FINAL: Raptors 95 Bobcats 100 - Page 16
Old 01-21-2014, 11:01 AM   #301 (permalink)
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people see demar shoot a contested shot, and they start cursing 'damn demar isos'.

The majority of the plays aren't isos. That word gets thrown around so much, but if you actually go back and watch the games, I bet you 70% of his shots come 2-3 seconds after running off a screen.

And they are contested, because the other team actually matters and has a say in whether or not they are going to contest a shot. Charlotte is a good defensive team, more often then not the shots you're going to get against a good defensive team will be contested.

The Raptors had plenty of uncontested shots to put them over the top; Patterson missed some wide open threes down the stretch, Vasquez missed two, Lowry missed the freethrow.

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Old 01-21-2014, 11:01 AM   #302 (permalink)
is.....

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Looks like all that 2nd round talk was premature.
With this team it aslways is....
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Old 01-21-2014, 11:06 AM   #303 (permalink)
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Of course it is - second round talk is premature for any team in the East who isn't Indiana and Miami.
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Old 01-21-2014, 11:33 AM   #304 (permalink)
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people see demar shoot a contested shot, and they start cursing 'damn demar isos'.

The majority of the plays aren't isos. That word gets thrown around so much, but if you actually go back and watch the games, I bet you 70% of his shots come 2-3 seconds after running off a screen.

And they are contested, because the other team actually matters and has a say in whether or not they are going to contest a shot. Charlotte is a good defensive team, more often then not the shots you're going to get against a good defensive team will be contested.

The Raptors had plenty of uncontested shots to put them over the top; Patterson missed some wide open threes down the stretch, Vasquez missed two, Lowry missed the freethrow.
Doesn't change the fact that DeMar takes a lot of contested shots, whether it is a poor decision on an iso or a poor decision off a screen. He scores 0.9 PPP off screens, 0.92 PPP on spot ups, and 0.9 PPP on iso's. That's bad, bad, and bad. He's decent league wide in those iso and off screen numbers, but those are still really bad PPP numbers in the context of an offense (1.03 is league average). And since he uses half his possessions in those ways, that's bad news.
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Old 01-21-2014, 12:16 PM   #305 (permalink)
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Doesn't change the fact that DeMar takes a lot of contested shots, whether it is a poor decision on an iso or a poor decision off a screen. He scores 0.9 PPP off screens, 0.92 PPP on spot ups, and 0.9 PPP on iso's. That's bad, bad, and bad. He's decent league wide in those iso and off screen numbers, but those are still really bad PPP numbers in the context of an offense (1.03 is league average). And since he uses half his possessions in those ways, that's bad news.
So he's decent league wide in those iso and off screen numbers but it's bad bad and bad. You have to look at the numbers in the context of Demar's role to the team and in the context of how other teams defend the Toronto Raptors.

Numbers without context is bad news.

So if he is decent league wide in iso and off-screen numbers...that's actually decent and decent because that is his role. He's not the spot up shooter, he's the offensive instigator. So he's decent at what he's supposed to be decent at at.

He could play better though. That is for sure.

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Old 01-21-2014, 12:47 PM   #306 (permalink)
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So he's decent league wide in those iso and off screen numbers but it's bad bad and bad. You have to look at the numbers in the context of Demar's role to the team and in the context of how other teams defend the Toronto Raptors.

Numbers without context is bad news.

So if he is decent league wide in iso and off-screen numbers...that's actually decent and decent because that is his role. He's not the spot up shooter, he's the offensive instigator. So he's decent at what he's supposed to be decent at at.

He could play better though. That is for sure.
I'm confused. Are you under the impression that a player taking bad shots is a good thing because of his role?

The problem isn't that DeMar is an inefficient scorer on iso plays and off screens relative to the rest of the league - the problem is that those plays are inefficient league wide, they are exactly what the defense wants you to do, and they are what he does most (along with spot up shots, where the problem IS that he is terribly inefficient). And he takes only 15% of his shots with the shot clock down, so you can hardly argue that his role as release valve is driving the shot selection.

Oh, and spot-ups are basically tied with screen plays for the two highest usage plays for DD, so to say his role in the offense is not to spot up I don't think is accurate.
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Old 01-21-2014, 12:48 PM   #307 (permalink)
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just when i thought this fanbase couldn't get any more ridiculous
I've been following him for around 5 years.
How many months you are following JV? This is a rethorical question, no need to answer.
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Old 01-21-2014, 12:57 PM   #308 (permalink)
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I've been following him for around 5 years.
How many months you are following JV? .
3 years
still doesn't make your response to his play any less ridiculous
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Old 01-21-2014, 01:05 PM   #309 (permalink)
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I'm confused. Are you under the impression that a player taking bad shots is a good thing because of his role?

