pre-season relevance
Old 10-19-2013, 02:45 PM   #1 (permalink)
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most agree that pre-season is not very relevant, as teams experiment a lot and winning is secondary. There are some interesting stats, such as the winner of every conference in pre-season ALWAYS made the playoffs the following season (not sure if still true, but it was until 1-2 seasons ago).

That being said, I wonder if some elements can't be seen as warning signs, such as a team really struggling (or really doing well) or a player being in bad shape or otherwise doing poorly etc?
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Old 10-19-2013, 02:59 PM   #2 (permalink)
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I don't even think much should be made of whatever happens in the first week or two of the regular season.
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Old 10-19-2013, 03:06 PM   #3 (permalink)
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I'm worried about turnovers and that JV isn't playing very good, but there rest of the starters look promising. Our bench is gonna have to step up though
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Old 10-19-2013, 04:37 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Pacers are 0-5.

You tell me.
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Old 10-19-2013, 06:45 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Preseason matters to a degree. If your team is winless but they're playing well as a unit, it's not necessarily a disaster.
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Old 10-19-2013, 07:00 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Pre-season results, per se, are no more relevant than they are irrelevant. Things can happen during pre-season which would be legitimate cause for concern (ie. a player shows up incredibly out of shape, teammates/management arguing).

However, this doesn't make everything a cause for concern. For example, I don't think we should make too much out of the play of the Raptors starting 5, who have been playing 15-25 minutes a game in games that aren't especially important. It is pretty hard to say, on the basis of that play, what will happen in the season.
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Old 10-19-2013, 07:28 PM   #7 (permalink)
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I think the most important things in preseason are the vets getting reps, the young players getting more experience by playing in game situations(mostly the rookies and guys who didnt get to play much in years prior), but most of all, building chemistry with specific lineups coaches will use in the regular season.

As the preseason goes on, you'll see teams beginning to play their starters more, and play more lineups you'd see in the regular season. Teams like IND are not winning because they're playing their new bench a lot and trying to get them used to one another, but at the same time seeing which lineups work the best with their 2 units(specifically which lineup Granger fits in the best with).

I'm hoping over the next week, Casey will play his regular lineups more, and the bench guys who are going to play actually play with the starters going to be playing with in the regular season in the late 1st/early 2nd quarters. If Casey goes with the hockey line change this year, then we know we're in full tank mode, because we're not going to survive even for 2 minutes in an NBA game with Augustin/Buycks, Ross, Fields, Novak, and Hansbrough all playing at once. 3 of those guys need to play with 2 starters when they come in if we actually plan on winning this year or we're going to end up losing a lot of leads, and/or falling way behind early in games.
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Old 10-19-2013, 08:13 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Raps and Philly were both 7-1 in the preseason last year.

Casey already said the last two preseason games would be about tightening up the rotation and playing the starters more.
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Old 10-19-2013, 09:37 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Pre-season means a lot more for teams like ours than contenders.
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Old 10-19-2013, 10:29 PM   #10 (permalink)
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if Indiana is 0-5 because they're playing the bench a lot, should a pacers fan be worried that the bench is not doing so great?

like I said, the record is more or less meangingless, what I was wondering is if there are any things that should be reasons to worry. If a vet is not in great shape at the start, would that be a red flag for his regular season performance?

Or watching pre-season games is utterly meaningless since they are nothing more than warm-ups for the real games?
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Old 10-19-2013, 10:36 PM   #11 (permalink)
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It all has to be taken in proper context, and only the coaches can do that fully. It's a time to iron shit out and give the coaches some indication of directions they should go. Oh - and the biggest aim as far as the games go, is to get through them without injuries, especially to starters.

Last edited by LX; 10-19-2013 at 10:48 PM.
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Old 10-20-2013, 11:45 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Raps and Philly were both 7-1 in the preseason last year.

Casey already said the last two preseason games would be about tightening up the rotation and playing the starters more.
6-1 and both teams nearly made the playoffs, we weren't THAT far. GSW who wont the west did make the playoffs.

I think for bad teams, pre-season is a lot more relevant than for established ones.

I agree that only coaches and generally speaking people close to the game, can fully draw any conclusions. Yet, watch the game threads and you will see lots of people draw lots of conclusions. We love when we see a player doing something new or better, but on the flipside, if that is relevant, so should be when a player or the team struggles, no?
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Old 10-20-2013, 05:45 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Little to none at all. The play by play men get a chance to familiarize themselves with new names, the players get to try some new stuff and stretch themselves out, we get to bitch about hoe our team is not using this guy or that guy properly, we get to pick on the coaches and players we have huge expectations of .... just bullshit stuff.
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Old 10-21-2013, 08:25 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Does the NBA Preseason tell us how the regular season will unfold?

