Realistic expectation of the team in general
Old 07-30-2009, 06:58 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Realistic expectation of the team in general

Hello all...

Recently i've been hearing a lot of optimism towards this new-look team but i have to question how realistic your expectations are. To be completely honest, I'm going to have to be conservative when assessing this team.

QUESTION MARKS FOR THE UPCOMMING SEASON

1. Physicality and toughness in the post.
Can Andrea Bargnani line up with the best of them and not look out of place? Can you see Andrea being the guy that stands up to the Shaq's, Howard's, Perkins' and Garnett's of the east? We all watched Dwight in the playoffs this year. He was beastly in the post and he punished anyone that got in his way. Do the Raps have this player? I saw Andrea play against team Canada and I gotta say that it wasn't pretty for the most part. Just too much finesse and not assertive enough to be a legit bigman in the NBA. (yet) Someone else said it best... "SF in a C's body".

Another model to follow would be a team like Denver. They did not have one player like Howard down low but made up for it with team toughness. Guys like Birdman, Kleiza, Nene, Anthony and Martin are tough SOB's.

When I think of the Raptor's front court, I don't see them following either model. I just don't see them matching up well against Cleveland, Orlando, or Boston just yet. Can finesse make up for all the toughness they lack? I would be worried.

2. Age & Maturity

This team has a lot of young talent. I'm not suggesting that you can't win with a lot of youth, but what I am worried about is unrealistic expectations of some of our players.

Take DeRozan as an example. A low percentage of rookies make an impact in the NBA right away, so what makes you think that DeRozan is that guy? How many PPG can you realistically expect from him? What if he fails to meet your expectations? What is the Raptor's contingency plan?

3. What about Hedo?
We know what to expect from Bosh. I am a little worried about Barganani and we all rave about the raptor's scoring depth. What about Hedo? He's a bit of a wildcard here. Will he fit into Triano's system?

Can he be a 15+ PPG player and play solid defense? Can he be a star forward? Can he himself make up for all the defensive deficiencies the Raptors have in the front court? Time will tell.

Conclusion

Love the Raps. However, I would not be completely shocked with a 9th-10th place finish in the East.

I love the optimism in here, but IF (big IF) everything was supposed to go exactly right for the Raptors this season, then we have a lot to be excited about. That's some lofty expectation right there? What if 2-3 players underacheive and don't play at the level we expect them to?

