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View Poll Results: make one or two picks
the total points combined will go OVER 200.5 20 80.00%
the total points combined will stay under 200.5 5 20.00%
the number of players in the game that shoot better than 50% will go OVER 4.5 9 36.00%
the number of players in the game that shoot better than 50% will stay under 4.5 11 44.00%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 25. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-05-2013, 02:22 PM   #21 (permalink)
LX
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Here's a hint - i am not aiming at a .500 probability. Not every time anyway. I am aiming at a number that will veer towards more of a 50-50 selection rate. I have learned a thing or two from vegas doing this over the years. They want to spur on betting, not just provide a coin flip. It's about understanding where the line makes it a difficult choice, but a difficult choice to resist all the same.
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Old 12-05-2013, 02:29 PM   #22 (permalink)
LX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moremilk View Post
that was really not my intent ... there is no way anybody could assign perfect .500 odds. In fact, Vegas is not even trying - their odds are (afaik) just a reflection of the bets. They set an initial line which they constantly adjust based on incoming bets. That's why you get crappy teams with odds of winning a title at 125 to 1, when in reality, the odds are more like 1 million to 1 or worse (there is no conceivable way a team like the 76ers would win a title).

and , as I said in my second post (typed before your reply - just took me longer), it would actually make a lot more sense to add bias in the question. Having a perfect .500 question would make the game a perfect coin toss regardless what the participants do.
Vegas adjusts lines according to incoming bets, but they get a good feel of what will bring in bets to start with in setting the line. They go through all kinds of probabilities with regards to how bets will come in before any adjustments are made. 125-1 will bring in some money whereas 100-1 will likely bring in a fair bit less, and they cannot risk being too careless and setting 500-1 for a team that could make them pay. There are a lot of evil algorithms. I mean evil. And i think i may have absorbed a few of them with this and playing poker online.
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Old 12-06-2013, 07:17 AM   #23 (permalink)
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In the end the problem is that Raptors play so random and fail so unexpectedly that any assumptions about them go wrong. Even with surest choises they find a way to fail you.
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Old 12-06-2013, 01:28 PM   #24 (permalink)
whatever

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Quote:
Originally Posted by LX View Post
Here's a hint - i am not aiming at a .500 probability. Not every time anyway. I am aiming at a number that will veer towards more of a 50-50 selection rate. I have learned a thing or two from vegas doing this over the years. They want to spur on betting, not just provide a coin flip. It's about understanding where the line makes it a difficult choice, but a difficult choice to resist all the same.
yeah, that makes sense
like I said, having perfect .500 questions would make the game fully random.
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