Big Men Development Curve
Old 08-22-2013, 10:37 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Saw this article on another board.

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Couple of really interesting findings:

- There’s functionally zero growth shown on defensive rating. We are talking a plus minus of about a point per 100 possesions. This tells me that by the time they get to the NBA, player D is very hard to change.

- Offensive skills is where the growth is for the most part. With a change of about 10 points per 100 possessions being the norm.

- The Peaks using this metric seem to be:
PG: Year 5 (model 1 is Year 5)
SG: Year 3 (model 1 is Year 3)
SF: Year 4 (model 1 is Year 4)
PF: Year 5 (model 1 is Year 4)
C : again a double peak in Year 3 then Year 6 (model 1 is Year 3)
Do Big Men take Longer to Develop in the NBA?

Pretty surprising, given the thinking has pretty much always been that big men need time to bulk up and learn the speed of the game. JV wasn't terrible on D, but he clearly needs to improve. Do you guys think JV has a good chance of developing into a defensive stopper?
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Old 08-22-2013, 11:18 AM   #2 (permalink)
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D12 who is 27 is still 'very raw' on offense according to Hakeem, so I would say yes.
JV needs to improve his D and is offense will be much better 2-3 years down the line. He has the tools to become an all-star.

Hakeem Olajuwon Says Dwight Howard Is Still 'Very Raw' on Offense | Bleacher Report
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Old 08-22-2013, 11:40 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Interesting piece. Although the defense part kind of shows that he doesn't understand that stat.

Quote:
There’s functionally zero growth shown on defensive rating. We are talking a plus minus of about a point per 100 possesions. This tells me that by the time they get to the NBA, player D is very hard to change.
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Old 08-22-2013, 12:49 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Yeah, the driver for DRTG above all else is the team you are on and the role you play. DRTG is much more useful in a team sense than individually.
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