Free Agent Signings? Long Shot.
Old 01-16-2009, 08:55 AM   #1 (permalink)
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For those who dont like looking at figures, plaease leave this thread, for those who do read on.

Alot of talk over the past few months of signing possible free agents either this summer(depending on if a JO for Marion type swap was done) or next summer And the numbers just dont really allow it.

First off I would like to state that teams over the cap teams cannot offer anything more than the Mid Level Exemption to free agents.

Second to calculate the potential cap(assuming that the reccession doesnt LOWER it) I took the salary cap from 2005-2006(49.5), 2006-2007(53.135), 2007-2008(55.63), 2008-2009(58.68) and calculated the average increase in cap over those years and applied it over the next two salary cap seasons and came up with 2009-2010 cap of 62.11 and a 2010-2011 of 65.73

Next is to calculate the possible salaries in both years.

2009 (assuming a trade of JO for Marion)(only way we'd have any capspace in 2009)
If a qualifying offer is made and accepted by Joey G the Raptors would have under contract---
Bosh
Jose
Joey G
Bargs
Kapono
Hump
Roko
Jawai
Salary committed-$45.2 million

Add to that our first and second round picks and that would add another 2.25 million bringing the total to $47.5 million, leaving the Raptors about $14.6 million under the cap with only 10 players signed. Not gonna bring in a great talent and still fill the roster with solid players. 1 player at about 10 million per, 1 player at about 3 million per and 1 player at about 1.5 million per. If deal was to go through, this would be the best situation for the Raps finacially and building toward the future.


2010
This gets a little tricky
The absolute best case senario for 2010 would be that any contracts signed(excluding draft picks) in 2009 that where used to fill out roster were only 1 year contracts, the situation for 2010 would be as follows.
If Bosh does not opt out.
Under contract players:
Bosh
Jose
Kapono
Bargs
Roko
Hump
2009 1st
2009 2nd
Total salary committed:
48.2 Million with only 8 players under contract.
That would leave only 17.5 million dollars to spend on a minimum of 5 players in order to fill out the roster. Considering a decent player on a great contract makes between 3 million and 4.5 million, 2 decent players out of 5 needed are gonna take up close to half of the cap space. Not gonna leave enough money to sign any sort of a star at all; unless 10-12 million is spent on 1 player and the rest of the team is filled with scrubs.(5-7 million on 4 players, minimum)

IF Bosh Opts out
Would leave the Raps with only 7 players under contract and about 34 million under the cap. Could offer 20-22 million to one of the big names and then try to fill out the other 5 roster spots for between 10 - 12 million.( not gonna be easy to say the least.)
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Old 01-16-2009, 10:00 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Snooch, I like your figures, but I these more.









BTW, the only way the raps are going to win a championship with Bosh is if they go over the tax threshold... or put these two out there in the post.
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Old 01-16-2009, 10:09 AM   #3 (permalink)
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great work snoooch, my brain is now very very sore can any of the open spots on the 2010 roster play the 3?
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Old 01-16-2009, 10:54 AM   #4 (permalink)
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not the strong off season numbers i was hoping for. Honestly, we want to any kind of contender we need to go over the lux tax threshold so we can get the better players and have the better bench. Im not saying we should be at 90 mill, im saying we need to break over it and be around 70-80 mill so we can have a stronger bench and a better starter.


ALthough i do remember BC saying that this offseason (if no one big is traded) we would have about 7-8 million to replace AP with a better swing man.
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Old 01-16-2009, 11:05 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by m5racer View Post
not the strong off season numbers i was hoping for. Honestly, we want to any kind of contender we need to go over the lux tax threshold so we can get the better players and have the better bench. Im not saying we should be at 90 mill, im saying we need to break over it and be around 70-80 mill so we can have a stronger bench and a better starter.


ALthough i do remember BC saying that this offseason (if no one big is traded) we would have about 7-8 million to replace AP with a better swing man.
MLE.
Only way.

If we stay the same as now, let all our expirings expire, we would be an estimated 6 million over the cap.
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Old 01-16-2009, 01:03 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Other than SA, I don't think there ever was a title winner who wasn't over the cap in recent years. And I'm not sure about SA either.
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Old 01-16-2009, 01:39 PM   #7 (permalink)
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We can renounce Joey can't we? So that gives us an extra 3 mil or so.

Do we get the MLE if we're under the cap or what?
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Old 01-16-2009, 01:46 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The MVP of West Hollywood View Post
We can renounce Joey can't we? So that gives us an extra 3 mil or so.

Do we get the MLE if we're under the cap or what?
We dont have to offer Joey any contract but that leaves an extra spot open to be filled again.

If you are under the cap you do not get the MLE
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Old 01-16-2009, 02:48 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Also keep in mind we're probably gonna get more players from Miami in a Marion deal if it goes through. Something like Wright (worth 2.8 mil) and Anthony (800k but expires this year). Hopefully not Banks without Kapono going back. So it could end up being like

Jose/Roko - 9.5 mil together
Delfino/Wright - 5.8 mil together
Kapono/Aminu or other 1st rounder - 8.2 mil
Bosh/Hump - 19 mil together
Bargs/Jawai - 7.2 mil together

= 49.5 mil. Which gives us a good 12 mil or so for Marvin or Odom, that sounds alright to me, and our roster will be alright. With a 2nd rounder 11.2 or so. Also if we make this Marion move, if BC wants to make sure he has enough money for these guys, I'm sure he can trade Hump or Wright a 2nd or something for a lesser contracted player and pick up an extra 2 mil to spend... maybe we'll resign Anthony for cheap as an extra big after that. He'll have options.

