Hollinger's Power rankings: Raptors 18th..?
Old 02-21-2010, 03:08 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Hollinger's Power rankings: Raptors 18th..?

WTF? We're dropping like a stone.

(2009-2010 Hollinger Power Rankings - ESPN).

Teams ahead of us:

Bucks
Heat
Bulls
Charlotte
Houston

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Old 02-21-2010, 03:14 PM   #2 (permalink)
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I dont know where these rankings come from, but I have to wonder how we are below teams like Bobcats. We are 7 games over .500, they sit at .500. We have record of 8-2 from last ten and they are sporting 5-5. If this is based on whole season, we have better record. If its based on recent games, we have better record. Whatever the stats he is using are, they dont accurately describe the power rankings of teams.
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Old 02-21-2010, 03:21 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by jeffb View Post
WTF? We're dropping like a stone.

(2009-2010 Hollinger Power Rankings - ESPN).

Teams ahead of us:

Bucks
Heat
Bulls
Charlotte
Houston
Nuts! or is it Ball!
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Old 02-21-2010, 03:30 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Rudy-T View Post
I dont know where these rankings come from,
John Hollinger

Cavs are 4th

nuff said
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Old 02-21-2010, 03:41 PM   #5 (permalink)
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prolly because we keep raping teams like NJ and Wizards and havn't won against a decent team lately...I dont know
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Old 02-21-2010, 03:45 PM   #6 (permalink)
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those rating are all based on some complicated equation including SOS, scoring margins and opponent win %
not the traditional power rankings
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Old 02-21-2010, 03:46 PM   #7 (permalink)
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What windex said, and our defense has been close to early season form in the past handful of games which can't help.
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Old 02-21-2010, 03:54 PM   #8 (permalink)
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well now thats just fucked up
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Old 02-21-2010, 03:57 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Stein's power rankings put us at 10th, Cav's 1st and Boston 12th.
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Old 02-21-2010, 04:51 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by lonewolfpoet View Post
Stein's power rankings put us at 10th, Cav's 1st and Boston 12th.
now thats what im talkin about
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Old 02-21-2010, 04:56 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Hollinger's rankings are purely statistics based. See the rating called "RAT" (overall rating)? That's our overall team score based on some complicated formula. It puts us at 18th in the league.

It's a very flawed system. It's supposed to show how "good" a team is by giving more points to teams for beating good teams, so for example, Miami is ranked 8th overall because they have beaten some good teams, even though they have a meager 29-28 record.
--

I place some faith in Hollinger's "PER" (player efficiency rating) because it's an overall ranking of a player's efficiency that takes things like FG% into account. His power rankings - not so much. I like Mark Swine's weekly Power Rankings better.
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Old 02-21-2010, 05:15 PM   #12 (permalink)
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I think the power rankings have a very solid foundation. they are not perfect, but on the other hand, all the teams ahead of us have been more impressive lately (last 15 games or so). His power rankings weigh recent performance very heavily and put a lot of emphasis on margin of wins.

The fact that we can't put teams away really hurt us in these rankings, and deservedly so. Good teams don't allow the opponents to come back from 15-20 down every game. We could have won against philly by 30, instead we allowed them to cut down the lead to 0 before we finally pushed them away. Chicago pushed their lead to 30 and now sit ahead of us.

That being said, the difference between us and Miami is very small, and a few wins against good teams next week and we'd be back in the top 12.
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Old 02-21-2010, 05:30 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by BballWatcher View Post
It's a very flawed system. It's supposed to show how "good" a team is by giving more points to teams for beating good teams, so for example, Miami is ranked 8th overall because they have beaten some good teams, even though they have a meager 29-28 record.
um ... so in your opinion a system that reward teams for performing well againt the good teams is very flawed? Not sure I undestand where you're coming from here.

The last 6 games, Miami beat Houston by 33, Philadelphia by 27 on the road, Atlanta by 20 on the road, and without wade they won in NJ and Memphis, and lost in the final seconds in Dallas. That's a lot more impressive that what we did.

