The Raps' performance since Calderon returned
Old 01-21-2010, 08:20 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default The Raps' performance since Calderon returned

Since there has been talk about Calderon getting traded, and since a couple of users have speculated that Caldy's defence is hurting the team, I decided to look into some stats since Calderon returned.

Also, this post might give people an idea of how the team is playing at the mid way point of the season, while using the current lineup and rotation.

Context: the Raps are 4-4 since Caldy returned. 6 road games and 2 at home. 2 back to backs. 4 games have been against elite opponents: Orlando, Boston, Dallas, and Cleveland. Given the circumstances of these 8 games, I don't think anyone should say...."it was a really easy schedule." But nothing around here surprises me, to be honest.

Caldy's individual stats in the 8 games since returning:

MPG: 24.1
PPG: 11.8
RPG: 1.8
APG: 5.5
FG%: .514
3FG%: .444
A/TO ratio: 4.4/1
SPG: 0.9

+/- = +37
(He had a positive rating in 6 games. Cleveland and Boston were the only games he had a negative).


Raps team defence during the 8 games:

Opp. FG%: .461
Opp. 3FG%: .358
Opp. PPG: 103.9

Keep in mind that the Raps play a faster pace than most teams, so they're more likely to give up over 100ppg due to the amount of possesions each team gets. A positive sign is that the Raps won 3 games while the opposition scored over 100. It used to be an almost automatic loss when the opposition scored 100+. Over the 8 game stretch, the Raps went 3-4 when the opposition scored 100+. Prior to Calderon's return, the Raps were 4-18 when they gave up 100+. They've made a big stride in that area. The Raps did a decent job defending the three ball and held the opposition to a decent fg%.

Raps team offence during the 8 games:

FG%: .484
3FG%: .401
PPG: 106.6

Not bad. And all that was happening while Turk was having a tough time. Jose helping the 2nd unit balanced things out.

Raps' rebounding over the 8 game stretch:

DRB: + 0.25 per
ORB: -3.1 per

The opposition is missing more shots, so you'd expect the Raps to have more DRBs and the opposition to have more chances at ORBs. The long rebounds off opponents' missed 3 balls are probably a problem. But let's be honest, rebounding is always a bit of an issue, regardless of whether or not Jose is starting.

My thoughts:

1) Caldy is playing pretty well as a 6th man and, for the most part, it is working well for the team. It's not just b.s from pro-Raptor announcers.

2) In my humble opinion, Jay should NOT cut back Caldy's minutes, although I think he should remain coming off the bench. If the Raps keep him, his role as a 6th man, who plays at least 24 minutes, could be very valuable, especially if he looks for his own shot. Even with Turk struggling, the offense has been great the past 8 games. If the Raps want to trade Caldy, then they need to keep showcasing his skills. Cutting Caldy's minutes is a bad idea.

3) If we're going to talk about trading Caldy, I think we should do it for the right reasons, such as his history of injuries, ditching his contract, or a great offer being on the table. I do not think his play as a 6th man is grounds for complaints.

4) It will be interesting to see if Caldy keeps torching second units in the remaining 10 games before the trade-deadline. Personally, I hope Jay keeps Jose coming off the bench.
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Old 01-21-2010, 09:09 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Fantastic post.
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Old 01-21-2010, 09:39 PM   #3 (permalink)
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What were the rap's defensive rating of

Raptors with Calderon

vs.

Raptors without Calderon (ie... Banks).

Nice post though! Fantistic info
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Old 01-21-2010, 09:52 PM   #4 (permalink)
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I like Calderon off the bench a lot

He's the better overal player compared to jack, but he's not as comfortable without the ball as jack is, and we need his offense more with the 2nd unit. He was great in several of our victories, when he came shooting and helped us pull away or stay in the game. and his defense is not as critical against the opposing reserves.
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Old 01-21-2010, 10:30 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bmats7 View Post
What were the rap's defensive rating of

Raptors with Calderon

vs.

Raptors without Calderon (ie... Banks).

