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-   -   Why I think Bargnani will be fine.... (http://www.raptorsforum.com/f/f5/why-i-think-bargnani-will-fine-941.html)

Claudius 02-26-2008 08:45 PM

Why I think Bargnani will be fine....
 
Now,

I know Andrea has takin' a lot of shit this season and hell even I want to kill him so I decided to to what I do best and that is research and to see if he really is having THAT bad of a campaign. So I decided to look into his numbers for the year on a month by month basis and I'll put up this table.

November

PPG 11.9
RBG 4.6
FG% .446
3pt% .412

December

PPG 5.3
RBG 2.1
FG% .296
3pt% .190

January

PPG 8.7
RBG 3.5
FG% .381
3pt% .371

February

PPG 14.2
RBG 4.2
FG% .423
3pt% .404

Now, I cannot explain the drop off from November to December. His minutes per game drop that month from 25 to 19 but still it does not warrant that large of a drop. However, since that "low" point his numbers have increased as evidenced by the month of January and February. So, statistically speaking he has improved as there can be no denial. The evidence is right there. So, I decided to look at other Centres in the league that are playing and what their numbers were in their second year.

Chris Kaman in his second year averaged 9.1 ppg and 6.7 rbg
Andris Biedrins averaged 3.8 ppg and 4.2 rbp
Arvydas Sabonis (at the age of 30) averaged 14.5 and 8.2 rbp
Toni Kukoc at the age of 25 averaged 15.7 and 10.4
Vlade Divac 11.1 ppg and 8.2 rbg
Zydrunas Ilgauskas (second full year) averaged 11.1 ppg and 5.4 rbg
Mehmet Okur 9.6 and 5.9 rbg

Now, I took this only as a sampling and as you can see I took the majority of them as European players who have all had success in the NBA. Now, Bargnani's season averages for this season so far are 10.2 and 3.8. If I remove the month of December from this equation and include the one game he played in October then his PPG aver is 13.7 and 3.9 rbg and those are not terrible numbers.

Now factor in that Bargnani is only 22 years old and has to play with the fact that he is the FIRST European player to ever be selected first overall and coupled with the fact that he is seen as an important cog of this offense he hasn't actually played that poorly in comparison to other Centre/Forward players. Also factor in that Bargnani has only shot 548 total shots.

Now, am I saying that Bargnani has not been disapointing? No. However, offensively speaking, he has played quite up to expectation and although he may not have demonstrated the immediate improvement of a Brandon Roy or a Rudy Gay it can be said that Bargnani is learning to play his position and as the last month has shown he has actually improved on his numbers.

I hope you enjoy this read. Maybe it has shown something, maybe it hasn't. But for me personally, I decided to do some research and see if I can find anything. And I think I may have but that's for everyone else to decide.

'trane 02-26-2008 08:58 PM

his averages are fine, it's his disappearing acts that have me puzzled.

'trane 02-26-2008 09:03 PM

also, you started 5 of 7 paragraphs with the word 'now'.

:dragonkid:

Claudius 02-26-2008 09:04 PM

His disappearing acts can be somewhat explained as well. His minutes have been quite inconsistent if you see them closer. It's a big factor why he "disappears".

Claudius 02-26-2008 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by coltrane (Post 13311)
also, you started 5 of 7 paragraphs with the word 'now'.

:dragonkid:

Dude, I've had like 4 hours of sleep since Saturday. Me write bad. :(

'trane 02-26-2008 09:06 PM

just being a dick...

:dragonkid:

alseaf 02-26-2008 09:16 PM

Looking solely on points scored to evaluate performance will result in a insufficient analysis, don't u think? the guy picks up quick and unnecessary fouls, forcing the coach to yank him, and then the game may be too close later to put his cold ass in, and that's how some nights he plays like 15 minutes. The ONLY reason we have such high expectations for Andrea is because he was drafted first in the draft. If he was drafted later, we'd b ok with him coming off the bench. We were ok with that last yeardue to his rookieness and look how well he played. Bottom line is, ofcourse he's young and could still potentially be great with solid coaching

pimpery 02-26-2008 09:17 PM

i said it in another thread earlier, but ill say it here, look at those fg%... thats disgraceful for a C. Hell its disgraceful for almost any1.

BballWatcher 02-26-2008 09:19 PM

Nice write-up.

Easy to forget he's 22 and learing to play a position that's new to him.

My biggest complaint about Bargnani is that he's utterly lost in the skill of defensive rebounding. He doesn't know how to box out properly, he gets pushed around, and he often genuinely looks like he doesn't know where the ball is going to go when it hits the rim. He doesn't have instincts for rebounds. I hope this can somehow be fixed. Honestly, rebounding is not that difficult!!!

As for FG% pipery - yeah it is bad and it really needs to go up soon. Still, it's at the very least understandable based on how far from the basket he plays.