If you want a ranking system that weighs wins and losses heavily, just look at the standings ... The Power Rankings are designed to look past the wins, and isolate the teams who are playing at a very high level. They are, in fact, predictors of the future. Power rankings don't tell you what a team has done so far (the standings do that), but they're trying to predict what they'll do in the future.

And the predictions are not stellar. We have struggled against bad teams lately, and we're about to face a much tougher schedule. The rankings think we won't do great. I actually concur, unless something happens and we start playing better, we won't have a great record during the next 3-4 weeks. I really hope I'm wrong, but I'm not very optimistic now.
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Old 02-21-2010, 05:31 PM   #14 (permalink)
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I think the power rankings have a very solid foundation. they are not perfect, but on the other hand, all the teams ahead of us have been more impressive lately (last 15 games or so). His power rankings weigh recent performance very heavily and put a lot of emphasis on margin of wins.

The fact that we can't put teams away really hurt us in these rankings, and deservedly so. Good teams don't allow the opponents to come back from 15-20 down every game. We could have won against philly by 30, instead we allowed them to cut down the lead to 0 before we finally pushed them away. Chicago pushed their lead to 30 and now sit ahead of us.

That being said, the difference between us and Miami is very small, and a few wins against good teams next week and we'd be back in the top 12.
Your logic is flawed. Because we can't pad the stats at the end of games we're not as high as we could be? We're 12-4 in the last 16 games. That's better than most of the next 10 teams or so above us. But we have played shitty teams, and that does factor into Hollinger's rankings.

I don't buy the "we let teams come back so we aren't so hot" argument either. We do let teams come back, and that is shitty, but we've also won 10 of our last 12 games, so it's not like we're blowing games.

I do feel that we're middle of the pack right now, and I honestly couldn't care where we place on Hollinger's rankings -- wins and L's are ultimately what counts. If we beat teams by wearing them out and not playing D until the 4th quarter then that's a flawed system but hey, it seems to be working for us lately!
-------

Ultimately Hollinger's rankings are too skewed by blowout victories, which is why they don't align THAT well to the standings. A couple years ago we were consistenly top 12 or so in the Hollinger rankings (the 41-41 season) because lost a bunch of close ones and absolutely raped a few teams that year (we beat Miami 96-54, Milwaukee 106-75, Washington 122-93, New jersey 106-69, etc.) . We weren't that great of a team, and Orlando handed our asses to us in the playoffs.

This year, I feel we're considerably better than that team, despite being lower in the Hollinger rankings. We take care of business against shitty teams and don't burn ourselves out running up the score against the bad teams.

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Old 02-21-2010, 05:50 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Look at the margin of victory over the last 25 games.

We're much better than Portland - Dallas - SA - Atlanta and Boston
A little bit better than Denver and just a bit worse than Milwaukee and Phoenix.

These things are useless, and even worse - pointless.
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Old 02-21-2010, 06:41 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Ultimately Hollinger's rankings are too skewed by blowout victories, which is why they don't align THAT well to the standings. .
that's pretty much my only big issue with it, I wish he'd put some kind of limiter. If you win by 20 or by 30, it's not much of a difference, some times teams quit after they're down big, sometime they keep fighting. But beyond that, it's a pretty good formula imo. Most of the time, teams that ranked higher in there (over their position in the standings), are actually playing very well.

As I said, I don't have an issue with any of the teams before us, they are all playing better than us right now. Chicago is really impressive since rose is back healthy, same for miami and charlotte. Take Charlotte's loss to NJN, and they had some huge games lately, beating the cavs by 20, phoenix by 30, almost winning in Los Angeles.

Usually, the thing most people have an issue in regards to the formula, is his assesment that winning a ton of close games (1-3 points) is just luck, and has nothing to do with skill. And he has the stats behind him, over the past many seasons, better teams don't do better in close games. Stats like this over 10-20 seasons are basically unrefutable - so this is not a real argument.

