NBAroundtable.com: Bargnani vs Player X
Old 09-18-2009, 10:43 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Default NBAroundtable.com: Bargnani vs Player X



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Originally Posted by NBAroundtable.com
I am going to compare Bargnani to made up player.

Introducing Player X


Player X is a set of general characteristics — average defender + average rebounder while being a slightly below average scorer with poor scoring efficiency.

Also, let’s assume Bargnani and Player X are equal as passers + screeners + turnovers per minute. To avoid overly complicating things.

The Comparison


Defense


I think for the majority of Raptors fans there’s an agreement on Bargnani’s defense; that Bargnani is a good post defender but a poor team defender. Personally, I’d go a little further and rate Bargnani is a below average one-on-one defender because I think he does a poor job in man-to-man D outside of the post. But anyway, I think that most Raps fans would agree that Bargnani is a below average defender.

So Player X has an advantage here because he is an average defender. Therefore, the Raptors are better defensive team with him on the floor than with Bargnani.

Rebounding

A couple of months ago I listed the rebounding rates for the starting centers in the NBA. Bargnani is a terrible rebounder and that list aptly describes how poor of a rebounder he is.

Okay, so over Bargnani’s 35 minutes, he would grab roughly 6 rebounds. An average rebounding center would grab 9 rebounds in that same time.

Since the Raptors were out-rebounded last season, well for the last seven seasons really, and figure to be out-rebounded again this coming season, there clearly will be a lot of available rebounds out there. So, Player X should be able to grab his rebounds without eating into other player’s rebounding numbers.

Therefore, the Raptors are a better team with Player X and have an extra 3 possessions per game.

Offense

Andrea Bargnani scored 19 points per game on a true shooting percentage of 57.6% last season. He took 14.57 field goals and 4.26 free throws to score those points. So let’s say Bargnani used 16.45 shot-taking possessions to score his 19 points.

Player X is a below average scorer for a center, so let’s say he scores 10 points in his 36 minutes. The average true shooting percentage for the league is around 54%, and I think it’s slightly higher for a center, but since Player X is below average let’s make him flat out poor and give him a TS% of 50%. Okay, so in order to score his 10 points, Player X must attempt 8.9 field goals and 2.4 free throws. So, Player X uses 10 possessions to score his 10 points.

Differences In Possessions


Offensively

This frees up 6.45 possessions for the rest of the Raptors team.

Okay, we’ll to go to an extreme here and say that those extra possessions are used very poorly by the rest of the Raptors team.

* Let’s say the Raptors lead the league in turnovers with a turnover rate of 17.5%. That wipes out 1.13 possessions, leaving the Raptors with 5.32 shots to go around.
* Let’s also say that the Raptors players are not as efficient at scoring the ball as Bargnani is — a good bet since Bargnani is so efficient as a scorer — but let’s go even further again and say they are well below the league average and like Player X, have a true shooting percentage of 50%.

Okay, so the Raptors freed up 6.45 possessions offensively. This Raptors team leads the league in turnovers and is way below average in scoring efficiency. The Raptors team scores another 5.32 points.

Therefore, Player X brings his 10 points to the table while his teammates score another 5.32 points with the leftover shots. Giving his team 15.32 points for the same number of shot-taking possessions used up by Bargnani.

Advantage Bargnani — Andrea scores 19 points per game so he adds 3.68 points to the Raptors per game over Player X.

Rebounding

Remember, Player X has won an extra three rebounds for his team giving his team three extra possessions.

Once again, his Raptors teammates lead the league in turnovers and score at a very inefficient rate. With these three possessions, they manage 2.48 points per game.

Total

Player X’s offensive contribution + rebounding contribution now stands at 17.78 points per game.

Therefore, Andrea Bargnani still leads the contest with his 19 points.

Defense

Andrea Bargnani is a below average defender. Player X is an average defender. There is an advantage there, but how much does that advantage add for the Raptors?

