What to reasonably expect for rebounding.
Old 08-26-2009, 02:14 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default What to reasonably expect for rebounding.

Code:
Players		ORB	DRB	TRB	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%
Marcus Banks	0.2	0.3	0.5	3	5.8	4.4
Andrea Bargnani	0.9	4.4	5.3	3.4	16.4	10
Marco Belinelli 	0.2	1.5	1.7	1.2	7.5	4.4
Chris Bosh	2.8	7.2	10	8.7	22	15.4
Jose Calderon	0.2	2.6	2.8	0.8	8.9	4.9
Demar DeRozan	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Quincy Douby	0.4	0.6	1	4.9	6.4	5.6
Reggie Evans	1.7	2.9	4.6	14.1	23.9	19
Jarrett Jack	0.5	2.8	3.4	1.8	9.5	5.6
Amir Johnson	1.6	2.1	3.7	13.1	17.2	15.1
Rasho Nesterovic	1.3	2.1	3.4	8.4	13.5	10.9
Patick O'Bryant	0.5	2	2.5	4.8	20.6	12.8
Hedo Turkoglu	0.6	4.7	5.3	1.8	14.2	8.2
Sonny Weems	0	0.3	0.3	0	8.2	4.2
Antoine Wright	0.5	1.6	2.1	2.3	7.7	5
As you can see above I have taken stats from last season for all the players on the Raptors this season. I took last season stats, so some stats (Most notable Bench warmers) may look better then what they really show. As for DeRozan, I thought about taking stats from Carter in his rookie season, but then realized that Carters stats were fluctuated compared to what DeRozans may look like. So I left those stats to be determined.

I am assuming everyone knows what ORB, DRB and TRB are, so I will give you guys a brief description of the % stats.

Defensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available defensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

Offensive rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available offensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.

Total rebound percentage is an estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor.


If you would like to check out the formulas to calculate these percentages you can do so at This Link.

For debate sake, I will begin by looking at the starting line-up with Wright in it as starting shooting guard.

Code:
Players		ORB	DRB	TRB	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%
Andrea Bargnani	0.9	4.4	5.3	3.4	16.4	10
Chris Bosh	2.8	7.2	10	8.7	22	15.4
Hedo Turkoglu	0.6	4.7	5.3	1.8	14.2	8.2
Antoine Wright	0.5	1.6	2.1	2.3	7.7	5
Jose Calderon	0.2	2.6	2.8	0.8	8.9	4.9
When we look at those stats, it's quite palpable that our starting line-up is going to be weak at rebounding. Though here's what I expect:

Bosh will continue to dominate the team in rebounding and hopefully help build on the conception of team rebounding. Now the dimension of the starting line-up next season will be changing incredibly. We are losing Marion (Who was an elite rebounder) and Parker who was a good rebounder for the SG position. Marion last season average 8.3 RPG and had a TRB% of 13.8. Some may dispute that this took off some of the pressure of Bargnani in the second half of the season. Which we all know Bargnani really came out of his shell then. With the loss of Marion, and the addition of Turkoglu, rebounding in the starting line-up has dropped drastically, and that line-up may be one of the most terrible rebounding line-ups in the league.

For it to gain any type of success Turkoglu, Bargnani and Wright will all have to improve severely on their rebounding skills. Though, substituting DeRozan in for Wright in the starting line-up may have a change, it would be small to say the least. Turk will have to adapt to getting after it on the boards, well Bargnani will have to become more aggressive. If not, it could become an all out slaughter night in and night out. I do believe Wright can improve more than the rest. Here's why:

Last season Wright played with a great squad in Dallas. He was a lock down defender, and played beside Jason Kidd and Josh Howard, who are both above average rebounders in their positions.

Code:
Players		ORB	DRB	TRB	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%
Josh Howard	1.1	3.9	5.1	4.1	14	9.1
Jason Kidd	1	5.1	6.2	3.4	16.4	9.9
Look at those stats, both players grabbed together 20% of available rebounds. If we look at Turkoglu and Jose, they manage to grab about 13% of rebounds. The difference is this season Wright will have more opportunities to grab the rebounds and be belligerent. Especially being the 5th option on offense in the starting line-up he can get after it on offense and defence. Realistically though unless we show good improvement, our starting line-up is going to be in a struggle on the boards.

Next, I will look at the next 6 players (In no particular order) who I feel will be competing for a realistic role off the bench.

