How much is Bargnani really worth?
Old 04-06-2011, 05:55 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Before Tuesday, Toronto had played 11 games without Bargnani, and had gone 2-9. However, those 11 games were played against teams with a combined .622 winning percentage. (For an idea of how good that is, think how many times the Raptors, at full strength, would beat the likes of Orlando or Denver given 11 chances.)

In those games, the Raptors have scored fewer points per game than usual, allowed fewer points than usual and rebounded the ball slightly better than usual -or pretty much what anybody who has watched Bargnani play would expect.

Some advanced statistics, however, present Bargnani's worth in a far more negative light. According to 82games. com, the Raptors score 3.5 more points per 100 possessions when Bargnani is on the floor compared to when he is off it, but surrender 6.1 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is off the floor. Basically, his poor defence outweighs his offensive output by an average of 2.6 points per 100 possessions.

Naturally, those statistics do not exist in a vacuum -they are dependent on whom he is playing with and whom he is playing against.

The adjusted plus-minus statistic tries to eliminate all of the variables, coming up with a formula that measures a player's hypothetical performance as if he were playing against five perfectly average players and playing with four other perfectly average players all of the time. For the last two years, Bargnani has been at -5.14 points per 100 possessions. (The same statistic rates Ed Davis as the worst Raptor and ranks Earl Watson comparably to Pau Gasol, so take that with nine pounds of salt.)

Basketball does not have a statistical bible, as there are far more variables than in baseball. The numbers, though, make us think and ask questions, such as the one posed above.

Bargnani's value is just about negligible. He gives the Raptors the most varied offensive option they have, and that invariably makes a team more dangerous. He provides historically bad rebounding and poor help defence, which significantly takes away from that. And, for the record, he is owed US$42-million over the next four years.

Anecdotally, the Raptors looked like a livelier, more frenetic team over the weekend. Sure, Bargnani was a significant part of other wins this season. But the argument his presence is a major boon to the Raptors now, and particularly in the future, continues to weaken.
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Old 04-06-2011, 06:36 AM   #2 (permalink)
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lol !
or how make an article about the obvious !
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Old 04-06-2011, 07:46 AM   #3 (permalink)
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vegas tends to support the idea that he's negligible. When he is out the over/under and spread barely shift. For the last game the projected line with him out was the exact same for the o/u as the line including him, and the spread was off by .5. That's been the trend through the whole season. So if you want to follow the money - there you have it.
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Old 04-06-2011, 11:16 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Meh. Trade this italian douche bag.

Bargnani for Terrence Williams and Kyle Lowry.
Get rid of Calderon and give Lowry or Bayless the Job as a starter.
Bring in Williams who is an awesome athlete, drives to the rim and draws fouls, is a solid one on one defender and has still so much upside. I fuckin love him

Then bring in Spencer Hawes. Yup Hawes from the 76ers. I know he isnt that great, but hes still young and is a solid Center. He should be a perfect fit for Ed Davis. Hes bringing more swagger on the court how the soft italian and has a good midrange game. AND hes a good help defender

Draft the best prospect in the draft. And fuck the position. Draft a SF, a C or a Pg. Just draft the best. Then u got more trade pieces in Kleiza, Weems, Reggie and others.

Our line-up

Bayless/Lowry
DeRozan/Barbosa
T.Williams/J.Johnson
Davis/A.Johnson
Haws/Dorsey

And dont forget the draft pick!
Thanks for your time
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Old 04-06-2011, 11:25 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Raptor99 View Post
Meh. Trade this italian douche bag.

Bargnani for Terrence Williams and Kyle Lowry.
Get rid of Calderon and give Lowry or Bayless the Job as a starter.
Bring in Williams who is an awesome athlete, drives to the rim and draws fouls, is a solid one on one defender and has still so much upside. I fuckin love him

Then bring in Spencer Hawes. Yup Hawes from the 76ers. I know he isnt that great, but hes still young and is a solid Center. He should be a perfect fit for Ed Davis. Hes bringing more swagger on the court how the soft italian and has a good midrange game. AND hes a good help defender

Draft the best prospect in the draft. And fuck the position. Draft a SF, a C or a Pg. Just draft the best. Then u got more trade pieces in Kleiza, Weems, Reggie and others.

