Has DD peaked and trade him? - Page 4
Old 02-06-2014, 09:57 PM   #61 (permalink)
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But how are you so certain they're overhyped? For all the accusations I'm getting of using my crystal ball to guarantee they're all superstars (even though I haven't done that), you're doing the same thing by saying they won't.

The picks have a good chance to be in the 20s, so I don't value them highly, but a top 5 pick is more valuable than Demar. It is easily. If you disagree on that there's no reason to go on because we're not on different pages, but different books altogether. No GM, including Masai, would trade a top 5 pick for Demar. It's as simple as that. The value is so much higher that even if you prefer Demar to the pick for some reason, you have to take it based solely off of the principle of buying low and selling high, and try to flip it for a player better than Demar.
And the problem here (as LX has already pointed out) is that there's been no clear indication that any of the "top 5 players" could be better than Demar. You've bought into the hype and the hearsay. That's it. And you've also hedged your bets admirably since you haven't even committed yourself to a single player to back. You're backing ALL of them so that a year from now you can point to ANY rook on ANY team and say "See!! I told you we should have traded Demar for that pick and drafted him!!".

Downplay Demar all you want. The guy WANTS to be here and has worked his ass off to become an all-star. It's a shame that you're so quick to discount both of those things for a chance to grab a shiny new toy.
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Old 02-06-2014, 10:52 PM   #62 (permalink)
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And the problem here (as LX has already pointed out) is that there's been no clear indication that any of the "top 5 players" could be better than Demar.
I wasn't even talking about talent-wise, just trade value wise. The gap between a top 5 pick and Demar is immense. So immense, that even if you think the pick doesn't offer a more talented player than DeMar, you would be nuts not to take it in hopes that you could use the greater asset, which is the pick, to get an even better player than Demar. Young players are a hot commodity. A lot of young guys come into the league and produce right away, they have potential, rookie contracts, just a great asset.

Asset maximization has been preached time and time again. Dealing Demar for a pick in that range would be doing exactly that.

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You've bought into the hype and the hearsay. That's it. And you've also hedged your bets admirably since you haven't even committed yourself to a single player to back. You're backing ALL of them so that a year from now you can point to ANY rook on ANY team and say "See!! I told you we should have traded Demar for that pick and drafted him!!".
Because I see skills and potential in players that exceed those of players on this team, I'm buying into hype?
I find it hilarious you think I'm backing these players just so I can say I told you so next year. I'm backing them because I believe they will be good and since I want this team to be good, we should go after them. If they do pan out and this team is stuck hovering around .500, should I not feel frustration that we could have got one of them?

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Downplay Demar all you want. The guy WANTS to be here and has worked his ass off to become an all-star. It's a shame that you're so quick to discount both of those things for a chance to grab a shiny new toy.
I like Demar, but him wanting to be here doesn't mean shit. For all you know, he wants to be here because he has a nice paycheck and a few years left on his contract. Hell, even if he genuinely likes it here, a GM's not going to turn down a better player to keep him because he likes it here. Like it or not that's how the NBA works.
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Old 02-06-2014, 11:05 PM   #63 (permalink)
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demar's rankings against all shooting guards (adjusted for minutes played and pace where possible)

22nd in rebounds
42nd in assists
12th in turnovers
37th in shooting (TS%)
18th in steals
15th in blocks

he's also
5th in PER
2nd in VA
3rd in EWA

so he's doing below average in most stats, but somehow he's very good in advanced stats ... bit of a mistery.
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Old 02-06-2014, 11:10 PM   #64 (permalink)
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I wasn't even talking about talent-wise, just trade value wise. The gap between a top 5 pick and Demar is immense. So immense, that even if you think the pick doesn't offer a more talented player than DeMar, you would be nuts not to take it in hopes that you could use the greater asset, which is the pick, to get an even better player than Demar.
that

a guaranteed 5th pick in this draft is worth more than demar. That's a basic fact and should really be beyond argument. And it's not really close. Truth is, a 5th pick in almost any draft is worth more than demar. They are rarely traded though. We got lowry for an 8th pick in a draft forecasted to be shitty and some writers thought we made a mistake. We got offered harden (the OKC version, but still) for JV ( a 5th pick) before JV every played a game.

If your love for demar is clouding your judgement, think of it like this, if we had the 5th pick in the draft, would you trade it for afflalo? Would even think about it? How about this, would you trade our unprotected draft pick this year for afflalo?
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Old 02-06-2014, 11:14 PM   #65 (permalink)
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And the problem here (as LX has already pointed out) is that there's been no clear indication that any of the "top 5 players" could be better than Demar.
Look back every draft year you can remember (except the last one of course) and you will find 5 players that are worth more than demar. Our front office has a very strong draft record, so they should make a good choice.

So we are virtually certain there will be 5 players vastly superior to demar in this draft. The only uncertainty is whether Masai would be able to spot them.
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Old 02-06-2014, 11:22 PM   #66 (permalink)
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'virtually certain', vastly superior' 'the only uncertainty'....ok...
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Old 02-06-2014, 11:41 PM   #67 (permalink)
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From 2005 to 2009, 10/25 of the players select from 1st through 5th have made the nba all-star game.

