Raptors Cap/Tax Status - Page 25
Old 07-05-2014, 05:59 PM   #481 (permalink)
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apparently portland made him an extension offer worth 20M/year for 5 years, he'd be stupid to turn that down. That's way overpaying him btw, at 20M, I don't even want aldridge. He's a good, but not top tier player imo.

If you have a choice between milsap at 12 and aldridge at 20, to me that's a very, very easy decision. In fact, I'd take milsap over aldrige even at at the same salary.
I would take Aldridge in a heart beat. He's a beast.
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Old 07-05-2014, 06:13 PM   #482 (permalink)
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@DanH;
can you tell me if we can make a sign and trade with cleveland for deng (33M/3yr) and they get GV(16M/3yrs)+ Bucks + tpe [Gay), is it possible ?

if so, would we have the MLE (or part of it) to get Tucker, Carter or Chris Anderson ?
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Old 07-05-2014, 07:06 PM   #483 (permalink)
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I would take Aldridge in a heart beat. He's a beast.
yeah, so is milsap, but milsap can hit the 3 at a very good clip and is a much better defender and will abuse you in the post if you're not on your game. Aldridge is a fantastic jump shooter, but he needs shots to be effective. Milsap can take 10 shots a game and still have a huge impact on the court.

milsap is to aldridge what lowry is to lilard. For the same salary, it's debatable who's better. If one makes 50% more than the other though, not so much ...
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Old 07-05-2014, 07:34 PM   #484 (permalink)
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If salaries are equal I take Aldridge.
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Old 07-05-2014, 07:59 PM   #485 (permalink)
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@DanH;
can you tell me if we can make a sign and trade with cleveland for deng (33M/3yr) and they get GV(16M/3yrs)+ Bucks + tpe [Gay), is it possible ?

if so, would we have the MLE (or part of it) to get Tucker, Carter or Chris Anderson ?
Not possible - you cannot combine TPE's with players in a trade.
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Old 07-05-2014, 08:04 PM   #486 (permalink)
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Blazers can't offer him an extension like that. They can offer him a new contract, but he can't sign it until next July when he's a free agent. It's the same situation Bosh was in when he was here. If they miss the playoffs or lose in the first round this year, I expect him to at least listen to offers.
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Old 07-05-2014, 09:36 PM   #487 (permalink)
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Blazers can't offer him an extension like that. They can offer him a new contract, but he can't sign it until next July when he's a free agent. It's the same situation Bosh was in when he was here. If they miss the playoffs or lose in the first round this year, I expect him to at least listen to offers.
well somehow they did, because it was reported on espn and I did a search and it definitely happened:

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/ap-sou...8861--nba.html
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Old 07-05-2014, 09:43 PM   #488 (permalink)
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well somehow they did, because it was reported on espn and I did a search and it definitely happened:

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/ap-sou...8861--nba.html
I don't question that it was reported that way. It was reported wrong. They are offering him a new contract - not an extension - and he can't accept until next July.
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Old 07-06-2014, 12:17 AM   #489 (permalink)
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I don't question that it was reported that way. It was reported wrong. They are offering him a new contract - not an extension - and he can't accept until next July.
appears you are right, the 5 year extension is not really an extension, it's a new contract. Seems bizarre they are offering him a new contract now, given that it can't be signed for another year and has no legal value until then.

makes you wonder what they will do if aldrige plays like shit next season, will they renege on the promise, or they'll behave like gentleman and keep the offer on the table
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Old 07-06-2014, 06:48 PM   #490 (permalink)
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Ah, yes, and of course we now generate another TPE, for 3.75M dollars.

Just swimming in those now.

Oh, and the MLE is 5.35M this year, trane.
Thanks Gents. Without the ability to combine our MLE with any available cap space, it seems to me that we're not going to be able to make a big splash with a RFA/UFA this year....barring any type of trade.