Last edited by Austin Ayala; 07-30-2009 at 07:03 PM.
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Old 07-30-2009, 07:01 PM   #2 (permalink)
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I'd suggest that we have just the right balance of youth and maturity. Most of our players are actually "young vets" (Bosh, Jack, Calderon, Wright, even Hedo), some are grizzled (Evans, Rasho) while others are youngsters (Beli, Bargs somewhat, DeRozan).
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Old 07-30-2009, 07:22 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Bargnani can EASILY defend kg,Perkins or Rasheed
he can easily defend all pf/c with the exception of shaq, Howard,big z and yao
he did a decent job on howard too, because we won 2 gms and andreea single coveraged Dwight
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Old 07-30-2009, 07:29 PM   #4 (permalink)
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As for match-ups, and especially front-court match-ups: can you name a team that matches well defensively with an offensive front-court of Hedo-Bosh-Bargs? I mean, those three can run pick-and-roll between any two of them without involving a point guard! (Well, almost, realistically Hedo would have to handle the ball).
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Old 07-30-2009, 08:10 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Austin Ayala when looking at the Toronto Raptors I agree that on paper
BC's moves all look Amazing. The unknown is how all these new pieces
will fit together once the season starts. I will not try to project the minutes
or how many points per game that each person will have on the team
because that's crazy. Many things come in to factor and I'll leave that up to
Jay Triano and Marc Lavaroni. Are we as tough as Clevland, Boston or
Orlando? Realistically I would have to say No. When I think of are physical
players and tough guys it honestly takes me a while to come up with
two players. Evans and Nesterovic?
Age and Maturity is a big concern for some people on DeMar DeRozan.
I think he will have a Derrick Rose Impact with the Raptors. I've watched
him from high school to college to summer league. He has improved at
every level and I honestley believe no one is giving this guy any credit.
Everyone wants to spoon feed him and I think he is ready to start and
contribute right away. Rose averaged 17pg 6ass and 4 reb. in his first
season and I expect no less from Derozan. The good thing is we have
depth at the two guard spot with Jack, Wright and Belinelli being able
to play multiple postions so if Derozn struggles it's not the end of the
world.
Im not worried about Hedo Turkoglu he is a proven player that will bring
the right element to the Raptors. Clutch shoots, three piont shooting, and
the ability to handle the rock and make good plays in key situations.
Can Turkoglu be an All-star. Yes it will depend on how he will play on
both ends of the floor. Defense will be key in the frontcourt.
This is are year and I have the Raptors to finish 3rd in the East behind
Cleveland and Boston even if two or three player underachieve.
Send me to the Psychiatric Ward.
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Old 07-30-2009, 09:47 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Austin Ayala View Post
Hello all...
1. Physicality and toughness in the post.
Someone else said it best... "SF in a C's body".
that was meant to be a compliment to his shooting and ball handling abilities.
The only think that separates andreea from a legit, traditional centre, is his low post game. On defense he's much better than some give him credit, and better than average among center in all categories (+/-, defensive rebounding, blocks etc).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Austin Ayala View Post
When I think of the Raptor's front court, I don't see them following either model. I just don't see them matching up well against Cleveland, Orlando, or Boston just yet. Can finesse make up for all the toughness they lack? I would be worried.
we should match well with boston, badly against the cavs and so-so against the magic. We usually play well against orlando, because they can't defend Bosh well. It should be one of the greatest season series against them I think.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Austin Ayala View Post
Take DeRozan as an example. A low percentage of rookies make an impact in the NBA right away, so what makes you think that DeRozan is that guy? How many PPG can you realistically expect from him? What if he fails to meet your expectations? What is the Raptor's contingency plan?
not much is expected of him, and we have wright, belinelli and jack ready to step in if necessary.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Austin Ayala View Post
We know what to expect from Bosh. I am a little worried about Barganani and we all rave about the raptor's scoring depth. What about Hedo? He's a bit of a wildcard here. Will he fit into Triano's system?

Can he be a 15+ PPG player and play solid defense? Can he be a star forward? Can he himself make up for all the defensive deficiencies the Raptors have in the front court? Time will tell.
hedu can fit in any system because he's smart, skilled and excellent passer - he will be the leader on the court.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Austin Ayala View Post
Love the Raps. However, I would not be completely shocked with a 9th-10th place finish in the East.
you should be. Barring injuries, that's as likely as us winning the conference.
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Old 07-30-2009, 10:26 PM   #7 (permalink)
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9th-10th place??

Austin Burton is that you?
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Old 07-30-2009, 11:11 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Pau Gasol is more of a finesse player as well, and look what the Lakers did this season. I don't think Bynum is very intimidating either. In fact, I wouldn't consider the Lakers one of the top 5 toughest teams in the league. The Lakers had the ability to score alot of points and they played good enough defense. Much like LA, this years Raptors team will score ALOT of points. Mark Iavaroni will implement his defensive strategies and if this team can buy in, we'll be fine. Oh yea and IMO Bargs low post defense is better than Bosh's.
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Old 07-31-2009, 12:35 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Austin Ayala View Post
Hello all...

Recently i've been hearing a lot of optimism towards this new-look team but i have to question how realistic your expectations are. To be completely honest, I'm going to have to be conservative when assessing this team.

