Changes might be coming - Page 2
Old 11-08-2012, 09:50 AM   #21 (permalink)
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take shot away from Anderson and you are left with nothing. Actually you are left with a chucker. Who is taking minutes away form Ross.
Dominic on the other hand had everything but the shot, and apparently hes got midrange going now.
McGuire is very much like a JJ but I think you're taking too much away from AA. The guy knows how to earn his playing time and considering his route to the bigs, he's shown an ability to score along the way. Both are upgrades over Landry.... and so is LK. I'd like to see LK or McGuire start, but only because I'd rather see a bigger starting lineup.
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Old 11-08-2012, 09:58 AM   #22 (permalink)
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please no Anderson. Not in starting not anywhere. He's a D-leaguer

Dominic McGuire is who you want. He will guard the better wing player and provide help defense for Bargs. Dude is talented and deserves it.
Did you guys actually watch the game?

I saw Landry Fields was the only "decent" defender among all our rosters... I agree that he simply doesn't have offensive skills. However, it seemed to me as if he was the only player who understands a perimeter defense.

If Raps were looking for a defensive swingman, we got half piece of that. Just need Fields to step up in his offense.

I have seen that Dominic McGuire made a stupid turnover called "Traveling" in an open chance. This kid should not be granted for playing time unless all other SFs are injured.
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Old 11-08-2012, 10:00 AM   #23 (permalink)
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I'm going to start this post, by saying I'm not trying to make excuses for anyone, I'm just trying to either play devil's advocate or go based off observations.

Fields leaving the starting line up makes the most sense. Replacing him with McGuire does not because if you leave Val out there that leaves you with two offensive deficiencies in the starting unit (a starting unit that already struggles with other starting units). Anderson is the most logical choice, but I could envision a scenario where Bargnani is moved to the 3 and Amir brought to the starting 4.

That said, Bargnani is the other guy who must leave the starting unit (I don't think it will happen) simply because he needs a kick in the ass.

The problem with him, and it's always been this way with him, is that if he's not involved truly in the offense then EVERYTHING leaves him. He's not interested in defense because his mind is focused on scoring on the next possession (and if you've played ball you know a guy like this or have played with a guy like this). Plus, you insert a guy like Lowry who has his own 'flow' to playing the game and you could tell it's impacted his game. He's not comfortable out there and that's affected his game right now.

However, his continuous ball watching and stopping the offensive flow is harming this team. He's a mid-range player who does a lot of damage when he's in attack mode and cutting. Instead, he's been happy at the perimeter and settling and not attacking. When he gets the ball at the top, he's decided already he's going to shoot and just stalls the play. Everyone else just watches. Ed and Amir at least slash and attack from the mid-range and it's when we look the best as an offensive unit (may not score, but there's better flow and rhythm to them).
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Old 11-08-2012, 10:03 AM   #24 (permalink)
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take shot away from Anderson and you are left with nothing. Actually you are left with a chucker. Who is taking minutes away form Ross.
Dominic on the other hand had everything but the shot, and apparently hes got midrange going now.

Well, if he APPARENTLY has a mid range shot....giddy up.
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Old 11-08-2012, 10:17 AM   #25 (permalink)
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I'm going to start this post, by saying I'm not trying to make excuses for anyone, I'm just trying to either play devil's advocate or go based off observations.

Fields leaving the starting line up makes the most sense. Replacing him with McGuire does not because if you leave Val out there that leaves you with two offensive deficiencies in the starting unit (a starting unit that already struggles with other starting units). Anderson is the most logical choice, but I could envision a scenario where Bargnani is moved to the 3 and Amir brought to the starting 4.

That said, Bargnani is the other guy who must leave the starting unit (I don't think it will happen) simply because he needs a kick in the ass.

