Raptors HQ: Gazing Into A Crystal Ball
Old 04-28-2009, 10:39 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Raptors HQ: Gazing Into A Crystal Ball

Good read courtesy of the guys from Raptors HQ.

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Well, whether I think these are the right or wrong moves (to be discussed later), this is my best guess at what transpires this summer. I could be bang on, or I could be completely off. I'd love to hear what others think lies on the horizon for this franchise.

1.Jay Triano will be the head coach and will sign a three year extension


Colangelo was sure to tell the media at his end of season press conference that all the players had the up-most respect for Triano. Colangelo also made it clear that he will sit down with Triano before meeting any other coaches to discuss the season past and the season coming. If BC was seriously considering looking for a new head coach wouldn't he be out there trying to line-up candidates and looking to establish who was interested and/or available? Washington already secured Flip Saunders. The coaching carousel is a fast one and BC doesn't seem inclined to get on.

2.Marc Iavaroni is Jay's number one assistant

Unfortunately at the BC press conference we didn't get the chance to ask what Iavaroni was doing with the team and what he accomplished while there. His response could have been very telling. This is obviously a shot in the dark, but I can't help but think that Marc is somehow involved with the Raps this coming season. Adding him as an assistant coach would likely be a dream scenario for BC in that he gets to keep Triano at a reasonable cost, while brining in someone he likely considered as a head coach at one point. There will be a number of different coaching faces this upcoming season and I would guess Iavaroni is one.

3.Anthony Parker and Carlos Delfino will be wearing familiar jerseys

Based on Colengelo's comments about Delfino you would think “Count Chocula” could have saved this past season single handedly had he not been 'ballin abroad. That is definitely not the case, but the message to Delfino is clear. The Raps want him back and are ready to negotiate. It was clear last summer that league-wide interest in Delfino is not high so hopefully, BC realizes that he will likely be negotiating against no-one but himself. Delfino is a 7th or 8th guy on a Championship team and should be paid accordingly.

Parker is in a different situation in that he is completely free to sign with anyone he so chooses. There will definitely be options for Parker and I expect him to explore all of them. I don't expect him to leave a comfortable situation in Toronto to sign with a mediocre team. I think the only true competition the Raps will have in re-signing him will come from teams with legitimate title aspirations. The chance at a Championship may be an offer he just can't refuse. Teams that come to mind? How about Los Angeles, where he would also be closer to his sister? Parker has indicated he would come back and even play some back-up PG for this team if that was what was asked. He also recognized that the economy is not exactly favouring him signing a big contract this summer. If you were heading into free agency after having started for three straight seasons, would you be making these sorts of statements if you weren't already committed in your mind to coming back at a reasonable price?

4. Marion gets overpaid...by another team

At this point in time I think Colangelo would like to re-sign Marion at a reasonable price. The problem is, based on his track record, Marion won't be looking for a “reasonable price”. This summer Marion will have his agent calling every team in the league looking to secure a substantial deal and then asking Toronto to help make it happen.

Marion will not only be looking for a place that will pay him handsomely, helping to limit the pay cut he is inevitably going to have to take, but a team where he can be featured and where they play to his strengths. The Knicks are the obvious possibility but there will be other teams like Atlanta, Cleveland, or even Golden State that may come into play. Colangelo will somehow extract value out of Shawn Marion despite him being a UFA. It may be by signing him to a reasonable deal, but I am guessing it is by helping another team secure his services.

5. The Raps are active in the draft


In these economic times rookie salary contracts are going to be very valuable. The easiest way to find players who can produce at a high level at a reasonable cost is through the draft. At the same time, some teams are so close to paying the luxury tax that they are not going to be able to take advantage. I expect Colangelo to leverage the poor financial circumstances of other teams to either buy an extra pick or extract a pick in some other way (say, with an expiring contact). This Raptors team is short on young talent and is not particularly deep. The answer is to draft NBA ready players, in particular players that exhibit that toughness that is currently missing. I expect the Raps to target a big man (likely a PF) and a swingman. Players that come to mind right away would include Terrence Williams, DeJuan Blair and even Tyler Hansborough (albeit much later on in the draft).

6. Say So Long to CB4

I fully expect CB4 to be moved this summer and nothing that BC said at his press conference changed my mind. This summer Colangelo controls the process and I expect it to play out as follows. Bosh, his representatives and BC will meet where the Raps will offer Bosh an extension. He will decline. Colangelo, knowing that the longer this plays out the less options he will have, will quietly explore the market for Bosh. When the rumours get out this summer he will simply say that no-one is untouchable and he is looking to improve the team any way he can. He will find a trading partner and he will defend the deal by saying the deal made sense for the long term stability of the franchise and in was in the best interest of the team. Fans will be unhappy and some will likely question what BC gets in return (because it won't include Wade, or James) but the smart one's will realize whatever BC gets this summer will be better than what he would have gotten later on. The deal will (hopefully) include a back-up PG and a quality 2/3.

7. Money will be spent on a new PF

If order to help ease the sting of having traded away the face of the franchise, BC will look to sign another PF who is on the market. As of now there will be some interesting possibilities out there including David Lee (RFA), Paul Millsap (RFA), Charlie Villaneuva (UFA) and possibly Carlos Boozer (opt-out). Not a bad back-up plan if you ask me.

