Raps project as a playoff team using xWarp
Old 09-22-2013, 10:43 AM   #1 (permalink)
landry fields forever

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Default Raps project as a playoff team using xWarp

Pretty good, Raps fans. Pretty, pretty good. The Raptors project to be just very slightly better than the new-look Pistons, but they both project to win 39 games- after adjusting the win totals so that they properly sum to 1230 leaguewide or, more accurately, so that total xRAPM sums to 0, as it must by definition. The Raps and Pistons project to finish 7th and 8th, respectively, in the East. Right on their heels should be Cleveland and Washington- though I projected Washington prior to the news of Emeka Okafor’s indefinite absence due to a neck injury, so maybe they’ll be out of the running, as he was one of their stronger expected xRAPM contributors. Looking at the injuries Washington has already suffered and the relatively injury prone Cleveland roster, I’d say that if I had to bet on it things, the Raptors and Pistons seem to be by far the best bets of these 4 teams to snag those last two playoff spots.

How do the Raptors look to get it done? Well, they’ve got a strong starting five lead by the unheralded, but dynamic xRAPM combo of Amir Johnson and Kyle Lowry, who both project to be very, very good players. Rudy Gay projects to be slightly above average, as ever. Jonas Valanciunas projects to improve significantly, getting him close to average level xRAPM, at a very young age – which bodes well for his future. Landry Fields is also around, looking likely to be very average overall and remaining laughably overpaid for that very average play. I hope he’s sending a portion of those checks to a charity of Steve Nash’s choosing. DeMar DeRozan will help and he’ll excite with his flashy play, but he still projects to be a bit below average and he’ll probably never live up to his own rather large contract. It’ll be interesting to see if Masai Ujiri attempts to move either of those last two. Even if Ujiri makes no moves, though, this current Raptors roster has a very good chance at playing games in late April. Rejoice, Raptors fans!
Projecting the NBA using xWARP: Toronto Raptors
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Old 09-22-2013, 11:00 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Old 09-22-2013, 11:17 AM   #3 (permalink)
sticking to his guns... is stuck to his guns...

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They projected well last year too. No system can account for the Dwane Casey rotations effect.
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Old 09-22-2013, 11:50 AM   #4 (permalink)
Likes raw prospects with a great work ethic...

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no system can account for new players, chemistry, rookies, injuries etc, either.

cleveland could struggle and not make playoffs, or everything goes right and they're pushing that top 6.
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Old 09-22-2013, 12:16 PM   #5 (permalink)
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People who love advanced stats because they work on baseball keep forgetting that baseball is not really a team sport.
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