Changes might be coming - Page 3
Old 11-08-2012, 01:06 PM   #41 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by thriller92 View Post
If JV gets taken out for Aaron Gray then all hope is lost.
The scary part is, that may very well happen. Although I could see it being Amir replacing JV in the starting lineup
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:08 PM   #42 (permalink)
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Aaron Gray really makes me mad. Just seeing him on the floor offensively is a pain. Especially when Caseys dumbass decides to involve him offensively..why...
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:09 PM   #43 (permalink)
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I like Aaron Gray when he is aggresively challenging officials in his warm-ups. It's a good role for him.
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:12 PM   #44 (permalink)
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It does matter, the bench players play against the opposing team's bench most often.

Ed davis hasn't played against other teams starters very often
Maybe it does matter, can you explain why Lowry and Derozan rank very favorably. Maybe the team plays favorably when Bargnani is not on the floor.

Yes, Ed Davis hasn't played against other teams starters very often, maybe the team is better off when they play Bargnani the same way. Start Amir Johnson!
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:18 PM   #45 (permalink)
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You can trust in Gray's defense, while JV is a wildcard.
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:27 PM   #46 (permalink)
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Finally! And maybe this can be good for both Landry and jv.
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:27 PM   #47 (permalink)
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JV is running into early trouble against first line centres that haven't worked up a sweat yet. Let him come off the bench after the starter has tired a little and let him play his 20-25 minutes after the first 7 are done.

Its the right thing to do.

Fields? Well fuck...rehab or something.. but something has to give. Maybe he reads this board and his confidence has vanished.
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:39 PM   #48 (permalink)
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like I said from the beginning, if we want to win now, we have to start amir. And, since fields is beyond useless, until he regains his form/confidence or whatever, we need a new starting SF. The best choice is probably mcguire, who is much more useful as a starter because of his defense. And I just can't imagine anybody being worse than fields offensively, the guy is blowing wide open layups.

I'd be ok with JV starting, if Amir gets close to 30 minutes of play. We just can't have davis and JV combining for 35-40 minutes, it's suicide until our other guys don't raise their offensive game a little.
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:45 PM   #49 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by DanH View Post
Lots of good ideas brought up here, and a couple I scratch my head at.

Statistically speaking, here is a breakdown of the 6 lineups that have posted a positive net points so far. The six have played a combined 42 minutes. Small sample size, but it is early in the season, and that's what you get (the most-used lineup this year has only 50 minutes to its name - the second most-used has 9).

In those 6 lineups, the players that appear most often are:
Ed Davis (5 times)
Alan Anderson (4 times)
Amir Johnson (4 times)
Jose Calderon (3 times)
Demar DeRozan (2 times)
Kyle Lowry (2 times)
John Lucas (2 times)
Landry Fields (2 times)
Terrence Ross (2 times)

As well as Gray, Bargnani, McGuire and Valanciunas once each.

The top lineup was Anderson, Davis, Johnson, Lowry, DeRozan.

The top players in terms of overall simple +/- this year are Johnson, Ross, Davis, Lucas, Gray, Anderson and Lowry, in that order.

The top players for net ORTG-DRTG are:
Lowry +33
Johnson +25
Gray +9
DeRozan +8
Davis +6
Calderon +1

And in WS/48:
Lowry .332
Amir .259
DeRozan .161
Davis .118
Gray .106

Based on the above, Johnson, Davis and Lowry are shoe-ins. So, Bargs and Val go to the bench. Jose stays there. On the wings, you have a strong case for DD and Anderson. Then on the bench you have Fields and Ross, who have both been part of good lineups but are not holding up individually.

So, Lowry, DD, Anderson, Davis, Johnson. With a second unit of Jose, Ross, Fields, Bargs, and Val. That's my vote.
you should know better than use +/- for a 5 game sample, they are utterly meaningless.

Our 5 best players are, clearly and without need of explaining, jose, lowry, demar, Bargnani and amir. Since lowry is better than jose, jose needs to go the bench, and that leaves a spot for a SF.

