over/UNDER rd1 gm16 Raptors v WARRIORS

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View Poll Results: make one or two picks
the total points combined will go OVER 200.5 20 80.00%
the total points combined will stay under 200.5 5 20.00%
the number of players in the game that shoot better than 50% will go OVER 4.5 9 36.00%
the number of players in the game that shoot better than 50% will stay under 4.5 11 44.00%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 25. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-02-2013, 07:03 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Bob Loblaw took the ring!
Now it's time to do your thing!

Make one or two picks. The first one is set by vegas, and will give you a long distance 3. The second is a lob from me, and it's up to you to get above the rim and complete the two points. Miss and you'll lose two, in the same way the missed gimmes lead to easy points the other way in every NBA game you've ever seen.

You can choose to look the other way and just get back on defense, by making no second pick.

Be sure to make your picks in the poll. I won't be counting picks made within the thread unless something's gone awry for you with the poll - in which case be sure to let me know.

This is open to everyone at anytime. The standings get wiped clean every 20 games for a new round, so it's never too late to have a shot at winning it all! Make top ten in any round to qualify for the playoffs. Win a round and pick up 5 points to start the playoffs. Make top ten in additional rounds and pick up 3 for the start of the playoffs.

GOOD LUCK!
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Old 12-02-2013, 07:07 PM   #2 (permalink)
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the standings going into this

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Old 12-03-2013, 03:49 PM   #3 (permalink)
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late game - don't go to bed and forget to make your picks
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Old 12-03-2013, 10:12 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Half hour to go
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Old 12-03-2013, 10:18 PM   #5 (permalink)
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How many people make the playoffs? IS it only people in the white rectangle?
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Old 12-03-2013, 10:19 PM   #6 (permalink)
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How many people make the playoffs? IS it only people in the white rectangle?
Yep - top ten
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Old 12-03-2013, 10:23 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Yep - top ten
ok thanks!
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Old 12-03-2013, 10:43 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Locking them up

the total points combined will go OVER 200.5
'trane, Alex, Bankiz, Carlos Danger, carp, Chiggmo, DanH, Gurk, INSIDER, jeffb, KoolAid, LOG, Metallikid, moremilk, Psi, RaptorsandBuckeye FaN, rb, Shifty.py, Thug, Tomas

the total points combined will stay under 200.5
js12, Rudy-T, Shadowfax, Sumon, TS13

the number of players in the game that shoot better than 50% will go OVER 4.5
'trane, Alex, INSIDER, KoolAid, LOG, moremilk, Rudy-T, Sumon, Thug

the number of players in the game that shoot better than 50% will stay under 4.5
Bankiz, Carlos Danger, carp, Chiggmo, jeffb, Metallikid, Psi, rb, Shadowfax, Tomas, TS13
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Old 12-03-2013, 11:38 PM   #9 (permalink)
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11 guys shooting 50% or better at the half. 9 of them are >50%.
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Old 12-04-2013, 12:49 PM   #10 (permalink)
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over and over wins

updated standings here

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Old 12-04-2013, 01:05 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Holy Jebus i suck at this
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Old 12-04-2013, 01:16 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Holy Jebus i suck at this
Just look at jeffb and you'll feel better
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Old 12-04-2013, 03:35 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Go figure the one night both teams shoot mostly at 50% or better is the one time I expect it to be a chuck fest where most are at 40-45
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Old 12-04-2013, 03:38 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Just look at jeffb and you'll feel better
What are you talking about, Jeff and I are chasing the under!

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Old 12-05-2013, 02:05 AM   #15 (permalink)
playoffs please dont end

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I gave up on 2nd questions
the house always wins
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Old 12-05-2013, 08:20 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Quote:
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I gave up on 2nd questions
the house always wins
That's been my strategy. For the first half of the season I picked both and had a stellar point total of 0. Now I actually have half a chance at a playoff spot.
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Old 12-05-2013, 01:38 PM   #17 (permalink)
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it's actually a very interesting thing that happens with the 2nd question. From a game point view, you should always play the 2nd question, if you believe this game is non-random (in other words if there is skill involved in this game, you have to play). The reason for this is that statistically, the average of all the scores should be 0, but ONLY assuming the questions are ALWAYS fairly rated. Which, and I mean no slight to LX, is very unlikely. So as long as LX makes the occasional error and one or the other option has more than 50% chance of occurring, you can use your skill to get valuable points.

The second aspect is the fact that the score average for the 2nd question appears to be negative (it's hard to tell for sure without knowing how many answers are behind each score - the weighting of each score in the average formula). If that is so, and considering the large data set (must be at least 150-200 answers), it's a little difficult to find an explanation.

I guess the reason lies with people abandoning the game when they fall behind. Either, like Dan, they stop playing the 2nd question once they go negative there, or they stop playing altogether if they're too far behind in the overall ranking.
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Old 12-05-2013, 02:11 PM   #18 (permalink)
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There really is no falling too far behind until very late in the round, aside from maybe jeff.

That was my whole point. Missing games, and falling behind should not matter as much as before when if you played every game you had a pretty good shot of making top ten. And front running is not happening like before.

I do love that you are trying to find some mathematical reasons to discount my brilliance, and are ultimately unable to. Keep bringing that magic. Heehee.
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Old 12-05-2013, 02:15 PM   #19 (permalink)
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one assumption I made in my post is that LX is actually trying to quantify the 2nd question in such a way that there is a 50% chance of either option occurring. For all we know, it's possible that the 2nd question always has a hidden bias that requires skill to detect.

Another point I should make is that IF the odds were set exactly right, it would make absolutely no difference how you choose to approach the 2nd question, whether you play, not play, try to make a smart decision or toss a coin. If the 2nd question deviates from .500, you have two options, either pick randomly, in which case you will always have an expected final score of 0 (so you might as well not play), or try to use skill, in which case you can benefit (if you are good at it), or lose (if you are not).
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Old 12-05-2013, 02:19 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LX View Post
I do love that you are trying to find some mathematical reasons to discount my brilliance, and are ultimately unable to. Keep bringing that magic. Heehee.
that was really not my intent ... there is no way anybody could assign perfect .500 odds. In fact, Vegas is not even trying - their odds are (afaik) just a reflection of the bets. They set an initial line which they constantly adjust based on incoming bets. That's why you get crappy teams with odds of winning a title at 125 to 1, when in reality, the odds are more like 1 million to 1 or worse (there is no conceivable way a team like the 76ers would win a title).

and , as I said in my second post (typed before your reply - just took me longer), it would actually make a lot more sense to add bias in the question. Having a perfect .500 question would make the game a perfect coin toss regardless what the participants do.
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