I’m not going to put a number out here … since it’s so subjective … I’ll leave this to the readers to come up with their own evaluation/number.

The question is, does Bargnani’s lesser defensive contributions versus an average defensive big man cost the Raptors more or less than 1.22 points per game? Over the course 35 minutes a night? What do you think?

Final Thoughts


Let’s ignore the question of Bargnani being a star player, a core player, a possible All-Star for now … instead, let’s ask a far simpler question:

Is Bargnani better than Player X?


A player who is not even an average player overall. A mediocre defender + rebounder, and a below par offensive player.

And secondly …

Even if you feel Bargnani is better than Player X … shouldn’t Bargnani be blowing a player like this out of the water.

After all, the man is being given 35 minutes a night and is considered one of the Raptors four best players, and has just been handed a $50 million contract extension.
Source - Bargnani vs Player X nbaroundtable
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Old 09-18-2009, 10:49 AM   #2 (permalink)
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I agree.
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Old 09-18-2009, 11:02 AM   #3 (permalink)
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I'm sorry, but I cannot tell you how BULLSHIT this kind of thing is. There's too much to cover.

People who don't klnow jack shit about a sport go off on tangents and base thier arguments off assumptions that are made on what seems to be MARGINAL basketball IQ (although they throw terms like "IQ" around as if they are experts).

I'm sorry man, but thi sshit has got to stop.

It's annoying.
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Old 09-18-2009, 11:05 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Yet SJ, it sadly is how people view the game. People will come up with all sorts of arguments to bolster their idea.
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Old 09-18-2009, 11:10 AM   #5 (permalink)
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I happens a lot.

And I am cranky today...hahaha

But I mean really, why waste time on a task like that.
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Old 09-18-2009, 11:12 AM   #6 (permalink)
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What is wrong with it?
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Old 09-18-2009, 12:00 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Whats wrong with it is the way that stats were used to determine the writers intention that Bargs isnt any good.

First off:
Bargs is a very solid man to man defender, not many centers in the league guards their man outside of the post better than they do in the post, although I'll conceed that Bargsisnt a great help defender, not lot of centers truely are.

Second:
Rebounds, there are only so many rebounds to go around and Bargs does play with one of the best rebounding PF's in the game today, for most of last season he played with the best rebounding small forward as well.

Third:
True shooting percentage cannot be used in the manner of calculating how many points per shots a team or individual will score. TS% is the correlation of FG%, FT% and 3pt%
So the theory that player X contributes 2.whatever more points per game bacuse he grabbed 3 more rebounds than Bargs is totally flawed.
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Old 09-18-2009, 12:15 PM   #8 (permalink)
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whats wrong with it is that its shite!
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Old 09-18-2009, 12:19 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snooch View Post
Whats wrong with it is the way that stats were used to determine the writers intention that Bargs isnt any good.
...
Second:
Rebounds, there are only so many rebounds to go around and Bargs does play with one of the best rebounding PF's in the game today, for most of last season he played with the best rebounding small forward as well.
...
Yah, I'll be very happy if Bargs learns to box out his guy consistently just to give Bosh/rasho/Evans or even Turk a better chance to get the rebound. He definitely improved in this area when on defense last year.

His bigger rebounding problem is offensive rebounds. I think they should send Derozan or Wright at the boards on most Offensive Possessions to offset Barg's outside game.
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Old 09-18-2009, 12:32 PM   #10 (permalink)
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I agree Snooch. The whole concept is flawed.

1st. Bargs scoring efficiency (roughly 4th in Centers) helps other Raptors score more then your theoretical player "X" because Bargs draws better coverage.

2nd. Your 9 rebound per game average is way off. Only 5 centers had more then 9 rebounds per game. League average for Centers was only about 7.3

3rd. You don't know how the coaching is affecting his play. They may be asking him to focus on boxing out so Bosh can get the rebounds.

4th. An "average" center scores about 8.6 points per game not 10.