Bargnani is playing like shit, but he appears to be coming into shape slowly. Even so, he's our second best player and without him, our offense, such as it is would be destroyed. It's bad enough now where he's the only one capable of spacing the floor, have an amir/ed/jv combination with demar and another non shooter at the 3 and might as well abandon half court possesions and give the ball back to the offense and hope we can get a rebound to run the floor ...
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:59 PM   #50 (permalink)
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you should know better than use +/- for a 5 game sample, they are utterly meaningless.

Our 5 best players are, clearly and without need of explaining, jose, lowry, demar, Bargnani and amir. Since lowry is better than jose, jose needs to go the bench, and that leaves a spot for a SF.

Bargnani is playing like shit, but he appears to be coming into shape slowly. Even so, he's our second best player and without him, our offense, such as it is would be destroyed. It's bad enough now where he's the only one capable of spacing the floor, have an amir/ed/jv combination with demar and another non shooter at the 3 and might as well abandon half court possesions and give the ball back to the offense and hope we can get a rebound to run the floor ...
You may notice how I used about 5 different stats, including plus-minus, to come to my conclusions. Plus-minus in isolation is useless (like many other stats) - but, like many other stats, it can be a piece of the puzzle.

Frankly, as much as I appreciate Bargnani's offence, he has started really slow and is also blowing a good number of defensive assignments - he has yet to show me what he did last year.

And considering my suggestion had Anderson at the 3, the spacing should be fine. Ed and Amir can both hit the 10 footer just fine - it is only when Amir steps out to 18 feet that he gets in trouble.

And obviously the stats are flawed due to small sample size. But use your eyes. What is out there is not working. The stats just give an idea of something to try. Why the heck would we keep trotting out a Bargnani who can't shoot, a JV who will be awesome in time but is struggling against starting C's with their bulk, and a Fields who can't anything? Lowry and DD actually have the ball in their hands too little when they are on the court and our motion offence is trying to create shots for Bargs as well. Ed and Amir (Amir especially) are both good P+R players and very good offensive rebounders. The lineup I suggested would work fine, and in the limited floor time it has been played, has been +60 points per 100 possessions. Even over a 10 minute sample that is pretty good - and with Lowry and Demar on the floor that means they weren't just playing bench players.

Simple way to look at it is, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. But it sure as heck is broke. So why not try something.
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:59 PM   #51 (permalink)
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While an interesting exercise and great for discussion, do you really believe that you can compare performance this way? Starters and bench players play against different caliber of opponents, and bench players get good minutes when the game has been decided and the opposing team's starters are on the bench.

Isn't deciding starters in this way similar to predicting that the Raptors are going to win the division based on their preseason record?

I'm only stating this cause there are some here who seem to believe all that you say.
Quote:
Originally Posted by moremilk View Post
you should know better than use +/- for a 5 game sample, they are utterly meaningless.

Our 5 best players are, clearly and without need of explaining, jose, lowry, demar, Bargnani and amir. Since lowry is better than jose, jose needs to go the bench, and that leaves a spot for a SF.

Bargnani is playing like shit, but he appears to be coming into shape slowly. Even so, he's our second best player and without him, our offense, such as it is would be destroyed. It's bad enough now where he's the only one capable of spacing the floor, have an amir/ed/jv combination with demar and another non shooter at the 3 and might as well abandon half court possesions and give the ball back to the offense and hope we can get a rebound to run the floor ...
Both of you addressed the 2 points that concerned me the most about DanH's stat post. The 1st is that comparing starters and bench players through the +/- is completely unfair to both groups of players. If our starters played against the opposing team's bench and our bench players played against their starters, I'm sure that +/- will look completely different. The second is a +/- comparison after 5 games - that sample is not just small but when you combine with point 1 it makes the +/- completely misleading.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:00 PM   #52 (permalink)
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Amir, Davis and AA played down the stretch to stretch out a lead in our one win. That was against starters. I thought that was a really nice precursor to seeing this team gain some definition. I don't know what the fuck is going on now. Casey is just throwing throwing players out there randomly. Ed must have done something in his five minutes last night to warrant sitting the rest of the game, but it's hard to see how it could have been worse than what most of the starters did. I hope that was just Casey pushing a button. Because otherwise he's really losing me fast.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:02 PM   #53 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by DocHoliday99 View Post
Both of you addressed the 2 points that concerned me the most about DanH's stat post. The 1st is that comparing starters and bench players through the +/- is completely unfair to both groups of players. If our starters played against the opposing team's bench and our bench players played against their starters, I'm sure that +/- will look completely different. The second is a +/- comparison after 5 games - that sample is not just small but when you combine with point 1 it makes the +/- completely misleading.
The way our starters have been playing (outside of Lowry), I'd take that bet. Obviously the numbers won't remain the same, but I see no reason why the new numbers wouldn't have the same conclusion. It will simply be a matter of scale.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:03 PM   #54 (permalink)
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You may notice how I used about 5 different stats, including plus-minus, to come to my conclusions. Plus-minus in isolation is useless (like many other stats) - but, like many other stats, it can be a piece of the puzzle.