The problem isn't that DeMar is an inefficient scorer on iso plays and off screens relative to the rest of the league - the problem is that those plays are inefficient league wide, they are exactly what the defense wants you to do, and they are what he does most (along with spot up shots, where the problem IS that he is terribly inefficient). And he takes only 15% of his shots with the shot clock down, so you can hardly argue that his role as release valve is driving the shot selection.


Oh, and spot-ups are basically tied with screen plays for the two highest usage plays for DD, so to say his role in the offense is not to spot up I don't think is accurate.
I think you're confused because your idea of a good shot and bad shot is based on the premise of % rather than understanding the strategic implications of what making certain shots can have throughout the course of a game.

Those plays might be inefficient (when comparing them with somebody who has their feet set waiting to shoot....inefficient...maybe just different is a better way of describing them)- but if nobody takes those shots - nobody is shooting spot-ups. The only reason their are spot-ups is because players are taking their guys one on one or using a teammate and coming off screens. I know it would be great if basketball were baseketball and we could just say everything is independent - but it isn't. It's all connected. Toronto's 103.4 efficiency (at par with the league) is more often than not initiated by Demar coming off of a down screen. So saying he is inefficient is fine, but his team is performing at par because he is efficient enough at the inefficient shots to create spacing and attract attention so teammates can hit efficient shots.

I don't know who classifies these stats or where you get them from, so I have no idea if they're accurate as well.

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Old 01-21-2014, 02:12 PM   #310 (permalink)
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I think you're confused because your idea of a good shot and bad shot is based on the premise of % rather than understanding the strategic implications of what making certain shots can have throughout the course of a game.

Those plays might be inefficient (when comparing them with somebody who has their feet set waiting to shoot....inefficient...maybe just different is a better way of describing them)- but if nobody takes those shots - nobody is shooting spot-ups. The only reason their are spot-ups is because players are taking their guys one on one or using a teammate and coming off screens. I know it would be great if basketball were baseketball and we could just say everything is independent - but it isn't. It's all connected. Toronto's 103.4 efficiency (at par with the league) is more often than not initiated by Demar coming off of a down screen. So saying he is inefficient is fine, but his team is performing at par because he is efficient enough at the inefficient shots to create spacing and attract attention so teammates can hit efficient shots.

I don't know who classifies these stats or where you get them from, so I have no idea if they're accurate as well.
Funny then how when he is on versus off the court, there's almost no impact on our offensive efficiency (less than 1 point per 100 possessions), while no player even approaches DD's usage rate while he sits, except Lowry, and Lowry manages to score very efficiently in the same role - unsurprisingly by taking better shots (more 3's, more layups, less contested fadeaway freaking long twos).
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Old 01-21-2014, 02:27 PM   #311 (permalink)
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3 years
still doesn't make your response to his play any less ridiculous
If someone thats been following him since he was a teenager tells me he looks disinterested, Im worried.
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Old 01-21-2014, 02:47 PM   #312 (permalink)
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Long contested two is never a good shot, I understand when players take it late in the shot-clock, but other than that I hate it. I don't even see how this can be an argument, taking contested jumpshot is just a lazy play.
This reminds me when one of the posters (can't remember who it was) tried to convince me that Rudy shooting a fade-away is a good shot ''because he can hit it''.
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Old 01-21-2014, 04:26 PM   #313 (permalink)
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Funny then how when he is on versus off the court, there's almost no impact on our offensive efficiency (less than 1 point per 100 possessions), while no player even approaches DD's usage rate while he sits, except Lowry, and Lowry manages to score very efficiently in the same role - unsurprisingly by taking better shots (more 3's, more layups, less contested fadeaway freaking long twos).
In terms of defensive strategy and preparation, teams strategize a lot more for the 38 minutes Demar is on the court, then for the 12 minutes he is off of it. Despite this, the Raptors are still slightly more efficient with Demar on the court being decent at inefficient shots.

The numbers you keep providing just create a picture of how this team is built and how the team plays. They don't really point to the success or failure of anybody. Demar is in that role the numbers are describing.

If anything, what you are arguing is that a team, any team would be better off without taking any two point jumpshots off of isos or screens. Which is...innovative? or unrealistic?

It is what it is - sometimes he doesn't play well, sometimes he does. But the team for the most part has been playing really well despite the recent slump and he's been arguably their best player. It will be more important to look at his efficiency (in his role) when he and the team stop improving and the ups and downs level out.

The mid-range game is king. Kobe, Dirk, MJ, DWade. The court didn't open up for Lebron against SA until he hit the mid-range jumpers that SA was gifting him. Once a player gets it going in that area it opens up the entire court.

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Old 01-21-2014, 04:42 PM   #314 (permalink)
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In terms of defensive strategy and preparation, teams strategize a lot more for the 38 minutes Demar is on the court, then for the 12 minutes he is off of it. Despite this, the Raptors are still slightly more efficient with Demar on the court being decent at inefficient shots.

The numbers you keep providing just create a picture of how this team is built and how the team plays. They don't really point to the success or failure of anybody. Demar is in that role the numbers are describing.