Nice post though! Fantistic info

Another good question, bmats. I'll look into that and post it in this thread, unless someone else does. You might be right that they are better defensively with Banks. But I'd be more concerned with the point differential. From what I can tell with just my eyes and no stats, Banks is a better defender than Jose. But Jose has a pretty good +/- coming off the bench. Plus, if the Raps are going to try and trade Jose, they gotta give him minutes in order to make that happen.
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Old 01-21-2010, 10:32 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Nice thread ACGM.

Those are nice stats and I like Jose coming off the bench.
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Old 01-21-2010, 10:43 PM   #7 (permalink)
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He fits as a sixth man. When he has too many guys with games that need to get off, it hurts his individual game. Off the bench he can find a much better balance, and ironically, when he is more of a threat himself, then he becomes that much better as an assist guy.
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Old 01-21-2010, 10:53 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by •LX• View Post
He fits as a sixth man. When he has too many guys with games that need to get off, it hurts his individual game. Off the bench he can find a much better balance, and ironically, when he is more of a threat himself, then he becomes that much better as an assist guy.
+100
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Old 01-21-2010, 11:05 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Here are the Defensive Ratings for when Calderon was in, and when Calderon was out. Keep in mind that this is a correlation, and causal factors are obscured by other things (like toughness of schedule and overall team effort).

In the 8 games since Calderon has come back, the Raptors have a defensive rating of 112.06.

In the 13 games prior to that, the Raptors had a defensive rating of 108.43.

So with Calderon, we are the worst defensive team in the league. Without Calderon, we are the 20th rated defensive team in the league.
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Old 01-21-2010, 11:08 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Ligeia View Post
So with Calderon, we are the worst defensive team in the league. Without Calderon, we are the 20th rated defensive team in the league.
Interesting.
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Old 01-21-2010, 11:18 PM   #11 (permalink)
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You got Twitter or personal blog, ArmChairGM?

You should catch a job at ESPN or somewhere there.

Impressive dude.
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Old 01-21-2010, 11:31 PM   #12 (permalink)
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It looks even worse when you take the whole season into consideration.

Without Calderon, 108.4
With Calderon, 115.6

Now keep in mind that this includes all of the beginning of the season, which means that it was a time when undoubtedly the entire team was discombulated on the defensive end (which is not to say that they're much better now). We can't say for certain what portion of our defensive woes are accounted for by Calderon, but he's certainly not helping.
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Old 01-22-2010, 12:28 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bmats7 View Post
What were the rap's defensive rating of

Raptors with Calderon

vs.

Raptors without Calderon (ie... Banks).

Nice post though! Fantistic info
Okay, we've now got the defensive rating, thanks to Legia's very helpful post. But that particular stat adds a bit of misdirection; I'll elaborate in a different post. I'm going to post some of Banks's stats and the Raptors' team stats while Jose was out. Banks took over as the primary back up for 12 games. Jose briefly came back for one game against Atlanta, but then left again. Here are the stats during those 12 games. This will help contextualize why the Raps look better without Jose. It's not necessarily due to Banks playing minutes as back up, but rather Jack's increased role as the starter.

Banks's individual stats while serving as the primary back up:

Minutes: 12.9
FG%: 49%
3FG%: 22%
PPG: 4.7
APG: 1.1
RPG: 1.5
SPG: 0.5
A/TO ratio: 1.5/1

Overall +/- = -11

But, to be fair to Marcus, he was getting better near the end. He started out putting up 7 straight games of negative ratings, inluding against NJ and Minnesota. In the final 5 games he was a +26. Bmats, that might be why it appeared that he was playing good D. Near the end of that 12 game stretch, he actually was doing a decent job.

The Raps record during that 12 game stretch was 8-4. 7 homes games and 5 road games. They went 7-0 at home during that stretch.

Here are the basic team stats for the Raps. On offence:

PPG: 99.1
FG%: .471
3FG%: .323

Raps basic defensive stats, or opponents numbers:

PPG: 97
FG%: .441
3FG%: .279


As a team, the defensive stats are great. But, based on Marcus's overall numbers, I'd say it has more to do with Jack playing over 35 minutes per game.