Having written this I am not sure how I would feel if this is what went down this summer. Right now these are my best predictions. Some of them seem much more plausible than others, but all of them are distinct possibilities.

What do you see happening this summer?
Source - Gazing Into A Crystal Ball - RaptorsHQ.com
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Old 04-28-2009, 10:45 AM   #2 (permalink)
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I disagree with number 7.

If Bosh goes there's no doubt in my mind Andrea gets moved to the 4 and we look to grab a centre.
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Old 04-28-2009, 10:46 AM   #3 (permalink)
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7. Money will be spent on a new PF = Paul Millsap (RFA)

this is why Marion can't be resigned


just wondering
let's say the Raps sign Millsap with $9 mil they have available, this gives them no cap space
Can they then sign Delfino to count against the Luxury cap (for re-signings), or does he count against the salary cap (new players)
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Old 04-28-2009, 10:47 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Quote:
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I disagree with number 7.

If Bosh goes there's no doubt in my mind Andrea gets moved to the 4 and we look to grab a centre.
who would that Centre be?
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Old 04-28-2009, 10:47 AM   #5 (permalink)
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We don't have money to sign Milsap unless it's sign and trade.
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Old 04-28-2009, 10:48 AM   #6 (permalink)
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who would that Centre be?
That's not for me to decide, but I'd throw some money at Zaza.
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Old 04-28-2009, 10:50 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Quote:
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That's not for me to decide, but I'd throw some money at Zaza.
Yeah I quite like Zaza too and think he is pretty undervalued.
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Old 04-28-2009, 10:50 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
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We don't have money to sign Milsap unless it's sign and trade.
Raps will be $12 mil under the cap, assuming the cap remains the same, if they don't re-sign Marion, Graham and AP

lets say they sign AP for $2 mil, then $10 mil is left form Milsap
Are you saying he will command more than that?
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Old 04-28-2009, 11:06 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TO2988 View Post
Raps will be $12 mil under the cap, assuming the cap remains the same, if they don't re-sign Marion, Graham and AP

lets say they sign AP for $2 mil, then $10 mil is left form Milsap
Are you saying he will command more than that?
We'll be 12 million under the cap with only 7 or 8 players under contract.
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Old 04-28-2009, 11:07 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
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We'll be 12 million under the cap with only 7 or 8 players under contract.
thats true
but remember that a Bosh trade will most likely end up bringing in more players than we would send out for the same amount of $$$
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Old 04-28-2009, 11:08 AM   #11 (permalink)
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He thinks Delfino is 7th or 8th on a championship team?

So what is he on a non playoff, non championship team?

I agree with most of this, BC will aquire another draft pick (20th-30th),CB4 will be dealt (S&T), and Marion will also go in a S&T. But imo Triano coming back is 50/50 at this point otherwise he wouldn't be waiting this long and wouldn't be meeting with Messina next week.
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Old 04-28-2009, 11:10 AM   #12 (permalink)
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thats true
but remember that a Bosh trade will most likely end up bringing in more players than we would send out for the same amount of $$$
Yup, 3 for 1 in a S&T scenario. Or possibly Bosh and filler (banks or Krapono) for 3 players/pick?
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Old 04-28-2009, 11:40 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Acie is right.
Bargs is no centre. He only plays there because Chris gets the minutes at the 4. Period.
Without CB, Bargs moves (stays?) to the high post and BC has to get a low post banger.
Maybe that player comes in a Bosh deal. If not then Zaza would be a really nice fit.
That would begin to address the toughness issue. Primarily by subtraction if you ask me.
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Old 04-28-2009, 12:02 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Acie View Post
That's not for me to decide, but I'd throw some money at Zaza.
Troy Murphy complimenting Zaza after last night's performance.

Courtesy of Troy's Twitter account:

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Originally Posted by troy_murphy
Watched heat/hawks last night. pachulia was a beast inside.. could go 7. Saw the nuggets score and thought it was mistake?
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Old 04-28-2009, 02:20 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Good article. I disagree with the Marion thing though, in a normal summer someone would throw out a dumb Maggette like contract, but in this recession, nah. I think his value lowers to the MLE and he signs with a more attractable team
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Old 04-28-2009, 04:49 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Acie I agree with you, if Bosh is gonna be moved I would think the BC wants Bargs to play the four(his natural position) and then we can get a good rebounding and tough center to help out Bargs on the down low
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Old 04-28-2009, 04:51 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Well then it's settled.

Acie for GM.
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Old 04-28-2009, 04:52 PM   #18 (permalink)
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I second
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Old 04-28-2009, 05:11 PM   #19 (permalink)
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GM = Goofy Mod
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Old 04-29-2009, 09:55 AM   #20 (permalink)
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i don't think a tough/rebounding center is definitely require.
a tough/rebounding PF could do the job beside Bargnani as well.

in fact....i think Bargnani is better off at center.
he's not a bruiser, but he's quicker than most centers......at PF guys like Bosh, Beasley, Garnett, Josh Smith, T. Thomas, Gasol can all beat him off the dribble
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