Bryan Colangelo - best drafter EVER
Old 06-19-2009, 09:57 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Bryan Colangelo - best drafter EVER

via ESPN Insider:

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For all the stats and advanced scouting metrics gathered on prospects these days, Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo maintains there's no real science to the process. "At the end of the day, you also have to trust your gut," he says.

And that puts him in some strange company with a man who says this: "[My draft strategy] came from growing up on the playgrounds and having to pick players -- and not wanting to lose."

That man? None other than Isiah Thomas, he of the much-maligned track record as an NBA executive. But according to the D.R.A.F.T. Initiative's study, Colangelo and Thomas top the list of the best drafters from the past 20 years.

Seriously.

We figured out who was calling the shots for every team on draft day over the past 20 years and then, using John Hollinger's estimated wins added (EWA) stat, tracked how their picks performed in comparison to the expected value of their draft slot (net EWA). To be eligible, a GM had to have picked at least 10 players during the 20-year time period, leaving 46 eligible candidates to rank. Here's how the best and worst shook out:
Top 3:
1. Bryan Colangelo
2. Isiah Thomas
3. Jim Paxson

About Colangelo:
Quote:
Suns, 1995-2005; Raptors, 2006-current
Net EWA: 1.68
Colangelo's midround success is astounding: Steve Nash (1996, 15th pick, +7.72 net EWA), Michael Finley (1995, 21st, +5.15), Shawn Marion (1999, 9th, +9.76) and Amar'e Stoudemire (2002, 9th, +8.88). He also found Stephen Jackson (+2.78) in the second round. But even a guy like Colangelo has regrets. He says he wishes he'd taken Tayshaun Prince at No. 22 in 2002 over Casey Jacobsen. But he's not ready to give up on Andrea Bargnani (-5.97), the top pick in 2006, just yet.
and about Isiah
Quote:
2. Isiah Thomas
Raptors, 1995-97; Knicks, 2004-07
Net EWA: 1.52
Thomas' early picks seemed odd -- fans booed Damon Stoudamire, his first-ever choice. But Stoudamire's net EWA is 0.78 wins higher than expected for the seventh pick, and that's common of Thomas' players. Trevor Ariza (43rd, 2004), Nate Robinson (21st, 2005) and David Lee (30th, 2005) have all exceeded their expected EWA numbers.

Thomas has a name for the attributes he values in prospects: I.C.E. (Intensity, concentration, energy). He picked Tracy McGrady, whose career EWA is 10.5 wins better than the typical No. 9 pick, because he had a quiet intensity "like a lava flow." And he justifies grabbing Lee and Marcus Camby (No. 2, 1996) because, he says, "On the playground, I always picked the rebounder first, because when you play outside, there are a lot of misses, and you want someone who can track it."

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Old 06-19-2009, 10:02 PM   #2 (permalink)
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So that means we've had the 2 best drafters in the history of the NBA in this organization and have one 1 playoff round in 14yrs?? Lovely


Let's hope BC continues his magic next week.

Last edited by jeffb; 06-19-2009 at 10:05 PM.
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Old 06-19-2009, 10:11 PM   #3 (permalink)
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our problem was that we never had 2-3 horrible years in a row, and thus never really had a chance to draft a true superstar. We seemed to draft above average for the position where we drafted, but very rarely had top 3 picks (only twice).
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Old 06-19-2009, 10:19 PM   #4 (permalink)
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....and to add to that our picks always seem to grow tired of Toronto (see VC and Bosh).
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Old 06-19-2009, 10:48 PM   #5 (permalink)
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....and to add to that our picks always seem to grow tired of Toronto (see VC and Bosh).
I think that's because ownership hasn't shown they're willing to take the extra step and spend tax dollars to keep/get the one or two players that can improve the team. I know it's not easy to spend tax dollars since they can't just go sign a bunch of free agents, but they have opportunities they miss out on. Instead they practically give away players just to stay under the tax limit.

