We have a single person in the lead! Raptors vs. Heats Over/Under Poll - Mar 6/2009

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View Poll Results: Make your prediction!
Over 204 Points (Combined Scores) 16 59.26%
Under 204 Points (Combined Scores) 11 40.74%
Voters: 27. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-06-2009, 11:29 AM   #1 (permalink)
watching.

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Default We have a single person in the lead! Raptors vs. Heats Over/Under Poll - Mar 6/2009

LX take sole possession of first!

5 wins
LX

4 wins
Gurk
Dann38
Krazy_Ivan

3 wins

Miniwheats
Raptorman
TO2988
Dr. J. Naismith
Ligeia
NaturallyStoned

2 wins

logicz
thriller92
bjjs
Clause_Baush
moremilk
nolimitz64
the_raps_analyst
CB4LIFE
jj0786

1 win
Belsius
Insider
Shifty.py
TorontoProper
insight_tor
Jay
jeaxz
jeffb
Febreezy
Raptor36
Snooch
$-centz
F1nir
kg1585
thomas1
Torontosaurus
babyface
Dark_Knight
fancylad
Iggypop
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Kuzzy
lonewolfpoet
MetaLRasaM

For tonight's game, do you think the combined scores of the Raptors and the Heat will be over or under 204? Make your prediction in the poll!
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Old 03-06-2009, 11:31 AM   #2 (permalink)
grown, and now everything is logical.

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I'm leaning on over.

I shall vote later today, but I'm thinking over.

Is the game in Toronto or Florida?
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Old 03-06-2009, 11:31 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MetaLRasaM View Post
I'm leaning on over.

I shall vote later today, but I'm thinking over.

Is the game in Toronto or Florida?
TDot Rasam
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Old 03-06-2009, 11:31 AM   #4 (permalink)
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thanks Doc, just checked it too.

Ya, I think its gonna be over.
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Old 03-06-2009, 12:20 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Wade iis dropping 40+ tonight.
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Old 03-06-2009, 12:28 PM   #6 (permalink)
grown, and now everything is logical.

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Originally Posted by INSIDER View Post
Wade iis dropping 40+ tonight.
naww..30+..but no 40

I think 36
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Old 03-06-2009, 01:50 PM   #7 (permalink)
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The number is a little high for me, but I still think it'll go over.
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Old 03-06-2009, 02:06 PM   #8 (permalink)
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gotta go under 102+95=197
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Old 03-06-2009, 03:48 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MetaLRasaM View Post
I'm leaning on over.

I shall vote later today, but I'm thinking over.

Is the game in Toronto or Florida?
If you wait until game is finished your chance to win will be much better...
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Old 03-06-2009, 03:48 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Well I'm going to go with a more scientific approach. Just kinda my style.

When looking at things like the over/under it's simply not enough to look at the two more basic factors, points for and against.

If we took averages of those two cases in this game we'd find:

Raptors: 97.4/101.0
Miami: 97.5/97.6

Taking averages off these two we'd potentially expect the heat to score 99.25 points and the Raps to score 97.5 for a game total of 196.75 making it a seemingly easy bet on the under.

The question then becomes why is the line at 202.5 on sportsbook? For one, the public tends to favor the over in NBA basketball, meaning it's much easier for the books to weight the over slightly higher in order to get equal action on the numbers. This also means the over is typically inflated which could provide the bettors an edge.

Remember, the over/under is not what the sportsbook project the game total to be, it is the number they expect to get equal $ bet on each side. In a game like this with a prolific scorer (dWade) it's easy for the public to get carried away thinking that his point total at all affects the teams total (case in point where he scored 40 against TOR in Miami earlier this year and the Heat didn't reach 100).

It looks like the o/u might have started at 204 and has moved all the way down to 202 on a lot of books. What does this tell us? Well it means that the under was getting too much action and the books had to move the line down because of it. Unfortunately everything I've read has shown this to be the case and not the books thinking they have an edge on the over. Had the line stayed the same I'd be all about the over, however, it has moved down which doesn't give us any advantage.

So if I'm stuck I look at trends, while I'm not a huge fan of them they tend to be tie-breakers. However, in a game like this I'd rather just stay away from betting as I do not believe to have an advantage.