10 mil is a fair price for Bargs. Just because he doesn't post up much on offence doesn't mean he can't learn to do that. He's still improving. Besides he's only getting 8 mil this season.
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Old 09-18-2009, 12:35 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Bargnani is 23yrs ols and is only scratching the surface on what he can do.
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Old 09-18-2009, 12:41 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Oh one more thing. In my opinion the mismatch Bargs creates by being a big outside shooter is more of an advantage with a slasher (something the Raptors haven't had) that can beat bigs defending Bargs to the hoop.
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Old 09-18-2009, 01:00 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Old 09-18-2009, 01:04 PM   #14 (permalink)
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average center rebounds 9 per game? It's bad enough that the whole concept of the article is ridiculous, at least get your facts straight. According to espn.com, only 5 centers had over 9 rebounds per game last season, and the average is around 6.

If you include all centers, regardless if they qualify or not (based on minutes played etc), only 11th center average over 9, and the average is around 8. But the average center only scores around 10 points, and shoots very poorly from the FT line. With stats as a starting center, Bargnani would be 5th in TS among all center, equal qith gasol. Full season stats put him at 11th. And I would call his defense average, not below average. He's horrible against the superbigs, but above average against all the other Cs and PFs.
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Old 09-18-2009, 01:10 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snooch View Post
First off:
Bargs is a very solid man to man defender, not many centers in the league guards their man outside of the post better than they do in the post, although I'll conceed that Bargsisnt a great help defender, not lot of centers truely are.
Bargnani is a decent man defender but his help defence is pretty much non-existent. At best, he's an average defender overall.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snooch View Post
Second:
Rebounds, there are only so many rebounds to go around and Bargs does play with one of the best rebounding PF's in the game today, for most of last season he played with the best rebounding small forward as well.
This type of argument only holds water if the Raptors are a good rebounding team overall. They're not. They've been out-rebounded by their opponents in each of Bargnani's three years in the league.

Judging defence is pretty subjective so I understand why some people would disagree with me that he's an average-at-best defender. But defending his historically awful rebounding is absurd. I expect he's going to improve this aspect of his game next season, but so far in his career he's been the worst rebounding seven-footer to get regular minutes in the NBA, and this is not even reasonably debatable. If you're going to disagree, identify a worse-rebounding starting center in the NBA. And saying that "he's not really a center" is besides the point. He's 7 feet tall and at least 250 pounds -- he's certainly built like a center so he should be able to rebound like one.
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Old 09-18-2009, 01:14 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Was that your piece Scott??

If so.

Good lord man, have you ever actually played ball?
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Old 09-18-2009, 01:16 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Superjudge View Post
Was that your piece Scott??

If so.

Good lord man, have you ever actually played ball?
Yes I've played ball and no, that wasn't my piece. I did write about Bargnani yesterday, however: RaptorBlog.com featuring Scott Carefoot: The original Toronto Raptors blog

By the way, "Have you ever played ball?" is a weak criticism. Next I suspect you're going to challenge me on what level I played ball and when it doesn't meet up to your standards, you'll dismiss everything I say. Hey, we all know that the best coaches and GMs in the NBA are ex-NBA players, right? Oh, wait...
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Old 09-18-2009, 01:18 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Superjudge View Post
Was that your piece Scott??

If so.

Good lord man, have you ever actually played ball?
Nahhhh, i doubt it. If he did it you would see his mug staring back at you.
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Old 09-18-2009, 01:19 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Quote:
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Bargnani is 23yrs ols and is only scratching the surface on what he can do.
Maybe... hopefully, but he's really only played a half season of 10m/yr basketball. What if he reverts to his form of two years ago? Does anyone really KNOW this won't happen? No... we all hope it doesn't.

I dont' think this article is that far off. AB is going to have to take another step forward to justify this contract in my opinion...on the boards and both sides of the ball.
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Old 09-18-2009, 01:21 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Nahhhh, i doubt it. If he did it you would see his (s)mug staring back at you.
Fixed that for you.
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