Anyone know how many championship teams have been over and under the tax limit since it's inception?
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Old 06-19-2009, 11:08 PM   #6 (permalink)
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drafting has never really been the downfall of the team
its the fact that when we draft a superstar he doesn't stay longer than past 1 extension
and the other thing is we can't sign top level free agents to compliment our draft picks
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Old 06-19-2009, 11:20 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Can they trade #9 + $3Mil (maximum cash) for a higher pick?

Like them to get Evans for SG since it seams like their best option at filling that hole.
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Old 06-20-2009, 01:57 AM   #8 (permalink)
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....and to add to that our picks always seem to grow tired of Toronto (see VC and Bosh).
I don't see Bosh becoming tired of Toronto. Frustrated of being mediocre? Probably. But to say that he dislikes the franchise I think is stretching it, especially considering that he's only been looking out for his best interests by waiting until 2010.
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Old 06-20-2009, 10:48 AM   #9 (permalink)
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you know 9 seems to be the lucky number in this draft t-mac, amare, marion...

could thid be demaqr derozan or johnny flynn
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Old 06-20-2009, 02:36 PM   #10 (permalink)
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What bout Joe Dumars? He is the master of drafting quality players lower in the draft.
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Old 06-20-2009, 03:08 PM   #11 (permalink)
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GMs get too much credit, the scouting staff gets to little, JC put together most of the phx staff himself, he prob deserves the most credit.
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Old 06-20-2009, 03:12 PM   #12 (permalink)
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GMs get too much credit, the scouting staff gets to little, JC put together most of the phx staff himself, he prob deserves the most credit.
Exactly, i agree! And to be honest this is what scares the shit out of me. The Raptors scouting staff isn't the greatest. Atleast thats the impression i get. I would render a guess that BC had a much better scouting staff in Phoenix.
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Old 06-20-2009, 06:06 PM   #13 (permalink)
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scouting is very important, which is why we have so many euro guys so we can try and scout as many places as possible
but if you've ever seen that draft video from Raptors tv, which showed what the staff was doing during the draft, it pretty much showed BC taking people's ideas but still making his call on everything, so in the end you still have to give the GM the credit
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Old 06-20-2009, 06:08 PM   #14 (permalink)
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scouting is very important, which is why we have so many euro guys so we can try and scout as many places as possible
You have Gheradini to thank for that. The guy has great connections from his days with the Benetton Basket
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Old 06-20-2009, 06:43 PM   #15 (permalink)
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i honestly hope bryan retires before he leaves this franchise.
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Old 06-20-2009, 07:12 PM   #16 (permalink)
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GMs get too much credit, the scouting staff gets to little, JC put together most of the phx staff himself, he prob deserves the most credit.
that's a very simplistic approach because if that was the case, there wouldn;t be a lot of differences between how teams draft. Not all scouts are born equal, hiring the good ones is a skill. Knowing when to listen and when to ignore them is a skill. It's rare that 3 scouts will give you the same opinion, so you need to sort through that information. GMs do one on one interviews to assess the personality and the character. They look at all kind of stats and see a lot of players in action themselves.

And in the end, I couldn't care less how he does it, as long as he does it ... And neither should you. Whether it's the scouts, his management skills, his father, God etc. As long as it works
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Old 06-20-2009, 07:15 PM   #17 (permalink)
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Exactly, i agree! And to be honest this is what scares the shit out of me. The Raptors scouting staff isn't the greatest. Atleast thats the impression i get. I would render a guess that BC had a much better scouting staff in Phoenix.
I think you're dead wrong, we have some of the top minds in african and european markets (in gheradini and masai). I guess american based players are somewhat easier to scout since there is so much information on them.
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Old 06-20-2009, 10:36 PM   #18 (permalink)
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But that's not exactly a good thing since as we know, media personalities like to twist the information and make misinterpretations that would rather not be accurate for the purposes of the draft.
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Old 06-21-2009, 02:16 AM   #19 (permalink)
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drafting talent is always a great thing, drafting winners is even harder to do.
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Old 06-21-2009, 02:21 AM   #20 (permalink)
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drafting talent is always a great thing, drafting winners is even harder to do.
A regular Confucius at work
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