But I'm no GM so we'll see what MU can put together. Being pleased with his work so far this off season is an understatement.
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Old 07-06-2014, 06:51 PM   #491 (permalink)
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So, we shed Novak's deal for Garret, who is unguaranteed and will be waived. That clears 3.75M off the cap this year and 3.4M off the cap next year. Fantastic deal. Now we almost certainly have room for both GV and a full MLE guy to play the 3, and we max out our cap room next summer. I'll break it down more later when we know what deals everyone gets, including front loading and back loading.

Who are the top 5 MLE players available to play the 3?
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Old 07-06-2014, 08:15 PM   #492 (permalink)
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Who are the top 5 MLE players available to play the 3?
I suppose the list varies from person to person, but some names I've seen thrown out there are Ariza, Carter, Marvin Williams. Whether any of them would take the MLE or be overpaid, who knows.
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Old 07-06-2014, 09:09 PM   #493 (permalink)
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I suppose the list varies from person to person, but some names I've seen thrown out there are Ariza, Carter, Marvin Williams. Whether any of them would take the MLE or be overpaid, who knows.
Carter last year made under 4mil and he's long in the tooth. Can't see him commanding the full MLE. Ariza might command full MLE but I think it would take 6mil to get him. Marvin Williams would be a decent pickup and I see him in the 4-5mil range.
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Old 07-06-2014, 10:16 PM   #494 (permalink)
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Carter last year made under 4mil and he's long in the tooth. Can't see him commanding the full MLE. Ariza might command full MLE but I think it would take 6mil to get him. Marvin Williams would be a decent pickup and I see him in the 4-5mil range.

I really like the Ariza option, but assuming we would need to go to $6M per (which still looks to be good value), and assuming we don't want to pay the tax, could we even afford him?

I'm really looking forward to some cap simulations from you guys.
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Old 07-07-2014, 08:07 AM   #495 (permalink)
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I really like the Ariza option, but assuming we would need to go to $6M per (which still looks to be good value), and assuming we don't want to pay the tax, could we even afford him?

I'm really looking forward to some cap simulations from you guys.
The MLE starts at 5.305M and is for up to 4 years. A 4 year deal would average 5.7M, a 3 year deal would average 5.5M. So that's what we can offer him. Close to 6 M per, but not quite.
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Old 07-07-2014, 08:50 AM   #496 (permalink)
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The MLE starts at 5.305M and is for up to 4 years. A 4 year deal would average 5.7M, a 3 year deal would average 5.5M. So that's what we can offer him. Close to 6 M per, but not quite.
I also like the skills that Ariza can bring to the game but I find he's a really streaky shooter and somewhat of a head case. I like his 3 point shooting and his defense. His skill set fits well on this team but I'm not sure he himself does.
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Old 07-07-2014, 09:06 AM   #497 (permalink)
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The MLE starts at 5.305M and is for up to 4 years. A 4 year deal would average 5.7M, a 3 year deal would average 5.5M. So that's what we can offer him. Close to 6 M per, but not quite.
Good to know. Thx.

My guess is that that won't be enough for him.
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Old 07-07-2014, 04:12 PM   #498 (permalink)
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... as we wait for more news.

Kyle Lowry $12,000,000 (AAV)
DeMar DeRozan $9,500,000
Amir Johnson $7,000,000 (5 M guar)
Landry Fields $6,250,000
Patrick Patterson $6,000,000 (AAV)
Chuck Hayes $5,958,750
Lou Williams $5,450,000
Jonas Valanciunas $3,678,360
Tyler Hansbrough $3,326,235
Terrence Ross $2,793,960
Julyan Stone $948,163 (unguaranteed until 7th July)
Diante Garrett $915,243 (unguaranteed)
Dwight Buycks $816,482 (unguaranteed until 22nd July)
Marcus Camby $646,609 (buyout)