If anything, what you are arguing is that a team, any team would be better off without taking any two point jumpshots off of isos or screens. Which is...innovative? or unrealistic?

It is what it is - sometimes he doesn't play well, sometimes he does. But the team for the most part has been playing really well despite the recent slump and he's been arguably their best player. It will be more important to look at his efficiency (in his role) when he and the team stop improving and the ups and downs level out.
What I'm saying is that a successful defense will force a team to take those shots.

And I can live with a team having to take those shots after a couple set plays designed to get shots other than those. Or running good plays to get uncontested versions of those shots, to force the defense to adjust and open up other areas of the game. But DeMar too often will settle for those shots way too early in the shot clock, or make an effort during a possession to get one of those shots, or take those shots with a defender in his face when he doesn't need to. And to his credit, he hits those shots at a decent clip relative to the rest of the league.

But the problem is that those sorts of shots should be used occasionally to keep the defense on its toes. Or should only be primary weapons for the rare players who hit them at a great clip (rare as evidenced by the terrible league wide averages on those shots).

DeMar has taken 223 jump shots from 15-19 feet. That's 2nd in the entire league. He hits them at a 37.7% clip. That's 213th in the entire league. For mid-range shots in general, DD is 3rd in the league in attempts, and 196th in FG%. You seriously don't see a problem with that?
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Old 01-21-2014, 04:47 PM   #315 (permalink)
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Here's a fun stat. Which teams force their opponents to take the most mid-range shots per game?

In order:
CHI
IND
ORL
SAS
GSW

Which teams have the best DRTG in the entire league?

In order:
IND
CHI
OKC
SAS
GSW

Quite the job their opponents are doing of "opening up the floor."
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Old 01-21-2014, 04:51 PM   #316 (permalink)
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DeMar has taken 223 jump shots from 15-19 feet. That's 2nd in the entire league. He hits them at a 37.7% clip. That's 213th in the entire league. For mid-range shots in general, DD is 3rd in the league in attempts, and 196th in FG%. You seriously don't see a problem with that?
So he shoots 15-19 feet jumpers in 37.7% from the field that are contested by his defender or even double team?
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Old 01-21-2014, 04:52 PM   #317 (permalink)
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Here's a fun stat. Which teams force their opponents to take the most mid-range shots per game?

In order:
CHI
IND
ORL
SAS
GSW

Which teams have the best DRTG in the entire league?

In order:
IND
CHI
OKC
SAS
GSW

Quite the job their opponents are doing of "opening up the floor."
That to me looks like an argument for improving at the mid-range jumpshot.

The key word you used is 'force'...you understand that right? The three pointer wasn't there. The drive to the net wasn't there. What that should tell you is that the mid-range jumpshot isn't something that is an appertif that simply accompanies the big three pointer and slam dunk - it's absolutely 100% needed. It is the shot that beats the best defense in the NBA.

It's why MJ was King. And Kobe. And Dirk. The mid-range game is checkmate in the playoffs.

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Old 01-21-2014, 05:00 PM   #318 (permalink)
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DeMar has taken 223 jump shots from 15-19 feet. That's 2nd in the entire league. He hits them at a 37.7% clip. That's 213th in the entire league. For mid-range shots in general, DD is 3rd in the league in attempts, and 196th in FG%. You seriously don't see a problem with that?
I thought you said he was decent using points per possession in those situations??? I thought I was the only one who still liked the tried and true stats like FG% vs. advanced stats.
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Old 01-21-2014, 05:16 PM   #319 (permalink)
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I see a huge amount of good ball movement that opens up thanks to DeMar being the focus of attention.

He can get better handling situations, but he's hardly where the ups and downs with this team lies. That would be with the interior defense falling off a cliff, and Lowry not providing quite the same effort defending at the point of attack. The offense does need to figure out how to respond to some of the schemes in order to counterpunch, but a lot of that is just shots going down and JV getting better hands inside again. Having two sophomores in the starting lineup, and steadying pieces like Salmons and Hansbrough not available, is going to mean some of the counter measures just don't materialize consistently enough.
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Old 01-21-2014, 06:16 PM   #320 (permalink)
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I see a huge amount of good ball movement that opens up thanks to DeMar being the focus of attention.

He can get better handling situations, but he's hardly where the ups and downs with this team lies. That would be with the interior defense falling off a cliff, and Lowry not providing quite the same effort defending at the point of attack. The offense does need to figure out how to respond to some of the schemes in order to counterpunch, but a lot of that is just shots going down and JV getting better hands inside again. Having two sophomores in the starting lineup, and steadying pieces like Salmons and Hansbrough not available, is going to mean some of the counter measures just don't materialize consistently enough.
That doesn't mean that he should settle for bad shots, just because he is first or second option and requires the most attention from the defense shouldn't be the green light to take lazy shots when he can go to the hole, especially with his ability to draw fouls.
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