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fk24 06-20-2011 09:20 PM

Project Centres
 
How many times do "project" centres end up being at least starting NBA Centres? By project I mean guys in the draft who have good size and measurements at the 5 spot and are taken in the lottery based on their upside?

This is very important because we may end up drafting Valanciunas or Biyombo who are both projects.

EggsToTheBBQ 06-20-2011 09:24 PM

Basically all centers are projects when they are drafted.

D12, Bynum, Bogut, Gasol, etc, etc, etc.

A polished center with size happens very rarely, and with guys being drafted at 19 now it really doesn't happen any more.

EggsToTheBBQ 06-20-2011 09:25 PM

...If you won't draft a project, then you won't draft a center.

dfunkie1 06-20-2011 09:27 PM

it's not important at all. the only think that's important is the scouting department doing their jobs before they make that selection.

but

chandler, bynum, perkins, gasol and nene were all projects and the exact same type of player we need.

10gizzle 06-20-2011 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EggsToTheBBQ (Post 550492)
Basically all centers are projects when they are drafted.

D12, Bynum, Bogut, Gasol, etc, etc, etc.

A polished center with size happens very rarely, and with guys being drafted at 19 now it really doesn't happen any more.

Bogut was most certainly not a project center IMO when he came in.

Guy ravaged the NCAA in his sophomore year to the tune of 20+ pts, 12 boards, 3 ast and 2 blks.

Sweeped most player awards after that year too.

If he came into the league and immediately got to play under a guy like Skiles (Instead of Stotts and Krystwokwiak who shat on his development) he'd have reached this point 2-3 years ago.

EggsToTheBBQ 06-20-2011 09:43 PM

9 pts, 7 reb, & 0.8 blk rookie year = project.

11 pts, 4 reb, & 0.8 blk rookie year = rookie Bargs (project) in less minutes.

jeffb 06-20-2011 09:44 PM

I was just watching NBATV and they were talking about Bigs and they specifically said most preject Centers don't pan out. Now i don't know the numbers, but it just seems like there are a lot more Thabeets out there then there are Howard's. Which is why i'd rather draft a 1 or a 3 and get an experienced Center via trade or FA if at all possible. Does anyone really believe Alabi will ever pan out to be a good NBA player, a rotation player?

EggsToTheBBQ 06-20-2011 09:45 PM

...And Dwight Howard actually had a solid rookie year.

I'm pretty sure he lined up at PF, though.

EggsToTheBBQ 06-20-2011 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeffb (Post 550500)
I was just watching NBATV and they were talking about Bigs and they specifically said most preject Centers don't pan out. Now i don't know the numbers, but it just seems like there are a lot more Thabeets out there then there are Howard's. Which is why i'd rather draft a 1 or a 3 and get an experienced Center via trade or FA if at all possible. Does anyone really believe Alabi will ever pan out to be a good NBA player, a rotation player?

Centers who can step in and play starting roles just don't happen. It's like a couple of times a decade that happens, and if it does the guy goes #1 overall.

Like I said, if you won't draft projects, then you won't draft centers. You miss out on the Horfords, Gasols, Hibberts, etc. Those guys play crucial roles on their teams. I doubt we could trade anyone on our roster straight up for one of those guys. Their teams couldn't lose them.

SoGood 06-20-2011 09:57 PM

what would constitute as a 'PROJECT" in terms of production?

it's almost certain that centres will never average 15/10 or better in their rookie season. the days of Shaq, Ewing, Olajuwon, Robinson even Yao Ming are gone...

it also doesn't help that it's a guard dominated league where fast break points are key

moremilk 06-20-2011 10:15 PM

the problem with "project" centres are that many times they end up on a different team by the time they develop, because fans/media/gms/gm or coaching changes cause them to be traded ...

some centres have that unique combination of size and quickness which makes it clear from the start they're going to be studs and those will get picked with #1 picks. But most centres have big question marks and you can't be sure about them until late in their first rookie contract.

moremilk 06-20-2011 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeffb (Post 550500)
I was just watching NBATV and they were talking about Bigs and they specifically said most preject Centers don't pan out. Now i don't know the numbers, but it just seems like there are a lot more Thabeets out there then there are Howard's. Which is why i'd rather draft a 1 or a 3 and get an experienced Center via trade or FA if at all possible. Does anyone really believe Alabi will ever pan out to be a good NBA player, a rotation player?

you will NEVER get a good centre in good health via trades, unless you trade a lot more in return, or they force a trade to your team (not going to happen in T.O.).

what you can do is take a flyer on a centre with an injury history and hope he'll turn out healthy. Which is also a crapshoot, just like the draft. JO was a monster defensively before the injuries, and he was a shadow after, Chandler had a ton of problems but recovered into a top defender. Camby at one time was the poster boy for injury-plagued centers and he's been in top health for years now.