QUESTION MARKS FOR THE UPCOMMING SEASON

1. Physicality and toughness in the post.
Can Andrea Bargnani line up with the best of them and not look out of place? Can you see Andrea being the guy that stands up to the Shaq's, Howard's, Perkins' and Garnett's of the east? We all watched Dwight in the playoffs this year. He was beastly in the post and he punished anyone that got in his way. Do the Raps have this player? I saw Andrea play against team Canada and I gotta say that it wasn't pretty for the most part. Just too much finesse and not assertive enough to be a legit bigman in the NBA. (yet) Someone else said it best... "SF in a C's body".

Another model to follow would be a team like Denver. They did not have one player like Howard down low but made up for it with team toughness. Guys like Birdman, Kleiza, Nene, Anthony and Martin are tough SOB's.

When I think of the Raptor's front court, I don't see them following either model. I just don't see them matching up well against Cleveland, Orlando, or Boston just yet. Can finesse make up for all the toughness they lack? I would be worried.

2. Age & Maturity

This team has a lot of young talent. I'm not suggesting that you can't win with a lot of youth, but what I am worried about is unrealistic expectations of some of our players.

Take DeRozan as an example. A low percentage of rookies make an impact in the NBA right away, so what makes you think that DeRozan is that guy? How many PPG can you realistically expect from him? What if he fails to meet your expectations? What is the Raptor's contingency plan?

3. What about Hedo?
We know what to expect from Bosh. I am a little worried about Barganani and we all rave about the raptor's scoring depth. What about Hedo? He's a bit of a wildcard here. Will he fit into Triano's system?

Can he be a 15+ PPG player and play solid defense? Can he be a star forward? Can he himself make up for all the defensive deficiencies the Raptors have in the front court? Time will tell.

Conclusion

Love the Raps. However, I would not be completely shocked with a 9th-10th place finish in the East.

I love the optimism in here, but IF (big IF) everything was supposed to go exactly right for the Raptors this season, then we have a lot to be excited about. That's some lofty expectation right there? What if 2-3 players underacheive and don't play at the level we expect them to?
With all due respect.... that's just crazy talk.

The only way that we DON'T make the playoffs this year is if Bosh, Jose AND Bargs all blow their ACLs.

A 9th or 10th place (likely around the same number of wins as last season) finish with this roster would be the most catastrophic season in Raps history.

Guaranteed.

I understand the need to temper some of the unbridled optimism but let's be realistic here.... there's no WAY that this team isn't good enough to get to the playoffs. Period.
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Old 07-31-2009, 02:13 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Austin Ayala View Post
Hello all...

Recently i've been hearing a lot of optimism towards this new-look team but i have to question how realistic your expectations are. To be completely honest, I'm going to have to be conservative when assessing this team.

QUESTION MARKS FOR THE UPCOMMING SEASON

1. Physicality and toughness in the post.
Can Andrea Bargnani line up with the best of them and not look out of place? Can you see Andrea being the guy that stands up to the Shaq's, Howard's, Perkins' and Garnett's of the east? We all watched Dwight in the playoffs this year. He was beastly in the post and he punished anyone that got in his way. Do the Raps have this player? I saw Andrea play against team Canada and I gotta say that it wasn't pretty for the most part. Just too much finesse and not assertive enough to be a legit bigman in the NBA. (yet) Someone else said it best... "SF in a C's body".

Another model to follow would be a team like Denver. They did not have one player like Howard down low but made up for it with team toughness. Guys like Birdman, Kleiza, Nene, Anthony and Martin are tough SOB's.

When I think of the Raptor's front court, I don't see them following either model. I just don't see them matching up well against Cleveland, Orlando, or Boston just yet. Can finesse make up for all the toughness they lack? I would be worried.
I think we still have a long way to go, but we got Rasho, Evans, and Jack to help us in toughness, none of whom we had last year. I have to say that aside from Marion, those three have to be better defenders than anyone we had last year in their spots. Bargnani should improve; hopefully, he has been putting in hours in the weight room. I don't think it's unfair to expect of him to come into the season as a better defender.


