Hollinger's Raptors Team Forecast
Old 09-30-2008, 03:56 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Hollinger's Team Forcast

For what its worth, here is what John thinks

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/traini...rsForecast0809


Quote:
Outlook
In projecting Toronto's record, it's important to note that they had the performance of a 52-win team a year ago, even though they only won 41 games, and that they could have won even more had they not sabotaged themselves by keeping Bargnani in the rotation.


The trade for O'Neal offers another potential bright spot. While Calderon can take over most of the minutes that Ford played a year ago, O'Neal fills in a large defensive void and, if healthy, should greatly improve Toronto at this end. That's the rub, of course -- I projected him to average 27 minutes a game, including injury time-outs, and even that may have been optimistic.



Additionally, the bench seems nowhere near as strong as the unit from a year ago. Toronto finds itself counting on players like Ukic, Kapono and Bargnani, and based on their numbers from a season ago that's a scary proposition indeed. It's possible Bargnani surprises us with a breakout year, but the odds of the other two doing so are remote.



Add it all up and you have a sleeper in the East, but one whose lack of depth and injury-prone frontcourt make it unlikely to pile up a huge regular-season victory total. They may very well win a round in the playoffs, but they're not quite ready to move into the conference's upper crust yet.

Quote:
Prediction: 47-35, 3rd in Atlantic Division, T-5th in Eastern Conference

Actually Emailing this dude, talks about wings and doesnt mention Moon
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Old 09-30-2008, 04:05 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Hollinger's Raptors Team Forecast

Pretty accurate assessment if you ask me. Would you guys agree?

Quote:
Originally Posted by John Hollinger
Outlook

In projecting Toronto's record, it's important to note that they had the performance of a 52-win team a year ago, even though they only won 41 games, and that they could have won even more had they not sabotaged themselves by keeping Bargnani in the rotation.

The trade for O'Neal offers another potential bright spot. While Calderon can take over most of the minutes that Ford played a year ago, O'Neal fills in a large defensive void and, if healthy, should greatly improve Toronto at this end. That's the rub, of course -- I projected him to average 27 minutes a game, including injury time-outs, and even that may have been optimistic.

Additionally, the bench seems nowhere near as strong as the unit from a year ago. Toronto finds itself counting on players like Ukic, Kapono and Bargnani, and based on their numbers from a season ago that's a scary proposition indeed. It's possible Bargnani surprises us with a breakout year, but the odds of the other two doing so are remote.

Add it all up and you have a sleeper in the East, but one whose lack of depth and injury-prone frontcourt make it unlikely to pile up a huge regular-season victory total. They may very well win a round in the playoffs, but they're not quite ready to move into the conference's upper crust yet.

Prediction: 47-35, 3rd in Atlantic Division, T-5th in Eastern Conference
Source - Click here
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Old 09-30-2008, 04:06 PM   #3 (permalink)
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9 minutes ahead of ya Doc....
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Old 09-30-2008, 04:07 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SnoochieBoochie View Post
9 minutes ahead of ya Doc....
Yet you both spelled forecast wrong.
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Old 09-30-2008, 04:15 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Thug View Post
Yet you both spelled forecast wrong.
I dont need no stinking spell check.
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Old 09-30-2008, 04:17 PM   #6 (permalink)
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So he gives Bargnani good odds at having a good season, but Kapono is a write-off? He's dumb. Overall his assessment is reasonable, but weighted heavily on negatives like being injury prone. And the funny thing is that he's going to end up ranking them something like third in the league, a few weeks in, based on his funny numbers.
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Old 09-30-2008, 04:46 PM   #7 (permalink)
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I don't like the position he ranked the Raps in the conference and the win total.
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Old 09-30-2008, 05:12 PM   #8 (permalink)
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i'm no huge hollinger fan, but this seems pretty reasonable to me. what lx says is right, the kapono write off is silly and they may not be as injury prone as he suggests, but in the end i think the prediction is pretty good, and he gives credit where credit is due for jo to have a huge impact and give Bosh the room he needs to excel. he's also quite right about the backcourt depth.

all in all a pretty good preview, imo.
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Old 09-30-2008, 05:20 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Hes pretty much bang on for once. BOS/DET/CLE have the top 3 spots locked up IMO, homecourt for the 4th spot will be be between us and ORL(and likely PHI if they get their shit together early)unless CLE starts coasting mid season which theyve been known to do. I think 47 wins is very realistic.
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Old 09-30-2008, 07:38 PM   #10 (permalink)
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usually we get a few more wins than Hollinger predicts, so I'd say he's prediction is quite accurate. While we could (under the right circumstances) get something like 55 wins or more, it's more realistic to predict ~50. I think he's too high on Detroit though, Curry is a rookie coach trying to keep under control rasheed - that's going to be tough.
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Old 09-30-2008, 10:26 PM   #11 (permalink)
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It will be very very interesting to see what Curry can do with Detroit...
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