases where the With or Without has severely outweighed the other. This is partially because DeMar just plays so many freaking minutes - he's just in every lineup all the time. Over a full season there's a decent bit of WOWY for him, especially with changing lineups, but over the half season there just isn't the data. Note that the JV and Amir numbers should be accurate, as he had a more even With/Without split like we were seeing for most of the prior cases.
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Old 08-02-2013, 03:36 PM   #42 (permalink)
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Question, since the site is by date, can't one just pull each individual's data on the day they play each other? Not the best approach but one could extrapolate a rudimentary projection, by position of how opposing players are effective against each other. Like comparing Bosh to KG when they play against each other. Again it would be rudimentary as there are switch offs and injuries what not but with some extra 'digging' those causalities to the projection could be reduced if not eliminated.
Sure, but it sounds like I'd have to go through each game individually... Which would take forever, and would still be rudimentary at best.
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Old 08-02-2013, 03:51 PM   #43 (permalink)
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Sure, but it sounds like I'd have to go through each game individually... Which would take forever, and would still be rudimentary at best.
Yeah, I was thinking that as I was typing, really would only work against player vs player since they would only play a few times against each other each season. Other than that it would be an arduous task to say the least.

Thanks for the DD numbers. They are all over, not sure what to make of the first half to the second with JV but that might change with the improved play of each (esp JV). His play with Lowry is a conundrum though but then he has spent a few years covering off for JC's lapses. Perhaps he just needs to relearn how to play defense with a PG and an SF that can play defense.

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Old 08-02-2013, 08:37 PM   #44 (permalink)
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Nice stuff. I'm stuck with really bad wifi in Leduc, Alberta, and kept getting a no connection message every time I tried to give a thumbs up.

I very much dislike individual stats concerning defense. This is very different, showing relationships across the game.

One note concerning Ed - he likely also looked very good with Amir. That's what my eyes thought.

My eyes also thought that Amir was capable of taking on a leadership role not unlike a guy like Ben Wallace, who was maybe the least talented on the Pistons, and yet they all said it was his team. If Toronto puts together a true defensive identity, I think much of that will be owed to Amir. There was a reason Casey was able to stick his neck out and say Amir was his favorite player when Isiah asked that awkward question during Summer league.

Again - nice stuff Dan.
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Old 08-02-2013, 09:37 PM   #45 (permalink)
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These are nice useful stats for looking back on the season and evaluating and measuring performance, but imo they're definitely limited when looking towards the future, as demonstrated by some of the large shifts in the numbers from one half of the year to the next (ie - Daye's stats from Detroit to Memphis, and Lowry from one half to another). I would say that the more solid a team (low player turnover, clear role definition), the more useful this type of analysis would be; SA;Miami etc. Whereas in a roller coaster season like the Raptors had last year, it is hard to draw really solid conclusions. I think it's impossible to really develop quality forward thinking statistics for basketball except when it comes from player/team tendencies, ie.) Kobe likes to shoot to go left 45% of the time, and he likes to pull up for the jumper 70% of the time he goes left. Dan how many excel sheets of basketball data do you have? I would like to see Anderson's impact on the starting lineup prior to Gay joining the team.

Last edited by bjjs; 08-02-2013 at 09:40 PM.
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Old 08-02-2013, 11:03 PM   #46 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by LX View Post
Nice stuff. I'm stuck with really bad wifi in Leduc, Alberta, and kept getting a no connection message every time I tried to give a thumbs up.

I very much dislike individual stats concerning defense. This is very different, showing relationships across the game.

One note concerning Ed - he likely also looked very good with Amir. That's what my eyes thought.

My eyes also thought that Amir was capable of taking on a leadership role not unlike a guy like Ben Wallace, who was maybe the least talented on the Pistons, and yet they all said it was his team. If Toronto puts together a true defensive identity, I think much of that will be owed to Amir. There was a reason Casey was able to stick his neck out and say Amir was his favorite player when Isiah asked that awkward question during Summer league.

Again - nice stuff Dan.
Regarding Ed and Amir, they definitely were good together. Amir was always finding Ed for easy buckets.
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Old 08-03-2013, 02:44 AM   #47 (permalink)
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DD maybe is suitable as a 6th man. He would destroy opposing benches with his iso post plays that's for sure. I agree with most of these stats, pretty cool stuff!
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Old 08-03-2013, 03:56 AM   #48 (permalink)
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'.Saw Amir tonight at Jacobs..I scream "you the best Amir". I get a wave... but was mostly meaning this thread. Hes always awesome but this is in my head.

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Old 08-03-2013, 07:07 AM   #49 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by LX View Post
Nice stuff. I'm stuck with really bad wifi in Leduc, Alberta, and kept getting a no connection message every time I tried to give a thumbs up.