The problem with him, and it's always been this way with him, is that if he's not involved truly in the offense then EVERYTHING leaves him. He's not interested in defense because his mind is focused on scoring on the next possession (and if you've played ball you know a guy like this or have played with a guy like this). Plus, you insert a guy like Lowry who has his own 'flow' to playing the game and you could tell it's impacted his game. He's not comfortable out there and that's affected his game right now.

However, his continuous ball watching and stopping the offensive flow is harming this team. He's a mid-range player who does a lot of damage when he's in attack mode and cutting. Instead, he's been happy at the perimeter and settling and not attacking. When he gets the ball at the top, he's decided already he's going to shoot and just stalls the play. Everyone else just watches. Ed and Amir at least slash and attack from the mid-range and it's when we look the best as an offensive unit (may not score, but there's better flow and rhythm to them).
Solid post.... but what about bringing McGuire to the starting lineup, thus allowing AB to have more of his offensive touches like last year. Give him all his offense and if everything else doesn't come back with that, ship him out. If you say it's that way, why not load up defensively around him like they do in Dallas, and let him be that offensive juggernaut in between two defensive giants? It stands to reason that given his success last season being the only offensive threat on most nights he played, that when reinforcements come in, his offense would only then need to be replaced as he gets a breather. There isn't enough ball for that many scorers on a court so why not embrace his abilty and with Lowry and DD, you'd have three offensive guys and JV is going to power his way to plenty of putbacks, open jimmies and pick and rolls. That's plenty of offense in a starting lineup with plenty of D as well.... thoughts? Save the offensive three to play alongside Ed, Amir or Gray who are all severly limited on the offensive side of the ball.
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Old 11-08-2012, 10:21 AM   #26 (permalink)
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Solid post.... but what about bringing McGuire to the starting lineup, thus allowing AB to have more of his offensive touches like last year. Give him all his offense and if everything else doesn't come back with that, ship him out. If you say it's that way, why not load up defensively around him like they do in Dallas, and let him be that offensive juggernaut in between two defensive giants? It stands to reason that given his success last season being the only offensive threat on most nights he played, that when reinforcements come in, his offense would only then need to be replaced as he gets a breather. There isn't enough ball for that many scorers on a court so why not embrace his abilty and with Lowry and DD, you'd have three offensive guys and JV is going to power his way to plenty of putbacks, open jimmies and pick and rolls. That's plenty of offense in a starting lineup with plenty of D as well.... thoughts? Save the offensive three to play alongside Ed, Amir or Gray who are all severly limited on the offensive side of the ball.
You think Fields is taking shots away from Bargnani. And how is Fields more of a scorer than McGuire? No matter who you put in the SF position in the starting lineup they'll be the 4th option on the floor.
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Old 11-08-2012, 10:51 AM   #27 (permalink)
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I don't understand why Landry was gifted the starting spot to begin with.
Fields can provide the best D among all SG/SF in Raptors roster and Casey's main focus is Defense. That's why he's still getting his minutes. Mcguire might be competitive to Fields in Defense, but this dude is worse than Fields in terms of everything else...
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Old 11-08-2012, 10:56 AM   #28 (permalink)
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Lots of good ideas brought up here, and a couple I scratch my head at.

Statistically speaking, here is a breakdown of the 6 lineups that have posted a positive net points so far. The six have played a combined 42 minutes. Small sample size, but it is early in the season, and that's what you get (the most-used lineup this year has only 50 minutes to its name - the second most-used has 9).

In those 6 lineups, the players that appear most often are:
Ed Davis (5 times)
Alan Anderson (4 times)
Amir Johnson (4 times)
Jose Calderon (3 times)
Demar DeRozan (2 times)
Kyle Lowry (2 times)
John Lucas (2 times)
Landry Fields (2 times)
Terrence Ross (2 times)

As well as Gray, Bargnani, McGuire and Valanciunas once each.

The top lineup was Anderson, Davis, Johnson, Lowry, DeRozan.

The top players in terms of overall simple +/- this year are Johnson, Ross, Davis, Lucas, Gray, Anderson and Lowry, in that order.

