ESPN Insider: Lowry ranked 8th among PG's, by WARP
Old 07-29-2013, 03:43 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Raptors ESPN Insider: Lowry ranked 8th among PG's, by WARP

This was posted at RealGm by pbj. No link was posted, does anyone have access to ESPN Insider?

According to an ESPN Insider article, Lowry is projected this season to the be the 8th best PG ranked by Wins Above Replacement Player.

1. Paul
2. Westbrook
3. Irving
4. Curry
5. Williams
6. Conley
7. Rose
8. Lowry
9. Lawson
10. Lillard

Quote:
8. Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors

Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1

Lowry has put up right around 8.0 WARP in each of the past three seasons. He's in his prime and remains underrated. Could some younger guards behind Lowry climb over him on the value ladder? Sure. There are a number of point guards with higher ceilings, but few who have demonstrated such a consistent level of play.
Ranking 11-15: Walker, Wall, Parker, Calderon, and Rubio.
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Old 07-29-2013, 03:49 PM   #2 (permalink)
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So what I drew from this is WARP isn't a great stat.
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Old 07-29-2013, 04:00 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by KoolAid View Post
So what I drew from this is WARP isn't a great stat.
What I drew from what you drew from that, is that you have a need to see little value in just about anyone on the roster.

I will refrain from any conclusions myself until someone tells me what the fuck this stat is exactly.
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Old 07-29-2013, 04:11 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by LX View Post
What I drew from what you drew from that, is that you have a need to see little value in just about anyone on the roster.

I will refrain from any conclusions myself until someone tells me what the fuck this stat is exactly.
WARP is similar to WS from basketball-reference. It correlates boxscore stats into an individual ORTG and DRTG, then correlates ORTG and DRTG (as points scored and allowed) into a winning percentage using the Pythagorean model. Specifically with a power of 14, which is common among sports stats.

Win% = ORTG^14 / (ORTG^14 + DRTG^14)

Then it gets adjusted to assume that removing the player wouldn't result in 0 wins, but in a replacement level of wins (about 10 wins for the season for a roster of replacement level players).

It's kind of a bad way to do it, as it uses only boxscore stats (whereas bball-ref's system uses more intricately defined defensive tracking stats) like steals and blocks as well as team defense to establish DRTG. But all in all, it is a fairly robust approach if you accept the limitations of the boxscore.

So Lowry in theory generated 8 more wins for the team than, say, Dwight Buycks would have, assuming Buycks is that entry level replacement player assumed in the anaylsis.
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Old 07-29-2013, 04:18 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Can we stop talking about WARP or PER - WS and WS/48 MIN is king
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Old 07-29-2013, 04:23 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Is there any explanation in the article for Parker being outside top 10?
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Old 07-29-2013, 04:52 PM   #7 (permalink)
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This is so incorrect. Lowry at his best is top 10 but most of the time he is not!
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Old 07-29-2013, 05:02 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Copy pasting from another place. Apparently, his stats don't like John Wall, he projects Parker's decline and he projects Rondo will miss a lot of games.

Quote:
By Bradford Doolittle

As we enter the dog days of the summer -- always a calm time in the NBA -- there are a few notable free agents still out there (Greg Oden, Mo Williams and DeJuan Blair come to mind). For the most part, though, we've got a pretty firm idea what the rosters are going to look like when the 2013-14 season tips off on Oct. 29. As the depth charts have filled, so have the forecasts generated by ATH coalesced. ATH is the projection module of NBAPET, my system of integrated spreadsheets for tracking, evaluating and forecasting all things NBA.

With the pieces falling into place, let's take an early stab at ranking players by position, beginning today with point guards. (Although keep in mind that assigning a primary position to a player in today's NBA is often more art than science.) Over the next two weeks, we'll rank players by position according to ATH's forecasted WARP, or wins above replacement level. WARP is perfect for this kind of exercise because it accounts for a player's efficiency, volume of production and team context.

Here are the projected top 10 point guards for the 2013-14 NBA season followed by the next five and an overview of how some notable PGs fell outside the top 10.

1. Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 15.9

This might be the Year of Chris Paul, if the Miami Heat falter a bit in the regular season or MVP voters grow tired of rubber-stamping LeBron James' name at the top of their ballots. With the Clippers poised to build upon last year's breakout season and challenge for the top seed in the West, it could come down to a Paul versus Kevin Durant battle for the coveted Maurice Podoloff Trophy. Paul has finished in the top five of the voting four times and as high as second. Although ATH sees a near replica of Paul's 2012-13 WARP, it's still a figure that will garner lots of MVP chatter.

And why wouldn't ATH see Paul churning out the same season? At 29, he's squarely in his prime and his individual winning percentages the past two seasons (.740 and .739) nicely illustrate just how consistent he is. Paul doesn't use as many possessions as he did in his top seasons in New Orleans, but every other facet of his game has remained intact. Last season, Paul shot a career-low 32.8 percent from 3-point range, although he offset that by doing more damage inside the arc. He's shot as high as 40.9 percent from deep in his career, and if he has a fluky good-shooting campaign, it could put him over a .600 true shooting percentage for the first time in his career. In fact, ATH sees a regression in the 3-point rate, bringing Paul up to a .600 TS% on the nose. With so many weapons around him -- Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford, Jared Dudley, J.J. Redick, Matt Barnes, Reggie Bullock -- it will be up to Paul to orchestrate the most high-powered offensive attack he's been a part of to date.

2. Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.7

By the time the MVP voting results were released during the playoffs, Westbrook had been knocked out by a knee injury and unfortunately, that's probably what we will remember most from his 2012-13 season. Overlooked at the time was the fact that Westbrook finished ninth in the voting despite ranking third in WARP. While Westbrook's value to the Thunder was apparently overlooked when the ballots were completed, it was abundantly clear when he was absent during the postseason. ATH isn't forecasting a decline for Westbrook this season as much as a regression, and the distinction is important. Regression, in a statistical context, simply means moving toward average. It can be a positive or negative effect, yet many people take the term as a pejorative.

Westbrook took a huge leap last season and like Derrick Rose in 2011-12, he's likely to come back to earth just a little bit. ATH sees Westbrook maintaining his roughly 33 percent usage rate of the last two seasons. Given some possible shortages on the Oklahoma City bench, it could climb even higher depending on how many of his minutes come with Kevin Durant off the floor. If so, Westbrook's tepid efficiency could slide into the danger area.

3. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 11.4

On a per-possession basis, ATH sees Irving bypassing Westbrook as the second-best point guard in the NBA. In general, NBA players experience the most growth in their early 20s, and Irving will be barely 22 by the time the 2013-14 postseason rolls around. His revamped Cavaliers might well be a part of the proceedings. ATH sees a growth in Irving's efficiency both inside and outside the arc, resulting in a soaring true shooting percentage of .574. That's all while using the same portion of Cleveland's offense as the other young Cavaliers grow around him. The three-win leap in WARP is doable, but it would certainly help if Irving can make it through a season healthy. After two seasons, his career high in games played is just 59.

4. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 10.7

Curry jumped from 4.7 WARP to 15.8 last season, but of course his health was the driving force in that quantum leap. Curry's winning percentage the last two seasons has been virtually identical: .665 and .669. He'll turn 26 this year, so chances are he's established his level of play, giving him less of a ceiling than someone like Irving. However, that level of play is really impressive. You can set your watch by Curry's 3-point shooting, but last year he actually shot worse inside the arc than outside it. ATH sees a regression in the right direction in that regard, but a concurrent one in the wrong direction in Curry's turnover rate. If Curry can continue his improvement in ball protection, his bottom-line value will rival that of the non-Paul class of point guards.

5. Deron Williams, Brooklyn Nets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 9.9

With the change in talent around him, Williams will be one of the most intriguing players to watch in the coming season. During his best years in Utah, Williams was an assist machine, but as a Net he initially took on a heavy scoring load and his efficiency dropped off the map. Last season, with Brooklyn's roster improved, Williams' usage rate returned to previous levels, and his shooting percentages recovered accordingly. However, his assist rate was his lowest since his rookie season. Williams' turnovers also were down, so he simply had the ball less. With so much talent and so many alpha personalities on the new Nets, Williams can either be more of a cog in the machine or he can become its operator. Given the on-court proclivities of his new coach, Jason Kidd, I'm going to guess it's going to be the latter. If Williams can return to his days of double-digit assists, it will be a sign the new mix in Brooklyn is working.

6. Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.5

ATH sees Conley's 2012-13 season as a career campaign, but he's not likely to regress much. The biggest uptick in his game last year was shot selection, with a five percent increase in the portion of his possessions that ended with a 3-point attempt. That kind of wisdom, once gained, is not easily lost.

7. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.3

Forecasting games played always is tough, and the formula for doing so leaves Rose with just 61 games in his projection. That's what happens when a guy misses 109 regular-season games over two seasons. His winning percentage is tabbed at .607, down from the .679 he put up in his MVP season of 2010-11. ATH, like the rest of us, believes Rose has plenty to prove in the coming season.

8. Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1

Lowry has put up right around 8.0 WARP in each of the last three seasons. He's in his prime and remains underrated. Could some younger guards behind Lowry climb over him on the value ladder? Sure. There are a number of point guards with higher ceilings, but few who have demonstrated such a consistent level of play.

9. Ty Lawson, Denver Nuggets
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.1

Lawson is a classic example of the usage/efficiency nexus. His usage rate has increased in every season of his career, and his true shooting percentage has declined. Just as important, though, his assist rate has steadily climbed even as his turnover rate has dropped. This season, ATH sees all those various elements coming together as Lawson steps into his prime.

10. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.8

There is a school of thought that Lillard entered the NBA fully formed and, as outstanding as he was in his Rookie of the Year campaign, Lillard is as good now as he's ever going to be. This is the season we begin to find out if that's true. ATH projects that Lillard will take a significant step forward, with progress in shot selection and especially on the defensive end.

The next five: Kemba Walker, John Wall, Tony Parker, Jose Calderon, Ricky Rubio.

It's a point guard league right now, so there are some big names that slip outside the top 10. Rubio, who ranks 15th at 6.5 WARP, would rate as the No. 6 shooting guard, for example. So these are actually solid ratings for the up-and-coming Walker and Wall, even though they are both dinged for a combination of high usage rates and low shooting percentages.

Parker's standing represents a slip, but he'll turn 32 during the playoffs next season. That's a rough age for a guard historically speaking, and Parker's forecast sees a regression to what he was before his spike the last two seasons. He's still at 7.1 WARP, which put him in the top 10 of every other position except power forward.

Also: Rajon Rondo's existing injury limits his forecast to 48 games and a 4.7 WARP. It's an uncertain process with guys coming off serious injuries, but the one-year anniversary of his knee surgery isn't until Feb. 12. With a full projection of games played, Rondo's winning percentage would have landed him between Lawson and Lillard in the rankings.
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Old 07-29-2013, 05:12 PM   #9 (permalink)
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I assume why he's prolly so high up there was because of his two prior seasons before us which they are taking account of. Where some were calling him an all-star...? Rebounds, assists, get's to the line, scores, shoots a lot of 3s nd makes them, plays defense(Shows in the 'spg' stats too I guess). Can't say that about MOST point guards. He's a complete two-way PG, and he's very good on both ends. Per 36, he looks like top 10. (NOT SAYING HE IS.)

Last edited by Ataf; 07-29-2013 at 05:15 PM. Reason: Clarifying Lowry is good, not top 10 though.
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Old 07-29-2013, 05:45 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LX View Post
What I drew from what you drew from that, is that you have a need to see little value in just about anyone on the roster.

