Has DD peaked and trade him? - Page 5
Old 02-07-2014, 04:48 PM   #81 (permalink)
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Says the guy who thinks Lowry committed an offensive foul at the end of the Sacramento game...

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Old 02-07-2014, 05:19 PM   #82 (permalink)
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I wasn't even talking about talent-wise, just trade value wise. The gap between a top 5 pick and Demar is immense. So immense, that even if you think the pick doesn't offer a more talented player than DeMar, you would be nuts not to take it in hopes that you could use the greater asset, which is the pick, to get an even better player than Demar. Young players are a hot commodity. A lot of young guys come into the league and produce right away, they have potential, rookie contracts, just a great asset.

Asset maximization has been preached time and time again. Dealing Demar for a pick in that range would be doing exactly that.
You think a team is going to give up a guy (an established all-star who's "better than DD") for a top 5 pick who may or may not pan out?

It may sound great but in reality no GM is THAT crazy.

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Because I see skills and potential in players that exceed those of players on this team, I'm buying into hype?
I find it hilarious you think I'm backing these players just so I can say I told you so next year. I'm backing them because I believe they will be good and since I want this team to be good, we should go after them. If they do pan out and this team is stuck hovering around .500, should I not feel frustration that we could have got one of them?
What's this team's record post-Gay? Is it not a good team right now? Are you really expecting us to take some sort of quantum leap into title contention if we replace DD with a top 5 draft pick?

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Originally Posted by KoolAid View Post
I like Demar, but him wanting to be here doesn't mean shit. For all you know, he wants to be here because he has a nice paycheck and a few years left on his contract. Hell, even if he genuinely likes it here, a GM's not going to turn down a better player to keep him because he likes it here. Like it or not that's how the NBA works.
Contrary to the belief of some, real life =/= NBA2K14. Look at the Cavs and the Knicks. 2 franchises that are in shambles (in spite of some decent talent) because players aren't happy and don't want to be there. Hell, look at the Raps before that Gay trade. What goes on in the locker room matters.

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Originally Posted by moremilk View Post

As for his all star selection, we all know Demar is a fake all star, like it happens every once in a while when injuries and teams having too many wins for coaches to ignore get a bonus. On merit, lowry should have been an all star this season, not demar ... Or if we were in the west. His main claim to fame is that we play in a shitty conference with lots of injured bona fide all stars (horford, rose, rondo, lopez) and that coaches either don't like lowry, or they're blind. I'm very happy for him because he's a nice guy and a hard worker, but let's not kid ourselves, he does not belong in the same conversation with most of the other guys going to NO.
I think you have DD confused with Joe Johnson.
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Old 02-07-2014, 07:34 PM   #83 (permalink)
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I thought the argument was whether it made sense to trade DeMar with his value possibly peaking? Why does it need to become some kind of abstract craziness? It's not a video game. DeMar likely has not peaked, and there is a great amount of growth with his team. The picks will require their own development before any real value is recognized. If you need to make everything random to get your point across, then i think it supports my point, which is not a lot of good teams are going to conceive of themselves as random value maximizers. Circumstances, growth, and an over-arching vision do have meaning in this league, as much as the conventional wisdom that some of you are tossing around might work in some abstract sense.
it wasn't, I was replying specifically to koolaid's comments about intrinsic value:

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wasn't even talking about talent-wise, just trade value wise. The gap between a top 5 pick and Demar is immense. So immense, that even if you think the pick doesn't offer a more talented player than DeMar, you would be nuts not to take it in hopes that you could use the greater asset, which is the pick, to get an even better player than Demar.
subjective value is pointless, you get a GM like bjjs, he probably wouldn't trade demar for chris paul because derozan score 6 more points a game. Or somebody like larry brown who thinks all young players are worthless. That's also why I'm resorting to examples like afflalo, trying to bring more objectivity in the conversation.
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Old 02-07-2014, 07:39 PM   #84 (permalink)
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Actually, a lot of the injured players are included on the list. Role players who get 10 to 15 minutes a game are also on the list, which skews their numbers, especially if they're playing in garbage time. For instance, do you really believe that Nick Calathes of Memphis is the best passing SG in the game? He has the highest assist rate, but he's playing only 14 minutes a game and he's been a DNP-CD for at least a dozen games.

