can we still miss the playoffs?
Old 03-15-2008, 09:55 PM   #1 (permalink)
whatever

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Quote:
Legend:

red = almost sure loss
green = almost sure win

orange = 50-50 chance

black = direct competition
Given our upcoming schedule:

@Sac
@Uta
Mia
@Cle
Den
Det

NY
NO
@Cha
@Atl
Cha
@NJ
Mil
Nj
@Det
Mia
@Chi

I see 6 almost guaranteed losses and 2 almost guaranteed wins. Games highlighted in orange I see as 50-50, so for those 6 let's count 3 wins. And we're left with 3 games against direct competition for the playoffs (NJ and Atlanta). Let's assume some bad luck and we end up losing all 3. We're left with only 5 wins until the end of the season. 5 + 34 = 39 which might not be enough.

Even if we win one of these 3, with 40, we could still be in danger. And I doubt we can sweep NJ considering we couldn't sweep anybody so far ... So best case scenario would be we win 2 of these 3, and we still finish below .500. And I think I've been very fair in my assesment. The way it stands right now, I see ourselves finishing with 38-40 wins, which would be amazing because that's the exact number Hollinger predicted for us at the beginning of the season ...
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Old 03-15-2008, 10:40 PM   #2 (permalink)
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No.

Milwaukee at home is an almost sure win. Disgusting road team. @ Detroit is also 50-50 because they'll be resting players no doubt. I'd also put those Atlanta and NJ games as orange, I mean with Bosh we're still a lot better than them. We can also beat Denver at home, they're one of those teams who does great in their building but is average on the road.

And really, 38-39 games (which we would get from the Miami x2, NY @ home, Milwaukee games alone) is enough to make the playoffs this year. Two of NJ, Atlanta, and Chicago would have to both play .650 ball from here on out, and I don't think they can do that. Our magic number is currently 10, so I don't see any way how we can miss the playoffs, unless Bosh never comes back.

Realistically I'll put us at 42-44.

Last edited by The MVP of West Hollywood; 03-15-2008 at 10:43 PM.
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Old 03-15-2008, 10:50 PM   #3 (permalink)
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probably 39 will be enough to squeeze in.

However, I'm not sure about Detroit resting - they will probably be fighting for #1, and Orlando is not that far behind them either. The orange games I didn't want to overanalyze them, probably Milwaukee at home is a high percentage for us, but Sacramento on the road is just as high against us ... Home and away with Charlotte is probably 50-50. Let's raise the percentage a bit, and say we get 4 of those 6 orange games. That will give us 6 "guaranteed" wins, for a total of 40 wins. However, against Atlanta/NJ - it's a very real chance of losing all 3. So it's still a significant chance of actually winning only 40 games. Even if we do make the playoffs, 40 wins would be EXTREMELY dissapointed and would call for dramatic changes, unless we pull a major upset in the playoffs.
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Old 03-15-2008, 10:59 PM   #4 (permalink)
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I think you're judging a bit too much on how we've been playing lately... No Bosh and against hard teams, it's our worst stretch of the year. But we should absolutely be counted on to take care of teams like NJ, Atlanta, NY, Charlotte, Milwaukee, Miami down the stretch. And again games like Cleveland and Denver at home are very winnable, if we get things going again. If they only get 40 wins out of that soft schedule, they deserve the scrutiny, because they showed this year they can be much better.
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Old 03-16-2008, 12:52 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by The MVP of West Hollywood View Post
But we should absolutely be counted on to take care of teams like NJ, Atlanta, NY, Charlotte, Milwaukee, Miami down the stretch.
Why? We barely won the games we played against Atlanta and NY, and we got crushed by Milwaukee, all games played full strength. Other than Miami, I doubt we are heavy favourites against any of these teams ... A fully motivated NJ team can destroy us, they have Harris, Carter and Jefferson, all capable of destroying us in the paint.

But what I'm most afraid is the next 2 weeks. It's very possible (even very likely) that we will lose 5 of the next 6 games (against Utah, Sacramento, Detroit, Denver and Cleveland). Combined with our current 2 of 9 streak, that will put us at 3-15 over the past 18. There will be a lot of pressure on the players, and we are already starting to see some friction.
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Old 03-16-2008, 03:07 AM   #6 (permalink)
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As MVP said, you're judging based on current form. You also got to consider what other team's are doing, it's not like they'll plunder through the rest of the schedule unscathed. I think once Bosh comes back, some order will be restored. We need to focus on finishing 6th because 7th is a 4-game sweep at the hands of Detroit, I think we can do it. Also, Washington still has to go out West which will be tough and I don't think NJ has a chance in hell of catching us, yeah, they've won 2 straight but they won't be jumping over Philly, let alone us.
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Old 03-16-2008, 10:46 AM   #7 (permalink)
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I too think MVP and Arsenalist are right milk in that you seem to be judging your opinion on how this team looks right now. Believe me, I'm down in the dumps too with how we've played but at least there is some light at the end of the tunnel with Bosh hopefully back in the line-up come Wednesday.
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Old 03-16-2008, 02:20 PM   #8 (permalink)
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lately "the other teams" are playing much better than we are ... philadelphia just beat Detroit AND SA, Wizards are getting Butler and Arenas back, New jersey just beat Utah.
In any case - whether we miss it or not, I just don't see us finishing above .500 this season - which is probably worse than missing the playoffs.
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Old 03-16-2008, 02:33 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Well Philadelphia and the Wiz wouldn't be the ones knocking us out of the playoffs... those teams are much better than Atlanta/NJ/Chicago

Beating Utah isn't as big a deal as it seems, they stink on the road. They've lost games to the Clippers, TWolves, and Bulls on the road too.
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Old 03-16-2008, 06:01 PM   #10 (permalink)
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we couldn't beat them ...
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