Hollinger's thoughts on Gay
Old 02-11-2013, 10:29 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Hollinger's thoughts on Gay

From Sept. 2012.

Two months before he was hired by the Grizz.

Quote:
Scouting report
+ Smooth, long wing with high-arcing jump shot. Can shoot over the top of a defense.
+ Outstanding transition finisher. Shies from contact and doesn't draw fouls.
+ Doesn't see the floor once he starts dribbling. Underachieves defensively.

Analysis
Gay has All-Star talent, but his jump shot let him down last season and he hasn't picked up his game in other areas. For starters, there's the jumper. Gay's stroke looks wonderful, but it doesn't go in as often as you think. Last season he made only 33.8 percent of his long 2s, and his 31.2 percent mark on 3s dropped his career mark to just 34.7 percent. He can get his shot off against anyone, and there's value in that, but there's not a lot of evidence that he's an above-average shooter.

What does have value is when he takes shots near the basket. Gay shot 64 percent at the rim and had a high foul rate for a jump shooter; in particular, if he gets a step going right, he can throw down some vicious dunks. He also ranked in the top quarter of small forwards in both rebounds and blocks. In a related story, he played a lot of small-ball 4 and at 6-foot-9 may continue doing so going forward.

However, he regressed in other areas. Gay is guilty of dribble blindness, and while he's improved from a few years ago, he still ranked among the bottom 10 small forwards in pure point rating. Defensively, he's had a hard time converting elite athleticism into decent results. His length nets him a lot of blocks and steals, but the Grizzlies gave up 6.0 more points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor.
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Old 02-11-2013, 10:35 AM   #2 (permalink)
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As far as all other NBA Analysts go, Raptors seem to have won this trade...

However Mr Stat doesn't think so...
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Old 02-11-2013, 10:49 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Judging a player like Gay on points per 100 against is misleading.... all top players coast through most of the game defensively..... I'd like to see his defensive rating on just 4th quarters, because even if he's considered an average defender, he has the tools and ability to be an above average defender and can also guard both wing spots unlike most SG's. So he's bringing something we desperately needed because even if we switch, he's one less guy to worry about. Having the ability to intensify his D when needed is also something we haven't had in a long time. Sure, he could be better all game long, but if he brings it when the game gets cranked up, he's bringing something special that we've been missing for a long time.
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Old 02-11-2013, 10:57 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Because you didn't post a link I don't know the date of this article but I'm assuming it's after the trade, meaning anything he has to say is irrelevant because he was one of the biggest reasons they traded Gay. All he talks about is stats, and as soon as Gay got traded, he stats took a big jump in every category expect threes.

Quote:
He can get his shot off against anyone, and there's value in that, but there's not a lot of evidence that he's an above-average shooter
This basically sums up his entire philosophy. The intangible aspect of being able to shoot over defenders has some value but because his stats aren't nice it means he has no value here any more than an average shooter. What stats don't show you is those kind of shots are more difficult than normal shots, meaning they have less chance of going in the first place. Does that mean players should stop taking them? Maybe, but I've yet to see a championship team without a player like that on the team.
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Old 02-11-2013, 11:04 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Isn't hollinger a Grizzlies employee?
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Old 02-11-2013, 11:08 AM   #6 (permalink)
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He's just trying to make his own trade idea look good... When in reality we won this trade.
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Old 02-11-2013, 11:25 AM   #7 (permalink)
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This is from offseason
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Old 02-11-2013, 11:27 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Yeah, sorry I edited my original post.

It's from Sept. 2012.

He was hired by the Grizz in December.
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Old 02-11-2013, 11:43 AM   #9 (permalink)
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I may be mistaken, but this looks like one of the player profiles Hollinger writes for every player at the start of the season (or at least used to write before he joined the Grizz). He's not very high on Rudy, fairly or unfairly, and there's the speculation that he was one of the people pushing for him to be traded, which must have been a divisive issue within the organization.
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Old 02-11-2013, 01:09 PM   #10 (permalink)
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It would be interesting to see a profile of the various analysts strengths/weaknesses:

Whorelinger: Came up with PER, however depends overly on use of stats for analysis to his team's detriment.
Stephen A. Smith:
Adrian Wojnarowski:
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Old 02-11-2013, 01:21 PM   #11 (permalink)
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It's a pretty accurate assessment. If you watched the last two games you can see the dribble blindness. He looks far too much like Bargnani in that respect. I don't know about the defense. Considering how well he has rebounded, provided help, and used his length and athleticism, I'm thinking Hollinger is resting too much on numbers there. I vaguely recall Memphis being more about shutting teams down when they go to the bench. All the same, I hope to see the defense improve here yet. It's been nice in stretches, but lacking at other times.

