Slam online: Raptors resurgence - Page 7
Old 01-10-2014, 03:29 PM   #121 (permalink)
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btw, I by superstar I meant players with 3+ all star selections, not lebron/durant type of superstar -those are NEVER drafted outside lottery.
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Old 01-10-2014, 03:31 PM   #122 (permalink)
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You jumped all over my comment, not guarantee, about 50 wins, and suggested it was flawed due to not considering complicated formulas about other teams. But you failed to address my assertion about this team that would hold true regardless of any other external factors. If they play at a level of a top 5 defense they are going to have every chance of winning 50 games or more in any given season. Do you not agree with this? Of course there could be injuries or drop-offs for reasons beyond their control, but mostly an ingrained culture stressing defensive intensity is going to have a good amount of control over their ability to win a good load of games. And if a drop-off does happen, then they get a high pick, which will likely develop into a better player, more quickly, than otherwise, thanks to the foundational play that he will come into. Of course it will not be your magical draft, but could you not live with that anyways?

I have to say that i have asked you guys many questions to try to help me get a better understanding of what you expound, and i mostly just get the same looped messages in return. You insist on how stuck this team is and will be. Even if i give you that, two years does not seem like being terribly stuck. What seems most stuck is your thought patterns.
I agree with the fact that a top 5 defensive team will always compete for 50 wins. But being a top 5 defensive team for an entire season is probably harder to do than winning 50 games.

There was another stat that was showing that teams that finish top 10 in defense almost always make the playoffs.
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Old 01-10-2014, 03:51 PM   #123 (permalink)
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I agree with the fact that a top 5 defensive team will always compete for 50 wins. But being a top 5 defensive team for an entire season is probably harder to do than winning 50 games.

There was another stat that was showing that teams that finish top 10 in defense almost always make the playoffs.
The only thing that is easy is losing.
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Old 01-10-2014, 04:09 PM   #124 (permalink)
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In terms of the makeup of the club, there are some similarities the early 2000s Pistons teams. There may not be any superstars, but the club plays hard, is very good defensively, and they're playing a physical style of game.

Leading the charge is Lowry. Like Chauncey Billups, Lowry is tough, facilitates well, and hits the big shot when needed. He's also been excellent defensively.

DD is developing into a really solid SG. He doesn't shoot the rock as consistently as
Rip Hamilton did, but he has a more diverse game.

The team has a physical frontline. The club could probably use another bruiser, but the depth, when Hansborough is healthy, is very good.

I'm not saying this team is like the 2004 Pistons championship team or that they will win one, but there are some similarities to the composition of this Raptors team to the Pistons teams of 2001-02 and 2002-03. There are still a few missing pieces, but maybe this team isn't as far away as many expected them to be. Who would have thought that trading Gay would allow the team, as a whole, and individuals to flourish.
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Old 01-10-2014, 04:14 PM   #125 (permalink)
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which part of "likely" you misundertood?
history totally proves him right, as evidenced in this historical chart:

NBA Draft Analysis -- Expected value of a pick

there's a 8% chance of drafting a star outside the lottery and a 15% chance of drafting a solid player. Role players and less don't count, since you can get those on the market easily (unless you are lucky to get a role player who can contribute at that level right away, so at least you save some money).

So there's about 75% chance of NOT drafting a solid player or better outside lottery, which qualifies as "likely" by most people's accounts.

As for drafting a superstar, try 0% (rounded down to the nearest integer).
Here is a cut and paste from his post:

My point is that its not very likely you get a rotation player with late picks.

Chandler Parsons
Manu Ginobli
IT2
Amir Johnson
Tony Parker
Kawai Leonard
Kenneth Faried
DeJuan Blair
Ben Wallace
Jeremy Lin
Patrick Beverly
Omer Asik
Lance Stephenson.

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Old 01-10-2014, 06:01 PM   #126 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moremilk View Post
which part of "likely" you misundertood?
history totally proves him right, as evidenced in this historical chart:

NBA Draft Analysis -- Expected value of a pick

there's a 8% chance of drafting a star outside the lottery and a 15% chance of drafting a solid player. Role players and less don't count, since you can get those on the market easily (unless you are lucky to get a role player who can contribute at that level right away, so at least you save some money).

So there's about 75% chance of NOT drafting a solid player or better outside lottery, which qualifies as "likely" by most people's accounts.

As for drafting a superstar, try 0% (rounded down to the nearest integer).
Quote:
So at a glance you can see the first five picks tend towards stars and solid types with no complete busts.
Da fuq? This link/chart is complete bullshit for many reasons but this is the most glaring. Or maybe their definition of bust for a top 5 pick is much different than mine.

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Old 01-10-2014, 06:15 PM   #127 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Northern Neighbour View Post
In terms of the makeup of the club, there are some similarities the early 2000s Pistons teams. There may not be any superstars, but the club plays hard, is very good defensively, and they're playing a physical style of game.

Leading the charge is Lowry. Like Chauncey Billups, Lowry is tough, facilitates well, and hits the big shot when needed. He's also been excellent defensively.

DD is developing into a really solid SG. He doesn't shoot the rock as consistently as
Rip Hamilton did, but he has a more diverse game.

The team has a physical frontline. The club could probably use another bruiser, but the depth, when Hansborough is healthy, is very good.

