Liston: 45 Wins Won’t Be a Layup - Page 3
Old 09-23-2009, 08:00 AM   #41 (permalink)
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our sched is always freaking whack!!

the point is, this season there is real optimism based on several good moves to acquire solid starters and bench players, and a lot of unloading of dead wood on the part of BC. are we a 50+ game winning team? we all have our opinions and that is good. I for one believe that 53-55 wins are possible. The key this season is Bosh will be inspired to play at a level we have not seen yet, he has put on some weight which should help him down the stretch, we have 5 solid starters and at least 5 guys on the bench that can play. we have youth, we have vets, we have coaching committed to defense and a more transition based offense which will keep us out of that horrid plodding offense we ran last season. I believe that our defense need only improve about 10% to get us 10 more wins as we lost many games late or gave up huge leads (i can think of 2 against the Celtics right off the top of my head). that team is long gone! I believe that teams will have nightmares with our rotations, especially in our front court. i believe right now, we are at least a .500% team. We have the ability to improve another 10% on defense as well and our offense is at least that much better, so as i see it, we have the ability, before we even play a game, to be 30% better out of the gate. As i see it, that translates easily into 15 - 20 wins as the line between winning and losing is very fine indeed.

IMHO of course happy autumn all!

Last edited by takman_777; 09-23-2009 at 08:01 AM. Reason: typo
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Old 09-23-2009, 08:46 AM   #42 (permalink)
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I think it was a quite good analysis from the op. This team has (on the paper) a good selection of player, a competitive starting 5, a deep bench, a coach that seems to fit in and a full arena . This is much POTENTIAL, but nothing else. Bosh last year started very strong, but I think he faded away as he saw that his efforts was not enough to win. Bargnani on the other hand started weak but finished strong. Calderon was hurt half the time with no back-up PG (at least no PG that feeled the team was sticking with it).

I think this year and the win-loose ratio will be decided from the beginning. Winning gives confidence and confidence is what it needs to glue this players together, to create chemistry. Defending is our most critical sector. We have brought some good defenders but it will be team defense that decides close games. So it will be the team defense that will win or loose games. Team defense is a matter of chemistry and confidence.

Since this aspect is very fragile we can end up with 35 wins as with 50. If the chemistry goes off we could also be contenders.

But we will never be if we set us limits before we begin. The aim of this team should be to find a right balance between offense and defense, to grow on defense and be a funny team on offense (the Raptors have a good arena, exite 'em).

If all this tiles fall in place they should be able to reach playoffs, perhaps even with a good seeding. But we have seen it 3 years ago (where we failed against New Jersey). There is no safe berth. It has to be battled out anyway. And if you want to win you have to beat em all.

I for myself hope they make the playoffs as the 8team in east, and win the east taking out the celtics, orlando and the cavs
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Old 09-23-2009, 09:04 AM   #43 (permalink)
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balls to the wall, now that's the way to go! welcome to rf stevett. any questions, just fire away.
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Old 09-23-2009, 10:40 AM   #44 (permalink)
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I just don't think, as a fan, not some stats analyst, that i could take this team sliding below 45 wins this year. Given all the retooling, and the upgrading, and yes, this team is more talented right now than it was last year, i don't think i could take it. Mired in mediocrity is a nightmare to me, and if this team is a .500 team then what do we do?

Shit, don't want to play this game. Nice post Liston, but the statistical what-iffing irks me because we haven't played a game and it gets me thinking about shit six months from now. damn you!!!!
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Old 09-23-2009, 11:12 AM   #45 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by jeffb View Post
500ish?

Is this guy on crack?

+ i would add Jack & Bargnani to the "reasonable" defenders. If we get less then 45wins i'll be shocked and absolutely disapointed.Oh and Bosh will be as good as gone if we're .500ish because there is no way we'll have playoff success being a 7-8th seed.
For the Raptors to win 45 games next season, they'll have to improve on last season's total by 12 wins. Here are the teams that improved by at least 12 wins from 2007-08 to 2008-09:

Miami: +28 (D-Wade's return to health and superstardom)
Cleveland: +21 (LeBron's ascension to all-time greatness, the addition of Mo Williams)
Portland: +13 (Brandon Roy's improvement to stardom, the additions of Greg Oden and Rudy Fernandez)

I don't think it's crazy to say that the Raptors are a longshot to improve by 12 games when you consider what it takes to make that kind of improvement. To make that prediction, you have to assume that all of these things will happen:

1. Chris Bosh will raise his game to another level after being essentially the same player in each his past four seasons
2. The Bargnani we saw in the second half of last season will be presented for the entirety of next season
3. Hedo Turkoglu will return to his 2007-08 form rather than his not-so-great performance in 2008-09
4. The Raptors' bench will be drastically improved with the new additions

Personally, I think #4 is pretty much a lock since the Raptors' bench was putrid last season and B.C. has added some proven performers in Jarrett Jack, Rasho Nesterovic and Reggie Evans. But 1, 2 and 3? I could see one of those happening and maybe even two, but all three is a longshot. I know it's nice to assume that everything is going to fall into place the way you'd like it to, but life just doesn't tend to work that way.
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Old 09-23-2009, 01:20 PM   #46 (permalink)
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how about this, the 2006 Raptors have improved by 18, with fewer changes than we did this season.

we had a compromised point guard for 80% of the season, and while he played more than wade, his play was sub par. Compounded by the lack of a backup. We also had a horriffic bench and basically had a shadow of Bosh for the month of december (and a shadow of Bargnani for that matter).

The plain truth is that this team has 12 different players compared to last seasn, and any attempt to compare the two records is futile. We will be very very different than last season, and the 3 pieces we have are clearly above average, probably top 10 at their position.
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Old 09-23-2009, 05:03 PM   #47 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by ClingRap View Post
Nice post Liston, but the statistical what-iffing irks me because we haven't played a game and it gets me thinking about shit six months from now. damn you!!!!
Ah, it's a long off-season and we have to speculate about something! It is a big guessing game, but the sole purpose was to think about a couple of key issues that would lead to the magic 4 or 5th playoff spot - so we have a chance to get to the second round. I think data on opponent's FG was interesting - but, of course, its a whole other thing to execute of defensive schemes to get us there.
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Old 09-23-2009, 05:13 PM   #48 (permalink)
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1. Chris Bosh will raise his game to another level after being essentially the same player in each his past four seasons
2. The Bargnani we saw in the second half of last season will be presented for the entirety of next season
3. Hedo Turkoglu will return to his 2007-08 form rather than his not-so-great performance in 2008-09
4. The Raptors' bench will be drastically improved with the new additions

1. I believe Bosh will take it to another kevel (contract year). Even though i think if he continues with his numbers of 22/10 it would be enough with much more talent around him.

2. I believe Bargnani will be inconsistent at times but overall with be the player we saw the final 50+ games of the season ( i predict 18ppg/7rpg)

3. Hedo needs to do exactly what he did last season, no more no less 16/5/5

4. Our Bench is vastly improved over last year, no contest. Now we'll see how long it takes for everyone to get aclamated to the system/teammates.


Jack,Belinelli, Wright, Evans, Johnson, Rasho>>>>>>>>>>Ukic, Solomon,Kapono, Adams,Moon, Voskhul
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