I very much dislike individual stats concerning defense. This is very different, showing relationships across the game.

One note concerning Ed - he likely also looked very good with Amir. That's what my eyes thought.

My eyes also thought that Amir was capable of taking on a leadership role not unlike a guy like Ben Wallace, who was maybe the least talented on the Pistons, and yet they all said it was his team. If Toronto puts together a true defensive identity, I think much of that will be owed to Amir. There was a reason Casey was able to stick his neck out and say Amir was his favorite player when Isiah asked that awkward question during Summer league.

Again - nice stuff Dan.
I can look at Ed. I expect to find what you said is true.
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Old 08-03-2013, 07:10 AM   #50 (permalink)
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These are nice useful stats for looking back on the season and evaluating and measuring performance, but imo they're definitely limited when looking towards the future, as demonstrated by some of the large shifts in the numbers from one half of the year to the next (ie - Daye's stats from Detroit to Memphis, and Lowry from one half to another). I would say that the more solid a team (low player turnover, clear role definition), the more useful this type of analysis would be; SA;Miami etc. Whereas in a roller coaster season like the Raptors had last year, it is hard to draw really solid conclusions. I think it's impossible to really develop quality forward thinking statistics for basketball except when it comes from player/team tendencies, ie.) Kobe likes to shoot to go left 45% of the time, and he likes to pull up for the jumper 70% of the time he goes left. Dan how many excel sheets of basketball data do you have? I would like to see Anderson's impact on the starting lineup prior to Gay joining the team.
There are certainly limits. But what these stats are describing is fit, rather than performance. So even with the changes from first half to second half, I think we can all agree that there were some big changes in terms of usage, team play, style, effort from the first half to the second, so I don't see that as detrimental to the conclusions being drawn.

Anderson I can do as well. I'm heading up to the trailer for the weekend, so I'll update with any requests on Tuesday.
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Old 08-06-2013, 09:04 AM   #51 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by LX View Post
Nice stuff. I'm stuck with really bad wifi in Leduc, Alberta, and kept getting a no connection message every time I tried to give a thumbs up.

I very much dislike individual stats concerning defense. This is very different, showing relationships across the game.

One note concerning Ed - he likely also looked very good with Amir. That's what my eyes thought.

My eyes also thought that Amir was capable of taking on a leadership role not unlike a guy like Ben Wallace, who was maybe the least talented on the Pistons, and yet they all said it was his team. If Toronto puts together a true defensive identity, I think much of that will be owed to Amir. There was a reason Casey was able to stick his neck out and say Amir was his favorite player when Isiah asked that awkward question during Summer league.

Again - nice stuff Dan.
Ed did look good with Amir. Amir had a huge positive impact on Ed.

Player - ORTG impact from Amir - DRTG impact from Amir - Net RTG impact from Amir
ED: +9.0 / -8.8 / +17.8

But Ed's impact on Amir? (And others?)

Player - ORTG impact from Davis - DRTG impact from Davis - Net RTG impact from Davis
DD: +0.7 / +0.8 / -0.1
Amir: -1.1 / +0.0 / -1.1
Lowry: -0.9 / +5.5 / -6.4
JV: -3.4 / -1.3 / -2.2

So, didn't really help anyone, and really didn't mesh with Lowry. And his on-off's should be helped by the facts that a) he played most of his minutes with Amir (over half of them), and b) his subs were guys like Bargs and Gray and early season Val.

He also had some serious issues playing with Ross - in fact, if you look at how terrible Ross performed on the year, a lot seems to be attributed to his time on the court with Davis. The two of them combined for 350 minutes of -16 points per 100 possessions basketball. And if you look at the 882 minutes Ross played without Davis, he actually posted a positive plus-minus (+2.7 net RTG) - rather than a net negative for his full year (-2.8 net RTG).
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Old 08-06-2013, 10:12 AM   #52 (permalink)
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There are certainly limits. But what these stats are describing is fit, rather than performance. So even with the changes from first half to second half, I think we can all agree that there were some big changes in terms of usage, team play, style, effort from the first half to the second, so I don't see that as detrimental to the conclusions being drawn.

Anderson I can do as well. I'm heading up to the trailer for the weekend, so I'll update with any requests on Tuesday.
Ugh. I knew I hated Anderson for a reason.

Player - ORTG impact from AA - DRTG impact from AA - Net RTG impact from AA
DD: -1.0 / +4.5 / -5.5
Amir: +2.1 / +4.7 / -2.6
Lowry: +2.5 / +7.7 / -5.2
JV: -2.0 / +12.1 / -14.1
Gay: -6.0 / +10.8 / -16.8

Yuck yuck yuck. So glad he's gone. For all the talk of his vaunted defense, he hurt every one of his teammates heavily on the defensive end. Keep in mind that his subs are the typically not stellar defensively DD and Ross, as well as some Fields and Gay (who are good defensively, but not exactly Iguodala level shutdown guys).