The past 9 times these two teams have played the under has hit in 6 of them. However, each team has hit the over in 5 of their last 6 games played, so unfortunately trends don't do a lot for us here. Seeing how I don't have to put money on this bet it's easy for me to choose:

My pick is going to be for the under for 2 reasons:

1. You have it at 204 and the line is all the way down to 202
2. The trends between these two teams (including 4 or the last 5 in TOR going under)
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Old 03-06-2009, 04:06 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krazy Ivan View Post
If you wait until game is finished your chance to win will be much better...
I already voted you jerk

why do you always hurt my feelings like that man?????
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Old 03-06-2009, 04:10 PM   #12 (permalink)
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nice work spenda. that is some sharp stuff right there.
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Old 03-06-2009, 04:11 PM   #13 (permalink)
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You don't factor the Shaq and Bosh thing E...which means Bosh is gonna show up. (we hope)

and also, its a home game for a streaky team, which means Raps might get some extra shots off and some extra makes.

Betting isn't science man. You can try to use science to get better info, but luck is a big factor. People just don't show up.

Thunder Vs. Mavs last night?
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Old 03-06-2009, 04:12 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by MetaLRasaM View Post
I already voted you jerk

why do you always hurt my feelings like that man?????
Because I you... that's why...
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Old 03-06-2009, 04:21 PM   #15 (permalink)
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So far it has never been under but I still have to go with it
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Old 03-06-2009, 04:21 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krazy Ivan View Post
Because I you... that's why...
you and your freaky fetish ways of showing your heart!:P

you sexy,ps3owning,devil!

quick, lets go before SJ comes around!
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Old 03-06-2009, 04:44 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Gotta go "OVER"
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Old 03-06-2009, 04:48 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spenda View Post
Well I'm going to go with a more scientific approach. Just kinda my style.

When looking at things like the over/under it's simply not enough to look at the two more basic factors, points for and against.

If we took averages of those two cases in this game we'd find:

Raptors: 97.4/101.0
Miami: 97.5/97.6

Taking averages off these two we'd potentially expect the heat to score 99.25 points and the Raps to score 97.5 for a game total of 196.75 making it a seemingly easy bet on the under.

The question then becomes why is the line at 202.5 on sportsbook? For one, the public tends to favor the over in NBA basketball, meaning it's much easier for the books to weight the over slightly higher in order to get equal action on the numbers. This also means the over is typically inflated which could provide the bettors an edge.

Remember, the over/under is not what the sportsbook project the game total to be, it is the number they expect to get equal $ bet on each side. In a game like this with a prolific scorer (dWade) it's easy for the public to get carried away thinking that his point total at all affects the teams total (case in point where he scored 40 against TOR in Miami earlier this year and the Heat didn't reach 100).

It looks like the o/u might have started at 204 and has moved all the way down to 202 on a lot of books. What does this tell us? Well it means that the under was getting too much action and the books had to move the line down because of it. Unfortunately everything I've read has shown this to be the case and not the books thinking they have an edge on the over. Had the line stayed the same I'd be all about the over, however, it has moved down which doesn't give us any advantage.

So if I'm stuck I look at trends, while I'm not a huge fan of them they tend to be tie-breakers. However, in a game like this I'd rather just stay away from betting as I do not believe to have an advantage.

The past 9 times these two teams have played the under has hit in 6 of them. However, each team has hit the over in 5 of their last 6 games played, so unfortunately trends don't do a lot for us here. Seeing how I don't have to put money on this bet it's easy for me to choose:

My pick is going to be for the under for 2 reasons:

1. You have it at 204 and the line is all the way down to 202
2. The trends between these two teams (including 4 or the last 5 in TOR going under)
Can you bet online for over and under?.. you have to teach me these how to bet online. what is the best site?
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Old 03-06-2009, 04:54 PM   #19 (permalink)
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under
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Old 03-06-2009, 05:06 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Can you bet online for over and under?.. you have to teach me these how to bet online. what is the best site?
You definitely can. In fact online sportsbooks tend to offer a lot more options than your average casino. The best book for you depends on a few factors, namely your location as most are regionally-restricted. We'll be updating the links on the banner above soon to reflect the possibilities for the majority of our membership.
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