Lowry to the Knicks gaining heat again? - Page 4
Old 02-13-2014, 01:25 PM   #61 (permalink)
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Yeah, but this recent bad stretch (about .500 against mostly bad teams) is about as long a stretch as the good stretch (15 games versus 18 games) that all the optimism is built on. So shouldn't the same logic be applicable to that stretch as well? Except that stretch is less recent.

Oh, and 8-12 against the terrible, terrible east is really bad. Really really bad.
The optimism is also built on the bad stretch, where we are 9-6. For the past 5 years our bad stretches have been more like 2-13. If the bad stretch is 9-6, it's really not that bad.

It's also what you predicted before that stretch, as well as you predicting a loss in Sacramento.

The optimism is based on the entire 22-12 record since the Gay trade.
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Old 02-13-2014, 01:38 PM   #62 (permalink)
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The optimism is also built on the bad stretch, where we are 9-6. For the past 5 years our bad stretches have been more like 2-13. If the bad stretch is 9-6, it's really not that bad.

It's also what you predicted before that stretch, as well as you predicting a loss in Sacramento.

The optimism is based on the entire 22-12 record since the Gay trade.
Well, 16 games now, 9-7. Barely over .500 in a very easy stretch.

If that early stretch was also barely over .500, we wouldn't be seeing this optimism.

And I didn't say it was a bad stretch for the team - it's the "bad" stretch, of the two time frames. I'm positing that this level of play (over the past 16) will be the norm going forward, rather than a good or bad stretch.

I did indeed predict that record. Goes to show how I didn't buy into the hype of the earlier hot streak. And should give some credence to my prediction of the rest of the season, no?
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Old 02-13-2014, 01:48 PM   #63 (permalink)
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LX - Patrick's mask in your avy looks familiar. It reminded me of the Brujo from True Blood; but after a google image search it clearly isn't.
it's from zelda
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Old 02-13-2014, 01:50 PM   #64 (permalink)
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Well, 16 games now, 9-7. Barely over .500 in a very easy stretch.

If that early stretch was also barely over .500, we wouldn't be seeing this optimism.

And I didn't say it was a bad stretch for the team - it's the "bad" stretch, of the two time frames. I'm positing that this level of play (over the past 16) will be the norm going forward, rather than a good or bad stretch.

I did indeed predict that record. Goes to show how I didn't buy into the hype of the earlier hot streak. And should give some credence to my prediction of the rest of the season, no?
about as much credence as the other 12 people who predicted 9-6, and really about as much as anybody else who made a prediction.

It's a rather gloomy prediction that they'll play beat up and tired for the rest of the season. The fact remains that they did actually demonstrate they can go on a hot streak. They've proven they have that ability because they actually did it.
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Old 02-13-2014, 01:51 PM   #65 (permalink)
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it's from zelda
Is he "Link"?
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Old 02-13-2014, 02:24 PM   #66 (permalink)
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Well, 16 games now, 9-7. Barely over .500 in a very easy stretch.

If that early stretch was also barely over .500, we wouldn't be seeing this optimism.

And I didn't say it was a bad stretch for the team - it's the "bad" stretch, of the two time frames. I'm positing that this level of play (over the past 16) will be the norm going forward, rather than a good or bad stretch.

I did indeed predict that record. Goes to show how I didn't buy into the hype of the earlier hot streak. And should give some credence to my prediction of the rest of the season, no?
Two of the losses were against the Clippers, and one each against Charlotte, Boston, Sacramento, Portland, and the Lakers. Only two of those losses were at home - LAC and LAL.

Nine of those 16 games were on the road, including a tough 5-game road trip. The team went 4-5 on the road, but were 5-2 at home.

Dan, you're good at breaking stats down, but you're cherry picking numbers in this case.

Will the team run the table or repeat their earlier hot streak? Probably not, but could they play at a .550 or better clip? Absolutely, considering they're past the toughest part of their schedule and still are 4 games over. 500; the Raps' longest road trip in the second half is two games; and the Raps play 17 out of 30 at home, where they're 11-5 since the Gay trade. Also, the Raptors have played the toughest schedule of any Eastern Conference opponent (that's not saying a whole lot of course as the top-14 are in the Western Conference and the East hasn't been very good).

What's interesting is that using advanced stats, the Raptors should be four wins better than their record (according RPI, they should be 32-20). They've lost a lot of close games while many of their victories have been quite convincing. Their offensive efficiency has improved while their defensive efficiency is in the top-6. Those are positive signs.

This doesn't make the Raptors a contender. They could go 20-10 in their last 30 or 15-15, and I wouldn't be surprised given the youth on the team and their productivity of late. However, there are a lot of positives to take from the Raptors, even in the last 16 games.

http://espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/EWL

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Old 02-13-2014, 03:13 PM   #67 (permalink)
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Two of the losses were against the Clippers, and one each against Charlotte, Boston, Sacramento, Portland, and the Lakers. Only two of those losses were at home - LAC and LAL.

Nine of those 16 games were on the road, including a tough 5-game road trip. The team went 4-5 on the road, but were 5-2 at home.

