Most unclutch team ever?
Old 01-19-2009, 06:41 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Most unclutch team ever?

I know that many of us are ragging on the team and the roster right now but I was curious to see how badly we've been losing games so I took a look back... pretty interesting actually...

Since the coaching change (1st DEN gm):

Losses by 20+ pts ------ 3

Losses by 19+ to 10+ ---- 0

Losses by 10+ to 5+ ----- 12

Losses by 1+ to 5+ ----- 4

Wins ------------------- 8


Out of 27 games played we were only really "out" of 3 of them.

16 games decided by 10 pts or less.... that hurts.

It got me thinking though... if our roster was really THAT bad shouldn't we have expected a lot more of those 15-30 pt. losses? We seem to be able to hang in there for 44 minutes of the game... and then we self-destruct over the last 4.

Makes me wonder what our record would be like if we...

a) Had our starting PG (healthy!)

and

b) Had a wing player with the ability to create off the dribble in the clutch.

I dunno... with stats like these I'm tempted to think that we should really be looking to "tweak" rather than "blow up".

Thoughts?
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Old 01-19-2009, 06:46 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Makes me wonder what our record would be like if we...

a) Had our starting PG (healthy!)

and

b) Had a wing player with the ability to create off the dribble in the clutch.

I dunno... with stats like these I'm tempted to think that we should really be looking to "tweak" rather than "blow up".
We'd be 20-23 roughly and in the 9th seed imo! But i wouldn't blow it up!
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Old 01-19-2009, 07:18 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Having an above average SG or SF and a healthy Jose would most certainly make us less unclutch. Not implying that our front court is the best,(they have their own flaws) but we've wasted so many great performances from both Bosh and Bargs. Just goes to show how important a starting PG and a swing man that can create of offense truly is.
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Old 01-19-2009, 07:23 PM   #4 (permalink)
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We're weak mentally.

We need a stud.
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Old 01-19-2009, 07:24 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Ya i was just thinking about making a post about this. Also if you look, 3 our of the last 4 losses we lost by 5 points or less.
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Old 01-19-2009, 07:48 PM   #6 (permalink)
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We're definitely not as bad as our record

Our high number of close losses can be amounted to a couple big issues:

a) No wing defence against the other team's star scorers (and the alt: no wing scorer on our side, we go to Bosh who clearly can't win games in the clutch)

b) Bad rebounding... how many games have we lost because of an offensive rebound

c) Slow jumpshooting team. No easy buckets either inside or by transition.

c) Lack of confidence and general softness/dumbness.

So yes, rebuilding is a stupid kneejerk reaction right now. Retool is where it's at.
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Old 01-19-2009, 08:14 PM   #7 (permalink)
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The year that Colangelo arrived they were in a lot of games and they lost a ton. They made a lot of changes then, and Colangelo needs to be able to do the same now, only with guys he brought here being moved instead of someone else's choices.

Here's what the differential doesn't show - they lose a lot of games after being up by 10+ points. Being close at the end only happens after their leads implode and the opposing team just cruises to a win with a little extra effort and focus.

Just about every game I get the feeling that they might be getting a sense of figuring out how to win. But it doesn't last, and it's not there. There are too many guys that help the other team win more than they help themselves. And the NEWSYSTEM does not accomplish what any NEWSYSTEM must - and that is concentrate the strengths and dilute the weaknesses. There's a lot to be said for the new creativity, but there is also much to be said negatively about looking lost.

This team needs to be able to find the things that can be executed regularly and discard the rest. They somehow do a great job of finding shots for Moon (who loves to chuck them), and Kapono (who never seems ready to fire away as much as he is dipsy doodling and tossing up wild floaters). The last possession today was inexplicably bad, and I can't see how there can be any excuse for it.
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Old 01-19-2009, 08:21 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Find Moon???????

LX, Moon is open for a reason, he's terrible and teams want the ball in his hands as much as possible. If you ask me his time is done. He knew what his role was, and he fails day in, and day out to do anything to accomplish what he is being asked to. Unfortuneatly, the only other option, Kapono, is just as weak.

I really liked Moon when he arrived, but he has gone the wrong way, and that swhy he gets paid pennies, because those who know, know, and he wasn't getting a penny more I guess.

I think it's safe to say his days of playing lot of minutes are numbered.
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Old 01-19-2009, 08:24 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by •LX• View Post
The year that Colangelo arrived they were in a lot of games and they lost a ton. They made a lot of changes then, and Colangelo needs to be able to do the same now, only with guys he brought here being moved instead of someone else's choices.

Here's what the differential doesn't show - they lose a lot of games after being up by 10+ points. Being close at the end only happens after their leads implode and the opposing team just cruises to a win with a little extra effort and focus.

Just about every game I get the feeling that they might be getting a sense of figuring out how to win. But it doesn't last, and it's not there. There are too many guys that help the other team win more than they help themselves. And the NEWSYSTEM does not accomplish what any NEWSYSTEM must - and that is concentrate the strengths and dilute the weaknesses. There's a lot to be said for the new creativity, but there is also much to be said negatively about looking lost.

This team needs to be able to find the things that can be executed regularly and discard the rest. They somehow do a great job of finding shots for Moon (who loves to chuck them), and Kapono (who never seems ready to fire away as much as he is dipsy doodling and tossing up wild floaters). The last possession today was inexplicably bad, and I can't see how there can be any excuse for it.

The problem in many of these games isn't necessarily with the playcall... it's with the execution of it. Kapono could have shot the 3... but he bailed out.

