Chisholm: Why the Raps Should Not Go After Lin
Old 05-21-2012, 07:34 PM   #1 (permalink)
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By now, you've probably heard the rumor about the Toronto Raptors having an interest in pursuing New York's Jeremy*Lin this summer. You've heard his agent put doubt in the minds of Knicks fans about Lin's inevitable return to Madison Square Garden. You've heard that 'sources' have confirmed Toronto's interest in the breakout guard and no doubt by now you've formed an opinion of Lin's fit in Toronto's future. All things being equal, though, I don't personally understand the interest.

That isn't a sleight to Lin. While I remained a skeptic for much of his 25-game pre-injury run this season as a starter with the Knicks, he clearly demonstrated that he has a future in the NBA and may well have a very good one if he keeps improving. However, there are several other factors at work here that make me question the advisability of going after Lin in free agency this summer, but no factor looms larger than Toronto's own free agent guard, Jerryd*Bayless.

First, some stats. Here are Lin's numbers as a starter this year for the Knicks:

25 games, 18.2 ppg, 7.7 apg, 4.7 TOpg, 3.7 rpg, .445 FG%, .343 3PFG%

Now, here are the numbers Bayless posted as a starter in his two years with Toronto:

25 games, 18.0 ppg, 6.1 apg, 2.6 TOpg, 3.3 rpg, .460 FG%, .383 3PFG%

Not a lot of separation between the two in their small sample sizes. Lin has the edge as a playmaker, but it's not an oversized one, and it's mitigated considerably by the turnover disparity. Bayless has the edge in terms of his percentages, especially as a consistent three-point shooter, and he's also a far better defensive player than Lin is. However all things considered, were it not for the media attention Lin got this season, these two restricted free agents would probably be attracting pretty similar attention this summer.
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And looking at the Raptors depth chart, it's hard to justify a hot and heavy pursuit of either player. The Raptors are in desperate need of a starting small forward, they need outside shooting all up and down the roster and Casey will tell anyone who listens that he needs veterans to help steer his young charges in the right direction. In fact, getting a 23-year-old backup scoring guard is pretty far down the list of needs for the Raptors this offseason. That's not to say that backup point guard is an irrelevant position, but if they are desperate for one, then wouldn't using their draft pick on Weber State's Damian*Lillard achieve the same ends without the outsized investment it would take to secure Lin or Bayless?

Truth be told, I wasn't even going to write this piece. When I first heard the Lin rumors, I was ready to dismiss them outright given the above reservations. However, reading the constant stream of Lin rumors immediately brought to mind another set of rumors for a free agent that made no sense to me for Toronto: Hedo*Turkoglu. When I'd first heard the Turkoglu rumors, I wrote them off, too. His fit was so questionable I figured that any reported interest that the Raptors had in him must have been invented by his agent to drive up his price tag. Obviously, I misread the situation and the interest was real and Colangelo was ready and eager to bet the farm on Turkoglu. He got him and it remains to this day one of the blackest marks on Colangelo's record with the Raptors. Might it be happening again?

Enough lines of interest fit (a 'name' free agent, international appeal, a player that generates more attention than wins) that I couldn't shake the sense of déjà vu when Lin's name started popping up linked to Toronto, but that doesn't mean Colangelo is eager to repeat history with an offer. It would take a lot to shake Lin loose from New York and Lin's agent may simply be angling for as good a deal as he can get from the Knicks with little-to-no leverage by planting (and perpetuating) this story. Plus, with their comparable games, going hard and heavy after Lin while Bayless is still technically in the team's bloodstream would make next to no sense, unless the Raptors see something dramatic in Lin that I do not.
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Old 05-21-2012, 07:44 PM   #2 (permalink)
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I clicked the link and read the whole article. One part, that isn't quoted here, seems wrong....

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Since Bayless is Toronto's own free agent, though, things are much easier dealing with him. Firstly, because of his Larry Bird rights, the Raptors can spend all of their free agent cap space on other free agents (or use it to absorb salary in trades) and then go over the cap to re-sign Bayless.
Since when can you spend cap space on other free agents and then go over the cap on your own players? Wouldn't Bayless be a cap hold that needs to be renounced if the Raps want to use the capspace? Don't you lose the bird rights if you renounce the cap hold? I really need to find a copy of the new CBA.
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Old 05-21-2012, 07:51 PM   #3 (permalink)
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I just thought the statistical comparison to Bayless alone was ridiculous and adds nothing to the argument of whether or not they should be interested in Lin.
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Old 05-21-2012, 07:59 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by LX View Post
I just thought the statistical comparison to Bayless alone was ridiculous and adds nothing to the argument of whether or not they should be interested in Lin.
Oh, dude, I actually agree with you. I just get distracted by the cap stuff because I find it interesting, and it's important to understand if you want to know why particular moves can or can't happen.

But of course the comparison is silly. There are a number of variables fucking with those particular samples.

1-Lin eventually received far more attention from opposing defenses than Bayless has ever experienced.
2-Most of the games Lin started were more meaningful than the games in which Bayless started. If I remember correctly, Bayless started a bunch of games at the end of the season one year when the standings were all but decided.

And there are more. No point listing them. We both know.