12 other players drafted during this time (not including Demar) have made the all-star game.

22 total. So it's not 'virtually certain'. It's not even likely. It's actually unlikely. Now in a world where our GM is infallible, and the players drafted have no actual responsibility for their own performance, in otherwords, Ujiri would have drafted guys like Gasol and Millsap in the first 5 despite them being obvious second rounders at the time...even then, it's not virtually certain the pick would be "VASTLY SUPERIOR" because Demar is one of those 22. He's on their level.

You're logic is wackattack
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Old 02-07-2014, 12:47 AM   #68 (permalink)
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From 2005 to 2009, 10/25 of the players select from 1st through 5th have made the nba all-star game.

12 other players drafted during this time (not including Demar) have made the all-star game.

22 total. So it's not 'virtually certain'. It's not even likely. It's actually unlikely. Now in a world where our GM is infallible, and the players drafted have no actual responsibility for their own performance, in otherwords, Ujiri would have drafted guys like Gasol and Millsap in the first 5 despite them being obvious second rounders at the time...even then, it's not virtually certain the pick would be "VASTLY SUPERIOR" because Demar is one of those 22. He's on their level.

You're logic is wackattack
no, you are choosing to twist the question to avoid the obvious answer
who care about all star game, would you not trade demar for cousins? Or for Anthony Davis, Drummond, conley or bledsoe? Heck, even dragic probably has more value than demar, he's definitely having a better year. I suspect most GMs would also trade guys kawhi leonard for demar. Personally, I would absolutely trade demar for favours for example, or for pekovic and maybe even rubio. Assuming health is not held against them, guys like roy, oden or bogut would be worth more. Valanciunas, even with all the struggles, probably has far more value than Demar, and so does Amir.

Granted, some of these guys would not have been picked top 5, but tally up all players worth more in every draft year and it will be a rare draft indeed where you couldn't get at least 5.

As for his all star selection, we all know Demar is a fake all star, like it happens every once in a while when injuries and teams having too many wins for coaches to ignore get a bonus. On merit, lowry should have been an all star this season, not demar ... Or if we were in the west. His main claim to fame is that we play in a shitty conference with lots of injured bona fide all stars (horford, rose, rondo, lopez) and that coaches either don't like lowry, or they're blind. I'm very happy for him because he's a nice guy and a hard worker, but let's not kid ourselves, he does not belong in the same conversation with most of the other guys going to NO.
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Old 02-07-2014, 03:09 AM   #69 (permalink)
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As for his all star selection, we all know Demar is a fake all star,
This is probably the silliest thing I've heard or read about DeRozan.

He's the only player voted in or selected as an All Star this year who wasn't on the ESPN's Top 100 NBA players and TOP 25 NBA players under 25 lists. He's posting career best averages for PER (18),points(22), rebounds(4.5)and assists(4) per game. In his role(identified as being a scorer),he's the second best at his position in the league behind James Harden. Co-leading the Raptors to currently the 3rd best record in the East,having them on pace to make the playoffs for the time in over 5 years.

Through all this,you're saying he's a "fake All Star" LOL?!?

I understand you don't think he's anything special or whatever but be real and stop hating!
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Old 02-07-2014, 06:54 AM   #70 (permalink)
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I would not trade Afflalo if he fit well with a team that was experiencing excellent growth.

This idea constantly reminds me of passing your turns in scrabble trying to get the big bingo. Yes, it would be fantastic to have QUIZICA and have an L in the center square to play it on. But you can do so much more playing every turn, not exchanging tiles, and using your H's and W's and F's along with your R's and S's and D's to maximum effect, and in ways that take big score options away from your opponent.Moving forward with what you have, has to be done at some point. You can't always get stuck looking for all the right tiles to fall into your lap. Chances are when they finally do they no longer fit on the board.
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Old 02-07-2014, 12:18 PM   #71 (permalink)
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no, you are choosing to twist the question to avoid the obvious answer



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Originally Posted by moremilk View Post
Personally, I would absolutely trade demar for favours for example, or for pekovic and maybe even rubio.

Last edited by JoeyJoJo Shabbadu; 02-07-2014 at 12:23 PM.
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Old 02-07-2014, 12:37 PM   #72 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by moremilk View Post
demar's rankings against all shooting guards (adjusted for minutes played and pace where possible)

22nd in rebounds
42nd in assists
12th in turnovers
37th in shooting (TS%)
18th in steals
15th in blocks

he's also
5th in PER
2nd in VA
3rd in EWA

so he's doing below average in most stats, but somehow he's very good in advanced stats ... bit of a mistery.
Upon quick glance this is very puzzling.
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Old 02-07-2014, 01:18 PM   #73 (permalink)
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I would not trade Afflalo if he fit well with a team that was experiencing excellent growth.
growth has no place in this argument, since it's about maximizing value. I can rephrase the question, if you are a random team and have a chance of getting (for free) afllalo or a 5th pick in this draft, which one do you choose?
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Old 02-07-2014, 01:18 PM   #74 (permalink)
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think you may misunderstand the concept of circular reasoning ...
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Old 02-07-2014, 01:31 PM   #75 (permalink)
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This is probably the silliest thing I've heard or read about DeRozan.