Quote:
2. Age & Maturity

This team has a lot of young talent. I'm not suggesting that you can't win with a lot of youth, but what I am worried about is unrealistic expectations of some of our players.

Take DeRozan as an example. A low percentage of rookies make an impact in the NBA right away, so what makes you think that DeRozan is that guy? How many PPG can you realistically expect from him? What if he fails to meet your expectations? What is the Raptor's contingency plan?

I think our team has a good balance of youth and experience. The core group was there for the last two playoffs and has become better. Also, Bosh, Jose, Hedo, and Bargs all play for their national teams, so that helps too. Look at the Bulls last year. They were an average team at the beginning of the season. After they traded for Salmons and Miller, they became a much more dangerous team that pushed the defending champions to game 7. We have young players just like the Bulls do, but the leadership is there in Bosh, Jose, and Hedo.

Quote:
3. What about Hedo?
We know what to expect from Bosh. I am a little worried about Barganani and we all rave about the raptor's scoring depth. What about Hedo? He's a bit of a wildcard here. Will he fit into Triano's system?

Can he be a 15+ PPG player and play solid defense? Can he be a star forward? Can he himself make up for all the defensive deficiencies the Raptors have in the front court? Time will tell.
He might not become anything more than a 15/5/5 guy here. But what he brings to the team isn't really measured in stats. He proved that he can carry a team on his back, not necessarily making the shot, but having an impact on every play in the clutch.

Quote:
Conclusion

Love the Raps. However, I would not be completely shocked with a 9th-10th place finish in the East.

I love the optimism in here, but IF (big IF) everything was supposed to go exactly right for the Raptors this season, then we have a lot to be excited about. That's some lofty expectation right there? What if 2-3 players underacheive and don't play at the level we expect them to?

Players are going to underachieve. It's true we can't expect everything to work out perfectly, but as you said, there is a lot to be excited about. I think what's so great is this year the risks aren't as high as last years; we had O'Neal, Kapono, Parker, Moon, Ukic underachieve. But they were hardly the players that we have replaced them with. We have many options on the bench now, so if some things don't work out perfectly, we still have back-up plans. Like if Jose goes down, we can get Jack to run point. If DD underachieves, Belinelli should flourish with the added minutes.
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Old 07-31-2009, 03:37 AM   #11 (permalink)
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The main problem will be stopping the big and dominant players (like Howard and Shaq) inside the paint. But we already had that last season. So we can't be worse. If we work out some smart zone, we'll be playing for the top seeds. I am very optimistic.
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Old 07-31-2009, 10:08 AM   #12 (permalink)
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I'm tempering my expectations to the 6th seed. I don't think we're good enough defensively and it seems we're looking to be a running team. I'm not sure Jose's the PG for a running team and I'm not sure Bosh is the PF for a running team. Both play better in a controlled half court tempo.
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Old 07-31-2009, 10:15 AM   #13 (permalink)
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It's totally realistic to expect this team to finish 5-10 games over .500. That should happen. Anything more is being overly ambitious as a fan.

We should be a playoff team, but probably won't get home court advantage.

Not making the playoffs would be a fail of rather epic proportions IMO.
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Old 07-31-2009, 10:22 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Not making the playoffs would be a fail of rather epic proportions IMO.
Slightly, yeah.

What's nice about all the transactions made this summer, aside from actually being able to watch an exciting team, is that we do have the assets to blow it up and rebuild in case things don't go as expected.

