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-   -   Grantland: Raptors privately indicated they expected Gay to opt out in 2014 (http://www.raptorsforum.com/f/f5/grantland-raptors-privately-indicated-they-expected-gay-opt-out-2014-a-25649.html)

jeffb 07-24-2013 02:06 PM

Grantland: Raptors privately indicated they expected Gay to opt out in 2014
 
Quote:

This team could follow a number of different paths over the next two years or so, but they've found a ruthless negotiator in Masai Ujiri to guide them. Ujiri somehow dumped Andrea Bargnani on the Knicks in return for three draft picks and only one player on a guaranteed multiyear contract (Steve Novak), a move that at least creates the possibility of the Raps clearing max-level cap space as early as next summer.

They'd have to part with Rudy Gay to get there, and Gay has a $19.3 million player option for 2014-15. Gay is still in his prime, and when they traded for him the Raptors privately indicated they expected Gay to opt out and secure a longer-term deal. Kyle Lowry will also be a free agent next summer, putting Toronto in a unique position in which they could compete for a playoff spot this season and then bottom out in 2014-15.

Of course, this season is the best time in a decade to bottom out, and the Raps might be able to engineer that path with a few midseason trades. Everything's on the table, and the Bargnani trade was a nice start.
NBA offseason moves - assessing the winners, tankers, and everything in between - Grantland

jeffb 07-24-2013 02:21 PM

Quote:

A contract with an option can be extended if the player opts-in. A contract with an option can also be extended if the player opts-out, as long as the extension adds at least two new seasons onto the contract (excluding any new option year) and the salary in the first year of the extension is not less than the salary in the non-exercised option year.
NBA Salary Cap FAQ

Alex 07-24-2013 02:21 PM

Do they mean opt out to get a longer term deal with us? Like a 11-14 m a year maybe?


So reading that post above me, we can do a frontloafef contract? I doubt he'd want that

woodchuck 07-24-2013 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex (Post 810721)
Do they mean opt out to get a longer term deal with us? Like a 11-14 m a year maybe?


So reading that post above me, we can do a frontloafef contract? I doubt he'd want that

Zach Lowe is talking about a Kirilenko type opt out situation where Gay would enter free agency market and look for a new deal with the Raptors or with another team.

Of course, he might want an extension with the Raptors during the season. If it's big enough. The Raptors could basically offer him the same 19 mil in the first year and smaller numbers in later years. Nothing wrong with that structure if you are Rudy Gay. Why wouldn't you want more money now?

moremilk 07-24-2013 02:40 PM

BC was talking about extending Gay this summer if I'm not mistaken. The real question is for how much. And also, does it matter? Even if we swap his old contract for the new, we'll still be way over the cap space. Even if we lose Lowry for free and we'd still have no meangingful cap space (i.e. at least 7 million).

DanH 07-24-2013 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moremilk (Post 810726)
BC was talking about extending Gay this summer if I'm not mistaken. The real question is for how much. And also, does it matter? Even if we swap his old contract for the new, we'll still be way over the cap space. Even if we lose Lowry for free and we'd still have no meangingful cap space (i.e. at least 7 million).

Yeah, but renegotiating his contract down through an extension could pay dividends a couple years from now, when we are going to have to start paying the younger guys on our team, plus Lowry if he sticks around. Always good to have a little more room around the tax threshold, as the MLE is a much better tool to add talent than the taxpayer MLE.

DanH 07-24-2013 02:55 PM

Quote:

One good scenario is that if he does play well this year, he doesn't have to opt out to get a longer deal, so long as the Raps want to keep him. If he agrees to an extension, he can sign an extension of 4 years (this one counts, so effectively 3 years, including his player option year) where the first extension season is his current PO salary and the final two are whatever they negotiate. For example, he can keep his $19.3 M and also sign on for 12M per season for the following two seasons. That's effectively the same as a 14.5M per year deal for 3 years, in terms of overall pay. Raps would be pretty stuck next summer in terms of paying taxes, but if the team is playing well, maybe that's not a concern.
http://www.raptorsforum.com/f/f5/new...tml#post810323

KoolAid 07-24-2013 04:31 PM

I'm curious if this means we could lose him for nothing after this season...

woodchuck 07-24-2013 04:36 PM

Maybe. I could easily see him end up as a consolation prize for one of the teams that are dreaming about LeBron/Melo right now.

The Cavs can afford to make him an attractive offer and still keep Kyrie/Bynum/Waiters/Thompson/Bennett/Varejao.

BballWatcher 07-24-2013 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KoolAid (Post 810761)
I'm curious if this means we could lose him for nothing after this season...

Of course it does! Gay's option after this season is a player option, meaning he could choose to opt out if he wants. That's the advantage of player options - it puts the flexibility in their hands.

However, under the current CBA we'd be able to pay Gay more than other teams when offering a max contract. Still, given the current NBA economy and Gay's skillset, unless he improves tremendously this year I don't know how happy we'd be to pay him 15-18 million per year for several more years after this...

LET'S GO RAPTORS!!!!! 07-24-2013 04:43 PM

I think MU might trade him rather than lose him for nothing.

woodchuck 07-24-2013 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BballWatcher (Post 810763)
Of course it does! Gay's option after this season is a player option, meaning he could choose to opt out if he wants. That's the advantage of player options - it puts the flexibility in their hands.

