ESPN: Raptors have less the 50% chance at making playoffs

jeffb · 12-09-2009, 09:29 AM

ESPN is saying that we have a 46.9% chance of making the playoffs, with Charlotte and Detroit having better chances. What i don't get is if we don't even had a 50% chance, why do they have us finishing in the playoffs @ 8th?

Ohhhhhhhhh, that Hollinger??

2010 NBA Playoff Odds - ESPN

**Acie** · 12-09-2009, 09:32 AM

Hollinger has a 28.96868574737% of being right.

jeffb · 12-09-2009, 09:35 AM

What i don't get is Miami at 90%. They're an injury away (Wade) from being a lottery team and are currently only 2 games over .500 with a farely favourable schedule.

raptor123 · 12-09-2009, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeffb

ESPN is saying that we have a 46.9% chance of making the playoffs, with Charlotte and Detroit having better chances. What i don't get is if we don't even had a 50% chance, why do they have us finishing in the playoffs @ 8th?

Ohhhhhhhhh, that Hollinger??

2010 NBA Playoff Odds - ESPN

Jeff, I think its because we have the 8 highest %, that would put us in the 8 th seed. The % changes every night and its based on daily play. The % are definitly misleading.

jeffb · 12-09-2009, 09:44 AM

To show how fucked up this guy is....Hollinger's power rankings have the Knicks at 16, Memphis at 19th and the Raptors at 22nd. lol

Someguy again · 12-09-2009, 10:03 AM

Cleary guy does not watch the games, but the box score.

OKC is clearly not ready, yes they shown some magic, but they are not a complete team ESPECIALLY in the paint.

Portland is the definition of Laker killers, so they can wake up anytime this season.

DVS · 12-09-2009, 10:10 AM

I dunno whats the knock on this percentage. Its just all law of averages and the Raps do have a better chance than most of the lesser likes in the East.

Toronto Raptors Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

sports club stats predicts virtually the same thing. With so many teams still having a legit shot at a playoff position you realize why they got to these numbers

jrob23 · 12-09-2009, 10:15 AM

it's all based on winning percentage lol

he's not jsut throwing these numbers out of nowhere he analyzed team records thus far and then that's where he's coming from

say we go on a 7 game win streak, and move in to the middle bubble of the east (behind miami), our chances increase substantially

HugoBoss · 12-09-2009, 10:29 AM

I took a quick look and from a glance -
I like but I wonder why the Raptors have like the BIGGEST range between the "best" and "worst" record possible - 17 wins as a worst, 55 wins at best!!! 38 win difference!!!

I guess that means we really can be "extremely AMAZING or extremly BAD" still eh

DVS · 12-09-2009, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HugoBoss

I took a quick look and from a glance -
I like but I wonder why the Raptors have like the BIGGEST range between the "best" and "worst" record possible - 17 wins as a worst, 55 wins at best!!! 38 win difference!!!

I guess that means we really can be "extremely AMAZING or extremly BAD" still eh

These are more gamblers stats than anything else. It just gives you statistical certainty.

Being a follower of the New York Giants Sports Stats had them as a 93% chance of making the playoffs when undefeated and now its a 44% chance. It doesn't really tell you if they'll make it or not in truth but it gives u a statistical gage on how important the rest of the schedule is to the raps.

Right now the Raps have to finish off .500 or better to be in a real race for the playoffs so the statistical markings of Hollingers is quite accurate.

Now everyone here would think they have more information than just the statistics. Also, many to overvaluve the Talent of the Raptors would think they would have greater than 50% chance to win.

Whatever the case I have a bet on the over for 38.5 wins I hope you are all correct

moremilk · 12-09-2009, 01:33 PM

you got to understand those numbers, they are based on a math formula and assume everybody will continue to play exactly like they did. They have no value at this point in the season, only after 60+ games they start to be relevant.

DVS · 12-09-2009, 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moremilk

you got to understand those numbers, they are based on a math formula and assume everybody will continue to play exactly like they did. They have no value at this point in the season, only after 60+ games they start to be relevant.

I totally agree. When there are 10-15 games left and the raps are close to the playoff or no playoff line these stats will mean a ton.

MikeToronto · 12-09-2009, 01:37 PM

To better realize why Hollinger's math is far from perfect, take a look at the current PER ratings for various players: John Hollinger's NBA Player Statistics - NBA Basketball - ESPN

Yes, the players you'd expect to be at the top of these "ratings" are there, but what about Nazr Mohammed at #12? Or Carl Landry at #15? Or Rasho Nesterovich having second-best PER among our player behind Bosh at #26?

Stats... There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

**finstock** · 12-09-2009, 01:43 PM

Too many potentially volatile variables to gauge realistically..this is an absurd presumption.

bladeraptor · 12-09-2009, 01:46 PM

Hollinger just hates the raps. he can suck a red, white and blue turd.

**'trane** · 12-09-2009, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeToronto

To better realize why Hollinger's math is far from perfect, take a look at the current PER ratings for various players: John Hollinger's NBA Player Statistics - NBA Basketball - ESPN

Yes, the players you'd expect to be at the top of these "ratings" are there, but what about Nazr Mohammed at #12? Or Carl Landry at #15? Or Rasho Nesterovich having second-best PER among our player behind Bosh at #26?

Stats... There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

landry is having an awesome year. he's a clear frontrunner for 6th man right now, and he's putting up very efficient stats in less than 25 minutes off the bench. he's a huge reason that the rockets have been so successful.

