S'93: A Raptors Summer
Old 07-14-2009, 02:26 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default S'93: A Raptors Summer



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Originally Posted by Searching For '93
A payroll of $65,000,000 (plus) will put the Raps into the top ten in the NBA. More interesting - at least, to the author - is the prospective payroll of the Raptors (if Bosh re-ups) through the 2012/13 season. A core of Bosh, Turkoglu, Bargnani and Calderon is going to cost approximately $45,000,000 per year. When you include DeRozan’s rookie deal (good through 2014) and at least a few more draft picks / role players, the current makeup of the Raptors precludes them from signing anyone of consequence for the foreseeable future. Moreover, if MLSE decides that they don’t want to pay the luxury tax, the Raptors could be forced to deal one of their top-four, (who, hereafter will be referred to as The Inflexible Four) because the NBA Salary Cap is moving backwards faster than Bob Ryan’s credibility. (Ryan pronounced Brock Lesnar’s name les-NAAARRRR yesterday. On purpose. Do some phonetic preparation, Ryan.)

Finally we have the looming specter of a lockout in 2011/12 and the very real possibility that NBA players will have to wear rape-diapers because of David Stern. I don’t know what that lockout will yield. Neither do you. Neither does Bryan Colangelo. So, there.

All of the above information takes place in a world where the Raptors tie themselves to one Christopher Bosh. So what if that doesn’t happen? Again, that’s why I’m here.

Before we get into who replaces Bosh, let’s examine the Raptors without him.

A TurkishItalianSpanish combination of Turkoglu, Calderon and Bargnani makes the Raptors the most identifiably International team in the entire NBA.

This Foreign Threesome (which I highly recommend typing into Google) would make an average of $28,000,000 over the next four years. Am I crazy or does that nucleus - and the accompanying financial flexibility - seem much more intriguing than The Inflexible Four pushing us right up against the luxury tax every year?

Let’s imagine - just for a minute - that Colangelo likes The Foreign Threesome better. Okay… (This is going to be fun.)

Chris Bosh Trade Scenarios:

* The Raptors trade Chris Bosh to the Portland Trailblazers for Rudy Fernandez, LaMarcus Aldridge and Travis Outlaw.

o Who doesn’t make this deal? By the way, all of the deals work in the ESPN NBA Trade Machine –

* The Raptors trade Chris Bosh to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Brian Cardinal, Kevin Love and… RICKY RUBIO!!

o OOOOOOOOHHHHHHH ricky RU-BI-O / ru-BI-O / ru-BI-OHH / rrrricky ru-BI-OHHHHHH! I’d take more about a Spanish point guard tandem of Calderon and Ricky Rubio but I fear that I may attempt to make love to a plate of Polvorón. Amazingly, I think that it’d be Minnesota who turns down this deal. The chances that they could re-sign Chris Bosh after next season are marginal, at best. So, why is it on the list? Simple: Their GM just selected two straight point guards with the 5th and 6th pick in the NBA Draft. Anything is possible.

* The Raptors trade Chris Bosh to the Golden State Warriors for Anthony Randolph and Monta Ellis.

o What’s that? Monta Ellis has a bad contract? He’s making a million more per year than Andrea Bargnani. And, lest we forget, Anthony Randolph might actually be the most fascinating player in the entire NBA.

If you can look past the idea of trading Bosh (assuming you’re against it) and envision the Raptors revamped roster after any one of the above scenarios, I think you’ll agree with me: This team is better off (with the Turkoglu signing / Bargnani extension in the bag) trading Chris Bosh for a group of young players either on a rookie-scale deal, or locked into reasonable long-term contracts.

Whatever your opinion, that isn’t the world that we live in. So, let’s look at what we have.

The Raptors in 2009/10 and beyond:

* What does Vegas think? My buddy EyeBLeaf and I have an ongoing bet about the Toronto Blue Jays. We picked a number of different categories and bet the Over/Under. The cumulative winner from those categories will take home $100 and the loser will have to procure a photograph with Mike Wilner (who I actually like now). Long story short, there was one category that we weighted more heavily than others: O/U Win Total, which Vegas set at 81.5. Four weeks ago, that number seemed preposterous. Now, it’s bang on. The lesson: Vegas knows, my friends. So, what does Vegas have to say about the 2009/10 Raptors: Well, for starters the Raptors are 66/1 to win the NBA Championship, far behind perennial powerhouses like: Philadelphia, Washington, New Orleans and New York (doesn’t count because the books are trying to lure the sucker bet from deranged Knicks fans all over the world). That’s not particularly promising; after all, the NBA isn’t the NFL where a team like the Rams (or Pats, Giants, Titans and Cardinals) can come out of nowhere to either win the title, or make an appearance in the title game. In the NBA, it just doesn’t happen. According to Vegas either Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Los Angeles, San Antonio or Denver are going to win the Championship. If I gave you the field, would you take that bet at even odds? I wouldn’t.