I'm not saying this team is like the 2004 Pistons championship team or that they will win one, but there are some similarities to the composition of this Raptors team to the Pistons teams of 2001-02 and 2002-03. There are still a few missing pieces, but maybe this team isn't as far away as many expected them to be. Who would have thought that trading Gay would allow the team, as a whole, and individuals to flourish.
Amir is a bit of a composite of Wallace and Sheed, and of course he was around those guys.
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Old 01-10-2014, 06:18 PM   #128 (permalink)
and that's the bottom line, cause JV said so!!!

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Right now, we'd have the 17th overall pick.

Players drafted at 17 in the past:

2013- Dennis Schroder
2012-Tyler Zeller
2011- Iman Shumpert
2010- Kevin Seraphin
2009- Jrue Holiday
2008- Roy Hibbert
2007- Sean Williams
2006- Shawne Williams
2005- Danny Granger
2004- Josh Smith

So, out of those 10 drafts, the 17th selection has produced only two players who aren't in the NBA anymore (Williams is a FA as of earlier this week). Not only that, but it's produced 4 players who are legit all stars in the NBA (Holiday, Smith, Granger, Hibbert)

Not to bad.
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Old 01-10-2014, 10:17 PM   #129 (permalink)
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Right now, we'd have the 17th overall pick.

Players drafted at 17 in the past:

2013- Dennis Schroder
2012-Tyler Zeller
2011- Iman Shumpert
2010- Kevin Seraphin
2009- Jrue Holiday
2008- Roy Hibbert
2007- Sean Williams
2006- Shawne Williams
2005- Danny Granger
2004- Josh Smith

So, out of those 10 drafts, the 17th selection has produced only two players who aren't in the NBA anymore (Williams is a FA as of earlier this week). Not only that, but it's produced 4 players who are legit all stars in the NBA (Holiday, Smith, Granger, Hibbert)

Not to bad.
Not to mention all of the good players who have been chosen AFTER the 17th pick. Hell, some 2nd rounders have even turned into gems.
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Old 01-10-2014, 10:23 PM   #130 (permalink)
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Ujuri is going to a lot of college games. The importance of scouting cannot be underestimated.

Anybody see bill and jalen and doug collins on the pregame tonight? They all agreed there is no franchise changing player in the draft, and they mentioned how Jim Boeheim said that earlier.
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Old 01-10-2014, 10:46 PM   #131 (permalink)
doesn't care where LeBron plays. Or Melo.

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Ujuri is going to a lot of college games. The importance of scouting cannot be underestimated.

Anybody see bill and jalen and doug collins on the pregame tonight? They all agreed there is no franchise changing player in the draft, and they mentioned how Jim Boeheim said that earlier.
Saw that segment. The strongest statement came from Collins, but all 3 were in full agreement. There are a lot of good prospects, deep draft, but no franchise changers.
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Old 01-10-2014, 10:53 PM   #132 (permalink)
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Ujuri is going to a lot of college games. The importance of scouting cannot be underestimated.

Anybody see bill and jalen and doug collins on the pregame tonight? They all agreed there is no franchise changing player in the draft, and they mentioned how Jim Boeheim said that earlier.
Ah yes, Bill and Jalen, the sports comedians. The pinnacle of analysis. If they say something the it must be true, forget what those scouts say
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Old 01-10-2014, 10:55 PM   #133 (permalink)
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JVG ripped into the tankers a couple of times during the game, including the fans that get sucked into it.

The depth of the draft is great news. We can get a pretty nice player if they do their homework.
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Old 01-10-2014, 10:56 PM   #134 (permalink)
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Ah yes, Bill and Jalen, the sports comedians. The pinnacle of analysis. If they say something the it must be true, forget what those scouts say
Ah yes, Koolaid. The analyst of pinnacles.
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Old 01-10-2014, 10:56 PM   #135 (permalink)
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Ah yes, Bill and Jalen, the sports comedians. The pinnacle of analysis. If they say something the it must be true, forget what those scouts say
And collins and boeheim and jvg know nothing?

Who are these scouts that you speak of?
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Old 01-10-2014, 11:12 PM   #136 (permalink)
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Koolaid just keep shaming yourself.
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Old 01-10-2014, 11:12 PM   #137 (permalink)
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And collins and boeheim and jvg know nothing?

Who are these scouts that you speak of?
Jonathan Givony, probably the guy with the best draft track record ever. And clearly NBA scouts must be seeing the talent if so many teams are tanking this year.
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Old 01-10-2014, 11:14 PM   #138 (permalink)
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Koolaid just keep shaming yourself.
Sure, Mr. Shabaddu. Anything that disagrees with your personal view of right and wrong is shameful.

It's your world and we're all just living in it!
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Old 01-10-2014, 11:21 PM   #139 (permalink)
doesn't care where LeBron plays. Or Melo.

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Sure, Mr. Shabaddu. Anything that disagrees with your personal view of right and wrong is shameful.

It's your world and we're all just living in it!
Are you close to a mirror?
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Old 01-10-2014, 11:35 PM   #140 (permalink)
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Jonathan Givony, probably the guy with the best draft track record ever. And clearly NBA scouts must be seeing the talent if so many teams are tanking this year.
Nobody is saying there isn't talent. Just not the kind of talent that is getting hyped.

Van Gundy called the Raptors resurgent on tonight's espn matchup. Is he reading this thread?
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