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-   -   why Toronto will be a 6th seed with 47 wins (http://www.raptorsforum.com/f/f5/why-toronto-will-6th-seed-47-wins-12194.html)

numb3r_cruncher 12-13-2009 02:34 AM

why Toronto will be a 6th seed with 47 wins
 
hi Raptor fans. Toronto has had the most brutal schedule in the entire NBA. I run boxscorebasketball.com and have noticed a HUGE discrepancy regarding the level of difficulty that the Raptors have had at the start of this season.

I do additional analysis - not only strength of schedule, but adjusted Home/road strength of schedule. You'll see here, by considering every team's opponents home/road records based on where the games are played, Toronto has had the MOST DIFFICULT schedule by far:
http://www.boxscorebasketball.com/strength.htm
they are almost 2 standard deviations from the mean in games played so far. More interesting, is when comparing the difference between opponents WL records (home/road) of Toronto has played vs. remaining games, they also have the greatest difference (between difficulty of games remaining to games played):
http://www.boxscorebasketball.com/strength.htm#dif

I also have them projected to be a 6th seed at 47-35 (much better than their current pace of finishing 33-48:
http://www.boxscorebasketball.com/projected.htm


They also fall #15 on the season, even though they are 10-15.
http://www.boxscorebasketball.com/topten.htm

mark my word: they will make the playoffs. come back to this thread in March when the front office is printing playoff tickets.

ps-I was so high on Calderon and took him WAY EARLY in my fantasy draft (ahead of Billups). What is up with that free throw % tank job? Ugh!

Torontosaurus 12-13-2009 03:27 AM

I don't know about 6th seed, but I'm not sure it will be as bad as everyone on here thinks right now. we haven't even played Jersey once yet..

Ligeia 12-13-2009 05:08 AM

I'm not so sure about the 6th seed part, but they certainly have a much, much easier schedule coming in the future. They still get to play NJ, NY, and Philly several times this year. :)

RaptorizedChristian 12-13-2009 05:10 AM

Have you done this at roughly the same time in the season for previous seasons? If so, how close were the final standings to your projections?

gnarl 12-13-2009 05:19 AM

though this may be true, but this is the raptors, and quoting triano, "if they have a couple of lapses", winnable games may be more difficult than we think. This is the NBA, anything can happen. I'm not counting the Raptors out, but I'm just saying don't high such high hopes on them just because our schedule has been the toughest in this early season.

CB4Real 12-13-2009 09:03 AM

hopefully...ur right

nathanapes 12-13-2009 10:18 AM

Does it matter if we make 6th. This will be the same team next year. If Bosh opts to stay, how can we improve w/o money to sign anybody. He doesn't have time this, he's gone. Face the facts.

Superjudge 12-13-2009 11:41 AM

toronto is terrible.

All New Jersey will do is break thier losing streak here in torotno

LX 12-13-2009 01:22 PM

Why, when this team was truly terrible, were people so quick to insist that they under-achieved terribly, even when playing .500? And now that they have much greater talent assembled, and are clearly under-achieving, it's so easy to suggest that they are just terrible?

They've played terrible, and they've played nearly great, and they've played everything inbetween. If they are just going to be defined as terrible, then something is drastically wrong somewhere.

jeffb 12-13-2009 01:42 PM

Which means we'd have to go 37-20 the rest of the way. :laughing1:

jj33 12-13-2009 06:08 PM

raptors choke against bad teams

CommunistCrunch 12-13-2009 06:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nathanapes (Post 290540)
Does it matter if we make 6th. This will be the same team next year. If Bosh opts to stay, how can we improve w/o money to sign anybody. He doesn't have time this, he's gone. Face the facts.

Bingo. We'll never be anything more than first round cannon fodder

rb 12-13-2009 07:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ligeia (Post 290528)
I'm not so sure about the 6th seed part, but they certainly have a much, much easier schedule coming in the future. They still get to play NJ, NY, and Philly several times this year. :)

+1. They play NJ and NY 8 times this season so that helps:) I just hope they dont finish 6th they won't have a chance against the top 3, personally I want them to finish either 4th or 5th.:yeah:

.40 Cal Flakes 12-13-2009 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bawari13 (Post 291023)
+1. They play NJ and NY 8 times this season so that helps:) I just hope they dont finish 6th they won't have a chance against the top 3, personally I want them to finish either 4th or 5th.:yeah:

There is no way they will finish 4th. 5th through 8th will be very close. Raps are only 2.5 games out of 5th seed, but have played 5 more games than Miami. Depending on who finishes 3rd and 4th in the East Atl/Cleveland I would want the Raps to finish 5th or 6th. Imo the raps would match up better against the Cavs. I would not want to see them play ATL. Can you say sweep? Either way I don't see 'em making it out of the first round at this point.

t-bag 12-13-2009 08:18 PM

As long as Shaq is healthy I think Cleveland is our dream 1st round matchup. Don't wanna put too much on it though. I recall routing for a Raps-Magic matchup a couple of years ago and we know how that went...

.40 Cal Flakes 12-13-2009 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by t-bag (Post 291057)
As long as Shaq is healthy I think Cleveland is our dream 1st round matchup. Don't wanna put too much on it though. I recall routing for a Raps-Magic matchup a couple of years ago and we know how that went...

Yup. The only thing that would worry me is the LBJ factor. His ability to take over a game and kicc it up a notch in the playoffs is scary. Still, i'd rather see the Dinos face the Cavs than Boston, Orl, or ATL.

t-bag 12-13-2009 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by .40 Cal Flakes (Post 291063)
Yup. The only thing that would worry me is the LBJ factor. His ability to take over a game and kicc it up a notch in the playoffs is scary. Still, i'd rather see the Dinos face the Cavs than Boston, Orl, or ATL.

Yeah haha. I don't want them to have to play the Cavs but I'd take the Cavs over those three as well. We'd have to let LBJ do his thing and hope the rest of his team can't step up. We would also need a big series from Bargs to help Bosh exploit the Cavs molasses front court. Shaq and Big Z are just too slow to guard them. A few more Bargs spin moves on LBJ wouldn't hurt either.


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