Frankly, as much as I appreciate Bargnani's offence, he has started really slow and is also blowing a good number of defensive assignments - he has yet to show me what he did last year.

And considering my suggestion had Anderson at the 3, the spacing should be fine. Ed and Amir can both hit the 10 footer just fine - it is only when Amir steps out to 18 feet that he gets in trouble.

And obviously the stats are flawed due to small sample size. But use your eyes. What is out there is not working. The stats just give an idea of something to try. Why the heck would we keep trotting out a Bargnani who can't shoot, a JV who will be awesome in time but is struggling against starting C's with their bulk, and a Fields who can't anything? Lowry and DD actually have the ball in their hands too little when they are on the court and our motion offence is trying to create shots for Bargs as well. Ed and Amir (Amir especially) are both good P+R players and very good offensive rebounders. The lineup I suggested would work fine, and in the limited floor time it has been played, has been +60 points per 100 possessions. Even over a 10 minute sample that is pretty good - and with Lowry and Demar on the floor that means they weren't just playing bench players.

Simple way to look at it is, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. But it sure as heck is broke. So why not try something.
And right on cue...c'mon DanH, not everything is stats....I know you love them but stats do not take into account how other teams adjust to the players, exploiting their weaknesses, etc. There is just no way stats can address that after 5 games - I like stats but simply using them 'only' is misleading

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Old 11-08-2012, 02:14 PM   #55 (permalink)
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If its not Fields than I think it may be Bargnani to the second unit to play with Calderon and provide offense off the bench. So far,AB has been out of sync with Lowry and DeRozan in the first unit. He'd still get starter minutes throught the entire game but maybe Casey wants more energy from the tip off and Amir Johnson could add that over Bargs.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:18 PM   #56 (permalink)
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+/- ???


Really? 5 games in, this is what we're discussing with a team with 9 new players?
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:20 PM   #57 (permalink)
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If its not Fields than I think it may be Bargnani to the second unit to play with Calderon and provide offense off the bench. So far,AB has been out of sync with Lowry and DeRozan in the first unit. He'd still get starter minutes throught the entire game but maybe Casey wants more energy from the tip off and Amir Johnson could add that over Bargs.
Bargnani hasn't really been the issue in the first quarters as much as you'd think. I doubt it's AB out of the starting unit.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:22 PM   #58 (permalink)
and that's the bottom line, cause JV said so!!!

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Id like to see

Johnson/Val
Davis/Bargnani
Anderson/Fields
Derozan/Ross
Lowry/Calderon

Give Val the chance to come in with the other teams second unit, he's fouling like a mad man against starters. Give Andrea the James Harden treatment.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:22 PM   #59 (permalink)
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Bargnani hasn't really been the issue in the first quarters as much as you'd think. I doubt it's AB out of the starting unit.

He and Fields share the blame imo.
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Old 11-08-2012, 02:26 PM   #60 (permalink)
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+/- ???


Really? 5 games in, this is what we're discussing with a team with 9 new players?
agreed.... but Dan's point is that something has to be tried.
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