* Have we seen Chris Bosh’s ceiling? The short answer: Mostly. In his sixth full season, the Raptors dragged 77 games (4 off of career high), 22.7 ppg (career high), 10.0 rpg and 38 mpg out of him. That’s his offensive zenith, folks. Defensively, there’s still room for improvement. Health wise, there is not. Chris Bosh has played 450 games (not including international matches) without a serious injury.

* What can we expect from Hedo Turkoglu? Durability. Turkoglu has averaged 75 games per season over a nine-year NBA Career. Real or imagined, he seems to want the ball in his hands at the end of a game. (If you’re scoring at home, Chris Bosh is now the third option for end of game play-calling after Turkoglu and Calderon. Just saying.) He’s going to get you 11 - 13 ppg, and maybe most importantly, the Raptors will be able to unleash a front-line that is 254 inches tall. Good stuff.

* Cosa possiamo aspettarci da Andrea Bargnani? Michael Grange did a nice job on his blog From Deep of projecting what the Raptors invested in when they signed Bargnani to his extension. Grange mentions that Bargnani, through the final 46 games of last season averaged 18.1 / 6.0 / 46% / 43% from 3-point range. Could there be more of an upward trend? Perhaps. Would the above numbers be suitable for $10,000,000 per-year? Actually, yes. They would indeed.

* Can Jose Calderon survive and thrive in this league without a capable backup who plays 15 - 20 minutes a night over an extended period of time? No. Which is why the Jack deal would be a real boon for Colangelo. Jack is just good enough to push Jose and drill into some of the competitive fire that we saw during the TJ / Jose melodrama that played out over the most exciting Raptor regular season ever.

Where does that leave us in a world where Bosh signs an extension? Well, it leaves us with a lot of “ifs”.

If DeRozan is a good pick at #9.

If The Inflexible Four all stay healthy.

If Chris Bosh isn’t a flashier version of Shareef Abdur-Rahim.

If 46 games and snippets from his rookie season is enough to ignore a terrible middle-stanza from Andrea Bargnani.

If Calderon is an elite-level point guard.

If Jay Triano can actually coach.

If, if, if.

In my estimation, there are simply too many variables that could misfire; too many eggs in one basket, as it were. And that’s before we settle on a topic heretofore unmentioned in this (exceptionally) long post: Defense.

Who the hell is going to play defense? Are the Raptors shutting down Lebron when they play the Cavs, or Pierce when they play the Celtics? What about when they play the Magic and Vi… *Blacked out.*

The only way that I see the Raptors being anything more than a 44 - 48 win-team is if DeMar DeRozan is an above-average draft pick. By “above-average” I mean really, really good. Like, “top 2 in the draft” level good. Pinning all these hopes on a kid who showed up for 1/3 of the PAC 10 season seems a little backward for a team spending so much money on established NBA players.

I might be wrong. Bosh might be the guy. But even if he is, we’re not winning the title as presently constituted. I wish that wasn’t all that mattered.

But it is.
Source - A Raptors Summer - Part 2 | Searching For '93
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Old 07-14-2009, 02:42 PM   #2 (permalink)
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I'm almost at a complete agreement with that article where as I believe that we should start building around the "euro trio" (I love my nickname for them). Trade Bosh for younger pieces and a starting center so Bargs can play at his natural position.

LOL @ Foreign Threesome
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Old 07-14-2009, 02:43 PM   #3 (permalink)
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I think, that this is shite.



I mean honestly, can you not glass empty pretty much every team in the league????

Everybody wants results, but for 45million a year. It ain't happening, ever, ever again.

You wanna win, you gotta pay, unless you draft a Lebron type that dominates the league immediately.

toronto's line up winning only 44 games?????? You might bite on that.

Say it this way... Toronto's current lineup losing 38 games. NO Fucking WAY!

They are too good to lose 38 games. Period. They coule lose maybe 30. then that gets ya 52 wins. Thats a nice year. For a nice club. With a roster now that can compete when the going gets tough in the springtime.
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Old 07-14-2009, 02:55 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Superjudge View Post
I think, that this is shite.



I mean honestly, can you not glass empty pretty much every team in the league????

Everybody wants results, but for 45million a year. It ain't happening, ever, ever again.

You wanna win, you gotta pay, unless you draft a Lebron type that dominates the league immediately.

toronto's line up winning only 44 games?????? You might bite on that.

Say it this way... Toronto's current lineup losing 38 games. NO Fucking WAY!

They are too good to lose 38 games. Period. They coule lose maybe 30. then that gets ya 52 wins. Thats a nice year. For a nice club. With a roster now that can compete when the going gets tough in the springtime.
agreed

BC has said numerous times that if the $$ make sense (ie, the player we get is WORTH going over the tax for) he has no problem going over the tax and MLSE has echoed his sentiments...

We're going to be a 50 win team next year... We're in the east so we have considerably weaker opponents than the Western teams... im optimistic.
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Old 07-14-2009, 03:02 PM   #5 (permalink)
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uh What's wrong with $45 Mill for the 4?