Some PGs and SFs are also included on these lists, which further skews the list.

But why does DD's advanced stats show him high on the list? It might be that while he doesn't excel at any one particular skill, he's contributing in a lot of different ways and in all categories. Is it such a bad thing that DD is becoming a more complete player?
you are right, didn't check carefully, I counted 9 low-minutes players ahead of him and most of the injured guys still qualify apparently. So yes, he's more like 45th. But keep in mind, PER doesn't account for defense, which should reduce his value back into the 60s where he probably belongs, which is just a bit above average for a starter in this league.

Don't get me wrong, I appreciate demar and he is having a nice year. Given the condition of the east, he is almost deserving of that all star spot. Obviously, if rondo, rose, horford, deron or lopez were healthy, he wouldn't have a shot. And if he was playing in the west, he would be even farther down the list. Don't you agree?
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Old 02-07-2014, 07:45 PM   #85 (permalink)
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I guess the better question for you is how does somebody who is not above average in anything, become an all-star
not sure, maybe ask those who voted for Joe Johnson, antoine walker or jamaal magloire among others.
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Old 02-07-2014, 07:53 PM   #86 (permalink)
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think you may misunderstand the concept of circular reasoning ...
I think you may misunderstand the concept of why trading Dd for Rubio is insane.

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Originally Posted by moremilk View Post
demar's rankings against all shooting guards (adjusted for minutes played and pace where possible)

22nd in rebounds
42nd in assists
12th in turnovers
37th in shooting (TS%)
18th in steals
15th in blocks

he's also
5th in PER
2nd in VA
3rd in EWA

so he's doing below average in most stats, but somehow he's very good in advanced stats ... bit of a mistery.
Useage. Backups in front of him in stats. Players that are one dimensional because the are SGs. They play on different teams and a different percentage of team stats. Pace. FTAs. There are 66 players so not sure if you mean the mean or average but its not what you think it is. Its hardly a mystery. And its not 12th worst at turning it over. Maybe ESPN rigs advanced stats for DD, Wade, Harden, Dragic and Ginobli.

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Old 02-07-2014, 10:54 PM   #87 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by moremilk View Post
you are right, didn't check carefully, I counted 9 low-minutes players ahead of him and most of the injured guys still qualify apparently. So yes, he's more like 45th. But keep in mind, PER doesn't account for defense, which should reduce his value back into the 60s where he probably belongs, which is just a bit above average for a starter in this league.

Don't get me wrong, I appreciate demar and he is having a nice year. Given the condition of the east, he is almost deserving of that all star spot. Obviously, if rondo, rose, horford, deron or lopez were healthy, he wouldn't have a shot. And if he was playing in the west, he would be even farther down the list. Don't you agree?
First of all - defense? You are going to disqualify a guy playing huge minutes on a top 5 defensive team for his defense? Good lordie.

Second of all, stop with the what ifs. Reality is reality, it is not what you conceptualize. Injuries happen every year. In this case there is no certainty at all that Rondo proves to be an all star with a sub-par cast around him. Deron is healthy, and even if he had the whole season healthy, why would it be a given that he wpuld play at a level so much higher than the past few seasons? And if he did, then surely it would mean Joe Johnson would pay the price, not DeMar. If Rose was healthy he would likely be voted in, not Irving, so again no effect on the choice of DeMar. Horford being healthy impacts Milsap, both in terms of numbers and in terms of a choice of which player should represent Atlanta - no impact on the choice of DeMar. Lopez? That's just ridiculous.

I've seen you talk yourself into believing that OKC was really the ultimate victors while being beaten for the rings by the Heat. Please explain how the NBA works that way. Champions are champions. Losers are losers. Third in the east is third in the east. And an all star is an all star, which isn't a huge accomplishment, but it isn't nuthin' neither.
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Old 02-08-2014, 12:13 PM   #88 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by JoeyJoJo Shabbadu View Post
I think you may misunderstand the concept of why trading Dd for Rubio is insane.