As far as I'm concerned, this formula is the best predictor of future play I ever saw, despite its flaws. Of course, it's not a crystal ball, for one it doesn't account for injuries and players recovering from injuries, and it might rely too much on the absolulte margin of victory. But all in all, it's one of the best statistical tools in basketball imo.

We have played the easiest schedule in basketball over the past 10 games (hugely easier compared to the teams ahead of us), and we failed to dominate it. Is that a sign of weakness (as the formula interprets it), or we just played down to the opposition? That's the real question, which will be answered over the next 2 weeks.

Over the next 19 games, it's going to get really tough. I predict a record of 7-12. If we only win 7 or less games before the end of march, we will start april at 38-36, most likely in the 8th or 9th spot in the conference. And we'd probably still be in 18th-20th in the rankings, because the opposition would have been much tougher. If the rankings are not accurate, we will win 10 or more games, and finish the month 41-33, and we will be in the 10th-12th spot in the rankings. Win 14 games and we'd be in the 3rd or 4th spot. But look at the schedule, B2Bs and all, and tell me you see more than 7 wins for us.
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Old 02-21-2010, 06:47 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Hollinger is anti canadian I swear what a biased rankings system he is a complete douche bag
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Old 02-21-2010, 07:07 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Hollinger is anti canadian I swear what a biased rankings system he is a complete douche bag
He might be, but the same formula had us 4th a couple of years ago, right before Bosh got hurt in the spring. We were lik now, 7 or 8 games over .500, but we were blowing teams away by 30 and 40 points .

The system might be flawed, but it's not anti Canadian ...
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Old 02-21-2010, 08:33 PM   #19 (permalink)
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As I said, I don't have an issue with any of the teams before us, they are all playing better than us right now. Chicago is really impressive since rose is back healthy, same for miami and charlotte. Take Charlotte's loss to NJN, and they had some huge games lately, beating the cavs by 20, phoenix by 30, almost winning in Los Angeles.
I think you're selling us short. Yes Miami and Chicago and Charlotte are playing well but so are we!!

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We have played the easiest schedule in basketball over the past 10 games (hugely easier compared to the teams ahead of us), and we failed to dominate it. Is that a sign of weakness (as the formula interprets it), or we just played down to the opposition? That's the real question, which will be answered over the next 2 weeks.
We're 12-4 in our last 10. That's 75% win percentage. What qualifies as "dominating" in your book?

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Over the next 19 games, it's going to get really tough. I predict a record of 7-12. If we only win 7 or less games before the end of march, we will start april at 38-36, most likely in the 8th or 9th spot in the conference. And we'd probably still be in 18th-20th in the rankings, because the opposition would have been much tougher. If the rankings are not accurate, we will win 10 or more games, and finish the month 41-33, and we will be in the 10th-12th spot in the rankings. Win 14 games and we'd be in the 3rd or 4th spot. But look at the schedule, B2Bs and all, and tell me you see more than 7 wins for us.
The next 20 games will obviously make our break our season, settle our playoff positon, etc. You really think we're going to finish 8th or 9th? Have you looked at the teams that our rivals have dominated lately?

Chicago has beaten the knicks (twice), miami, minnesota, philly and indiana. Hardly world beaters.


Miami lost 5 straight before beating memphis, jersey, philly atlanta and houston.

And Charlotte is probably the most combustible team in the league right now - they've beaten Cleveland twice and lost to the Nets twice.

We have a good team here with our current roster. Most teams cannot mach up with out front court. I can't see us falling down below 6th seed. Boston just lost again tonight. I see us finishing 5 or 6 in the East.
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Old 02-21-2010, 09:33 PM   #20 (permalink)
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We haven't had such an extremely easy schedule. There have been lots of back to backs and 3 games in four nights.

Guess what - the standings pretty much tell the story. There's no justifiable reason to suggest that the teams below us in the standings, including Milwaukee, are better than us at this point. It could turn out that way down the stretch, but they'll actually have to play the games to figure that out.

It's BS mathematical mumbo jumbo. And nobody has explained what the point of it is yet.
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