ESPN: Raptors have less the 50% chance at making playoffs
Old 12-09-2009, 09:29 AM   #1 (permalink)
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ESPN: Raptors have less the 50% chance at making playoffs

ESPN is saying that we have a 46.9% chance of making the playoffs, with Charlotte and Detroit having better chances. What i don't get is if we don't even had a 50% chance, why do they have us finishing in the playoffs @ 8th?

Ohhhhhhhhh, that Hollinger??

2010 NBA Playoff Odds - ESPN
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Old 12-09-2009, 09:32 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Hollinger has a 28.96868574737% of being right.
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Old 12-09-2009, 09:35 AM   #3 (permalink)
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What i don't get is Miami at 90%. They're an injury away (Wade) from being a lottery team and are currently only 2 games over .500 with a farely favourable schedule.
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Old 12-09-2009, 09:36 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by jeffb View Post
ESPN is saying that we have a 46.9% chance of making the playoffs, with Charlotte and Detroit having better chances. What i don't get is if we don't even had a 50% chance, why do they have us finishing in the playoffs @ 8th?

Ohhhhhhhhh, that Hollinger??

2010 NBA Playoff Odds - ESPN


Jeff, I think its because we have the 8 highest %, that would put us in the 8 th seed. The % changes every night and its based on daily play. The % are definitly misleading.
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Old 12-09-2009, 09:44 AM   #5 (permalink)
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To show how fucked up this guy is....Hollinger's power rankings have the Knicks at 16, Memphis at 19th and the Raptors at 22nd. lol
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Old 12-09-2009, 10:03 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Cleary guy does not watch the games, but the box score.

OKC is clearly not ready, yes they shown some magic, but they are not a complete team ESPECIALLY in the paint.

Portland is the definition of Laker killers, so they can wake up anytime this season.
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Old 12-09-2009, 10:10 AM   #7 (permalink)
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I dunno whats the knock on this percentage. Its just all law of averages and the Raps do have a better chance than most of the lesser likes in the East.

Toronto Raptors Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

sports club stats predicts virtually the same thing. With so many teams still having a legit shot at a playoff position you realize why they got to these numbers
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Old 12-09-2009, 10:15 AM   #8 (permalink)
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it's all based on winning percentage lol


he's not jsut throwing these numbers out of nowhere he analyzed team records thus far and then that's where he's coming from

say we go on a 7 game win streak, and move in to the middle bubble of the east (behind miami), our chances increase substantially
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Old 12-09-2009, 10:29 AM   #9 (permalink)
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I took a quick look and from a glance -
I like but I wonder why the Raptors have like the BIGGEST range between the "best" and "worst" record possible - 17 wins as a worst, 55 wins at best!!! 38 win difference!!!

I guess that means we really can be "extremely AMAZING or extremly BAD" still eh
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Old 12-09-2009, 12:46 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HugoBoss View Post
I took a quick look and from a glance -
I like but I wonder why the Raptors have like the BIGGEST range between the "best" and "worst" record possible - 17 wins as a worst, 55 wins at best!!! 38 win difference!!!

I guess that means we really can be "extremely AMAZING or extremly BAD" still eh
These are more gamblers stats than anything else. It just gives you statistical certainty.

Being a follower of the New York Giants Sports Stats had them as a 93% chance of making the playoffs when undefeated and now its a 44% chance. It doesn't really tell you if they'll make it or not in truth but it gives u a statistical gage on how important the rest of the schedule is to the raps.

Right now the Raps have to finish off .500 or better to be in a real race for the playoffs so the statistical markings of Hollingers is quite accurate.

Now everyone here would think they have more information than just the statistics. Also, many to overvaluve the Talent of the Raptors would think they would have greater than 50% chance to win.

Whatever the case I have a bet on the over for 38.5 wins I hope you are all correct
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Old 12-09-2009, 01:33 PM   #11 (permalink)
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you got to understand those numbers, they are based on a math formula and assume everybody will continue to play exactly like they did. They have no value at this point in the season, only after 60+ games they start to be relevant.
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Old 12-09-2009, 01:35 PM   #12 (permalink)
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you got to understand those numbers, they are based on a math formula and assume everybody will continue to play exactly like they did. They have no value at this point in the season, only after 60+ games they start to be relevant.
I totally agree. When there are 10-15 games left and the raps are close to the playoff or no playoff line these stats will mean a ton.
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Old 12-09-2009, 01:37 PM   #13 (permalink)
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To better realize why Hollinger's math is far from perfect, take a look at the current PER ratings for various players: John Hollinger's NBA Player Statistics - NBA Basketball - ESPN

Yes, the players you'd expect to be at the top of these "ratings" are there, but what about Nazr Mohammed at #12? Or Carl Landry at #15? Or Rasho Nesterovich having second-best PER among our player behind Bosh at #26?

Stats... There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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Old 12-09-2009, 01:43 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Too many potentially volatile variables to gauge realistically..this is an absurd presumption.
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Old 12-09-2009, 01:46 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Hollinger just hates the raps. he can suck a red, white and blue turd.
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Old 12-09-2009, 01:49 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeToronto View Post
To better realize why Hollinger's math is far from perfect, take a look at the current PER ratings for various players: John Hollinger's NBA Player Statistics - NBA Basketball - ESPN

Yes, the players you'd expect to be at the top of these "ratings" are there, but what about Nazr Mohammed at #12? Or Carl Landry at #15? Or Rasho Nesterovich having second-best PER among our player behind Bosh at #26?

Stats... There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.
landry is having an awesome year. he's a clear frontrunner for 6th man right now, and he's putting up very efficient stats in less than 25 minutes off the bench. he's a huge reason that the rockets have been so successful.
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Old 12-09-2009, 01:50 PM   #17 (permalink)
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If I saw Hollinger in person I would throw big ass snowballs with ice in 'em at his dome
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Old 12-09-2009, 02:47 PM   #18 (permalink)
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landry is having an awesome year. he's a clear frontrunner for 6th man right now, and he's putting up very efficient stats in less than 25 minutes off the bench. he's a huge reason that the rockets have been so successful.
And Nazr?
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Old 12-09-2009, 02:52 PM   #19 (permalink)
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Hollinger just hates the raps. he can suck a red, white and blue turd.
that is foolish.

He loves Nash, nash is canadian.
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Old 12-09-2009, 03:01 PM   #20 (permalink)
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that is foolish.

He loves Nash, nash is canadian.
What, do you expect him to rip into a two time MVP who's playing like he's 25?
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