Dino Nation Blog: Raptor Moneyball
Old 07-08-2009, 01:40 PM   #1 (permalink)
convinced that Raptors fans are only happy when they're unhappy.

Retired Administrator
 
Dr. J. Naismith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Almonte
Posts: 10,245
Representing:
Default Dino Nation Blog: Raptor Moneyball



Quote:
Originally Posted by James Borbath
The NBA Cap has been announce and it is indeed lower. 57.7 Million with the all important tax threshold number at 69.92. Also news that the NBA warns this is only the tip of the iceberg? ESPN paints the picture for us. They conclude that this may make the Raptors chances of keeping Chris Bosh increase. I am not sure if they made that statement before or after they heard about this little number. 5 years and 50 million but we are not talking Hedo. We are talking a contract extension for not Bosh but Bargnani. To say it make my stomach do flip flops over this news is close to accurate. I mean a good half season or 3/4 of a season gets you 50 million bucks? What is next a 3 year 32 million dollar deal for Joey Graham? I joke about that, but this is no joking matter to me.

Why is Bryan spending all this money with a cap about to take a nose dive. I am sorry but I fail to see the logic. I understand you lock up Bargnani for a reasonable rate for a long time I get that. However given the dropping cap and the fact Bargnani realistically has not had back to back solid seasons yet in his NBA career. You add this to the 53 million for Hedo and the 45 + they spent on Jose. If the plan is to keep Chris Bosh it sure isn't looking that way. Where is the money to resign him? Also what else could you afford if you are able to resign him. If the drops in the ESPN Article are any where close to accurate this makes it seem bleak that Bosh could re-sign and the Raptors be competitive.

This is all under the assumption that MLSE will stick to the commitment the have always had to stay below the tax threshold which will be dropping at that same alarming rate. If the Raptors do have a long term plan that involves not being concerned with that tax threshold I would have no issue with Hedo's deal or the extension to Andrea. Both are risky to some degree but I could live with it. However does anyone seriously expect MLSE to have such a 180 in policy and suddenly go for broke. Not in the literal sense but risk a small amount of their bottom line to do this? I have no confidence or info to suggest that they would.

Some fans are just seeing the short term picture and not the long term one in my view. Let me but it in some kind of context. If you became aware that the company you were working for planned to cut jobs in the next 2 years what would you do? Would you go out and buy a new car, new house and add to you stock portfolio? Most would save out of fear they may lose there job or lose hours. So why would the Raptors go on a spending spree when they can see that their cap and budget are heading down. It does not make any sense.

Raptors better win this season because this maybe the last chance to do so in a long time unless there is some cosmic shift in the NBA Cap or the thinking at MLSE. I admit that I took economics from my high school football coach. However I don't think you need to have a vast economic background to understand that Raptors are taking some serious long term risk.

Some may conclude that Bryan Colangelo is already hard at work planing for the post Bosh era. I don't want to believe this fact but the numbers are painting a picture that sure suggests it. About the only thing that is making me think positive about the Raps is Demar Derozan. This kid was Tweeting about practice yesterday...Not a game...No Practice. Now with all due respect to AI, when a young kid is putting in work like this it gets me excited about his future. Here is hoping that Demar is rip down rims in Vegas starting Friday.

Still have yet to hear on a Hedo presser. When it goes down I will set up a live blog. Last but not least the Dallas and Marion Sign and Trade has a sticking point as you might of heard. The Mavs don't want Marcus Banks. Is Banks truly the one guy in the league that no one truly wants. He gets passed around like he has the plague. You can't help but feel bad for him.

Not in the same way you would for Michael Jackson's little girl yesterday which was truly so sad. On a much smaller stage, at about 2 years older, I spoke at my own father's funeral. The courage in that little girl to do that is far greater than any NBA player. Stuff like that puts all this basketball talk, good, bad or indifferent into prospective. I am still upset about all of this but have it in the proper prospective.
Source - Dino Nation Blog: Raptor Moneyball
Dr. J. Naismith is offline   Boss Key Wife Key Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2009, 01:52 PM   #2 (permalink)
pensive

feat. Otto Neurath
 
Ligeia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 2,087
Representing:
Default

Assuming:

Bosh 2010 salary - 18 million
Bargnani 2010 salary - 9 million
Turkoglu 2010 salary - 10 million
Calderon 2010 salary - 8 million
DeRozan 2010 salary - 2 million

The starting 5 would take up 47 million of the $50-$53 million cap. Ukic, Evans, Banks, and Humphries take up another $14.5 million. Add another draft pick for around $1.5 million That brings the salary up to $63 million for 10 players. The other two players (to hit the minimum of 12) could be signed using the MLE (5.7 million) and/or minimum contracts. The expected luxury tax line would be, in a best case scenario, $65 million, and in a worst case scenario would be $61 million.

In my opinion, we are not really in that bad of a financial position, especially compared to other teams in the league. That's the nice thing about being below the cap this year: we have less flexibility today (limited in signing options), but more down the road (lots of talent with more signing options in the future).
Ligeia is offline   Boss Key Wife Key Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2009, 02:24 PM   #3 (permalink)
is back baby

Large and in charge
 
Snooch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: All up in there
Posts: 8,160
Representing:
Default

Assuming Bosh resigns here or isnt traded.
Snooch is offline   Boss Key Wife Key Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2009, 02:46 PM   #4 (permalink)
pensive

feat. Otto Neurath
 
Ligeia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 2,087
Representing:
Default

If Bosh is not signed or sign-and-traded, then the Raptors would fall below the cap again and would only have $2,000,000 to spend (at best). That would certainly be a bad situation, unless Bargnani is able to really expand his game this season.
Ligeia is offline   Boss Key Wife Key Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-2009, 03:14 PM   #5 (permalink)
LX
synapse jelly

In the Paint


 
LX's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Toronto
Posts: 28,719
Representing:
Default

If I was working for a company that appeared to have a future while a lot of the competition was in panic mode, then I would feel pretty good to be where I'm at.
LX is online now   Boss Key Wife Key Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Dino Nation Blog: Why B.C Is The Man Dr. J. Naismith Toronto Raptors 68 08-12-2009 10:06 AM
Dino Nation Blog: August Pot Luck Blog Dr. J. Naismith Toronto Raptors 10 08-03-2009 06:06 PM
Dino Nation Blog: Pasta For 2? Dr. J. Naismith Toronto Raptors 2 07-30-2009 08:08 PM
Dino Nation Blog: Welcome To The Most Important Off-Season In Raptor History? Dr. J. Naismith Toronto Raptors 21 06-17-2009 05:44 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:38 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.1
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright RaptorsForum.com 2005-2011

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24