He's the only player voted in or selected as an All Star this year who wasn't on the ESPN's Top 100 NBA players and TOP 25 NBA players under 25 lists. He's posting career best averages for PER (18),points(22), rebounds(4.5)and assists(4) per game. In his role(identified as being a scorer),he's the second best at his position in the league behind James Harden. Co-leading the Raptors to currently the 3rd best record in the East,having them on pace to make the playoffs for the time in over 5 years.

Through all this,you're saying he's a "fake All Star" LOL?!?

I understand you don't think he's anything special or whatever but be real and stop hating!
not being in the top 100 is a plus for a player, or that posting career bests in a few categories will also make quincy acy an all star, so not sure why you would bring that argument.

He is NOT the 2nd best scorer at his position, not unless your criteria is ppg ... Because that would make demar a much better scorer than tony parker for example (among many others).

We have the 12th best record in the league and 2 games removed from the 18th place in the league. We are, by definition, an average team. And he's not the co-leader, he may not even be the 2nd best player (he's 3rd in PER and clearly an inferior defender to both amir and lowry). His PER of 18 ranks 55th in the league (not counting all the injured stars - he's more like 70th that way). He has career bests in rebounds and assists, but still ranks only 22nd among shooting guards in rebounding rate:

Hollinger's NBA Player Stats - ESPN Insider - National Basketball Association - ESPN

and 42 in assists

Hollinger's NBA Player Stats - ESPN Insider - National Basketball Association - ESPN

Name one thing outside getting to the line where demar is above average ... Unless you think taking lots of shots is an elite skill
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Old 02-07-2014, 01:33 PM   #76 (permalink)
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Upon quick glance this is very puzzling.
he has very high usage and excellent FT numbers. He also plays a lot of minutes, which counts in some of the advanced stats, which is probably why his PER is lower.
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Old 02-07-2014, 01:35 PM   #77 (permalink)
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growth has no place in this argument, since it's about maximizing value. I can rephrase the question, if you are a random team and have a chance of getting (for free) afllalo or a 5th pick in this draft, which one do you choose?
I thought the argument was whether it made sense to trade DeMar with his value possibly peaking? Why does it need to become some kind of abstract craziness? It's not a video game. DeMar likely has not peaked, and there is a great amount of growth with his team. The picks will require their own development before any real value is recognized. If you need to make everything random to get your point across, then i think it supports my point, which is not a lot of good teams are going to conceive of themselves as random value maximizers. Circumstances, growth, and an over-arching vision do have meaning in this league, as much as the conventional wisdom that some of you are tossing around might work in some abstract sense.
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Old 02-07-2014, 02:10 PM   #78 (permalink)
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Name one thing outside getting to the line where demar is above average ... Unless you think taking lots of shots is an elite skill
You're just so incapable of looking at reality, I'm not sure quite how to respond. I guess the better question for you is how does somebody who is not above average in anything, become an all-star, and get the touches and shot attempts that Demar gets?
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Old 02-07-2014, 02:14 PM   #79 (permalink)
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You're just so incapable of looking at reality,
Says the guy who thinks Lowry committed an offensive foul at the end of the Sacramento game...

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Old 02-07-2014, 02:56 PM   #80 (permalink)
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not being in the top 100 is a plus for a player, or that posting career bests in a few categories will also make quincy acy an all star, so not sure why you would bring that argument.

He is NOT the 2nd best scorer at his position, not unless your criteria is ppg ... Because that would make demar a much better scorer than tony parker for example (among many others).

We have the 12th best record in the league and 2 games removed from the 18th place in the league. We are, by definition, an average team. And he's not the co-leader, he may not even be the 2nd best player (he's 3rd in PER and clearly an inferior defender to both amir and lowry). His PER of 18 ranks 55th in the league (not counting all the injured stars - he's more like 70th that way). He has career bests in rebounds and assists, but still ranks only 22nd among shooting guards in rebounding rate:

Hollinger's NBA Player Stats - ESPN Insider - National Basketball Association - ESPN

and 42 in assists

Hollinger's NBA Player Stats - ESPN Insider - National Basketball Association - ESPN

Name one thing outside getting to the line where demar is above average ... Unless you think taking lots of shots is an elite skill
Actually, a lot of the injured players are included on the list. Role players who get 10 to 15 minutes a game are also on the list, which skews their numbers, especially if they're playing in garbage time. For instance, do you really believe that Nick Calathes of Memphis is the best passing SG in the game? He has the highest assist rate, but he's playing only 14 minutes a game and he's been a DNP-CD for at least a dozen games.

Some PGs and SFs are also included on these lists, which further skews the list.

But why does DD's advanced stats show him high on the list? It might be that while he doesn't excel at any one particular skill, he's contributing in a lot of different ways and in all categories. Is it such a bad thing that DD is becoming a more complete player?
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