Comparing Gay and DeRozan to the rest of the league - Page 2
Old 07-26-2013, 10:36 AM   #21 (permalink)
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Oh my bad I didn't really look at those numbers closely, I'm not that much of a stats guy.

But let's say Gay's eye operation (or whatever it was) and a little training "fixes" those low shooting percentages, maybe he could average 22 and 6 (not that much of a stretch if you ask me), and let's say Demar could average 21 and 5 at decent percentages.

Now if all this takes place in an attractive and efficient offense which attracts leaguewide attention and recognition (we saw the first signs of that last season), and we have a winning record, than yes Rudy and Demar might stand a chance at the ASG.

But they'll have plenty of competition I won't argue with that...
Here's the thing - DeRozan avaraging 21 and 5 on decent percentages seems a little unlikely. Like I said with Gay, all he has to do is return to his career bests to have a shot, assuming the team is winning, but that's not necessarily easy. Still, he's got a shot.

DeMar though... He's never averaged more than 18 points per game. He averaged 19 per game after the Gay trade. Only in those last 12 games that Jeff referenced did he average 21 points per game - so, possible, but a very small sample size.

5 rebounds, though? Highest yet is 3.9, and he's stagnated or gotten worse in his rebounding rates since his rookie year. And the worst bit is, during the 12 game sample where he is superhuman on offense, it got even worse, clocking in at 3.2 rebounds per game.

And decent percentages is a real stretch for him. His effective FG% hasn't broken .500 since his rookie season, and has been trending downward (except for a small uptick this year). Again, the only hope for him here seems to be that stretch of 12 games, where he actually shot 50% from the field (which is great) and 45% from 3 (which is amazing). Even using just his time since the Gay trade, you don't see any improvement - only in the small sample do you see it.

So with Gay, sure, there's a chance. With DeMar, you'd have to see him sustain and even improve upon some numbers from the best 12 game stretch of his career over the course of 82 games, something he has never even approached before, even in a sample as small as half a season.
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Old 07-26-2013, 11:08 AM   #22 (permalink)
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Here's the thing - DeRozan avaraging 21 and 5 on decent percentages seems a little unlikely. Like I said with Gay, all he has to do is return to his career bests to have a shot, assuming the team is winning, but that's not necessarily easy. Still, he's got a shot.

DeMar though... He's never averaged more than 18 points per game. He averaged 19 per game after the Gay trade. Only in those last 12 games that Jeff referenced did he average 21 points per game - so, possible, but a very small sample size.

5 rebounds, though? Highest yet is 3.9, and he's stagnated or gotten worse in his rebounding rates since his rookie year. And the worst bit is, during the 12 game sample where he is superhuman on offense, it got even worse, clocking in at 3.2 rebounds per game.

And decent percentages is a real stretch for him. His effective FG% hasn't broken .500 since his rookie season, and has been trending downward (except for a small uptick this year). Again, the only hope for him here seems to be that stretch of 12 games, where he actually shot 50% from the field (which is great) and 45% from 3 (which is amazing). Even using just his time since the Gay trade, you don't see any improvement - only in the small sample do you see it.

So with Gay, sure, there's a chance. With DeMar, you'd have to see him sustain and even improve upon some numbers from the best 12 game stretch of his career over the course of 82 games, something he has never even approached before, even in a sample as small as half a season.
Okay I'll agree with you, and don't get me wrong, having 1 AllStar on the roster would be a great start. Maybe JV the year after that. Above all I'm very anxious for the season to start! Hell, Gay or Derozan might not even be Raptors by the AS break!!! :O
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Old 07-26-2013, 12:33 PM   #23 (permalink)
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He "excels" at the midrange jumper.

From 10-23 feet, he shoots 40%. From 10-15 feet, 40%. From 16-23 feet, obviously, 40%. That's 0.8 points per shot. That's an ORTG of 80. The worst team offense in the league has an ORTG of 100.

That's 147th in the league in 10-15 foot jump shot %. 95th in the league in 16-23 foot jump shot %.

You know what he excels at? TAKING long inefficient jump shots. 2nd in the league in 16-23 foot jumpers per game (with a worse percentage than all but 2 of the top 16). 25th in the league in 10-15 foot jumpers per game (only 5 of those 24 above him shot worse from there).

