Hollinger: Raptors A Long Shot To Make The Playoffs
Old 02-17-2009, 12:20 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Hollinger: Raptors A Long Shot To Make The Playoffs



Quote:
Originally Posted by John Hollinger
A number of Raptor readers, noting that their team is only five games out of a playoff spot, questioned why I said Colangelo was essentially waving the white flag in making the Marion trade. (Emotions might be running a little high right now: Anytime I note that Bosh might leave in 2010, I get several e-mails asking why I hate Canada.)

Here's why it doesn't work: The math on their making up those five games is extremely difficult because it involves passing so many other teams in such a short amount of time.

The Raps trail by five with only 27 games left, and they have to climb over six teams to get up to the No. 8 spot. So even if Toronto were to heat up and go, say, 17-10 the rest of the way (and it's a huge leap from .382 to .630), there's no guarantee that would move them over Indiana and Charlotte and New York and Chicago and New jersey and Milwaukee. If just one of those six teams also outpaces expectations, the Raptors are boxed out.

That's why Toronto's Playoff Odds are only 11.4 percent this morning even though the Raps' remaining schedule is somewhat favorable -- they have to get through a ton of traffic to reach their destination.
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Old 02-17-2009, 12:21 PM   #2 (permalink)
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hollinger a long shot to understand any information that isn't statistical in nature.
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Old 02-17-2009, 12:22 PM   #3 (permalink)
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How does he have a job with ESPN?
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Old 02-17-2009, 12:26 PM   #4 (permalink)
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He's right.

WTF.

They are 5 games out with 27 to go.

Odds are they won't do it.

But it's not impossible.
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Old 02-17-2009, 12:28 PM   #5 (permalink)
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He's mostly right about all the teams ahead of us. I thought it was dumb because it was so obvious.
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Old 02-17-2009, 12:33 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Get to 500 and they'll get in. Simple as that, and definitely doable. All they need is a good winning streak and to avoid the 3+ game losing streaks and they'll be right in the thick of things again.
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Old 02-17-2009, 12:34 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Superjudge View Post
He's right.

WTF.

They are 5 games out with 27 to go.

Odds are they won't do it.

But it's not impossible.
Exactly... He's bang on with this one.
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Old 02-17-2009, 12:36 PM   #8 (permalink)
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lol how can anybody act like what he is saying isnt true, it's all stats in this case, the odds are the odds, it's very unlikely.
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Old 02-17-2009, 12:49 PM   #9 (permalink)
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My comment is more in the vain that I simply dislike Hollinger and all that he represents with PER crap and all the other fun stuff.
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Old 02-17-2009, 02:34 PM   #10 (permalink)
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hollinger is ***.. doesn't he know were tanking this season pshh ..

Last edited by fancylad; 02-17-2009 at 03:05 PM.
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Old 02-17-2009, 04:54 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I could say we have a legit chance at making the playoffs. Does that mean ESPN will sign me up for an analyst role
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Old 02-17-2009, 10:32 PM   #12 (permalink)
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There is only 1.5 games seperating Toronto from NY, Charlotte and Indiana (0.5). I think we have a very realistic shot at overtaking those teams. If NJ trades VC I expect them to slide dramatically in the standings. That leaves Chicago and Milwaukee and of the three I think Toronto has the more favourable schedule. It will be difficult, but doable. I think we have a better chance than 11.4%. Where did he get that number from by the way?

Our two remaining games against Chicago could be huge.
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Old 02-18-2009, 12:24 AM   #13 (permalink)
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I don't know man, we're behind the likes of Charolette, Indiana, Knicks... well, lets just say we're better than Washington atleast.

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Old 02-18-2009, 12:32 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Knight View Post
I don't know man, we're behind the likes of Charolette, Indiana, Knicks... well, lets just say we're better than Washington atleast.

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Yeah, I know; if you read my post you will realize I stated that.
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Old 02-18-2009, 12:35 AM   #15 (permalink)
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I do not have enough time to read long post'
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Old 02-18-2009, 12:49 AM   #16 (permalink)
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the problem is we have to win 5 more games than 6 teams that are ahead of us. Even if we're going 20 and 7, if one of those 6 teams goes 16 and 11, we're in 9th place.

if we go 18 and 11, we're basically praying that all the other 6 teams go .500 or below the rest of the way, which is impossible.

So we can only lose between 7 and 9 games, depending on the other teams in order to make it. We can probably squeeze in if we go 19 and 8, almost guaranteed to make it if we go 20 and 7.

Looking at the schedule, the following games are almost guaranteed losses:
1. against the Cavs
2. at Phoenix
3. at Dallas
4. at Houston
5. vs Utah (probably with their whole team by then)
6. at Orlando

If we lose these 6 games, we must not lose more than 2 or 3 from the following group:

4 x NY
2 x Chicago
2 x Philadelphia
Detroit
Atlanta
Miami
Milwaukkee
Indiana

in all these 13 games we're probably around 50/50 on average to win. And we have to win 10 ore more of these.

So yeah, 11% is pretty realistic, and unless we go on a tear, we're not winning more than 35 games this season.
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Old 02-18-2009, 02:38 AM   #17 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by •LX• View Post
He's mostly right about all the teams ahead of us. I thought it was dumb because it was so obvious.
Unfortunately it's not obvious to most Raptors fans. Most of them think we can make the playoffs still. His 11% chance is about right.
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Old 02-18-2009, 08:36 AM   #18 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moremilk View Post
if we go 18 and 11, we're basically praying that all the other 6 teams go .500 or below the rest of the way, which is impossible.
.

Those 6 teams have all gone .500 and lower so far this season. And even if three or four of them go 2 or 3 games over 500, the Raps can still get in with a 500 record.

Too much over-analysis. The only thing we know for sure is that they still have a chance.

That 11% statistic is useless.
How about this.
If they play average to poor basketball, their is 0% chance they will make the playoffs.
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Old 02-18-2009, 08:38 AM   #19 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RapMan99 View Post
Unfortunately it's not obvious to most Raptors fans. Most of them think we can make the playoffs still. His 11% chance is about right.
So his 11% chance is about right, we can still make the playoffs.
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Old 02-18-2009, 02:34 PM   #20 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bjjs View Post
Those 6 teams have all gone .500 and lower so far this season.
so did the Raptors ... we have to dramatically improve our record, and hope none of the other 6 teams improve it even slightly. Not impossible, but very unlikely. Especially if Bosh keeps missing games.
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