However, under the current CBA we'd be able to pay Gay more than other teams when offering a max contract. Still, given the current NBA economy and Gay's skillset, unless he improves tremendously this year I don't know how happy we'd be to pay him 15-18 million per year for several more years after this...

That rule is practically irrelevant in this situation. If Rudy opts out, he'll be eligible for 4/80 mil from any team. The Raptors would be able to offer him close to 5 / 110 mil.

Basically, the max numbers are much bigger than 15-18 mil a year. Unless Rudy becomes Carmelo, the max is irrelevant.

The Raptors' advantage is the extra year that they can give, but it's a small advantage since other teams can just overpay him per year.

BballWatcher 07-24-2013 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by woodchuck (Post 810773)
That rule is practically irrelevant in this situation. If Rudy opts out, he'll be eligible for 4/80 mil from any team. The Raptors would be able to offer him close to 5 / 110 mil.

Basically, the max numbers are much bigger than 15-18 mil a year. Unless Rudy becomes Carmelo, the max is irrelevant.

The Raptors' advantage is the extra year that they can give, but it's a small advantage since other teams can just overpay him per year.

Ah, didn't realize teams could offer that much. The new CBA lets "max" players get paid wayyy more on the open market.

But yeah, even i said that we probably won't want to give Rudy such a fat contract; even 4/80 is way too much for him!

DanH 07-24-2013 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BballWatcher (Post 810780)
Ah, didn't realize teams could offer that much. The new CBA lets "max" players get paid wayyy more on the open market.

But yeah, even i said that we probably won't want to give Rudy such a fat contract; even 4/80 is way too much for him!

It's not the new CBA - it is because of his current starting salary. Since he is already making well over the max, the amount other teams can offer starts at 5% above his current salary instead of the basic max amount. With decreased raises and shorter contracts, players actually earn less on the open market.

carp 07-24-2013 05:28 PM

thankfully we can just trade Gay for Stuckey and Charlie V rather than let him walk next year

Tommy C 07-24-2013 05:31 PM

I don’t see him accepting an offer of 3-4 years 11-13M/year. Rudy will turn 27 next month, still young and productive. I can see him getting way more than this.
I still think they won’t take the chance and will trade him before the trade deadline, Lowry who is also expiring and possibly DD, if the right deal comes along. I don’t think it will be right to keep DD on a losing team and keep him unhappy here.

halphbreedballer 07-24-2013 06:54 PM

If only there was a way to split next years salary into 2 years worth? :(

moremilk 07-24-2013 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DanH (Post 810735)
Yeah, but renegotiating his contract down through an extension could pay dividends a couple years from now, when we are going to have to start paying the younger guys on our team, plus Lowry if he sticks around. Always good to have a little more room around the tax threshold, as the MLE is a much better tool to add talent than the taxpayer MLE.

not sure why you would say that, it would be better to just extend him the next season at market value, no?

Say he has 19M left and you want to give him 12M over 3Y, if he opts out, it comes to 55M over 4Y, or just under 14M in each of his last 3 years. If he signs a normal extension after next season, he will only get 12M per in each of his last 3, at a cost of a huge hit in 2013/14. So down the road we get more flexibility with a regular extension, no?

DanH 07-24-2013 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moremilk (Post 810832)
not sure why you would say that, it would be better to just extend him the next season at market value, no?

Say he has 19M left and you want to give him 12M over 3Y, if he opts out, it comes to 55M over 4Y, or just under 14M in each of his last 3 years. If he signs a normal extension after next season, he will only get 12M per in each of his last 3, at a cost of a huge hit in 2013/14. So down the road we get more flexibility with a regular extension, no?

But there's no way to do a regular extension. Either A) he gets a regular extension after opting out, and the first year salary has to be AT LEAST 19 M, and the following years have to follow the maximum raise rules or B) he gets a player option extension, and he gets 19 M next year for opting in and whatever we negotiate the years after, or C) he opts out and we sign him as a free agent. The risk with the free agency route is that there could be other bids. Plus he probably gets a 5 year deal, rather than effectively a 3 year one.

moremilk 07-25-2013 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DanH (Post 810835)
But there's no way to do a regular extension. Either A) he gets a regular extension after opting out, and the first year salary has to be AT LEAST 19 M, and the following years have to follow the maximum raise rules or B) he gets a player option extension, and he gets 19 M next year for opting in and whatever we negotiate the years after, or C) he opts out and we sign him as a free agent. The risk with the free agency route is that there could be other bids. Plus he probably gets a 5 year deal, rather than effectively a 3 year one.

I was actually thinking about option C, just didn't phrase it properly.

I was under the impression that what you originally were referring to is an option to get him to opt out and than we'd give him an extension starting at a lower value, but higher than what he would be worth, to compensate for the lost salary in his declined year (kind of like a stretched provision :)). If that was legal (looks like it's not), it would have been worse for us long term than just signing him as a FA (option C). The advantage in such a scenario would be that we pay a little more in his last 3 years, but much less in his first. Since this doesn't appear to be possible, it's moot.

Based on the options you outlined, obviously A is not worth discussing, and I'd probably still go for C over B, presumably we'd only be interested in signing him if the team goes well, in which case he would probably be willing to stay here. If a crazy team throws a higher than market salary, we could counteract with a 5th year, so as long as he wants to be here, the risk would be manageable. We would have to trust in masai doing his magic to get a reasonable salary in the last years of his contract.


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