I can see this team finishing anywhere from 4-6, barring an implosion from one of the big three teams at the top.
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Old 07-31-2009, 10:23 AM   #15 (permalink)
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We need to take care of business at home and put away teams that we should be beating and the rest will take care of itself.
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Old 07-31-2009, 10:42 AM   #16 (permalink)
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I'm tempering my expectations to the 6th seed. I don't think we're good enough defensively and it seems we're looking to be a running team. I'm not sure Jose's the PG for a running team and I'm not sure Bosh is the PF for a running team. Both play better in a controlled half court tempo.
... and I think you're very much mistaken mate. All of these guys can run and score. They don't need to break the 100 m world record. If Raja Bell can play SSOL (Seven seconds or less offense) then I'm sure Jose and Bosh can too.
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Old 07-31-2009, 11:08 AM   #17 (permalink)
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i agree that 45 - 50 wins would be a good season for this team, that should be more than enough to see playoff action. I also believe that the Cavs will struggle as they have to find ways to feed shaq. sure he played well against us, but he struggled against all of the other teams in the east that had much more strength inside than us.

his totals from last year were 17 ppg, 8.4 rpg - both were down from his career numbers.

Shaq's numbers here

I am not worried about shaq as i know he can't cover anyone we put in the post as we set up low and outside... let's just hope the refs decide to call the defensive zone shaq will employ all season as he has no ability to move more than 5 feet from the basket any more... i see them imploding at some point this season.. Shaq WAS a winner, he destroyed the chemistry in Phoenix and was the problem in miami before he was dealt... i can't see those two huge babies living in the same locker room for an entire season. I think that this team can win as many as 55 games and sneak into 4th place in the conference. I can see them winning 30 or so at home and COULD be a bit over .500 on the road. this team will be a nightmare for many teams this season with so much athletic size on the floor.... if we can play even decent team defense, this team will win a lot more games.

Last edited by takman_777; 07-31-2009 at 11:12 AM. Reason: added some stats...
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Old 07-31-2009, 11:25 AM   #18 (permalink)
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... and I think you're very much mistaken mate. All of these guys can run and score. They don't need to break the 100 m world record. If Raja Bell can play SSOL (Seven seconds or less offense) then I'm sure Jose and Bosh can too.
But here's the rub, when we tried to play uptempo last year, we never really got going. We played our best up tempo offence when we really had AP push the ball upcourt to Marion and we'd see where we go from there. I love Jose, but he's incredibly methodical and alot of the times slowed himself down (I'm guessing due to injury). Plus, to be a successful run-n-gun team you have to attack the paint, something I'm not sure how adept we'll be at doing.

Also, Bosh's conditioning, to me at least, has always been a problem. By February, March, he looks like he's running out of gas.

The two players I can see doing well in that type of offence are Belinelli and Turk because of what they can bring. I'm very skeptical of the others.

The other big question marks are our defence (I don't know if we've really improved there) and our rebounding (outside of Reggie Evans) is still a question.
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Old 07-31-2009, 11:30 AM   #19 (permalink)
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Bosh's conditioning is not really the question, it is his actually size! he is undersized by around 25 to 30 pounds every night, except when we play the Bulls as Noah is about the same size... most guys come in around 250 and he lists at 230 and i seriously doubt he weighs that much, so by february, he is worn down and has his knees wrapped up and his back bound up and his body is just not able to handle the pounding he takes... again, this is one of the points i make when talking about max contract...
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Old 07-31-2009, 11:43 AM   #20 (permalink)
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Bosh's conditioning is not really the question, it is his actually size! he is undersized by around 25 to 30 pounds every night, except when we play the Bulls as Noah is about the same size... most guys come in around 250 and he lists at 230 and i seriously doubt he weighs that much, so by february, he is worn down and has his knees wrapped up and his back bound up and his body is just not able to handle the pounding he takes... again, this is one of the points i make when talking about max contract...
Ummm.....hate to break this to you, but what you're describing is conditioning concerns. Y'know, his body not being able handle it.

And he's a max guy because the market says he's a max guy. For a better example, see real estate. Very few homes are worth 500,000 in downtown T.O., but because the market value of other homes are that, you must pay for it. Hate it, talk to the other owners who paid inflated values for players.
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