The top players for net ORTG-DRTG are:
Lowry +33
Johnson +25
Gray +9
DeRozan +8
Davis +6
Calderon +1

And in WS/48:
Lowry .332
Amir .259
DeRozan .161
Davis .118
Gray .106

Based on the above, Johnson, Davis and Lowry are shoe-ins. So, Bargs and Val go to the bench. Jose stays there. On the wings, you have a strong case for DD and Anderson. Then on the bench you have Fields and Ross, who have both been part of good lineups but are not holding up individually.

So, Lowry, DD, Anderson, Davis, Johnson. With a second unit of Jose, Ross, Fields, Bargs, and Val. That's my vote.
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Old 11-08-2012, 11:03 AM   #29 (permalink)
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So, Lowry, DD, Anderson, Davis, Johnson. With a second unit of Jose, Ross, Fields, Bargs, and Val. That's my vote.
Man exactly. I would love to see Casey do this but I'm not holding my breath.
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Old 11-08-2012, 11:38 AM   #30 (permalink)
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@WolstatSun: On other hand. Starting lineup isn't working and Bargnani should be coming off of bench. Big reason they don't have energy early

@WolstatSun: Some links this morning: Raptors-Mavs gamer: Toronto Raptors doomed by slow start in Dallas | Raptors | Sports | Toronto Sun Bargnani not fitting in with Lowry, DeRozan:

Take out Bargnani. More energy is needed from the starting five and they are getting torched. Amir is bringing it every night, Ed Davis is like Bargnani, sometimes the light is not always on.
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Old 11-08-2012, 11:44 AM   #31 (permalink)
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Lowry
Derozan
McGuire
Bargnanni
Val

or

Lowry
Derozan
McGuire
Bargnanni
Amir

jose can do the pick and roll with Val
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Old 11-08-2012, 11:49 AM   #32 (permalink)
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Lots of good ideas brought up here, and a couple I scratch my head at.

Statistically speaking, here is a breakdown of the 6 lineups that have posted a positive net points so far. The six have played a combined 42 minutes. Small sample size, but it is early in the season, and that's what you get (the most-used lineup this year has only 50 minutes to its name - the second most-used has 9).

In those 6 lineups, the players that appear most often are:
Ed Davis (5 times)
Alan Anderson (4 times)
Amir Johnson (4 times)
Jose Calderon (3 times)
Demar DeRozan (2 times)
Kyle Lowry (2 times)
John Lucas (2 times)
Landry Fields (2 times)
Terrence Ross (2 times)

As well as Gray, Bargnani, McGuire and Valanciunas once each.

The top lineup was Anderson, Davis, Johnson, Lowry, DeRozan.

The top players in terms of overall simple +/- this year are Johnson, Ross, Davis, Lucas, Gray, Anderson and Lowry, in that order.

The top players for net ORTG-DRTG are:
Lowry +33
Johnson +25
Gray +9
DeRozan +8
Davis +6
Calderon +1

And in WS/48:
Lowry .332
Amir .259
DeRozan .161
Davis .118
Gray .106

Based on the above, Johnson, Davis and Lowry are shoe-ins. So, Bargs and Val go to the bench. Jose stays there. On the wings, you have a strong case for DD and Anderson. Then on the bench you have Fields and Ross, who have both been part of good lineups but are not holding up individually.

So, Lowry, DD, Anderson, Davis, Johnson. With a second unit of Jose, Ross, Fields, Bargs, and Val. That's my vote.
That would make sense. However, you forgot that Bargs will always start, even with Casey coaching unfortunately
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Old 11-08-2012, 11:52 AM   #33 (permalink)
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That would make sense. However, you forgot that Bargs will always start, even with Casey coaching unfortunately
It doesn't make complete sense... as much as I generally trust DanH's stats. It fails to account for who they're playing against. There are major holes in relying on plus/minus as a dominant stat.
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Old 11-08-2012, 12:06 PM   #34 (permalink)
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you guys forget that Kleiza didn't play in first game at all, because coach didn't let him. "family issues" came later after that game. I guess Kleiza got pissed that Casey underrated him and said so, that's why he's no longer with the team.
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Old 11-08-2012, 12:09 PM   #35 (permalink)
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Lots of good ideas brought up here, and a couple I scratch my head at.