Ultimately Rudy is a guy that doesn't have the best contract, and that magnifies his deficiencies. As long as this team looks to make the most of his overall strengths, and not bring his payscale into it, they'll be good. Rudy has a chance to make a big mark here, within a team that suits his game much better. That's what matters most. It's not like he's one-dimensional. He just doesn't stand out as much as others. A guy like Carmelo has had the same thing happen to him over the years.

Last edited by LX; 02-11-2013 at 01:25 PM.
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Old 02-11-2013, 01:25 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LX View Post
It's a pretty accurate assessment. If you watched the last two games you can see the dribble blindness. He looks far too much like Bargnani in that respect. I don't know about the defense. Considering how well he has rebounded, provided help, and used his length and athleticism, I'm thinking Hollinger is resting too much on numbers there. I vaguely recall Memphis being more about shutting teams down when they go to the bench. All the same, I hope to see the defense improve here yet. It's been nice in stretches, but lacking at other times.

Ultimately Rudy is a guy that doesn't have the best contract, and that magnifies his deficiencies. As long as this team looks to make the most of his overall strengths, and not bring his payscale into it, they'll be good. Rudy has a chance to make a big mark here, within a team that suits his game much better. That's what matters most. It's not like he's one-dimensional. He just doesn't stand out as much as others.
Gay is a good passer in the post.
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Old 02-11-2013, 01:26 PM   #13 (permalink)
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meh.

numbers tell a good story, you can't ignore them completely, but players win games.

so rudy gay is only average on long 2's.... yet he is absolutely deadly in late game situations. Single handed won it for Toronto already a few times. Toronto isn't in the game against Indiana with out him showing up in the 4th and taking over.

Hollinger has made a living off of using numbers, and then stating his arguments in such a way that he incites rage...its a good schtick, he's paid well.

Thats as far as I take it with him.
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Old 02-11-2013, 01:36 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by carp View Post
Gay is a good passer in the post.
Yeah - exactly. It's a matter of fitting everything together. The ball can stick in his hands on the perimeter and he dribbles into traffic after waiting too long. At the same time he can create his own shot. They just need to keep the ball moving better and ensure he has enough options to work with. I would guess that he is going to become more efficient and make better decisions soon enough. In Memphis the post was occupied, and the offense was sort of split between the bigs playing inside out, involving themselves or shooters outside, and Rudy working on his own a lot. If we can use him more in the post, and increase the pace overall, then he is going to benefit as being more of a piece of the offense, rather than one branch of it. We've already seen him making some pretty nice passes to get other guys involved. All that has to be worked on is decisions in the halfcourt - he needs to make quicker decisions, and he should be able to when he gets a better feel for guys.
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Old 02-11-2013, 01:56 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Lets see, since he has been here he has:

-Been our top scorer
-Been able to actually get fouls called (unlike Derozen)
- has rebounded beastly (helping us beat one of the top rebounding teams in the league)
- has Won us at least 1 game that was down to the wire (1.7 second remaining)
- can get it done in crunch time

All of this happening in a span of 4 games. Our team can finally close out games (minus Miami...but its Miami) and we finally have a shooter that can hit shots in the clutch. If anyone still this we lost on this trade, well there just naive and haters because we got exactly what we seriously needed on this team. A Closer, All Star, that can hit shots when they count and actually lead the team. BC

Oh and lets not forget that he only has 2 years left on his deal after this year (although its an expensive deal).....now all we need is another deal to bring in a legit 1.5 option and actually have this team land in the Lux tax for once!
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Old 02-11-2013, 02:06 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Quote:
-Been able to actually get fouls called (unlike Derozen)
pretty sure derozan's been getting to the line more effectively. not positive, but you should maybe look into it.
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Old 02-11-2013, 02:08 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by dfunkie1 View Post
pretty sure derozan's been getting to the line more effectively. not positive, but you should maybe look into it.
It's inconsistent with him, look at last night. He couldn't buy a call vs NO.
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Old 02-11-2013, 02:10 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by dfunkie1 View Post
pretty sure derozan's been getting to the line more effectively. not positive, but you should maybe look into it.
Not nearly as much as Gay but then again, it's Gay and the name means something to the refs.
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Old 02-11-2013, 02:14 PM   #19 (permalink)
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looked it up

demar gets more

both since gay has been a raptor and all season before it.


Quote:
It's inconsistent with him, look at last night. He couldn't buy a call vs NO.
last night was a horrible game for him, but yeah, i think the inconsistency is more or less with the refs whistles than it is with him taking contact.
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Old 02-11-2013, 02:16 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dfunkie1 View Post
looked it up

demar gets more

both since gay has been a raptor and all season before it.




last night was a horrible game for him, but yeah, i think the inconsistency is more or less with the refs whistles than it is with him taking contact.
It's both, some games he doesn't get calls yes, other games he takes 8 fadeaways out of 13 shots. lol
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