Dwane Casey one of the best coaches in the NBA?
Old 04-19-2012, 01:11 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Obviously, there has to be a better way of accounting for the raw talent on a team beyond simply using the franchise's previous W-L. And that's where Daniel Myers' Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus comes in. In essence, ASPM is a boxscore-based, more stable version of Regularized Plus/Minus that is probably the most predictive all-in-one advanced box-score stat out there right now. Denominated in efficiency differential, ASPM is ideal for projecting a team's performance via a minute-weighted average of the individual ratings of its players.

Comparing the weighted average of their actual 2012 ASPMs to that expected differential, then, provides a measure of how much a team (and a coach) exceeded expectations, given the amount of talent on his roster.

Basketball Prospectus | Coach of the Year

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So by this metric, here is a truer ranking of the league's most excellent coaches:

Coach Tm Proj Actual Diff
----------------------------------------------------
Monty Williams NOH -9.32 -3.61 5.71
Tyrone Corbin UTA -4.79 0.24 5.04
Larry Drew ATL -2.71 2.27 4.98
Gregg Popovich SAS 1.85 6.62 4.77
Frank Vogel IND -0.72 3.06 3.77
Tom Thibodeau CHI 4.78 7.85 3.07
Rick Adelman MIN -4.43 -1.70 2.74
Dwane Casey TOR -6.74 -4.06 2.67
Scott Brooks OKC 4.20 6.87 2.67
Doug Collins PHI 1.79 4.20 2.41
Kevin McHale HOU -1.61 0.74 2.35
George Karl DEN 0.25 2.30 2.05
Alvin Gentry PHO -1.44 0.58 2.02
D'Antoni/Woodson NYK 0.97 2.70 1.73
Rick Carlisle DAL 0.38 1.85 1.47
Mark Jackson GSW -3.69 -3.06 0.64
Saunders/Wittman WAS -7.51 -7.00 0.51
Erik Spoelstra MIA 6.41 6.86 0.45
Lionel Hollins MEM 1.89 2.29 0.40
Byron Scott CLE -7.73 -7.45 0.28
Scott Skiles MIL 0.27 0.24 -0.04
Lawrence Frank DET -5.31 -5.53 -0.22
Vinny Del Negro LAC 3.84 3.16 -0.68
Westphal/Smart SAC -4.81 -5.79 -0.99
McMillan/Canales POR 1.53 0.54 -1.00
Doc Rivers BOS 3.56 2.11 -1.45
Avery Johnson NJN -3.82 -6.03 -2.21
Stan Van Gundy ORL 4.25 1.53 -2.72
Mike Brown LAL 5.99 2.31 -3.68
Paul Silas CHA -7.30 -14.28 -6.97
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Old 04-19-2012, 01:37 PM   #2 (permalink)
and a 1, and a 2, and a 1,2,3,4!

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This should somehow account for the outliers. For example i dont think no coach should be first
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Old 04-19-2012, 02:07 PM   #3 (permalink)
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also injuries and how long they've coached a team, especially with a short training camp
there's no way Brown and SVG are two of the worst 3 coaches in the league, that's absurd
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Old 04-19-2012, 02:09 PM   #4 (permalink)
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also, I think coach of the year is one of the most stupid award ever
not only it implies that a great coach one year will somehow become less good the next, but it also ignores the fact that the work of a coach is not a year by year thing. Teams are built over years and you can't arbitrarily separate one year from the whole ensemble.
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Old 04-19-2012, 09:48 PM   #5 (permalink)
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I haven't seen enough Raptor games to give an opinion on Coach Casey. I've only seen one, vs. the Blazers of course, and I remeber you guys having a motivated push in the 4th quarter to make it a somewhat close game. It almost looked like NBA basketball, and that's saying a lot in a Blazers vs. Raptors matchup.
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Old 04-19-2012, 09:55 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Lol @ Mike Brown.

