Dwane Casey one of the best coaches in the NBA?

jeffb · 04-19-2012, 12:11 AM

Quote:

Obviously, there has to be a better way of accounting for the raw talent on a team beyond simply using the franchise's previous W-L. And that's where Daniel Myers' Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus comes in. In essence, ASPM is a boxscore-based, more stable version of Regularized Plus/Minus that is probably the most predictive all-in-one advanced box-score stat out there right now. Denominated in efficiency differential, ASPM is ideal for projecting a team's performance via a minute-weighted average of the individual ratings of its players.

Comparing the weighted average of their actual 2012 ASPMs to that expected differential, then, provides a measure of how much a team (and a coach) exceeded expectations, given the amount of talent on his roster.

Basketball Prospectus | Coach of the Year

Quote:

So by this metric, here is a truer ranking of the league's most excellent coaches:

Coach Tm Proj Actual Diff
----------------------------------------------------
Monty Williams NOH -9.32 -3.61 5.71
Tyrone Corbin UTA -4.79 0.24 5.04
Larry Drew ATL -2.71 2.27 4.98
Gregg Popovich SAS 1.85 6.62 4.77
Frank Vogel IND -0.72 3.06 3.77
Tom Thibodeau CHI 4.78 7.85 3.07
Rick Adelman MIN -4.43 -1.70 2.74
Dwane Casey TOR -6.74 -4.06 2.67
Scott Brooks OKC 4.20 6.87 2.67
Doug Collins PHI 1.79 4.20 2.41
Kevin McHale HOU -1.61 0.74 2.35
George Karl DEN 0.25 2.30 2.05
Alvin Gentry PHO -1.44 0.58 2.02
D'Antoni/Woodson NYK 0.97 2.70 1.73
Rick Carlisle DAL 0.38 1.85 1.47
Mark Jackson GSW -3.69 -3.06 0.64
Saunders/Wittman WAS -7.51 -7.00 0.51
Erik Spoelstra MIA 6.41 6.86 0.45
Lionel Hollins MEM 1.89 2.29 0.40
Byron Scott CLE -7.73 -7.45 0.28
Scott Skiles MIL 0.27 0.24 -0.04
Lawrence Frank DET -5.31 -5.53 -0.22
Vinny Del Negro LAC 3.84 3.16 -0.68
Westphal/Smart SAC -4.81 -5.79 -0.99
McMillan/Canales POR 1.53 0.54 -1.00
Doc Rivers BOS 3.56 2.11 -1.45
Avery Johnson NJN -3.82 -6.03 -2.21
Stan Van Gundy ORL 4.25 1.53 -2.72
Mike Brown LAL 5.99 2.31 -3.68
Paul Silas CHA -7.30 -14.28 -6.97

pzabby · 04-19-2012, 12:37 PM

This should somehow account for the outliers. For example i dont think no coach should be first

moremilk · 04-19-2012, 01:07 PM

also injuries and how long they've coached a team, especially with a short training camp
there's no way Brown and SVG are two of the worst 3 coaches in the league, that's absurd

moremilk · 04-19-2012, 01:09 PM

also, I think coach of the year is one of the most stupid award ever
not only it implies that a great coach one year will somehow become less good the next, but it also ignores the fact that the work of a coach is not a year by year thing. Teams are built over years and you can't arbitrarily separate one year from the whole ensemble.

Toby · 04-19-2012, 08:48 PM

I haven't seen enough Raptor games to give an opinion on Coach Casey. I've only seen one, vs. the Blazers of course, and I remeber you guys having a motivated push in the 4th quarter to make it a somewhat close game. It almost looked like NBA basketball, and that's saying a lot in a Blazers vs. Raptors matchup.

Don Vito · 04-19-2012, 08:55 PM

Lol @ Mike Brown.

Blaze · 04-19-2012, 11:27 PM

If greg popovich isnt first, its bullshit plain and simple

Someguy again · 04-19-2012, 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moremilk

also, I think coach of the year is one of the most stupid award ever
not only it implies that a great coach one year will somehow become less good the next, but it also ignores the fact that the work of a coach is not a year by year thing. Teams are built over years and you can't arbitrarily separate one year from the whole ensemble.

bang on statement, however what if it's a coach that comes in and just changes everything and exceeds expectations to a certain extent? maybe the coach of the year award should go to new coaches. but then, to argue against my point, interim coaches could be placed in a terrible spot and are doomed to fail.

bjjs · 04-19-2012, 11:46 PM

Coach's don't have to perform? They don't have bad years and good years? Sometimes exceptional years worthy of recognition? Really?

Blaze · 04-20-2012, 01:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toby

I haven't seen enough Raptor games to give an opinion on Coach Casey. I've only seen one, vs. the Blazers of course, and I remeber you guys having a motivated push in the 4th quarter to make it a somewhat close game. It almost looked like NBA basketball, and that's saying a lot in a Blazers vs. Raptors matchup.

I assumed you were both a Raptor and Trailblazer fan. If you don't mind, I'd like to know why your on this board, it can't be for the stimulating intellectual discussion.

b55bgc · 04-20-2012, 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blaze

I assumed you were both a Raptor and Trailblazer fan. If you don't mind, I'd like to know why your on this board, it can't be for the stimulating intellectual discussion.

Its obviously because of Cuda. Sheesh.