I'm not going to say the Raps had a really easy schedule, but it was most definitely easier than when Calderon has been in the lineup. The only win against an elite team came against the Spurs. The Raps had two games against Detroit, and additional games against Minnesota and New Jersey. Just adding some context to this. The Raps got absolutely slaughtered on the road by Milwaukee (22 point loss), Orlando (19 point loss), and Miami (20 point loss). The only road win came against Detroit, who was missing Gordon, Hamilton, and Prince.

Now, contrast that with the 8 games since Jose's return as the backup. The Raps won 3 roads games against Orlando, New York, and Philly. And they were still competitive in the 3 that they lost. The Indiana game should have been won. The Milwaukee game could have been won. And the Raps were competitive in the Cleveland game. The Milwaukee and Indiana games were back to backs and the Raps were far more competitive in those games than they normally are on back to backs. Earlier in the year, they were getting slaughtered on back to backs with Jose as the starter.

Point differential tells you more than the defensive rating. I'll elaborate in another post.

I think one thing is definitely clear, though: Jack should start. The distribution of minutes might be up for debate, so long as Caldy is here, but I think most will agree that Jack should start.
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Old 01-22-2010, 01:34 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ligeia View Post
Here are the Defensive Ratings for when Calderon was in, and when Calderon was out. Keep in mind that this is a correlation, and causal factors are obscured by other things (like toughness of schedule and overall team effort).

In the 8 games since Calderon has come back, the Raptors have a defensive rating of 112.06.

In the 13 games prior to that, the Raptors had a defensive rating of 108.43.

So with Calderon, we are the worst defensive team in the league. Without Calderon, we are the 20th rated defensive team in the league.
Okay, I'm going to address why "defensive rating" can sometimes be very misleading. First off, this is not a criticism of Legia's post, since he was just answering a question. And it was a good question, too, since it has helped clear up some things regarding the point guard situation.

1 - Wins, and having a chance to win, matter more than defensive rating. The "defensive rating" stat is kind of ironic when applied to the 8 games since Caldy's return. Why? Well, the Raps point differential in the 8 games since Caldy returned is +2.7. It was +2.1 during the 12 games that he was out. His offensive "pop" off the bench as a 6th man, compensates for his densive shortcomings. It's possible that Caldy is a liability near the end of games, though, when the opposition has their best lineup in. I wouldn't be surprised if the Raps were better off with Jack finishing games.

2 - Wins. Since Caldy has been back, the Raps have won 3 road games, including one against Orlando. They absolutely destroyed Dallas at home. The Mavs came into that game with the 3rd best road record in the league. I'll re-iterate what I said in my previous post (I'll just copy and paste this paragraph). In the 12 games that Jose was out, the only win against an elite team came against the Spurs. The Raps got absolutely slaughtered on the road by Milwaukee (22 point loss), Orlando (19 point loss), and Miami (20 point loss). The only road win came against Detroit, who was missing Gordon, Hamilton, and Prince.

Now, contrast that with the 8 games since Jose's return as the backup. The Raps won 3 roads games against Orlando, New York, and Philly. And they were still competitive in the 3 road games that they lost. The Indiana game should have been won. The Milwaukee game could have been won. And the Raps were competitive in the Cleveland game. The Milwaukee and Indiana games were back to backs and the Raps were far more competitive in those games than they normally are on back to backs. Earlier in the year, they were getting slaughtered on back to backs with Jose as the starter and Jack coming off the bench.

3) A team can have a good "defensive rating", while still having a negative point differential and a losing record. Conversely, you can get what the Raps did over the past 8 games: put up a poor "defensive rating", while still having a positive point differential and .500 record (which includes road wins and solid performances against some elite opponents).

Point differential and wins can sometimes tell you more than "defensive rating." Depending on the context (toughness of schedule and style of play of the team involved), the "defensive rating" can misdirect you from the actual results of games.