Useage. Backups in front of him in stats. Players that are one dimensional because the are SGs. They play on different teams and a different percentage of team stats. Pace. FTAs. There are 66 players so not sure if you mean the mean or average but its not what you think it is. Its hardly a mystery. And its not 12th worst at turning it over. Maybe ESPN rigs advanced stats for DD, Wade, Harden, Dragic and Ginobli.
he's 12th best in turnovers. And yes, there are 66 players, but only 30 starters.

Demar is a player with average stats on an average team with above average advanced stats. If you and the 2-3 others that are posting here want to believe he's at the same level as the other all stars (most of them), go ahead - I'm not going to try to crush your dreams anymore

We are in a really great position, with a legit all star in demar, lowry who is clearly better, good prospects in JV (who is as good as drummond and davis) and Ross (who is clearly better than barnes) and Amir who really should have been an all star. We have a top 5 bench in the league.
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Old 02-08-2014, 12:20 PM   #89 (permalink)
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First of all - defense? You are going to disqualify a guy playing huge minutes on a top 5 defensive team for his defense? Good lordie.
you're right, demar is obviously an elite defender since he's part of a great defense, how silly of me to doubt that.

In honesty, after this conversation, I don't think I would trade demar for the #1 pick in the draft. After all, we have a legitimate all star and two-way player locked in for 4 years at a bargain price and the #1 pick can easily become another kwame brown. In fact, I wouldn't trade him even if I would be offered the 1st, 2nd and 3rd pick, because after all, what use would it be to have 3 Kwame Browns on this team. The draft is too much of a lottery to risk breaking up our core, even if we got 3 draft picks.
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Old 02-08-2014, 12:58 PM   #90 (permalink)
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Demar is a player with average stats on an average team with above average advanced stats. If you and the 2-3 others that are posting here want to believe he's at the same level as the other all stars (most of them), go ahead - I'm not going to try to crush your dreams anymore
I know you believe this is true... it is not.
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Old 02-08-2014, 01:29 PM   #91 (permalink)
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you're right, demar is obviously an elite defender since he's part of a great defense, how silly of me to doubt that.

In honesty, after this conversation, I don't think I would trade demar for the #1 pick in the draft. After all, we have a legitimate all star and two-way player locked in for 4 years at a bargain price and the #1 pick can easily become another kwame brown. In fact, I wouldn't trade him even if I would be offered the 1st, 2nd and 3rd pick, because after all, what use would it be to have 3 Kwame Browns on this team. The draft is too much of a lottery to risk breaking up our core, even if we got 3 draft picks.
Nowhere have I said a pick would not be likely to be equal to or better than DeMar. It's a matter of not having any idea if that likelihood is realized, how long that takes, just how much better he ends up being, and what it means to the rest of the team's development. It's just an unnecessary crapshoot, unless, as I said before, you know you will get the guy you want and need and have a really good handle on. I keep reading how DeMar has high value. Well, I would like to see that value turned into something as concrete as possible if it is going to be spent, rather than rationalized away in some conceptual vortex.
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Old 02-08-2014, 03:31 PM   #92 (permalink)
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Old 02-08-2014, 05:28 PM   #93 (permalink)
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Nowhere have I said a pick would not be likely to be equal to or better than DeMar. It's a matter of not having any idea if that likelihood is realized, how long that takes, just how much better he ends up being, and what it means to the rest of the team's development. It's just an unnecessary crapshoot, unless, as I said before, you know you will get the guy you want and need and have a really good handle on. I keep reading how DeMar has high value. Well, I would like to see that value turned into something as concrete as possible if it is going to be spent, rather than rationalized away in some conceptual vortex.
what you're saying then, is that having $50 in your pocket is better than being offered a chance to win $200 on a coin toss with the money being paid to you at a random time within the next 5 years
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Old 02-08-2014, 05:29 PM   #94 (permalink)
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moremilk

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thank you for your great insight, it really brings clarity into the debate.
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Old 02-08-2014, 05:37 PM   #95 (permalink)
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I know you believe this is true... it is not.
I'm confused how this is a matter of "belief", the stats are numbers, not philosophical concepts ... His stats are average, except for fts and ppg, but having high ppg on below average efficiency is generally considered a bad thing.