AP had a great shot at a layup against PHX... rimmed out.

How many times has Bosh had an iso and fumbled the ball away in the closing minutes?

What I see in most of these games are "brainfarts" or just plain bad luck.

I know that you're probably going to say that that's a cop-out but as I see it the coach's responsibility is to design a play that gets a player a high percentage shot.... it's still on the player to execute that shot though.

We just really, really suck at executing in the closing moments. And we make way to many mistakes on D when it counts.
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Old 01-19-2009, 08:26 PM   #10 (permalink)
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bang on, I can't say I have really felt much anger for the coach lately, but the execution is terrible.
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Old 01-19-2009, 08:41 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I'm not directing any anger at the coach. Read my post and you'll see that I'm saying the coach just needs to figure out what can be executed. It's nice that the coach can get a player a high percentage shot in his own mind, but the coach also needs to know his team and what his team is capable of in reality. Triano knows these guys, but it's like he's trying to reinvent the wheel at the same time. Changing coaches only made losing more inevitable. It might have been the right idea, but it was not the right time, with handing the reigns over to Triano as the only real option.

My wrath is and always has been directed at BC. He said the team was underachieving then. What does he think now? Fuck that - what is he going to do about it?

Look - I said it was on the players years ago and I say it now. And I've always seen where there's just not the right personnel to get wins and pinned losses on that, instead of looking for magic bullets from coaches. What I don't get is the change in tune from guys like you Toraps. Seems like a bit of a double-standard.

Remember when Kapono's lack of production was infallible proof of Sam's inability to coach?
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Old 01-19-2009, 08:50 PM   #12 (permalink)
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SJ - you totally missed LX's sarcasm. He was pointing out that Moon is getting open looks (which teams are obviously daring him to take).
---------

Losing tight games has been a problem for us since the Vince Carter days. With Vince it was because he was only a leader on nights when we played tough teams or when there was a winning shot to be taken.

For the past couple of seasons, we seem to run out of gas at the end of games. We definitely choke away a lot of games, and we're definitely unclutch, but IMO the roster is a big part of it. With virtually no perimeter threats, our offense is predictable, and easy to top.

A team like Atlanta hands the ball to Joe Johnson in crunch time, and the defender basically has to give him a little space or he'll blow right by him. He's a threat to shoot, or drive and create. Arguably our most threatening guy right now is Bargnani, since he can get his shot off against anyone. Bosh and Parker are only threats when they're "on."
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Old 01-19-2009, 08:51 PM   #13 (permalink)
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nonsense, if Sam was coaching, Parker's layup against Phoenix would have been a +1 (and we would have missed the FT and Bosh would jam the putback for the win ... .

I don't always agree with Hollinger, but he has a point (since it's backed by statistics) when he says that the outcome in games decided by 3pt or less is purely due to luck (again, statistically better teams don't win more close games than bad teams, over the course of many seasons of data). Many of the shots we took in these close games were good shots, or good situations - so you can't blame the playcalling. Sometimes you will more than you lose.

And having a good SG/SF is not necessarily the answer, Indiana has lost more close games than us, and they have lots of wings who can slash/hit jumpers + TJ who supposedly can get to the rim at will.
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Old 01-19-2009, 08:59 PM   #14 (permalink)
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nonsense, if Sam was coaching, Parker's layup against Phoenix would have been a +1 (and we would have missed the FT and Bosh would jam the putback for the win ... .

I don't always agree with Hollinger, but he has a point (since it's backed by statistics) when he says that the outcome in games decided by 3pt or less is purely due to luck (again, statistically better teams don't win more close games than bad teams, over the course of many seasons of data). Many of the shots we took in these close games were good shots, or good situations - so you can't blame the playcalling. Sometimes you will more than you lose.

And having a good SG/SF is not necessarily the answer, Indiana has lost more close games than us, and they have lots of wings who can slash/hit jumpers + TJ who supposedly can get to the rim at will.
Indy lacks threatening front court players. Ideally you have both. That's what we're talking about. Plus, Indy has Granger, who's not really much of a slasher. He gets most of his points off open J's and by mixing it up inside a bit.
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Old 01-19-2009, 09:23 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Well, if you have quality front AND back court, then you are a title contender, right?
Indy has Granger, Dunleavy and TJ, so they have some quality there. Not at the level NJ has, but still - miles ahead of us.
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Old 01-20-2009, 01:11 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Well, if you have quality front AND back court, then you are a title contender, right?
Indy has Granger, Dunleavy and TJ, so they have some quality there. Not at the level NJ has, but still - miles ahead of us.
Bingo. And as for Indy, they're a little better than us, record wise, and not missing two of their starters...
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Old 01-20-2009, 02:05 AM   #17 (permalink)
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Based on the past experiences, Triano told them that the open guy can take the shot, not necessarily Bosh. That's why Graham and Moon wasted some shots in the last three minutes. He tried it and it didn't work. I don't know if something ever works for this team in the clutch.
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Old 01-20-2009, 05:10 AM   #18 (permalink)
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They never learn, it's always the same story: blown lead and terrible last possession.
Watching the game on Yahoo boxscore made it even more painful.
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Old 01-20-2009, 08:17 AM   #19 (permalink)
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unclutch....

unfoccussed is another word that comes to mind.
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Old 01-20-2009, 10:03 AM   #20 (permalink)
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They gotta end their relationship with Bosh for starters. It's just not working.
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