Looking at that lineup, we really should be getting rid of Kapono... we could have too many 3s next year even with Moon and Graham gone. My plan would be to do the Marion deal and then trade Kapono for Reggie Evans straight up to get our backup big.

Last edited by The MVP of West Hollywood; 01-16-2009 at 02:56 PM.
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Old 01-16-2009, 03:11 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The MVP of West Hollywood View Post
Also keep in mind we're probably gonna get more players from Miami in a Marion deal if it goes through. Something like Wright (worth 2.8 mil) and Anthony (800k but expires this year). Hopefully not Banks without Kapono going back. So it could end up being like

Jose/Roko - 9.5 mil together
Delfino/Wright - 5.8 mil together
Kapono/Aminu or other 1st rounder - 8.2 mil
Bosh/Hump - 19 mil together
Bargs/Jawai - 7.2 mil together

= 49.5 mil. Which gives us a good 12 mil or so for Marvin or Odom, that sounds alright to me, and our roster will be alright. With a 2nd rounder 11.2 or so. Also if we make this Marion move, if BC wants to make sure he has enough money for these guys, I'm sure he can trade Hump or Wright a 2nd or something for a lesser contracted player and pick up an extra 2 mil to spend... maybe we'll resign Anthony for cheap as an extra big after that. He'll have options.

Looking at that lineup, we really should be getting rid of Kapono... we could have too many 3s next year even with Moon and Graham gone. My plan would be to do the Marion deal and then trade Kapono for Reggie Evans straight up to get our backup big.
i am very impressed with how you guys can figure all this stuff out, thanks as it helps me understand this side of the game more..
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Old 01-16-2009, 03:51 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I think our best chance is to get some players oin 2009. I highly doubt we'd be able to contend in the 2010 FA
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Old 01-16-2009, 04:07 PM   #12 (permalink)
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delfino's caphold has got to be 5 million or so. its got to be about the same as joey's. its not included in this chart:


edit. forgot to cite the salaries. they're from draftexpress
shamsports has good salaries, too. i think they're be better than hoopshype's. sham also has solid free agent lists:
2009 Free Agent, Sorted By Team
2009 Free Agent, Sorted By Position

PS- this is just fantastic:wow

Last edited by spuriousjones; 01-16-2009 at 04:22 PM.
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Old 01-16-2009, 04:38 PM   #13 (permalink)
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shooting guard and small forward 2009 free agents

Shooting Guards
Code:
Name 	        Status
Kobe Bryant	Early termination option
Allen Iverson	Unrestricted
Jamal Crawford	Early termination option
Ben Gordon	        Unrestricted
Marquis Daniels	Team option
Q.Richardson	Early termination option
Jarrett Jack	        Restricted
Juan C Navarro	Restricted
Anthony Parker	Unrestricted
Rashad McCants	Restricted
Carlos Delfino	Restricted
Anthony Morrow	Unguaranteed
Gerald Green	Unrestricted
Brent Barry	        Unguaranteed
Devin Brown	Player option
Luther Head	Restricted
Von Wafer	        Option on restriction
Damien Wilkins	Early termination option
Michael Finley	Player option
Bobby Jackson	Unrestricted
Keith Bogans	Unrestricted
Sasha Pavlovic	Partially guaranteed
Dahntay Jones	Unrestricted
Fred Jones	        Unrestricted
Kareem Rush	Unrestricted
Juan Dixon	        Unrestricted
Sonny Weems	Partially guaranteed
Thomas Gardner	Option on restriction
Quinton Ross	Unrestricted
Shannon Brown	Option on restriction
Quincy Douby	Unrestricted
Alex Acker	        Team option
Morris Almond	Unrestricted
Greg Buckner	Partially guaranteed
Maurice Ager	Unrestricted
Small Forwards
Code:
Name	                Status
Ron Artest	        Unrestricted
Hidayet Turkoglu	Early termination option
Shawn Marion	Unrestricted
Lamar Odom	Unrestricted
Al Harrington	Player option
Marvin Williams	Restricted
Josh Childress	Restricted
Linas Kleiza	        Restricted
Grant Hill	        Unrestricted
Travis Outlaw	Unguaranteed
Trevor Ariza	Unrestricted
Matt Barnes	Unrestricted
Wally Szczerbiak	Unrestricted
Jamario Moon	Option on restriction
Kyle Korver	Early termination option
Desmond Mason	Unrestricted
Jerry Stackhouse	Partially guaranteed
Walter Herrmann	Option on restriction
Jarvis Hayes	Team option
Tarence Kinsey	Unguaranteed
Ricky Davis	        Player option
Matt Harpring	Partially guaranteed
Rodney Carney	Restricted
Trenton Hassell	Early termination option
Ime Udoka	        Unrestricted
James Singleton	Option on restriction
Ersan Ilyasova	Option on restriction
Steve Novak	Option on restriction
Dominic McGuire	Unguaranteed
Louis Amundson	Team option
Josh Powell	        Unguaranteed
Joey Graham	Restricted
Malik Hairston	Unguaranteed
Jer.Richardson	Option on restriction
Sun Yue             Unguaranteed
Yak. Diawara      Player option
Rob Kurz	        Option on restriction
Stephen Graham	Unrestricted
Ryan Bowen	Unrestricted
Devean George	Player option
edit. don't know why its not lining up properly. i've tried. at least i got it readable.
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Old 01-16-2009, 04:45 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
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delfino's caphold has got to be 5 million or so. its got to be about the same as joey's. its not included in this chart:



PS- this is just fantastic:wow
dude, you don't know the half of it...


Keyra Augustina...
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