Code:
Players		ORB	DRB	TRB	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%
Marco Belinelli 	0.2	1.5	1.7	1.2	7.5	4.4
Reggie Evans	1.7	2.9	4.6	14.1	23.9	19
Jarrett Jack	0.5	2.8	3.4	1.8	9.5	5.6
Amir Johnson	1.6	2.1	3.7	13.1	17.2	15.1
Rasho Nesterovic	1.3	2.1	3.4	8.4	13.5	10.9
Demar DeRozan	DBT	DBT	DBT	DBT	DBT	DBT
First I will look at the impact of Jarret Jack and his stint off the bench. I do not see him playing much other then PG. I see Calderon's minutes dropping some and Jack coming off the bench having the biggest impact. But since this article is on rebounding, I will stay on topic. Jarret Jack is an upgrade in that sense over Calderon off the bench. He is more athletic, but brings different tangibles to the floor. He brings a different pace, which is a quick up tempo style. This style will presumably take away rebounds from certain players. It will give odd man rushes so the opportunity to rebound the ball might drop, but not significantly for players. Rebounding wise though I see a drop for Jack this season because our Bench has some above average rebounders.

Next, DeRozan and Belinelli. Belinelli is a bad rebounder. But that is not what Triano will be calling upon him to do. Belinelli will presume an Eddie House type role off the bench if he proves to be consistent, which we are all hoping for. Well on the other hand we have DeRozan. DeRozan will run the floor with Jack, and crash the boards if he plays anything like he did in university. If we compared his stats to Carter in his first year, he would be one of our top rebounders next season. Though I feel obligated not to because Carter was in a different situation, is a different player and I frankly don't take too much out of player comparisons. DeRozan will have opportunities for put backs and have the athletic edge over some players. I can see DeRozan being the second best offensive rebounder behind Bosh next season, if he uses his athleticism to his advantage.

Amir Johnson is an fascinating player. Many believe he will bring it this season, and if he does and gets minutes expect his rebounding numbers to be through the roof. Really though. He already has a 15.1 % TRB and that's with minimum minutes and opportunities. Truth is, if he plays anything near what he is capable of expect him to be a long term fix in Toronto. Though right now Evans is our best rebounder off the bench, I just don't know how much he has left in him. He bring in intimidation and is physical, he is slowly losing his edge. Johnson will give him a hard run for minutes and I will expect competitive practises. Evans really knows how to position himself and rebound though. So it may be hard not to utilize him next season, especially if we are struggling early on, which I expect we will be. Rasho, will be a nice piece off the bench for Bargnani. His rebounding number dropped notably last season compared to his season with the Raptors. That was mainly because his role malformed. I expect them to come up some, back to his time with the Raptors. He is a good rebounder and defender which is why it would be hard not to play him.

Overall, it is safe to say our starting line-up will struggle on the boards and our second unit will bring in the edge off the bench. It does become significant though that our starters will be getting a lot of minutes, and not be able to rebound that great. There is only so much the bench can do. If players like Turk, Bargnani and Wright don't perk up this season there could be some long nights. Though I am not laying the season on rebounding, I am saying that rebounding will become one of the main factors which will determine if we are contenders or pretenders.

Cheers,
DuCa00795

Last edited by DuCa00795; 08-27-2009 at 01:22 AM.
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Old 08-26-2009, 02:32 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Hmmm, interesting dissection. So basically, our "transition-oriented" starting line-up, who actually needs the rebounding, can't rebound, while our less potent second unit has too much rebounding for their style of basketball.

This fares really well for us.

Oh well, this pretty much summarizes our main problems:

1) Terrible perimeter defense
2) Bargnani has no hops/upper body strength to box out AND rebound
3) Fucks sakes, can someone on our team climb someone's back on the boards already? This team's cereal.
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Old 08-26-2009, 02:47 PM   #3 (permalink)
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You basically nailed that on the hammer, Lyricality. Defence, though is another discussion all together haha. It give me headaches thinking about how bad we might get potentially burned haha.
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Old 08-26-2009, 03:16 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Lyricality View Post
2) Bargnani has no hops/upper body strength to box out AND rebound
.
Hops will help your rebounding, as will upper body strength, but having neither is no excuse for not being able to rebound. Boxing out and rebounding go hand in hand - it's about getting down and establishing a firm, athletic stance and using your ass to keep guys out and protect the paint. It's more about lower body strength than it is about upper body strength to be perfectly honest. Andrea consistently boxes out, sometimes he'll grab the board as well, other times not. Sometimes all you need is one guy boxing out for another guy to grab a rebound. Ideally you want five guys boxing out, but let's not kid ourselves here.
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Old 08-26-2009, 03:19 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Realistically
Starters

Bargs- 6-7RPG
Bosh- 10RPG
Turkoglu- 5-6RPG
Wright??- 3RPG
Jose- 3RPG
--------------
Total= 27-29RPG

Bench

Belinelli- 2RPG
Derozan- 3-4RPG
Jack- 3RPG
Evans-6RPG
Rasho- 3-4RPG
--------------
Total= 17-19RPG


Combined total of 44-48RPG as a team.
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Old 08-26-2009, 03:19 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Barkley said it best: "It's about going and getting the damn ball".

If the Raptors want to improve their rebounding they'll have to be willing to bang, put a body on people and give the effort.
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Old 08-26-2009, 03:26 PM   #7 (permalink)
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BTW, none of our SG can rebound

Wright- 2.1 (even though i still think he'll play mostly SF)
Belinelli- 1.5
Jack- 3.4 (not bad but he'll mostly be playing PG)


Derozan might just be our main rebounder at SG, his length & speed could allow him to be our best rebounding SG. The thing is all of them are young and put in the right system, all of them can improve. Rebounding is mostly about a mindset and positioning.