Dan, you're good at breaking stats down, but you're cherry picking numbers in this case.

Will the team run the table or repeat their earlier hot streak? Probably not, but could they play at a .550 or better clip? Absolutely, considering they're past the toughest part of their schedule and still are 4 games over. 500; the Raps' longest road trip in the second half is two games; and the Raps play 17 out of 30 at home, where they're 11-5 since the Gay trade. Also, the Raptors have played the toughest schedule of any Eastern Conference opponent (that's not saying a whole lot of course as the top-14 are in the Western Conference and the East hasn't been very good).

What's interesting is that using advanced stats, the Raptors should be four wins better than their record (according RPI, they should be 32-20). They've lost a lot of close games while many of their victories have been quite convincing. Their offensive efficiency has improved while their defensive efficiency is in the top-6. Those are positive signs.

This doesn't make the Raptors a contender. They could go 20-10 in their last 30 or 15-15, and I wouldn't be surprised given the youth on the team and their productivity of late. However, there are a lot of positives to take from the Raptors, even in the last 16 games.

NBA Relative Percent Index - 2013-2014 - National Basketball Association - ESPN
.550 or better clip? Sure. The discussion started around my suggestion that the team's record since the trade (22-12, well 21-12 at the time) was not reflective of their talent, and they would not sustain a .650 the rest of the way. I suggested that their record the rest of the way would be a more realistic .600 or less, leaning more towards around .500 to .550.

Sure, lots of positives. But posters keep quoting that record since the trade like it means something for the future, and projecting it over 82 games, while I think it is more realistic to accept that perhaps they can have a 13-5 stretch once a season and otherwise play .500 ball, based on their recent regression to the mean, leaving the projection more like 45-37 over a full season. Which is decent, but the discussion of moving players, what to add, what is missing, etc, is very different when talking about a 45 win team versus a 52-53 win team.

And as for the easy stretch the rest of the way:
A) Recently they've been pretty inconsistent against "easy" teams.
B) Projecting those results to a full season doesn't work because then you ignore the results prior to the Gay trade. Yes, the team became a lot better after the trade, but the bulk of the difficult schedule the team played happened while they were losing with Gay, so they'd probably have struggled through that stretch even with the current lineup (although perhaps not to the same degree).

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Old 02-13-2014, 04:20 PM   #68 (permalink)
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Is he "Link"?
It's majora's mask. I know nothing about the game. I'm going to switch it up to a cool african mask.
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Old 02-13-2014, 04:42 PM   #69 (permalink)
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Sure, lots of positives. But posters keep quoting that record since the trade like it means something for the future, and projecting it over 82 games, while I think it is more realistic to accept that perhaps they can have a 13-5 stretch once a season and otherwise play .500 ball, based on their recent regression to the mean, leaving the projection more like 45-37 over a full season. Which is decent, but the discussion of moving players, what to add, what is missing, etc, is very different when talking about a 45 win team versus a 52-53 win team.
).
Posters were quoting that record becuase it was being suggested that optimism regarding this team should be reserved since we were only 2 games over .500 and that the team had "to go on quite a tear" in order to be "worth building on" (it was this suggestion that started the discussion). But judging this team while including the 6-12 record of a completely different roster doesn't make a whole lot of sense. With a 22-12 record, they don't need to go on quite a tear...they've already been on quite a tear. What team in a similar situation has played over .600% basketball for 30 games?

And the mean really is 64% since the Gay trade. You're assuming a mean of 50% based on your future expectations and based on a portion of their record that you are choosing or 'cherry picking'.

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Old 02-13-2014, 06:14 PM   #70 (permalink)
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It all comes back down to defense. If they get their defense back in tow, after a good break, a reasonable schedule, and a good amount of practice time, then they will play well above .500. If they can only sustain the needed level of defense now and then, I would think .500 would be about right. But what the good stretch revealed was the ability to play at a high level of defense and get stops when needed. Doing so while struggling to get their record above .500 took a lot out of them. They don't need to play like every game is a playoff game at this point. With some good planning they can manage energy levels and not drop too far from their peak, while also not suffering from many dips.
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Old 02-13-2014, 06:22 PM   #71 (permalink)
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I think it's clearer now that Amir makes an important contribution to defense.
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Old 02-13-2014, 06:26 PM   #72 (permalink)
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I think it's clearer now that Amir makes an important contribution to defense.
he's our only legitimate shot blocking presence, it's really hard to play elite defense without a player like that. JV is more of Bargnani type of shot blocker, he will get some if you attack him directly but rarely as a help defender.
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Old 02-13-2014, 09:03 PM   #73 (permalink)
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Posters were quoting that record becuase it was being suggested that optimism regarding this team should be reserved since we were only 2 games over .500 and that the team had "to go on quite a tear" in order to be "worth building on" (it was this suggestion that started the discussion). But judging this team while including the 6-12 record of a completely different roster doesn't make a whole lot of sense. With a 22-12 record, they don't need to go on quite a tear...they've already been on quite a tear. What team in a similar situation has played over .600% basketball for 30 games?