I would welcome us signing oden to a short-term, high-dollar contract, it's a gamble I'm willing to take. But you'll see a majority of fans oppose such a move.

cloudnine 06-20-2011 10:33 PM

Kwame Brown is just beginning to be a quality C. You can't draft projects that high; Thabeet is an excellent example. As an 8-12 spot pick, he would have been okay.

In my opinion, the first two to three spots should be reserved for impact guys who can instantly improve the team that's drafting them (who are usually bad).

komot 06-20-2011 10:44 PM

for C's to be good you need to hire a quality big man coach. look who bynum and howard had to work with, 2 hall of famers. if we draft a big guy, again, we need to put the cash into hiring a very proven big man coach.

moremilk 06-21-2011 12:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cloudnine (Post 550524)
Kwame Brown is just beginning to be a quality C. You can't draft projects that high; Thabeet is an excellent example. As an 8-12 spot pick, he would have been okay.

In my opinion, the first two to three spots should be reserved for impact guys who can instantly improve the team that's drafting them (who are usually bad).

some players should just no be drafted at all, thabeet and araujo are two good examples .... :)

cloudnine 06-21-2011 12:15 AM

Nobody would have cared if Thabeet and Araujo had gone in the teens or twenties. But where they were picked, they were set up to fail.

Don't get me wrong, it's totally the fault of the organization that drafts a player who is unable to live up to the expectations. Just sayin'.

myklue 06-21-2011 12:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeffb (Post 550500)
I was just watching NBATV and they were talking about Bigs and they specifically said most preject Centers don't pan out. Now i don't know the numbers, but it just seems like there are a lot more Thabeets out there then there are Howard's. Which is why i'd rather draft a 1 or a 3 and get an experienced Center via trade or FA if at all possible. Does anyone really believe Alabi will ever pan out to be a good NBA player, a rotation player?

100% agreed jeffb. look at Greg Oden (injury prone), thabeet as you mentioned, Patrick O'Bryant (Picked 9th overall 2006). Center picked at top picks have shown to never pan out as they projected to be.

POINT GUARDS do. Look through the drafts, there are more projected point guards that pan out than projected centers.

PICK KEMBA!

LKeet6 06-21-2011 07:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by myklue (Post 550554)
100% agreed jeffb. look at Greg Oden (injury prone), thabeet as you mentioned, Patrick O'Bryant (Picked 9th overall 2006). Center picked at top picks have shown to never pan out as they projected to be.

POINT GUARDS do. Look through the drafts, there are more projected point guards that pan out than projected centers.

PICK KEMBA!

but PG is not a huge area of need for us. There are other options. Try and trade up for number 2 pick, get williams, or trade down involving barg and/or jose for a good player and use the 8-12 pick for a more risky draft pick. if we get lucky with that one, eg someone like biyombo then we've really helped the team. if that pick doesn't work out great at least you've got the strong player you traded in.

Admiral 06-21-2011 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EggsToTheBBQ (Post 550492)
Basically all centers are projects when they are drafted.

D12, Bynum, Bogut, Gasol, etc, etc, etc.

A polished center with size happens very rarely, and with guys being drafted at 19 now it really doesn't happen any more.

It depends what you mean by "project". If its just someone that is raw then i agree with all the above other than Bogut. But to me someone like D12 is not a project because he was drafted #1. To me if you're drafted #1 then you're already good and if anything you just need to come into your own with experience. You don't risk a #1 overall on a project.

jeffb 06-21-2011 08:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LKeet6 (Post 550590)
but PG is not a huge area of need for us. There are other options. Try and trade up for number 2 pick, get williams, or trade down involving barg and/or jose for a good player and use the 8-12 pick for a more risky draft pick. if we get lucky with that one, eg someone like biyombo then we've really helped the team. if that pick doesn't work out great at least you've got the strong player you traded in.

It's huge area of need. Plus it was about taking the best player available? And the last thing we need is a risky draft pick. That never ends well for us!


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