Must-read on this subject. A little out-dated now, but it probably holds up just fine.

TLDR: Preseason is very predictive of regular season success, for teams who did poorly the year prior. Somewhat for average teams, and not at all for elite teams.
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Old 10-22-2013, 11:29 AM   #15 (permalink)
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I think the statement "preseason doesn't matter" is disingenuous. As LX said, you need to take it in context.

Pre-season is a good place to look for indications of certain things, but a bad place to glance at a team's record and say "oh this team sucks because they're 0-5". But to throw out the numbers entirely misses the point IMO.

Chicago is 6-0 right now. Anyone who doesn't think they aren't going to have a monster season should have their head examined. They've been there before.

Meanwhile, New Orleans is 6-0. I don't expect them to be much of a contender in the west, but they do look improved, especially Davis.
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1. Matchups matter more in pre-season.

Indiana's opponents in the pre season so far: Chicago (x2), Houston (x2), Dallas, Cleveland. Yikes!

Us so far: Boston (x2), NYK (x2), Minnesota (x2). Huge difference.

That's not a fair comparison of regular season opponents, where it will average out by playing a mix of good and bad teams.

2. Certain teams have to prove something in pre-season, while others do not. Derrick Rose needs to prove to his team, himself, his fans, and everyone that he's back. He's doing it!

Indiana just needs to figure out their bench situation and get Scola integrated into their team. It makes sense that Indy has a bad record in the preseason - their bench was their weakness last year and in preseason you play your starters less than in the regular season.

3. Pre-season is a good place to check out which lineups are successful and which aren't. Our starting 5 unit, for example, is doing pretty well in +/-, but our bench isn't. That may or may not matter when the season starts.

4. Pre-season is a good place to look for players who may be making "the leap" (as Bill Simmons calls it) to the next level. Derrick Rose looks like he's back to MVP-candidate level (we'll see if that knee holds up, though). Lowry and DeRozan look improved. Damian Lillard looks good. Anthony Davis and Bradley Beal look great! Dallas' team, for the most part, looks old and creaky. Andre Drummond looks good. Etc.


So yeah, I don't think our record in the pre-season is very important at all, but I take away a few little things that are good signs, like:

-Our starting 5 seem to play well together
-DeRozan and Lowry look improved
-Hansbrough brings a lot of energy and toughness off the bench
-Ross is streaky, and may or may not be a good energizer off the bench
-Our backup PG situation is totally unsettled, which is not good with the season right around the corner
-We finally have a team where our best players should be our best players every night. No more needing Alan Anderson, Leandro Barbosa or Linas Kleiza to have a monster game to bring us to victory.
-etc.

Last edited by BballWatcher; 10-22-2013 at 11:37 AM.
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Old 10-22-2013, 01:13 PM   #16 (permalink)
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i know rose has been getting good numbers in pre-season but has anyone watched and noticed if he has his athleticism back and if he's been taking to the rack a lot? does he have confidence in it?
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Old 10-22-2013, 03:29 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Quote:
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i know rose has been getting good numbers in pre-season but has anyone watched and noticed if he has his athleticism back and if he's been taking to the rack a lot? does he have confidence in it?
From the little i've seen, yes, very much so.
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Old 10-23-2013, 03:39 AM   #18 (permalink)
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From the little i've seen, yes, very much so.
great. Such a shame he lost a season. I wasn't as crazy about him as others until the season he got injured, he was about to have a big-time playoff experience and then really blow-up last season imo.
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Old 10-23-2013, 04:55 AM   #19 (permalink)
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Preseason is where you find out what starters look gimpy, and who might replace them if they do go all out gimp.
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Old 10-24-2013, 12:34 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Quote:
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i know rose has been getting good numbers in pre-season but has anyone watched and noticed if he has his athleticism back and if he's been taking to the rack a lot? does he have confidence in it?
In interviews he's said he's gained 5" on his vertical from before. He's really explosive again.

If you watch hilights of Chicago's most recent game, he has two or three drives where he literally splits two defenders twice for layups -- ie he's driving through four guys to score. It's incredible!

I just really really hope that he can stay healthy because Rose is such a pleasure to watch.
--------

Ditto for Greg Oden. I really hope he can have a relatively healthy season. He was a beast for the little time he was healthy, and he's got that unique combo of size and athleticism that's uber rare in centers.

It's funny that right now, the odds of Greg Oden getting a championship before Kevin Durant have to be pretty good. What's less settled, though, is whether Oden will be a meaningful contributor to his team or simply a towel-waving spectator if he suffers another setback.
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