Ugh.
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Old 08-06-2013, 11:25 AM   #53 (permalink)
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Ugh. I knew I hated Anderson for a reason.

Player - ORTG impact from AA - DRTG impact from AA - Net RTG impact from AA
DD: -1.0 / +4.5 / -5.5
Amir: +2.1 / +4.7 / -2.6
Lowry: +2.5 / +7.7 / -5.2
JV: -2.0 / +12.1 / -14.1
Gay: -6.0 / +10.8 / -16.8

Yuck yuck yuck. So glad he's gone. For all the talk of his vaunted defense, he hurt every one of his teammates heavily on the defensive end. Keep in mind that his subs are the typically not stellar defensively DD and Ross, as well as some Fields and Gay (who are good defensively, but not exactly Iguodala level shutdown guys).

Ugh.
But can you calculate it prior to Gay arriving including jose etc.?
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Old 08-06-2013, 12:32 PM   #54 (permalink)
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Ed did look good with Amir. Amir had a huge positive impact on Ed.

Player - ORTG impact from Amir - DRTG impact from Amir - Net RTG impact from Amir
ED: +9.0 / -8.8 / +17.8

But Ed's impact on Amir? (And others?)

Player - ORTG impact from Davis - DRTG impact from Davis - Net RTG impact from Davis
DD: +0.7 / +0.8 / -0.1
Amir: -1.1 / +0.0 / -1.1
Lowry: -0.9 / +5.5 / -6.4
JV: -3.4 / -1.3 / -2.2

So, didn't really help anyone, and really didn't mesh with Lowry. And his on-off's should be helped by the facts that a) he played most of his minutes with Amir (over half of them), and b) his subs were guys like Bargs and Gray and early season Val.

He also had some serious issues playing with Ross - in fact, if you look at how terrible Ross performed on the year, a lot seems to be attributed to his time on the court with Davis. The two of them combined for 350 minutes of -16 points per 100 possessions basketball. And if you look at the 882 minutes Ross played without Davis, he actually posted a positive plus-minus (+2.7 net RTG) - rather than a net negative for his full year (-2.8 net RTG).
I find this particular point of serious interest to me. Not only is it giving some interesting insight on Ed but it gives me some hope that Ross is a "+" producer as a norm.
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Old 08-06-2013, 12:34 PM   #55 (permalink)
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But can you calculate it prior to Gay arriving including jose etc.?
You definitely can but I believe DanH would have to go through game by game to do that. Arduous to say the least but could be done.
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Old 08-06-2013, 12:37 PM   #56 (permalink)
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You definitely can but I believe DanH would have to go through game by game to do that. Arduous to say the least but could be done.
I think he has the game by game data in a spreadsheet - it's a simple flick of the fingers.
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Old 08-06-2013, 12:51 PM   #57 (permalink)
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I think he has the game by game data in a spreadsheet - it's a simple flick of the fingers.
It's not quite a simple flick of the fingers. But I can filter out prior to the Gay trade.

As a quick check, he seems to have some very impressive positive impact numbers for the first half, but there are some small sample sizes with our core pieces. Still, he played well with them early when he was hot, just was terrible in the second half when he didn't really fit what we were doing anymore (and forgot how to shoot).
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Old 08-06-2013, 04:14 PM   #58 (permalink)
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It's not quite a simple flick of the fingers. But I can filter out prior to the Gay trade.

As a quick check, he seems to have some very impressive positive impact numbers for the first half, but there are some small sample sizes with our core pieces. Still, he played well with them early when he was hot, just was terrible in the second half when he didn't really fit what we were doing anymore (and forgot how to shoot).
Why bother? We aren't about to bring back the components of the team pre the Gay trade, so even if he was better then, we'd still be a worse team.
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Old 08-06-2013, 09:02 PM   #59 (permalink)
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It's not quite a simple flick of the fingers. But I can filter out prior to the Gay trade.

As a quick check, he seems to have some very impressive positive impact numbers for the first half, but there are some small sample sizes with our core pieces. Still, he played well with them early when he was hot, just was terrible in the second half when he didn't really fit what we were doing anymore (and forgot how to shoot).
He was having a great year before the Gay acquisition. That impacted his role more than anybody else on the team.
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Old 08-06-2013, 10:03 PM   #60 (permalink)
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He was having a great year before the Gay acquisition. That impacted his role more than anybody else on the team.
Well, he was effective in small minutes with our core. But he played most of his minutes with our bench, mst of whom he had negative impacts on. Hard to say how much positive impact he could have had, but his game certainly fell off in the second half (dramatically).
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