Lowe: Market for Lowry given his reputation won't be strong - Page 2
Old 02-19-2014, 03:47 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Can we not give him 10M$ a year for four years plus performance incentives that make it go to 12M$ a year? Does CBA allow something like that?
We can, but if the incentives are "likely" - ie the sort of incentives he'd probably actually earn - they count against the cap as though they were part of the base salary - so you're effectively paying him 12M per year. And any unlikely incentives would probably not convince him to sign - it would effectively just be a 10M offer.
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Old 02-19-2014, 03:58 PM   #22 (permalink)
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I think some underestimate how much he'll get on the open market. Once agents start getting other teams involved, his asking price will jump. Thinking that this team, or any team, can make their offer and it's going to be accepted without being leveraged is foolish. Variables can change so quickly when teams have as much of a shot as his current (possibly former) team.
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Old 02-19-2014, 04:06 PM   #23 (permalink)
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We can, but if the incentives are "likely" - ie the sort of incentives he'd probably actually earn - they count against the cap as though they were part of the base salary - so you're effectively paying him 12M per year. And any unlikely incentives would probably not convince him to sign - it would effectively just be a 10M offer.
Thank you for clearing that up. I understand now why it is not something that is used as often as one would expect. However, in this case, I still think it would make sense. If he keeps playing like he has been playing this year, I'd be happy paying him 12M$ a year. If not, at least the team saves some cash even though the cap takes that 12M$ hit.
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Old 02-19-2014, 04:10 PM   #24 (permalink)
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really? You think he doesn't deserve ty lawson/jrue holiday money?
as far as contract year, he played like this 2 seasons ago until he got hurt. Even last year, he was just as good until he got hurt.

injury concerns, sure - I get that. But he is playing better than point guards who got 12M, so I suspect that's where his market value will be, with a discount for attitude/injury.
Actually I am not too concerned with injuries/ attitude, but I don't see him getting 12/per for 3-4 years. It's not about if I think he is worth it or not, it's about the big picture and his value based on demand. If you have DD at 10/per, Lowry should be up there as well. Not more than that.
Lawson's contract is actually more than Holiday's though which is around 12/per on average. Don't forget that Holiday is only 23 and Lawson 26 while Lowry is already 28 so age although only 2 years is a factor.

Holiday's salary:
2013-2014 - 9,713,484
2014-2015 - 10,404,495
2015-2016 - 11,095,507
2016-2017 - 11,786,518

Lawson's salary:
2013-2014 - 10,786,517
2014-2015 - 11,595,506
2015-2016 - 12,404,495
2016-2017 - 13,213,482

Last edited by Tommy C; 02-19-2014 at 04:12 PM.
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Old 02-19-2014, 04:16 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Actually I am not too concerned with injuries/ attitude, but I don't see him getting 12/per for 3-4 years. It's not about if I think he is worth it or not, it's about the big picture and his value based on demand. If you have DD at 10/per, Lowry should be up there as well. Not more than that.
Lawson's contract is actually more than Holiday's though which is around 12/per on average. Don't forget that Holiday is only 23 and Lawson 26 while Lowry is already 28 so age although only 2 years is a factor.
And Lawson I believe signed his contract just before his 25th birthday and was playing incredible basketball at the time.
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Old 02-19-2014, 04:19 PM   #26 (permalink)
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And Lawson I believe signed his contract just before his 25th birthday and was playing incredible basketball at the time.
You are correct, sir.
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Old 02-19-2014, 07:57 PM   #27 (permalink)
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And Lawson I believe signed his contract just before his 25th birthday and was playing incredible basketball at the time.
and lowry is not? not to mention that at no point in his career was lawson a good defensive player (nor was he projected to ever be one).

The age difference is meaningless, 28 years is prime time, I never heard of a 28 year old getting less money than a 25 year old for the same level of performance. Most players get their biggest contracts around 28 as a matter of fact. Point guards who can shoot have long careers too, as evidenced by nash who got 10M at the ripe age of 36.

So if Jrue and Ty got an average of 11 and 12, you really think Lowry's agent is not going to ask for something similar? Did you see Lowry outplay Wall last night? Wall is making the max, you think Lowry's agent will not point to games like those?

Not to mention that Jrue/Ty were not free agents when they signed those contracts. There was no bidding war for their services. If both LA and Orlando want him and one team offers 10, what are the odds of the other raising it up to 11 or 12?

In free agency you get two types of contracts, the overpaid ones (for guys that coveted by multiple teams) and the bargains (for guys that are overlooked). That's why Splitter got 9M and Lopez got 5, despite being fairly similar. And that's why Smith got 14M and Milsap 8.

I can probably guarantee that if we win a round in the playoffs and lowry plays like he did last night, he will get a 12M offer. I'd bet on it.
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Old 02-19-2014, 08:01 PM   #28 (permalink)
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That being said, all it takes is one team to blow their brains out on one player.
exactly. And a good playoff run will greatly increase the chances of that happening ... At least he didn't make it to the all star team
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Old 02-19-2014, 08:03 PM   #29 (permalink)
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If you have DD at 10/per, Lowry should be up there as well. Not more than that.
most people consider lowry better, so that's not the best argument. But the key point is that it makes no difference where lowry "should be". Smith should be at 10M and knight should be at 5M, and holiday should probably be at 8M, but they're not.
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Old 02-19-2014, 11:44 PM   #30 (permalink)
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Tonight's game against Chicago won't help his value. His emotions were a bit out of control. He was the old Lowry. He needs to keep his cool.
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Old 02-19-2014, 11:49 PM   #31 (permalink)
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Tonight's game against Chicago won't help his value. His emotions were a bit out of control. He was the old Lowry. He needs to keep his cool.
I don't think a players value swings based on one game. Besides, off game for him and in foul trouble, still ends the night with 16pts/7asts/5reb (7-7 FT). Kyle Lowry got to the line 7 times tonight, our bigs (4 players) got to the line a combined 4 times.
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Old 02-20-2014, 12:16 AM   #32 (permalink)
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I don't think a players value swings based on one game. Besides, off game for him and in foul trouble, still ends the night with 16pts/7asts/5reb (7-7 FT). Kyle Lowry got to the line 7 times tonight, our bigs (4 players) got to the line a combined 4 times.
No they don't swing based on one game, so hopefully he gets the emotions back in check for Friday.
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Old 02-20-2014, 12:21 AM   #33 (permalink)
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No they don't swing based on one game, so hopefully he gets the emotions back in check for Friday.
Mehh, i like the emotion. There were 7 technicals tonight, chalk it up to one of those games. The refs were ridiculous tonight imo.
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Old 02-20-2014, 12:24 AM   #34 (permalink)
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Mehh, i like the emotion. There were 7 technicals tonight, chalk it up to one of those games. The refs were ridiculous tonight imo.
It wasn't just the tech, he's just been acting a little crazy. He made it a little to personal with Hinrich for about a 5 minute stretch, and threw the ball away on the one flop where he had Hinrich on his back. He did it twice and it could have been two wasted possessions, but the refs gave him the benefit of the doubt on the first call.
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Old 02-20-2014, 01:16 AM   #35 (permalink)
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Tonight's game against Chicago won't help his value. His emotions were a bit out of control. He was the old Lowry. He needs to keep his cool.
one game is an indicator for nothing. And he wasn't that bad tonight, in fact he's the only starter with a positive +/-. His shot didn't fall and he was probably tired after chasing (and outplaying) wall last night, not the easiest of assignments. His temper is at times a problem, but it's also what makes him great - he's a pitbull all the time.
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