Hollinger: East playoff race
Old 02-25-2010, 09:53 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Hollinger: East playoff race

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With a four-game lead and an 18-8 mark in their past 26 games, you might think the Raptors are home free. Not so fast.

The Power Rankings see the Raptors as the weakest of the five teams, placing them 17th, and there are some good reasons for that. Toronto still has a negative scoring margin on the season despite standing six games above .500, and the Raptors' recent 10-3 stretch came with 10 of the games at home and against what was the league's easiest schedule in that stretch.

Now the schedule turns on Toronto in a big way. Toronto still has a West Coast trip to make, plus road dates against Cleveland and Oklahoma City; the home slate includes Cleveland, Atlanta, Utah, Denver, Oklahoma City and Boston. With Chris Bosh nursing an ankle injury, the timing couldn't be worse.

The Raptors do have 10 games left against non-contenders, and if they take care of business, they should slide in. On tiebreakers, the outlook is mixed: They win against Chicago, but lose to Milwaukee.

LINK - ESPN Insider
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Old 02-25-2010, 10:00 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Lose to the Bucks???

Laughable....I mean, it could happen, but I wouldn't bet on it.

And in my opinion, power rankings don't mean much.
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Old 02-25-2010, 10:17 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Lose to the Bucks???

Laughable....I mean, it could happen, but I wouldn't bet on it.

And in my opinion, power rankings don't mean much.
They said the tiebreaker went to the Bucks, which it has - they're up 2 games to 1 on us in the series.
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Old 02-25-2010, 10:45 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Hollinger's own playoff odds have Toronto with better chances than all but Miami. Yeah - Miami - because they are burning up the league. Nonsense times nonsense divided by stupidity.
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Old 02-25-2010, 11:37 PM   #5 (permalink)
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miami is the obvious favourite right now to get the 5th spot. Once wade is back, their schedule is ridiculously easy, and probably will finish with at least 18 more wins in their final games. That would put them at about 47 wins. Plus, you know wade is going to step up his game when it gets interesting, after semi-coasting so far.

I think missing the playoffs is a serious possibility for us - if Bosh misses 2 more weeks or so, it's almost a certainty. Among the 5 teams fighting for the four spots, we and charlotte are playing the worse basketball right now.

Don't forget that even before Bosh got injured, we struggled a lot with the worst teams in the league (sacramento, NJ). If this team doesn't get its act together, it could turn out ugly in a hurry. Charlotte was tied with us 2-3 weeks ago, and now they're out of the playoffs, as it stands.

Even if we'd play our best, a quick look through the schedule shows we have:
26 games left and 13 near-certain losses (cleveland, @OKC, @Houston, @LA, @Portland on a b2b, vs Atlanta, vs OKC, vs Utah, vs Denver, @Charlotte on a b2b, @Cleveland, vs Boston on a B2B and @Atlanta).
At best, we will win 3 games out of these 13 - but we could easily go 0-13.

Of the remaining 13 games, in the following 3 we will be slight underdogs:
@sacramento on a b2b
@miami
vs GSW on a b2b
Let's be generous and assume a 2-1 record in these games.

The other 10 games are winnable, but almost none is really easy:
Knicks, Philly, @GSW, @NJN on a b2b, @Minesotta, Clippers, @Philly, Chicago, @Detroit and the Knicks again.
We will probably win between 6 and 8 of these.

0 to 3 wins +
1 to 2 wins +
6 to 8 wins
---------
7 to 13 wins out of 26 remaining games. And that's assuming Bosh comes back soon and plays like he did before the injury.

So worst to best, we should finish with 38 to 44 wins. I think it will take 41 wins this season to qualify in the east, so we will have to fight for that playoff spot. Hollinger's odds might be 80%, but I wouldn't bet on us at that level. I think it's much close to 60% that we make it. If Bosh misses two more weeks, those odds drop to 30% or even less.
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Old 02-26-2010, 04:43 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by •LX• View Post
Hollinger's own playoff odds have Toronto with better chances than all but Miami. Yeah - Miami - because they are burning up the league. Nonsense times nonsense divided by stupidity.
exactly...
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:35 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by •LX• View Post
Hollinger's own playoff odds have Toronto with better chances than all but Miami. Yeah - Miami - because they are burning up the league. Nonsense times nonsense divided by stupidity.
right on

Who'd have predicted that Miami would beat the Lakers and Atlanta and creep within one game of the 5th spot? Hey, I know - Hollinger's math formula ... Maybe math is not an useless, nonsensical thing after all.
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:40 PM   #8 (permalink)
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We go 11-9 the rest of the way we're in, anything less then that we're asking for trouble.
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Old 03-08-2010, 06:54 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Raps may have won a few without Bosh but still where in big trouble here

where going back to our old defensive ways, plus the fact that the chemistry is all off because where working in Reggie Evans

plus the fact that lets face it, Demar Derozen's game has gone down the drain, where geting burned by him, hes lost out on hte court, and where forced to start him for his development which is finally catching up to us

Triano has to make a choice or Demar needs to give us what he gave before his ankle injury to start earning playing minutes
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Old 03-08-2010, 07:18 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by rapsmannn View Post
Raps may have won a few without Bosh but still where in big trouble here

where going back to our old defensive ways, plus the fact that the chemistry is all off because where working in Reggie Evans

plus the fact that lets face it, Demar Derozen's game has gone down the drain, where geting burned by him, hes lost out on hte court, and where forced to start him for his development which is finally catching up to us

Triano has to make a choice or Demar needs to give us what he gave before his ankle injury to start earning playing minutes
the problem is traino or the coaching staff doesn't define roles properly, stop fitting reggie evans in if he can't fit it he needs to be on the bench cause he is taking away from amir johnson. Andrea needs to defend better and the Raptors need to reamp their defensive motivation
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