Last edited by jeffb; 08-26-2009 at 03:33 PM.
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Old 08-26-2009, 03:31 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dann38 View Post
Barkley said it best: "It's about going and getting the damn ball".

If the Raptors want to improve their rebounding they'll have to be willing to bang, put a body on people and give the effort.
Barkley was 6'4" I believe, and he owned the glass. The Round Mound of Rebound straight up wanted it more than everyone else on the floor.
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Old 08-26-2009, 03:39 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dann38 View Post
Barkley said it best: "It's about going and getting the damn ball".

If the Raptors want to improve their rebounding they'll have to be willing to bang, put a body on people and give the effort.
No need to even continue the thread after Dann's comment.

Dann get's it.


Thread closed.

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Old 08-26-2009, 06:19 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Well if that was the case then every team would be great rebounding teams haha. I think it'll be hard for players who have never rebounded before to begin to rebound.
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Old 08-26-2009, 06:26 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I think Rasho has the ability to average about 6-8rpg a game but instead he chooses to tip the ball out towards the hands of one of our other players.
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Old 08-26-2009, 06:35 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Barkley was 6'4" I believe, and he owned the glass. The Round Mound of Rebound straight up wanted it more than everyone else on the floor.
I thought he was 6'6''

Quote:
During his college career, Barkley played the center position, despite being shorter than the average center. His height, frequently listed as 6'6", is stated as 6'4" in his book, I May Be Wrong but I Doubt It

Listed at 6'6" and 250 lbs, but in truth closer to 6'4", Barkley is the shortest player in NBA history to lead the league in rebounding, averaging 14.6 rebounds per game during the 1986-87 season. He was capable of controlling the defensive rebound and dribbling the length of the court for a ferocious finish at the rim.
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Old 08-26-2009, 06:37 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Hmm, too bad we don't have a bunch of Barkley's on our team then. That would solve the problems.
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Old 08-26-2009, 06:39 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Hmm, too bad we don't have a bunch of Barkley's on our team then. That would solve the problems.
then we couldn't shoot the 3
bunch=?
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Old 08-26-2009, 06:44 PM   #15 (permalink)
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I thought he was 6'6''
He was the same height as Jordan I believe and Jordan was billed at 6'6" but really his real height was about 6'4.5".



If Barkley is 6'6" that would make Malone like 7'0" who is listed at 6'9".

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Old 08-26-2009, 07:01 PM   #16 (permalink)
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lol, How did this end up getting on the topic of Barkley again? truth is Barkley is one of the best in the game, he played PF, and Bosh is our PF. Bosh is a good rebounder, it's the rest of the team that worries us. haha
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Old 08-26-2009, 08:57 PM   #17 (permalink)
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I wish Banks would be off that list because he should be gone from the roster.

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Old 08-26-2009, 09:26 PM   #18 (permalink)
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[code]

Overall, it is safe to say our starting line-up will struggle on the boards and our second unit will bring in the edge off the bench. It does become significant though that our starters will be getting a lot of minutes, and not be able to rebound that great. There is only so much the bench can do. If players like Turk, Bargnani and Wright don't perk up this season it there could be some long nights. Though I am not laying the season on rebounding, I am saying that rebounding will become one of the main factors which will determine if we are contenders or pretenders.

Cheers,
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Interesting read and some good points. I really believe our starting unit will rebound better than most people think. The main reason is we have guys like Turk, Wright and Bargs who are good at keeping their men off the boards. Turk is as good as anyone in the league in keeping his man off the boards. You will seldomly ever see Turk's man secure a rebound in our zone. Bargs really improved at boxing out his man last year and Bosh and Marion were major benefactors of that as there were games where the two of them secured 30 boards, a ridiculous amount for a frontcourt pair. Wright does a good job of keeping his man in check at all times also. Bosh, though he gets a hell of alot of rebounds, doesn't really do much boxing out and if he did, you would see other's rebounds go up. I believe we will be mountains better at rebounding this year as opposed to the first half of last year. Plus we have some good ones coming off the bench too like Rasho,Evans and Johnson.
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Old 08-26-2009, 09:26 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by DuCa00795 View Post
lol, How did this end up getting on the topic of Barkley again? truth is Barkley is one of the best in the game, he played PF, and Bosh is our PF. Bosh is a good rebounder, it's the rest of the team that worries us. haha
Bosh just gets those easy defensive rebounds that just fall into his hand. If someone has a body on Bosh there is no way that Bosh will even make an effort to shove and push the guy off balance to get the rebound.
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Old 08-26-2009, 09:28 PM   #20 (permalink)
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I don't get why we have these, "Predict the Raptors stats" threads. I thought winning meant playing as a team, not playing for stats.
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