He has been clanking a lot of shots that are good shots but just don't go down for him this year. Much more than last season. Lately, more and more shots are going in. He just need to keep up the confidence. Bargnani IMO is nowhere near as good a player as he was last season in the final couple of months before the appendectomy. Not as agressive, much less accurate from the field, and often more passive.

moremilk 02-26-2008 09:42 PM

Yeah, Andreea's shooting numbers are disgraceful. I mean, look at Okur, he's shooting the lights out at 42% from the field and 35% from 3pt ... We all know that Bargnani is not a back to the basket kind of player right now. Complaining about his current shooting percentages is just hypocritical. Of course he's shooting 40% when all his shots are long Js or 3 pointers. Is that a good thing? Of course not, that's why he's trying to learn to play like a traditional center. But then again, we all know that as well - that's the main reason why he's struggling in the first place ...

Benzo 02-26-2008 10:41 PM

Good Read CG...

...Oh and I stand by Bargs>Bosh in 2 years

Kuzzy 02-26-2008 11:34 PM

Its not his stats...
something tells me he cant play, like when he drives
- his heads down
- makes up his mind WAY to early
- 40% chance of a turnover

I think defensively he'l be fine later on and rebounding is still in question.
But his inside game needs A LOT of work.
He needs the calm and patient swagger alongside relentless effort.

fancylad 02-27-2008 07:21 AM

I've seen big time improvement in Bargnani's defensive game during the month of feb. Rebounding was horri-awful earlier, but that looks to be slowly improving as well.

I was never worried abount Bargnani like some were because i've always been a patient fan. Especially with a young centre like Andrea - and just like in seasons past with Chris bosh. Bargnani will come around eventually. I don't know when, but at some point (maybe next season) "it" will all start to come together for him. You can see the way he's played most games this month that he's not far off from that.

Oh, and personally, i DO like it when Bargnani drives to the hoop. I'd say he is still learning what he can and can't do with the refs, but dude is quick for someone his size and agile too. I really liked his baseline drives last year. The more he gets used to taking it inside the better he will be.

Superjudge 02-27-2008 09:42 AM

I love bargs.

Watching babies grow is hard though, so we yell.

Bosh is very good.

If Bargnani becomes better than him, he will be a top three MVP candidate.

Hope you're right then Benzo.

moremilk 02-27-2008 09:42 AM

last year he was horrendous to watch while driving, this year is just painfull ... :) He's so ungracious (to be expected from such a tall guy) - but there's no denying that at times his drives are very effective. Once he learns how to stop without comitting the charge, he will be much more effective.

MangoKidHoops 02-27-2008 10:36 AM

I think Bargs will be fine. Big men take a lot longer to develop in the NBA than point guards or swingmen. And with the transition from the European game to the NBA game, it takes a smidge more time. I think Bargs will be just fine in a year or two.

Ove the past month, he played decent D - nothing to write home about, but he has played the opposition's 5 pretty solidly.

He just needs more confidence and he will be alright.

The MVP of West Hollywood 02-27-2008 09:50 PM

My personal opinion on Bargs is that it might be better for the Raptors long-term if he stays a 15 ppg player who comes off the bench and has the ability to go for 25 on any given night.

Now my theory on that I could discuss for a while, but I am primarily of the opinion that we cannot win a championship without a big center who can get 10+ rebounds a game and guard the paint. Nobody has won a chip without the big rebounder, and by nobody, I mean it. Going back twenty years, you've got Duncan, Ben Wallace, Shaq, Rodman, Hakeem, Kareem, Parish, Malone, etc. (I'm not too familiar with the late 80s Pistons, I assume Rodman may have been the guy there too). Now you can make the argument that Bargnani could be the type of player we haven't seen before and therefore comparisons are not valid, but I truly believe that with Bargs as our starting C, our interior d and rebounding will never be good enough to go all the way. And I assumed that if he "pans out" and becomes a 20/6 player, he would be our starter without doubt.

Here's what I think the Raptors manifest destiny is: Jose, Bosh, and a big 10+ rebounding defensive center as the starters, TJ and 15 ppg Bargs off the bench lighting it up, providing one of the best secondary 1-2 punches in the league. Now THAT team has a chance to win a championship, assuming Colangelo would fill in the rest of the pieces appropriately. The only question is, where to get that center. ;)

Belsius 02-27-2008 10:33 PM

I agree in part with you, that game after game, it looks more dificult to me for Bargs to become that +10 C. He plays so much better when he is a PF. BUT, we cant give up on trying to make him a good C on a guy with such talent so soon, in his sophomore year.
What I dont agree with you is with the fact of keeping andrea as a backup player. I would prefer for him to go to another team and become that dominant starting PF he should be.
IMO this guy is going to be really good one way or another, the question for us is when.

BballWatcher 02-28-2008 12:30 AM

I hear Greg Oden is available.












[Borat voice] Not!

Acie 02-28-2008 07:43 AM

The era of the dominant center is gone. I'm not the least bit worried about he and Bosh playing the 4/5 together.


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