Greivis Vasquez $5,375,470 (cap hold; $3,898,090 QO)
Nando de Colo $1,901,900 (cap hold; $1,828,750 QO)
Lucas (BeBe) Nogueira $1,468,900* (cap hold; will probably sign for 120% of this)
Bruno Caboclo $1,215,300 (cap hold; will probably sign for 120% of this)

Above roster, with all free agents released (not incl draft picks), and Stone and Buycks and Garrett waived, and picks signed to 120%: $65,824,954

Estimated:
Cap: 63.2 M
Tax: 77 M
Apron/Hard Cap: 81 M

*BeBe's amount is slightly higher now - I had previously pulled from his 2013-14 salary scale, but since he'd be signing this year, he actually follows the scale salary for this year's draft picks.

---

Note that I've put an AAV (average annual value) note next to Lowry and Patterson, as we don't know yet what their contract structure is like. Their starting salaries could range from 10.8M to 13.5M (Lowry), and from 5.6M to 6.5M (Patterson).

So we are expecting about 11.2M below the tax to play with. This number can be as high as 12.8M and as low as 9.2M (plus could be a little shift in the actual tax level relative to the projections). That number needs to envelope GV's first year, the first year of any MLE deal we sign, plus Daniels' deal if we end up signing him (we will have a roster spot to fill after GV and MLE, assuming all 3 of the unguaranteed guys are waived).

---

Thus ends the educational portion, and now here is my wish for signings this offseason and the minutiae of how they are structured.

Let me start by saying I'm looking to maximize cap space next summer, as well as maximize expirings and assets for a potential Durant sign-and-trade bid in 2016. I'll also put together a scenario where we look at how much cap room we could generate in 2016 for a straight up signing of Durant.

Lowry: 12M AAV is established. But you can structure the deal to a) free up cap room next year and b) discourage him from opting out in 2017 (not that that matters that much right now). Valley around 2015, max raises to the end of the contract. That means 12.0M, 11.1M, 12.0M, 12.9M (ETO).

Patterson: 6M AAV established. Same idea. 6.15M, 5.7M, 6.15M.

MLE signing: 5.305M starting salary. I'd like to see Wes Johnson or some other wing who does NOT deserve the MLE brought in, so that you can leverage a couple non-guaranteed years (with no guarantee date, or a date after July 12th) with the drastic overpay in the first year. I would still valley the second year in case he works out in the role and you decide to keep him. 5.3M, 5.1M (unguar), 5.3M (unguar).

Daniels: Now, maybe you don't sign him, but maybe you want room to bring in a minimum guy if you need to, so we should set aside the space. Note that for tax purposes, he counts as a 2-year vet anyway, so this is a very generic spaceholder. Vet deal is $915,243. We sign him to a minimum deal ($507,336) and get two unguaranteed deals thereafter at the minimum ($845,059; $980,431).

Vasquez: That leaves Vasquez. We have, at this point, 24.37M committed to the previous 4 players. And a total of 72.2M committed to the roster as a whole. That leaves 4.8M to offer GV as a starting salary. And the important thing here is that he takes a 3 year deal, and you valley in the second year. So, 4.8M, 4.4M, 4.8M. 3 years and 14M. Is that enough to re-sign him? I think so. He wants to be here, and almost 5M per year is pretty nice for a backup.

That leaves us up against the tax this year, with no wiggle room for trades where we take back salary, but I don't think trades are the plan this season.

And with that assumption (no trades this year), we come to next summer.

Summer 2015:

Kyle Lowry $11,100,000
DeMar DeRozan $9,500,000
Patrick Patterson $5,692,307
Wes Johnson (example MLE overpay): $5,066,275 (unguar)
Greivis Vasquez $4,440,885
Jonas Valanciunas $4,660,482
Terrence Ross $3,553,917
Lucas (BeBe) Nogueira $1,842,000
Bruno Caboclo $1,524,000
DeAndre Daniels $845,059 (unguar)
2015 1st rounder (assumed 20th): $1,257,800

Nando de Colo $1,901,900 (cap hold; $1,828,750 QO)

That's 50.5M committed, with a salary cap of 66.5M projected. 16M in cap room. Now, if we manage to get a max level guy to commit (say a Kevin Love), we can waive our MLE overpay guy and get that 4.6M additional room - enough to offer 20.6M starting salary which is pretty much the max for most guys (the rare exception is a guy like Melo who is at 22M).