I will refrain from any conclusions myself until someone tells me what the fuck this stat is exactly.
I see some value in what we've got, but I don't see how any measure of ability of a player can rank Lowry over Parker. Wall should be above him too. That's the bare minimum imo.
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Old 07-29-2013, 05:48 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I don't see the point. I'll wait for the games, watch them, look at some numbers when they happen and go from there. Hopefully he'll end up looking like a nice point guard and win some games. Why anyone would want to project rankings of individual point guards based on projecting some special number attained from non-existent boxscores is a bit whacko. Am I missing something? I mean why? Just wait for some games to be played and diddle with real numbers to your hearts content.
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Old 07-29-2013, 05:56 PM   #12 (permalink)
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I'll say this though, Lowry playing at his best is really really good. He can do just about everything, even stuff a lot of other point guards can't do(like rebounding and lockdown D). Take that for what it's worth though. He only played like that for half a season in 11-12 and the first 3 games last season. Atleast we know he's very capable of it though, and not living off of potential. He's in his prime and is apparently in his best shape in a while.
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Old 07-29-2013, 05:58 PM   #13 (permalink)
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I feel Lowry at his best is exactly like Westbrook. Not as good of course but still awesome.
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Old 07-29-2013, 06:04 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DonMughal View Post
I'll say this though, Lowry playing at his best is really really good. He can do just about everything, even stuff a lot of other point guards can't do(like rebounding and lockdown D). Take that for what it's worth though. He only played like that for half a season in 11-12 and the first 3 games last season. Atleast we know he's very capable of it though, and not living off of potential. He's in his prime and is apparently in his best shape in a while.
He was also very good in 2010-11 as well. That was the season the league took notice of him.
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Old 07-29-2013, 06:04 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by tyguy94 View Post
I feel Lowry at his best is exactly like Westbrook. Not as good of course but still awesome.
Offensively I agree by a wide margin, defensively I would give it to KL.
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Old 07-29-2013, 06:26 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Will any of this matter if Casey finds a way to castrate Lowry? Lowry came out to start the year on fire. It was not just the injury that ultimately slowed him.
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Old 07-29-2013, 06:31 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by tyguy94 View Post
I feel Lowry at his best is exactly like Westbrook. Not as good of course but still awesome.
Exactly? Um, I would not go that far.



Last edited by Ammo; 07-29-2013 at 06:38 PM.
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Old 07-29-2013, 06:32 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Will any of this matter if Casey finds a way to castrate Lowry? Lowry came out to start the year on fire. It was not just the injury that ultimately slowed him.
Yeah, this for me was probably the main reason I was disappointed DC was kept on. If he doesn't allow him to play his game I have little confidence in the season ahead.
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Old 07-29-2013, 07:12 PM   #19 (permalink)
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What was this game that Casey did not allow him to play? He said he didn't want gambling for steals to such an extent, nor ruining the floor balance by going after too many offensive boards. Do we really want Lowry playing that game? I don't.

Lowry needs to bring his game in line with what works for the team as a whole. That should not be a huge problem now. Last season, with all of the juggling mish mash of lineups, and Lowry constantly adjusting to that as well as his injuries, it was a bit of a challenge. It's one big reason I think they can make a jump this season.

Trust me, Casey did not go out of his way to make Lowry less of a player. Or put it this way - if he did, and our new GM decided he should continue on anyway, then it doesn't say much for the new GM. Making excuses for players really needs to become a thing of the past for this team now. It's time for accountability and simply getting better as a team.
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Old 07-29-2013, 07:44 PM   #20 (permalink)
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None of us are on the inside, so we're making some assumptions, but it seemed like the switch to playing within the defensive system, which we all tend to agree with, coincided with him being a Calderon-light on offense while we were sitting here wondering who was going to put the other team's defense on their heels?

This is how some of us feel, and what we saw.

"Really, though, when it comes to Lowry the stats aren't really telling the whole story. Casey has seen fit to neuter Lowry considerably since his freewheeling (and highly productive) preseason games, effectively trying to turn him into a poor man's Calderon by forcing him into the unnatural role of a facilitator rather than into his natural role as scorer and playmaker. Even with the arrival of Rudy Gay, Lowry remains the team's best option at creating offense for himself and others, but more often than not he is tasked with entering the ball at the start of an offensive possession then staking out a spot behind the arc to wait for a kick-out.

While Lowry's penchant for wild passes and turnovers helped lead to his game being restricted by his coach, the pendulum has now swung so far the other way that Lowry is now left looking no more effective as a lead guard than decidedly second-rate options like Jeff Teague or Brandon Jennings – and far from his advertised role of Point Guard of the Future.

At 27-years-old and seven seasons into his NBA career, Kyle Lowry basically is who he is going to be as a player. He excels when he has free rein with the ball and is allowed to probe and attack at will. "

Chisholm: Looking at Lowry's struggles this season
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