But, still, I do NOT have Lin in my top 3 of FAs to go after. It's not all basketball though. I think the financial considerations are a legit point.
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Old 05-21-2012, 09:45 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by LX View Post
I just thought the statistical comparison to Bayless alone was ridiculous and adds nothing to the argument of whether or not they should be interested in Lin.
Was just going to say this.... LX beat me to it.
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Old 05-21-2012, 10:07 PM   #6 (permalink)
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I don't want either one of them to be honest. Bayless is a backup, and Lin hasn't played at a high level long enough to justify a long term high paying contract imo. But all things considered, i'll take Bayless as our backup over Lin as our starter if a bonified starter can be had. I'd rather keep Jose as our starter for one more season then have either as our starter next season.
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Old 05-21-2012, 10:09 PM   #7 (permalink)
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I don't want either one of them to be honest. Bayless is a backup, and Lin hasn't played at a high level long enough to justify a long term high paying contract imo. But all things considered, i'll take Bayless as our backup over Lin as our starter if a bonified starter can be had. I'd rather keep Jose as our starter for one more season then have either as our starter next season.
Couldn't agree more!
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Old 05-21-2012, 10:47 PM   #8 (permalink)
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I think by the opening of training camp, Colangelo might have us floored by the changes made.

Don't forget that this is not a guy who's afraid to make trades. And I think he is savy enough to get 1 or 2 high energy guys who are feared in this legaue and who refs have some respect for.
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Old 05-21-2012, 10:51 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Ammo View Post
I think by the opening of training camp, Colangelo might have us floored by the changes made.

Don't forget that this is not a guy who's afraid to make trades. And I think he is savy enough to get 1 or 2 high energy guys who are feared in this legaue and who refs have some respect for.
One thing is for sure. Casey has a hand in this, and he and BC have stated they need shooters and grit. I love the fact that DC is here because he's going to push for added toughness and knows what he's talking about when it comes to what we need. Between him, BC and Stefanski i'm pretty confident that this will be at least a decent summer and we'll be improved. To what degree depends on a lot of factors.....draft, luck in FA, ability to swing a good deal or two.
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Old 05-21-2012, 11:13 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Ammo View Post
I think by the opening of training camp, Colangelo might have us floored by the changes made.

Don't forget that this is not a guy who's afraid to make trades. And I think he is savy enough to get 1 or 2 high energy guys who are feared in this legaue and who refs have some respect for.
the reason why he is not afraid to make trades is because he can't get anything good from free agency as nobody likes to come to Toronto, so either our pickups are crap or we have to draft and trade, thats why it always seems like he's not afraid to make trades because thats really all he can do so it occurs a lot
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Old 05-21-2012, 11:34 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I think the statistical comparison was meant to show how irrelevant a 25 sample is. Bayless had a good stretch at the end of the 2010/11 season where he played very well to the point where many fans were sold on him as a starter. Bottom line is, lots of players have looked great over 25 games, paying major bucks is risky and a risk we really don't need to take right now when we have much bigger needs than a PG.

As far as cap holds, presumably the author feels that bayless will get more money that his cap hold, or, at the very least, his cap hold will be significantly smaller than the money we'd have to throw at lin to get him over here.
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Old 05-21-2012, 11:55 PM   #12 (permalink)
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unless he comes cheap, I really do not want to throw a bunch of money at this guy
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Old 05-22-2012, 12:01 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Truth be told, I wasn't even going to write this piece.
he should go with his first instincts.

chisholm is proof that tsn doesn't give a shit about basketball. the guy's a hack.
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Old 05-22-2012, 12:25 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by moremilk View Post
I think the statistical comparison was meant to show how irrelevant a 25 sample is. Bayless had a good stretch at the end of the 2010/11 season where he played very well to the point where many fans were sold on him as a starter. Bottom line is, lots of players have looked great over 25 games, paying major bucks is risky and a risk we really don't need to take right now when we have much bigger needs than a PG.

As far as cap holds, presumably the author feels that bayless will get more money that his cap hold, or, at the very least, his cap hold will be significantly smaller than the money we'd have to throw at lin to get him over here.
If that's the case he did a terrible job of portraying that. It just seemed like he needed to go in five dumb directions to get enough to fill out his piece. The irrelevance in play ended up being all but two of his paragraphs, and even then he just repeated the same points.
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Old 05-22-2012, 10:01 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Bill Haverchuck View Post
I clicked the link and read the whole article. One part, that isn't quoted here, seems wrong....



Since when can you spend cap space on other free agents and then go over the cap on your own players? Wouldn't Bayless be a cap hold that needs to be renounced if the Raps want to use the capspace? Don't you lose the bird rights if you renounce the cap hold? I really need to find a copy of the new CBA.
Yep, you're right. His cap hold is pretty big too - the Raptors would likely not pay him as much as his cap hold is, so they would actually free up space by signing him, rather than the other way around. Of course, renouncing him is totally the way to go if you need cap space, but you do indeed lose all rights to him.
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Old 05-22-2012, 11:41 AM   #16 (permalink)
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Im fine with the BC going after Lin, but he must look into players like:
Gordon, Drajic even Gerald Green...Before making a move on Lin.
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Old 05-22-2012, 12:26 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Yep, you're right. His cap hold is pretty big too - the Raptors would likely not pay him as much as his cap hold is, so they would actually free up space by signing him, rather than the other way around. Of course, renouncing him is totally the way to go if you need cap space, but you do indeed lose all rights to him.
I'd say that the reasoning is a sound one if the money you are going to give your own FA is more than the cap hold and you don't mind the hold when signing FAs from other teams.

I don't think either is the case with Raps and Bayless this summer.
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