But if we can't get a max level guy, we keep our overpaid MLE guy and guarantee his second year (leaving his third still unguaranteed), sign a Millsap level second tier star to a less than 16M contract (say, 12M starting salary), and use the room MLE and minimum deals to fill out the roster (on one year deals only).

Then, 2016:

Operating above the cap now, so I won't list cap holds except for the key re-signings.

Example - Paul Millsap $12,540,000 (second year of a 12M contract)
Kyle Lowry $12,000,000
Patrick Patterson $6,153,846 (expiring)
Wes Johnson (example MLE overpay): $5,305,000 (unguar)
Greivis Vasquez $4,800,957 (expiring)
Lucas (BeBe) Nogueira $1,921,320
Bruno Caboclo $1,589,640
DeAndre Daniels $980,431 (unguar)
2015 1st rounder (assumed 20th): $1,577,280
2016 1st rounder (assumed 20th): $1,562,280 (cap hold is lower)
2016 1st rounder (NYK/DEN assumed 10th): $2,568,600 (cap hold is lower)

DeMar DeRozan $14,250,000
Jonas Valanciunas $11,651,205
Terrence Ross $8,884,793

Total committed salary including cap holds: 89.9M

Now, maybe JV gets a little more, maybe Ross gets a little less, but let's just say they extend for roughly their cap hold amounts. DD re-signs at a starting salary of his cap hold as well.

Cap: 70M projected
Tax: 85M projected
Apron: 89M projected

So. We then look to sign and trade for the disgruntled Durant after Westbrook let him down again in the playoffs and OKC lost Reggie Jackson in RFA because they are cheap.

Durant's max contract will be 21.2M starting salary. A sign and trade of expiring contracts (Patterson, Vasquez, Wes Johnson MLE guy, and our 2015 draft pick sophomore) would be enough to fit cap-wise. They would obviously want picks included, so we'd send both our recent 2016 picks as well. They would waive MLE guy, saving 5.3M right there, and have two young and decent pieces in GV and Patterson on expiring deals, as well as three recent draft picks, one possibly a top 10 pick. We could include future picks as well, but they would be worth less, as we'd expect to be a powerhouse.

At this point, our commitments would look like this for 2016-17:

Kevin Durant - $21,166,553
DeMar DeRozan $14,250,000
Example - Paul Millsap $12,540,000
Kyle Lowry $12,000,000
Jonas Valanciunas $11,651,205
Terrence Ross $8,884,793
Lucas (BeBe) Nogueira $1,921,320
Bruno Caboclo $1,589,640
DeAndre Daniels $980,431 (unguar)

Total committed salary including cap holds: 85.0M

Add in four minimum salary guys at 980k each (for tax purposes) and we are sitting at 88.9M (which we need to do, as we are participating in a sign and trade and are hard capped at 89M). Then the next year we can start adding players via rookie contracts, tax-payer's MLE, and trades. In the meantime, our depth chart looks like this:

PG: Lowry, min, min
SG: DeRozan, Ross
SF: Durant, Daniels, min
PF: Millsap, Caboclo
C: JV, BeBe, min

Fun times.

Last edited by DanH; 07-07-2014 at 04:14 PM.
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Old 07-09-2014, 05:09 PM   #499 (permalink)
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Official cap and tax numbers.

Cap: $63.065M
Tax: $76.829M
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Old 07-09-2014, 05:10 PM   #500 (permalink)
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So according to one rumour that the Vasquez deal was waiting on the tax numbers, we should hear something soon on that front.
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