Our line-up

Bayless/Lowry
DeRozan/Barbosa
T.Williams/J.Johnson
Davis/A.Johnson
Haws/Dorsey

And dont forget the draft pick!
Thanks for your time
right..the rockets are just going to give up one of the all round better point guards in the league? and we get haws for nothing?....

and about the article, i dont think anyone needs to look at stats to realize how bad Bargs is...
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Old 04-06-2011, 11:35 AM   #6 (permalink)
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right..the rockets are just going to give up one of the all round better point guards in the league? and we get haws for nothing?....

and about the article, i dont think anyone needs to look at stats to realize how bad Bargs is...
Williams would be a filler for the Rockets. Hes burried on their bench. And Bargs/Lowry would be straight up. We could give them a 2nd rounder too.

And Hawes? The 6ers arent high on him and i wrote that we have a few pieces. Weems plus filler for Hawes wouldnt be a problem....
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Old 04-06-2011, 12:51 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Raptor99 View Post
Williams would be a filler for the Rockets. Hes burried on their bench. And Bargs/Lowry would be straight up. We could give them a 2nd rounder too.

And Hawes? The 6ers arent high on him and i wrote that we have a few pieces. Weems plus filler for Hawes wouldnt be a problem....
Lets Rephrase what was just said.

Lowry isn't going anywhere. Especially not for Bargs, and especially now that Houston traded Brooks.

AND Philly has enough wing players, they wont want Weems.
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Old 04-06-2011, 01:09 PM   #8 (permalink)
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LOL....oh man only Bargs would get this over analyzed....2.6 point difference, meh....id like them to show other Raptors and other players in the league, bet you they are plenty that look alot worse
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Old 04-06-2011, 01:15 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Some GMs and coaches wouldn't spare a second to even consider him.

Some still drool over his potential and scoring ability.

That being understood, the GMs who like Bargnani would use the league wide perception that he is a god awful defender to get him at a bargain.
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Old 04-06-2011, 02:24 PM   #10 (permalink)
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LOL....oh man only Bargs would get this over analyzed....2.6 point difference, meh....id like them to show other Raptors and other players in the league, bet you they are plenty that look alot worse
Dirk sees his team get scored on more, by 6+points, when he is off the floor, for an overall differential of 16. In year five the differential was 18+.

Andrea sees his team get scored on by 5-6 points more when he is on the floor than when he is off. That's pretty hard for a team to absorb, especially from a big, and what is supposed to be clearly the best player on the team.
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Old 04-06-2011, 02:31 PM   #11 (permalink)
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How much is Bargnani really worth?

i've been a staunch supporter of AB over the last few years...but i have to admit that it's time for BC to do some very quiet shopping around the league to see what he could get in return
what that return is i don't know...i'm just not qualified to say what his value is
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Old 04-06-2011, 04:20 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by LX View Post
Dirk sees his team get scored on more, by 6+points, when he is off the floor, for an overall differential of 16. In year five the differential was 18+.

Andrea sees his team get scored on by 5-6 points more when he is on the floor than when he is off. That's pretty hard for a team to absorb, especially from a big, and what is supposed to be clearly the best player on the team.
comparing him to dirk just isnt fair....
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Old 04-06-2011, 04:35 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Didn't Golden-state stated they want Barg a few year back?
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Old 04-06-2011, 04:41 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Love to know what kind of value other teams put on him. I bet Boston would love him. Same with Miami.
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Old 04-06-2011, 04:46 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Love to know what kind of value other teams put on him. I bet Boston would love him. Same with Miami.
I think garnett would kill him out of frustration lol
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Old 04-06-2011, 05:02 PM   #16 (permalink)
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comparing him to dirk just isnt fair....
Ok how about Kwame Brown?

Kwame's team gives up 1.8 more points when he is on the floor, and they score 4.1 less. So overall, Andrea has a bit better impact as Kwame, even with all of his scoring.
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Old 04-06-2011, 05:05 PM   #17 (permalink)
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LOL OWNED
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Old 04-06-2011, 05:05 PM   #18 (permalink)
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I think garnett would kill him out of frustration lol
either that, or we would actually see him hustle out of sheer fear of garnett
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Old 04-06-2011, 05:31 PM   #19 (permalink)
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anybody watch the bulls broadcast,

they themselves were saying the raps look much better with Bargnani out on the floor, the offense runs better, players get better shots,

all I know is when I watch the games without Bargs we don't look that good, when he is playing the game is much more watchable and interesting, considering how difficult it is watching this team play basketball,
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Old 04-06-2011, 05:44 PM   #20 (permalink)
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all I know is when I watch the games without Bargs we don't look that good, when he is playing the game is much more watchable and interesting,
So this what it looks like watching a Raptor Game through the eyes of a Bargnani Fanboy. Interesting, the game is "more watchable and interesting" when Bargnani is on the floor.

Last edited by RAPMAN; 04-06-2011 at 05:51 PM.
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