Yay, DeMar!
so eloquently put. This team needs to get away with settling for what the defense gives us.
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Old 07-26-2013, 01:44 PM   #24 (permalink)
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Overall, they would rank 14th on that list, just behind Golden State’s starters (Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes) and Houston’s starters (James Harden and Chandler Parsons).
Problem I have is that after GS's players, they have Curry and after Houstons players, they have Howard. Who's our third ace? Val (maybe, but not yet) Lowery? We are a long way peoples. Hang in there.
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Old 07-29-2013, 02:51 AM   #25 (permalink)
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A graph of the top 30 Usage% players compared to their TS%.



I dunno if its on topic but this thread is partly about Rudy who happens to be 2nd worst on this graph...
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Old 07-29-2013, 02:56 AM   #26 (permalink)
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A graph of the top 30 Usage% players compared to their TS%.



I dunno if its on topic but this thread is partly about Rudy who happens to be 2nd worst on this graph...
If his eye condition was as bad as he says, I'll let it pass. The seasons over, on to the next one
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Old 07-29-2013, 08:01 AM   #27 (permalink)
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It definitely reflects part of the season that I really hated him. But just as the ugliest part of the season shouldn't really define him, I don't think this graph should either. The team did start to work well together offensively, with fewer isos and bad shots, and in that time he looked much better than this represents. I have to think he is capable of sticking to a good role within the offense after settling in fully here. If not, I'd say that would be one of the first shoes to drop, in terms of the direction the team takes, and the moves that get made.
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Old 07-29-2013, 08:36 AM   #28 (permalink)
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It definitely reflects part of the season that I really hated him. But just as the ugliest part of the season shouldn't really define him, I don't think this graph should either. The team did start to work well together offensively, with fewer isos and bad shots, and in that time he looked much better than this represents. I have to think he is capable of sticking to a good role within the offense after settling in fully here. If not, I'd say that would be one of the first shoes to drop, in terms of the direction the team takes, and the moves that get made.
In those last 12 games (a representative set first brought up by JeffB if I recall correctly, regarding DeRozan's strong play at the end of the year) he did have a TS% of .574, in line with where Parker and Curry are on the graph vertically, and a usage of 27.6% (about the same as his full season usage). So that's very promising, but small sample size...

If you look back to the all-star break, it is closer to .532 (just below that mean line), but that includes his bad play right before his mid-March injury. If you pick up the season right after he returned in March, he posted a TS% of .576 (just as good as his end of season 12 game mark) over 17 games, with a usage of 28.3%, above what he usually has. That would put him in almost the exact same spot on the chart as Tony Parker. Not bad.

Still, small sample size, but if he can replicate that, this team will be better than I've been expecting. If he can somehow improve upon it, with better familiarity with teammates and better vision, then there might be something worth talking about this year. Would be pleasantly surprised.
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Old 07-29-2013, 09:55 AM   #29 (permalink)
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We have two AllStar worthy players in Gay and DD, how many teams can say that?
And the half empty side is; we have 2 players getting paid 28 million that aren't as good as Klay Thompson and a Rookie. How many teams can say that?
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Old 07-29-2013, 10:07 AM   #30 (permalink)
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And the half empty side is; we have 2 players getting paid 28 million that aren't as good as Klay Thompson and a Rookie. How many teams can say that?
Yup. Ppl always forget about that thing called salary. I find it hilarious when ppl say s**t like it's not my money. There's a thing called a cap and having players who produce for a decent amount of money. That's also part of the reason why draft picks are valued so highly.
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Old 07-29-2013, 10:20 AM   #31 (permalink)
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There's no doubt that Rudy's salary will have to be brought in line with reality if he is going to stay. And draft picks will still be made regardless.
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Old 07-29-2013, 10:29 AM   #32 (permalink)
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There's no doubt that Rudy's salary will have to be brought in line with reality if he is going to stay. And draft picks will still be made regardless.
If Rudy plays well to start the year, and the team is winning, and proves worth keeping together, I'd be a big fan of giving Rudy an opt-in extension, where he's make his 19 M next year and take 12M per year afterwards for a couple years for both long term security and the benefit of the big payday up front.