Stonezz · 12-09-2009, 01:50 PM

If I saw Hollinger in person I would throw big ass snowballs with ice in 'em at his dome

MikeToronto · 12-09-2009, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 'trane

landry is having an awesome year. he's a clear frontrunner for 6th man right now, and he's putting up very efficient stats in less than 25 minutes off the bench. he's a huge reason that the rockets have been so successful.

And Nazr?

Snooch · 12-09-2009, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bladeraptor

Hollinger just hates the raps. he can suck a red, white and blue turd.

that is foolish.

He loves Nash, nash is canadian.

jeffb · 12-09-2009, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snooch

that is foolish.

He loves Nash, nash is canadian.

What, do you expect him to rip into a two time MVP who's playing like he's 25?

12-09-2009, 09:29 AM	#1 (permalink)
jeffb is EL PRESIDENTE Senior Member Join Date: May 2008 Location: YO MAMMA Posts: 58,200 Representing:	ESPN: Raptors have less the 50% chance at making playoffs ESPN is saying that we have a 46.9% chance of making the playoffs, with Charlotte and Detroit having better chances. What i don't get is if we don't even had a 50% chance, why do they have us finishing in the playoffs @ 8th? Ohhhhhhhhh, that Hollinger?? 2010 NBA Playoff Odds - ESPN

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12-09-2009, 09:32 AM	#2 (permalink)
Acie is landry fields forever Administrator Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Living in a van down by the river Posts: 20,468 Representing:	Hollinger has a 28.96868574737% of being right.

12-09-2009, 09:35 AM	#3 (permalink)
jeffb is EL PRESIDENTE Senior Member Join Date: May 2008 Location: YO MAMMA Posts: 58,200 Representing:	What i don't get is Miami at 90%. They're an injury away (Wade) from being a lottery team and are currently only 2 games over .500 with a farely favourable schedule.

12-09-2009, 09:44 AM	#5 (permalink)
jeffb is EL PRESIDENTE Senior Member Join Date: May 2008 Location: YO MAMMA Posts: 58,200 Representing:	To show how fucked up this guy is....Hollinger's power rankings have the Knicks at 16, Memphis at 19th and the Raptors at 22nd. lol

12-09-2009, 10:03 AM	#6 (permalink)
Someguy again is a boshaoplogetic member Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 6,073 Representing:	Cleary guy does not watch the games, but the box score. OKC is clearly not ready, yes they shown some magic, but they are not a complete team ESPECIALLY in the paint. Portland is the definition of Laker killers, so they can wake up anytime this season.

12-09-2009, 10:10 AM	#7 (permalink)
DVS is in la la land I'm stuck being a Rap Fan Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: Its jeffb's world we just post in it Posts: 5,971 Representing:	I dunno whats the knock on this percentage. Its just all law of averages and the Raps do have a better chance than most of the lesser likes in the East. Toronto Raptors Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats sports club stats predicts virtually the same thing. With so many teams still having a legit shot at a playoff position you realize why they got to these numbers

12-09-2009, 10:15 AM	#8 (permalink)
jrob23 is pounding the rock! Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 875 Representing:	it's all based on winning percentage lol he's not jsut throwing these numbers out of nowhere he analyzed team records thus far and then that's where he's coming from say we go on a 7 game win streak, and move in to the middle bubble of the east (behind miami), our chances increase substantially

12-09-2009, 10:29 AM	#9 (permalink)
HugoBoss is pounding the rock! Member Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Waterloo / Toronto Posts: 139 Representing:	I took a quick look and from a glance - I like but I wonder why the Raptors have like the BIGGEST range between the "best" and "worst" record possible - 17 wins as a worst, 55 wins at best!!! 38 win difference!!! I guess that means we really can be "extremely AMAZING or extremly BAD" still eh

12-09-2009, 01:33 PM	#11 (permalink)
moremilk is whatever Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: toronto Posts: 7,206 Representing:	you got to understand those numbers, they are based on a math formula and assume everybody will continue to play exactly like they did. They have no value at this point in the season, only after 60+ games they start to be relevant.

12-09-2009, 01:37 PM	#13 (permalink)
MikeToronto is Gam zeh ya'avor The Gatekeeper Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Toronto Posts: 3,544 Representing:	To better realize why Hollinger's math is far from perfect, take a look at the current PER ratings for various players: John Hollinger's NBA Player Statistics - NBA Basketball - ESPN Yes, the players you'd expect to be at the top of these "ratings" are there, but what about Nazr Mohammed at #12? Or Carl Landry at #15? Or Rasho Nesterovich having second-best PER among our player behind Bosh at #26? Stats... There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

12-09-2009, 01:43 PM	#14 (permalink)
finstock is baking the cookies of discontent. (Terrence) Ross Geller Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Vancouver Posts: 3,024 Representing:	Too many potentially volatile variables to gauge realistically..this is an absurd presumption.

12-09-2009, 01:46 PM	#15 (permalink)
bladeraptor is neither hither nor thither the big raptus Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Sheffield, England Posts: 224 Representing:	Hollinger just hates the raps. he can suck a red, white and blue turd.

12-09-2009, 01:50 PM	#17 (permalink)
Stonezz is on some cool out shit Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,567 Representing:	If I saw Hollinger in person I would throw big ass snowballs with ice in 'em at his dome