As I said earlier, I wouldn't be surprised if finishing the game with Jack is better for the Raps. Other forum users might think that's a better idea, too. I don't know. If Jose is getting traded, though, it will be important to get him enough minutes to convince the other team that he is a solid 6th man. Well, that's just my opinion. Maybe they can sell Jose without him playing 24 minutes.
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Old 01-22-2010, 01:57 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArmChairGM View Post
1) Caldy is playing pretty well as a 6th man
He's good as 6th man against weaker opponent bench players. As long as he doesn't start it's all good.
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Old 01-22-2010, 02:05 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Thanks for opening my eyes on wins. Stretch without Calderon we won a lot, but schedule was easier.

But still, we are giving too many points. Even Devlin no longer speaks of "12-0 when keeping opponent under 100" or same streak about opponent FG under .45
And it coincides with Jose (and maybe Turk not meshing with him).

And even though JT is moving away from Jack/Jose/Turk lineup, late game is still a prolem.
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Old 01-22-2010, 10:12 AM   #17 (permalink)
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that's some fine analyzin' ArmChair.

Calderon is a good player. Probably the one guy that gets the most undeserved criticism this year (and to a degree last year too). I mean it's gotten silly at times. People saying that Banks is much better, etc. I watch a lot of raptor games, and it's plain to see that he is a good player. He has a positive impact on the team when he plays.

One problem i have with people always getting on him for his defense is that some of the number crunching doesn't really paint a true picture IMO. For example, lately the Raptors have made a bad habit out of letting teams score at will in the third quarter. Well for one thing,since his return Calderon doesn't even play in that part of the match. I think SJ pointed it out before, and i tend to agree with this... Calderon as a defender will go as the team defense goes. If the team is defending well in a game, he tends to do his part, but if the rest of the guys are not doing their part, Jose will look worse than his contributions dictate. I totally believe that it's gotten to the point where it's a matter of convenience to point to Jose's return. Of late we've had a couple games (actually a couple halfs) where we looked like that November team - and everybody needs to take blame for that. not one guy who isn't even on the floor when the opposition goes on a lot of their runs.

Last edited by fancylad; 01-22-2010 at 10:14 AM.
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Old 01-22-2010, 11:05 AM   #18 (permalink)
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Just to set the record straight, Banks is not a better basketball player than Calderon, not even close. However it's like comparing Steve Nash to George Hill.

When Calderon was out. Turkoglu would go out early... and come back in with Banks. This is positive for 2 reasons:

1) Turkoglu gets to dominate the ball and was seemingly pretty effective in those games as ACGM mentioned (7-0 at home) and now with Calderon back he's playing terrible.
2) Banks gets to gaurd opposing PG's. It's no easy task and him picking up Chris Paul and other point gaurds starting from half court makes them work hard and gets them really tired for when Jack needs to come back in. Also with that point.. anyone who played organized basketball knows you want to start your offence from as low as possible. Pushing the PG back to the half court line makes the offensive sets so much harder to run.

In summary, I think that Calderon/Turk will never be able to play together. And since Turkoglu just got that new deal and everyone says he'll step up in the playoffs, Calderon should be the one that needs to go.

Having the worst defensive rating in the league with Calderon in the lineup, as Ligeia mentioned, is an automatic exit in the first round.
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Old 01-22-2010, 12:39 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Calderon is a much better point guard than Jack.
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Old 01-22-2010, 01:19 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Calderon is a much better point guard than Jack.
Yes, and I think that's the general consensus.

A lot of people here are in agreement though, that despite not having the point guard skills that Calderon has, the intangibles that Jack brings to the table making him a better fit for our tough as feathers starting lineup.

I've liked Calderon off the bench. When he doesn't have to worry about getting the ball to three ball-dominant players and can be the 1 or 1b scoring option on the floor, he's extremely effective looking for his own offense. Extremely effective. I don't however like seeing him close out games, as well as he may be playing on offense.

The guy that closes the game at PG needs to be able to keep his man in front of him and Calderon can't do that. Once this team is put in a situation where the penetration has happened from the top, it's essentially game over. Whether the help defense is there or not is irrelevant. The help should be there as a last line of defense, not as something that is relied on.

In terms of our point guards, Jack minimizes this and Calderon maximizes this.
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