And if not, we blow it up. The picture is seeming more and more black and white, which I like. Much better than the what-the-heck-might-BC-do guessing game of each season.
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Old 07-29-2013, 10:41 AM   #33 (permalink)
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If Rudy plays well to start the year, and the team is winning, and proves worth keeping together, I'd be a big fan of giving Rudy an opt-in extension, where he's make his 19 M next year and take 12M per year afterwards for a couple years for both long term security and the benefit of the big payday up front.

And if not, we blow it up. The picture is seeming more and more black and white, which I like. Much better than the what-the-heck-might-BC-do guessing game of each season.
Yep. There appears to be a course set. And to be fair, BC did help with that to a good extent, but it's still better to see much of his deadwood falling away from this roster, a better "focus" on how this team will be defined in the short and long term, and a greater sense of trust in terms of staying the course.
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Old 07-29-2013, 10:46 AM   #34 (permalink)
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how gay and derozan complement one another going forward will be a big thing to look for too. they're similar players but the potential to play off one another is there if they can start hitting the outside shot with some consistency. that fact, combined with JV's continued progress will go a long way towards winning consistently.
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Old 07-29-2013, 10:49 AM   #35 (permalink)
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Yep. There appears to be a course set. And to be fair, BC did help with that to a good extent, but it's still better to see much of his deadwood falling away from this roster, a better "focus" on how this team will be defined in the short and long term, and a greater sense of trust in terms of staying the course.
The thing I love the most with what MU is doing is that he's left flexibility for himself to veer the course if one of those 'big deals' comes along.
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Old 07-29-2013, 10:50 AM   #36 (permalink)
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how gay and derozan complement one another going forward will be a big thing to look for too. they're similar players but the potential to play off one another is there if they can start hitting the outside shot with some consistency. that fact, combined with JV's continued progress will go a long way towards winning consistently.
Yeah, so much rides on Gay returning to his previously acceptable distance percentages, and on DeRozan improving. So much is up in the air. I personally slant to pessimism in this, but I can see the potential, and why Ujiri wants to at least run this team out for a month or two instead of taking deals now at what could be these players' lowest value.
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Old 07-29-2013, 10:56 AM   #37 (permalink)
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Yeah, so much rides on Gay returning to his previously acceptable distance percentages, and on DeRozan improving. So much is up in the air. I personally slant to pessimism in this, but I can see the potential, and why Ujiri wants to at least run this team out for a month or two instead of taking deals now at what could be these players' lowest value.
+1
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Old 07-29-2013, 11:23 AM   #38 (permalink)
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The thing I love the most with what MU is doing is that he's left flexibility for himself to veer the course if one of those 'big deals' comes along.
I would say that is the course that has been set. There is a core in place, but there isn't much doubt that it could be strengthened, and that there is still some question as to which parts of the current core will stick. At the same time the parts that don't stick are assets that can get help strengthen that core with timely maneuvering.
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Old 07-29-2013, 11:39 AM   #39 (permalink)
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I would say that is the course that has been set. There is a core in place, but there isn't much doubt that it could be strengthened, and that there is still some question as to which parts of the current core will stick. At the same time the parts that don't stick are assets that can get help strengthen that core with timely maneuvering.
That timely maneuvering is my concern going into the season.

If Gay proves worth keeping, and Lowry proves worth keeping, you've got to make sure you keep them. The risk of them walking for nothing HAS to be considered when managing those assets. So if Gay doesn't agree to an extension of his contract, I don't want him finishing the year here. Maybe he'd re-sign as a UFA, maybe he'd walk. I don't like the risk. Lowry's even worse a situation - there's no way he accepts an extension due to the limitations it would put on him salary-wise. So if you want to keep him at all, you have to accept the risk of allowing him to try free agency.

Of course, all that depends on how they play this season. But even in the best case (in terms of their performance), you leave a lot to be desired in terms of control if you have to go into free agency hoping to re-sign them.

The rest of the team is fairly controllable in terms of assets - Amir is locked in for a couple years, DeMar for a while, Ross and JV on rookie scale contracts. So that's good. But Gay and Lowry are two BIG pieces, and the uncertainty with them is what has me most on edge this year.
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Old 07-29-2013, 12:34 PM   #40 (permalink)
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Yep. Lowry and Gay is where Masai earns his pay. I'm not sure either absolutely has to be kept if they prove to be valuable. I expect to give up something to get something. It's going to be all about seeing the forest and the trees and being smart for both the long and short term.
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