And the mean really is 64% since the Gay trade. You're assuming a mean of 50% based on your future expectations and based on a portion of their record that you are choosing or 'cherry picking'.
Fair enough. I'm just saying, come season's end, that .600 won't hold up, and then certain decisions will have passed us by - decisions that hopefully are not being made with that 22-12 record as an indicator of where the team truly is.

I'm actually assuming a mean based on what I've seen from this team, and taking more recent results into account more heavily. You can claim cherry picking all you like, but more recent results predict future trends more capably than older results do.
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Old 02-14-2014, 12:05 AM   #74 (permalink)
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amir definitely makes a difference when he's playing well - good point Ammo.

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Old 02-14-2014, 10:17 AM   #75 (permalink)
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I'm actually assuming a mean based on what I've seen from this team, and taking more recent results into account more heavily. You can claim cherry picking all you like, but more recent results predict future trends more capably than older results do.
Assuming an average isn't quite as good as the actual average. The most recent results is a 2 game winning streak.
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Old 02-14-2014, 10:35 AM   #76 (permalink)
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Assuming an average isn't quite as good as the actual average. The most recent results is a 2 game winning streak.
The actual average is 28-24. You are the one cherry picking just since the trade (which I think is reasonable). I also think it is reasonable to weight their most recent stretch more heavily than the win streak that immediately followed the trade. And you really don't need to be ridiculous and quote a 2 game sample size - I quoted a sample size almost identical (15, well 16 now, vs 18 games) to the sample where all the winning was taking place.
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Old 02-14-2014, 01:25 PM   #77 (permalink)
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The actual average is 28-24. You are the one cherry picking just since the trade (which I think is reasonable). I also think it is reasonable to weight their most recent stretch more heavily than the win streak that immediately followed the trade. And you really don't need to be ridiculous and quote a 2 game sample size - I quoted a sample size almost identical (15, well 16 now, vs 18 games) to the sample where all the winning was taking place.
yes, but not all samples are created equal. In particular, the samples that fit the theory are much more valuable, since they are obviously more accurate (since they fit the theory). And yes, that actually is an example of circular logic, thank you in advance joeyjojo.
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Old 02-14-2014, 02:16 PM   #78 (permalink)
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The actual average is 28-24. You are the one cherry picking just since the trade (which I think is reasonable). I also think it is reasonable to weight their most recent stretch more heavily than the win streak that immediately followed the trade. And you really don't need to be ridiculous and quote a 2 game sample size - I quoted a sample size almost identical (15, well 16 now, vs 18 games) to the sample where all the winning was taking place.
It's not just reasonable to judge the team since the trade, it's completely logical. The entire dynamic of the team was changed. It would be unreasonable not to do so.

Why not pick the last 12 games as a sample size?? (We're stretching a little far back going to 16). Last 12 games; 8-4 - 67%. Or is that to much winning taking place? Now we're both playing pick-up hockey with no icing.

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Old 02-14-2014, 02:32 PM   #79 (permalink)
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It's not just reasonable to judge the team since the trade, it's completely logical. The entire dynamic of the team was changed. It would be unreasonable not to do so.
Yeah, that's what I said.
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Old 02-17-2014, 03:04 PM   #80 (permalink)
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New York Knicks receive: Kyle Lowry and Dwight Buycks

Toronto Raptors receive: Tim Hardaway Jr., Raymond Felton, Cole Aldrich and a 2018 lottery-protected first-round pick

View this trade in the ESPN Trade Machine

Why I want to see it: Let's just get this over with, shall we? The Knicks are an absolute mess at point guard, and Lowry would garner instant cult status in New York with his gutsy flair and bulldog intensity on both ends of the floor. The Knicks won't want to part with two long-term assets, but if you're going to acquire the East's best point guard right now, you're going to have to pay up.

Yes, the Knicks will risk losing Lowry to free agency over the summer, but there are two reasons why they shouldn't be worried on that front. One, the Knicks play in New York, which is a pretty big deal. Two, they'd own his Bird rights, which is gold for a capped-out team like the Knicks.

The Knicks can't dream of bringing in a talent like Lowry on the open market unless they possess the precious Bird rights that allow teams over the cap to re-sign their own free agents. Lowry, who boasts a 20.1 PER, is both younger and better than Felton has ever been, especially on the defensive end, where Felton unfurls a red carpet to the rim. Adding Lowry could make the Knicks the third-best team in the East, even if that's a mostly cosmetic achievement.

The deal would add to Masai Ujiri's stockpile of Knicks draft picks while giving the Raptors an exciting young player in Hardaway. The Raptors already own the Knicks' 2016 first-rounder and the team's 2017 second-rounder from last summer's Andrea Bargnani trade, so it's easy to see why Jim Dolan would be reluctant to send yet another pick over the border. However, tacking lottery protection to the pick would ease some of their concerns in the event the Knicks don't turn it around soon.
NBA - Omer Asik to Trail Blazers among five intriguing trades - ESPN
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