I'm not saying he IS an average player, he is above average. He has few weaknesses and has above average ability to generate offense for himself (and now for others). I don't dispute the fact he's a top 60 player in this league. A top 5 draft pick is worth more this year. If not, players of more or less equal value (like afflalo for example) would have been long traded.
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Old 02-08-2014, 06:07 PM   #96 (permalink)
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You think a team is going to give up a guy (an established all-star who's "better than DD") for a top 5 pick who may or may not pan out?

It may sound great but in reality no GM is THAT crazy.
I did say this, in case you missed it:
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Originally Posted by KoolAid
But none of that matters because no sane GM will trade a top 5 pick for a package with Demar as the best asset.
So, yeah. My issue is that some people in this thread would turn down DeMar for a top 5 pick straight up, which is ridiculous when taking into account trade value.
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What's this team's record post-Gay? Is it not a good team right now? Are you really expecting us to take some sort of quantum leap into title contention if we replace DD with a top 5 draft pick?
Weak competition, small sample size, etc. Many reasons not to buy into the hype that this team will be anywhere near this successful.

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Contrary to the belief of some, real life =/= NBA2K14. Look at the Cavs and the Knicks. 2 franchises that are in shambles (in spite of some decent talent) because players aren't happy and don't want to be there. Hell, look at the Raps before that Gay trade. What goes on in the locker room matters.
I believe 2k14 does account for team chemistry

But on a serious note, I think that those teams are suffering not because they're players don't want to be there, but rather because they are both poorly coached teams with personnel that don't mesh well together on the court and sometimes off. J.R. Smith probably loves New York, doesn't mean a damn thing to their front office and I'm sure they'd ship him if they got a great offer. Liking the city you live in =/= locker room happiness.

And I wanted to address this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by LX
First of all - defense? You are going to disqualify a guy playing huge minutes on a top 5 defensive team for his defense? Good lordie.
Charlotte is ranked 6th in defensive efficiency and 4th in Pts allowed this year. Al Jefferson starts for them and is a terrible defender. Is he suddenly not a bad defender because his team can succeed in spite of his defence?

I'm not saying DeMar is a terrible defender but don't use the team's numbers to prove an individual's abilities.

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Old 02-08-2014, 06:19 PM   #97 (permalink)
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Charlotte is ranked 6th in defensive efficiency and 4th in Pts allowed this year. Al Jefferson starts for them and is a terrible defender. Is he suddenly not a bad defender because his team can succeed in spite of his defence?

I'm not saying DeMar is a terrible defender but don't use the team's numbers to prove an individual's abilities.
Yup.

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Old 02-08-2014, 06:30 PM   #98 (permalink)
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Yup.
Yeah Boozer is probably the best example possible.
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Old 02-08-2014, 09:58 PM   #99 (permalink)
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what you're saying then, is that having $50 in your pocket is better than being offered a chance to win $200 on a coin toss with the money being paid to you at a random time within the next 5 years
To try and generate some value out of this post; the present value of a 50/50 chance at winning $200 at some random point of time in the next 5 years is worth $97 using the government of canada 3 year bond rate.

So if Demar was worth $97 today, Ujiri being risk neutral would be indifferent between keeping demar, or trading to get in the lotto.
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Old 02-08-2014, 10:08 PM   #100 (permalink)
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Demar is actually a pretty good defender, but on that end of the floor, he most definitely avoids getting in foul trouble. Just like Durant, just like Lebron. His team needs him in the game. And yet he's getting much better avoiding foul trouble and playing good defense. When was the last time a team really attacked him on that end of the court? And he's been generating a few turnovers a game for awhile now. There are definitely plays where his defense has me shaking my head and wanting more effort, but overall he is far from terrible.

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