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Old 04-20-2012, 12:27 AM   #7 (permalink)
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If greg popovich isnt first, its bullshit plain and simple
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Old 04-20-2012, 12:34 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by moremilk View Post
also, I think coach of the year is one of the most stupid award ever
not only it implies that a great coach one year will somehow become less good the next, but it also ignores the fact that the work of a coach is not a year by year thing. Teams are built over years and you can't arbitrarily separate one year from the whole ensemble.
bang on statement, however what if it's a coach that comes in and just changes everything and exceeds expectations to a certain extent? maybe the coach of the year award should go to new coaches. but then, to argue against my point, interim coaches could be placed in a terrible spot and are doomed to fail.
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Old 04-20-2012, 12:46 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Coach's don't have to perform? They don't have bad years and good years? Sometimes exceptional years worthy of recognition? Really?

Last edited by bjjs; 04-20-2012 at 01:07 AM.
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Old 04-20-2012, 02:07 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Toby View Post
I haven't seen enough Raptor games to give an opinion on Coach Casey. I've only seen one, vs. the Blazers of course, and I remeber you guys having a motivated push in the 4th quarter to make it a somewhat close game. It almost looked like NBA basketball, and that's saying a lot in a Blazers vs. Raptors matchup.
I assumed you were both a Raptor and Trailblazer fan. If you don't mind, I'd like to know why your on this board, it can't be for the stimulating intellectual discussion.
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Old 04-20-2012, 09:55 AM   #11 (permalink)
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I assumed you were both a Raptor and Trailblazer fan. If you don't mind, I'd like to know why your on this board, it can't be for the stimulating intellectual discussion.
Its obviously because of Cuda. Sheesh.
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Old 04-20-2012, 10:29 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Its obviously because of Cuda. Sheesh.
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Old 04-20-2012, 01:18 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Coach's don't have to perform? They don't have bad years and good years? Sometimes exceptional years worthy of recognition? Really?
absolutely, unlike playing, coaching is basically intelect, knowledge of the game and hard work and while variations can occur in the amount of work a coach puts in, I have a hard time believing most great coaches don't go 100% year in and year out. Occasionally it can happen, but that's the exception, not the rule. As far as the other two factors, they can't possible vary (downwards) except for some older coaches who don't stay up to speed with recent developments, but that's a trend that happens over decades, not year to year.

Can anybody make an argument that thibodeau is less smart, or knows less about the game this year than the last? Or that he worked less hard?
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Old 04-20-2012, 09:34 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Can anybody make an argument that thibodeau is less smart, or knows less about the game this year than the last? Or that he worked less hard?
I don't get the connection. So because coaches do not lose knowledge, there shouldn't be coach of the year award?

Why isn't it possible for their performance to vary year to year?

I don't see how the argument only applies to coaches.

They perform just like players.

They have bad games and good games just like players.
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Old 04-21-2012, 07:05 AM   #15 (permalink)
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casey already is my favorite all time raptor coach, don't know if thats bad or good,

this team is as bad as the one we had in in 05 before we drafted andrea bargnani

love what he has done with andrea, i just hope he'll realize jose needs to go
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Old 04-21-2012, 12:06 PM   #16 (permalink)
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SVG and Doc Rivers are not bad coaches. So....
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Old 04-21-2012, 02:04 PM   #17 (permalink)
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love what he has done with andrea, i just hope he'll realize jose needs to go
I know eh??? I can't believe that he can't see what you can.... it's amazing.
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Old 04-21-2012, 02:23 PM   #18 (permalink)
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I know eh??? I can't believe that he can't see what you can.... it's amazing.
Who says he doesn't see it? He has said he wants players with motors and that certainly doesn't describe OCHO. Oh and there is that little thing called defense, which Jose still has trouble with.
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Old 04-21-2012, 02:40 PM   #19 (permalink)
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I don't think you have a clue what a "motor" is. Jose has the best :motor" on that team...a motor is intensity and effort.
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Old 04-21-2012, 05:48 PM   #20 (permalink)
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I don't think you have a clue what a "motor" is. Jose has the best :motor" on that team...a motor is intensity and effort.
Motor means "compete, will, effort". They use the term motor because they can't say no spine, no drive, lazy without it sounding terrible.
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