Currently the other 8 we have signed are costing us $20 mil and that includes Banks awful contract. If necessary he can be bought out so his salary won't count for tax purposes. They could easily shed a few more mil if necessary.
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Old 07-14-2009, 03:36 PM   #6 (permalink)
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And if the cap goes down, doesn't that just mean that Bosh has to accept less? Where this idea that they can't afford Bosh comes from is beyond me.

The concern about defense is legit, but they will be far ahead of where they started last season. If they have Jack, Delfino, Wright, and Derozan turns out to be as committed to D as he talks up, then there are plenty of stoppers on the perimeter to go along with tons of length in the frontcourt.

IF IF IF? I look at how all those ifs are things being worked on to become less iffy, by everyone involved. To me that says they are not looking at the status quo, even if a championship appears somewhat out of reach immediately. I'll take that and run with it as a fan.
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Old 07-14-2009, 03:44 PM   #7 (permalink)
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how many teams are realistically competing for a championship anyways? in any league? ok, well, not in the cfl, but in any other major pro sports league? getting deeper into the playoffs and having a shot is all you can ask for, imo... anything else is gravy and/or luck.

let's look at the top nba teams -

-lakers get gasol through a trade no one would have thought possible and it solidifies the team. artest is added and agrees to play for less cash than he could get elsewhere.

-spurs get duncan by a complete stroke of luck and develop 2nd round picks into stars.

-cavs draft lebron after being a laughing stock for years and suddenly become 'great'

-boston gets an old friend to make what seems like a ludicrous deal and acquires garnett. allen comes to play with him and they succeed despite a razor-thin bench. the thinness of the team rears its head the followiong year and they don't make it past the 2nd round.

-orlando drafts dwight after being terrible and then signs lewis to one of the most overpaid deals of all time. somehow it turns into a success.

every one of these scenarios is full of 'ifs' and a whole bunch of luck and fortuitous circumstances. all you can really do is try to build yourself a good team and see how the guys can compete when the chips are down. seeing where we were at the end of last year and what our offseason prospects appeared to be, colangelo has pretty much done all he can do and more.
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Old 07-14-2009, 03:47 PM   #8 (permalink)
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well said 'trane

the tunnel vision that sees nothing if it can't see the trophy gets pretty tiring. I could never be a fan if that's the way I say things. The game is about the possibilities, not the certainties.
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Old 07-14-2009, 04:23 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Really, how many clubs can you say right now are set up to win championships(have few weaknesses)? Two or three? I think a prime example out of those three is the Magic. Two years ago they were nowhere near contending but they overpaid for a star player, developed their own guys, drafted well and made some smart trades. Now they're contenders. Two years ago no one seen that path for them. They were being criticized for give Lewis far too much money and depending too much on average(at the time) players like Turkoglu and Nelson.
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Old 07-14-2009, 04:33 PM   #10 (permalink)
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True. The Raptors have potential even if it's not playoff potential and possibilities. BC appears to have done pretty well filling the holes this season but nothings certain.

Coaching: a huge ?
Starters: Improved at SG
PG Depth: Improved if they get Jack
Bench Depth: Improved
Offense: Improved
Defense: Worse
Rebounding: Worse
Toughness: Improved
Interior Scoring: Worse
Pick & Roll: Improved
Shooters: Same
Ball Handling: Improved
Veterans Leadership: ? (Lost AP) Improved if they get Rasho
Best Player: B rating
6th Man: Unknown
Teamsmanship: Unknown


Mostly they need Defense and a A type player. We don't know yet how good Bargs and Derozan will get. Bargs should still improve on his D and interior game. Derozans an unknown. Hopefully he can be successfull at the NBA level...
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Old 07-14-2009, 04:51 PM   #11 (permalink)
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At the end of the day all it takes is for KG, Allen or Pierce to go down with a serious injury and the Atlantic division would be wide open...The Top three would be wide open. Those guys are getting old. Sheed helps but time will tell how they hold up. They still don't have much of a bench.
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Old 07-14-2009, 04:52 PM   #12 (permalink)
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At the end of the day all it takes is for KG, Allen or Pierce to go down with a serious injury and the Atlantic division would be wide open...The Top three would be wide open. Those guys are getting old. Sheed helps but time will tell how they hold up. They still don't have much of a bench.
Agreed
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Old 07-14-2009, 05:05 PM   #13 (permalink)
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That's all valid stuff. Although, I don't think I have "tunnel vision" as a fan.

Unless DeRozan is awfully good, this is our group for the next 3 - 4 years. We know - roughly - what they're capable of. Personally, I think there is more of an upside with some of the trades I mentioned.
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Old 07-14-2009, 05:07 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Apollo View Post
At the end of the day all it takes is for KG, Allen or Pierce to go down with a serious injury and the Atlantic division would be wide open...The Top three would be wide open. Those guys are getting old. Sheed helps but time will tell how they hold up. They still don't have much of a bench.
I mean... Isn't that the pot calling the kettle black a little bit?
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Old 07-14-2009, 05:14 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Its the worst argument in sports. You take any top player off any team and of course theyre going to lose more games.

If Turkoglu gets hurt and we're in the lotto again, Bosh leaves, and then we really see how damaging Hedos contract is without Bosh attached.

See?
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