DocHoliday99 · 04-20-2012, 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by b55bgc

Its obviously because of Cuda. Sheesh.

moremilk · 04-20-2012, 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bjjs

Coach's don't have to perform? They don't have bad years and good years? Sometimes exceptional years worthy of recognition? Really?

absolutely, unlike playing, coaching is basically intelect, knowledge of the game and hard work and while variations can occur in the amount of work a coach puts in, I have a hard time believing most great coaches don't go 100% year in and year out. Occasionally it can happen, but that's the exception, not the rule. As far as the other two factors, they can't possible vary (downwards) except for some older coaches who don't stay up to speed with recent developments, but that's a trend that happens over decades, not year to year.

Can anybody make an argument that thibodeau is less smart, or knows less about the game this year than the last? Or that he worked less hard?

bjjs · 04-20-2012, 08:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moremilk

Can anybody make an argument that thibodeau is less smart, or knows less about the game this year than the last? Or that he worked less hard?

I don't get the connection. So because coaches do not lose knowledge, there shouldn't be coach of the year award?

Why isn't it possible for their performance to vary year to year?

I don't see how the argument only applies to coaches.

They perform just like players.

They have bad games and good games just like players.

rapsmannn · 04-21-2012, 06:05 AM

casey already is my favorite all time raptor coach, don't know if thats bad or good,

this team is as bad as the one we had in in 05 before we drafted andrea bargnani

love what he has done with andrea, i just hope he'll realize jose needs to go

JoeyJoJo Shabbadu · 04-21-2012, 11:06 AM

SVG and Doc Rivers are not bad coaches. So....

Superjudge · 04-21-2012, 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rapsmannn

love what he has done with andrea, i just hope he'll realize jose needs to go

I know eh??? I can't believe that he can't see what you can.... it's amazing.

jeffb · 04-21-2012, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Superjudge

I know eh??? I can't believe that he can't see what you can.... it's amazing.

Who says he doesn't see it? He has said he wants players with motors and that certainly doesn't describe OCHO. Oh and there is that little thing called defense, which Jose still has trouble with.

Superjudge · 04-21-2012, 01:40 PM

I don't think you have a clue what a "motor" is. Jose has the best :motor" on that team...a motor is intensity and effort.

JoeyJoJo Shabbadu · 04-21-2012, 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Superjudge

I don't think you have a clue what a "motor" is. Jose has the best :motor" on that team...a motor is intensity and effort.

Motor means "compete, will, effort". They use the term motor because they can't say no spine, no drive, lazy without it sounding terrible.

04-19-2012, 11:46 PM	#9 (permalink)
bjjs a baller Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 8,660 Representing:	Coach's don't have to perform? They don't have bad years and good years? Sometimes exceptional years worthy of recognition? Really? Last edited by bjjs; 04-20-2012 at 12:07 AM.

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04-19-2012, 12:37 PM	#2 (permalink)
pzabby and a 1, and a 2, and a 1,2,3,4! Senior Member Join Date: May 2010 Location: toronto Posts: 7,055 Representing:	This should somehow account for the outliers. For example i dont think no coach should be first

04-19-2012, 01:07 PM	#3 (permalink)
moremilk whatever Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: toronto Posts: 10,417 Representing:	also injuries and how long they've coached a team, especially with a short training camp there's no way Brown and SVG are two of the worst 3 coaches in the league, that's absurd

04-19-2012, 01:09 PM	#4 (permalink)
moremilk whatever Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: toronto Posts: 10,417 Representing:	also, I think coach of the year is one of the most stupid award ever not only it implies that a great coach one year will somehow become less good the next, but it also ignores the fact that the work of a coach is not a year by year thing. Teams are built over years and you can't arbitrarily separate one year from the whole ensemble.

04-19-2012, 08:48 PM	#5 (permalink)
Toby a nacho hound Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: South of Portland, home of the Blazers Posts: 6,064 Representing:	I haven't seen enough Raptor games to give an opinion on Coach Casey. I've only seen one, vs. the Blazers of course, and I remeber you guys having a motivated push in the 4th quarter to make it a somewhat close game. It almost looked like NBA basketball, and that's saying a lot in a Blazers vs. Raptors matchup.

04-19-2012, 08:55 PM	#6 (permalink)
Don Vito raptor jesus Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 3,907 Representing:	Lol @ Mike Brown.

04-19-2012, 11:27 PM	#7 (permalink)
Blaze is waiting Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,253 Representing:	If greg popovich isnt first, its bullshit plain and simple

04-21-2012, 06:05 AM	#15 (permalink)
rapsmannn hopefully we use our draft pick this year, let's not miss out this years Rodney hood Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,093 Representing:	casey already is my favorite all time raptor coach, don't know if thats bad or good, this team is as bad as the one we had in in 05 before we drafted andrea bargnani love what he has done with andrea, i just hope he'll realize jose needs to go

04-21-2012, 11:06 AM	#16 (permalink)
JoeyJoJo Shabbadu payin Dwyane Wade Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 6,321 Representing:	SVG and Doc Rivers are not bad coaches. So....

04-21-2012, 01:40 PM	#19 (permalink)
Superjudge is pounding the rock! Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 17,371 Representing:	I don't think you have a clue what a "motor" is. Jose has the best :motor" on that team...a motor is intensity and effort.