Statistically speaking, here is a breakdown of the 6 lineups that have posted a positive net points so far. The six have played a combined 42 minutes. Small sample size, but it is early in the season, and that's what you get (the most-used lineup this year has only 50 minutes to its name - the second most-used has 9).

In those 6 lineups, the players that appear most often are:
Ed Davis (5 times)
Alan Anderson (4 times)
Amir Johnson (4 times)
Jose Calderon (3 times)
Demar DeRozan (2 times)
Kyle Lowry (2 times)
John Lucas (2 times)
Landry Fields (2 times)
Terrence Ross (2 times)

As well as Gray, Bargnani, McGuire and Valanciunas once each.

The top lineup was Anderson, Davis, Johnson, Lowry, DeRozan.

The top players in terms of overall simple +/- this year are Johnson, Ross, Davis, Lucas, Gray, Anderson and Lowry, in that order.

The top players for net ORTG-DRTG are:
Lowry +33
Johnson +25
Gray +9
DeRozan +8
Davis +6
Calderon +1

And in WS/48:
Lowry .332
Amir .259
DeRozan .161
Davis .118
Gray .106

Based on the above, Johnson, Davis and Lowry are shoe-ins. So, Bargs and Val go to the bench. Jose stays there. On the wings, you have a strong case for DD and Anderson. Then on the bench you have Fields and Ross, who have both been part of good lineups but are not holding up individually.

So, Lowry, DD, Anderson, Davis, Johnson. With a second unit of Jose, Ross, Fields, Bargs, and Val. That's my vote.
While an interesting exercise and great for discussion, do you really believe that you can compare performance this way? Starters and bench players play against different caliber of opponents, and bench players get good minutes when the game has been decided and the opposing team's starters are on the bench.

Isn't deciding starters in this way similar to predicting that the Raptors are going to win the division based on their preseason record?

I'm only stating this cause there are some here who seem to believe all that you say.

Last edited by macs; 11-08-2012 at 12:11 PM.
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Old 11-08-2012, 12:10 PM   #36 (permalink)
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you guys forget that Kleiza didn't play in first game at all, because coach didn't let him. "family issues" came later after that game. I guess Kleiza got pissed that Casey underrated him and said so, that's why he's no longer with the team.
It's certainly possible that this could have occurred and they're trying to ship him out asap.
Not sure why, he really needs to see time in the starting line-up instead of fields to see how it works out.
It's not like anything's working at the 3 currently.
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Old 11-08-2012, 12:10 PM   #37 (permalink)
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It doesn't make complete sense... as much as I generally trust DanH's stats. It fails to account for who they're playing against. There are major holes in relying on plus/minus as a dominant stat.
There are few if any problems with relying on stats in that instance. Aside from AA, all those other four players are in the top 5 for the Raptors in terms of win shares/48 minutes and net offensive/defensive rating. Those two stats are actually important and relevant.
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Old 11-08-2012, 12:34 PM   #38 (permalink)
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There are few if any problems with relying on stats in that instance. Aside from AA, all those other four players are in the top 5 for the Raptors in terms of win shares/48 minutes and net offensive/defensive rating. Those two stats are actually important and relevant.
It does matter, the bench players play against the opposing team's bench most often.

Ed davis hasn't played against other teams starters very often
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Old 11-08-2012, 12:53 PM   #39 (permalink)
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If JV gets taken out for Aaron Gray then all hope is lost.
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Old 11-08-2012, 01:03 PM   #40 (permalink)
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If JV gets taken out for Aaron Gray then all hope is lost.
If that happens Casey will need to get fired.
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