|08-29-2011, 06:56 PM||#81 (permalink)|
Join Date: Jul 2009
|08-29-2011, 07:57 PM||#82 (permalink)|
chucking wood like a woodchuck would if a woodchuck could chuck wood
Join Date: Aug 2011
Yeah, I don't think anyone will bother to look at all drafts over the recent 10 years or so and count busts.
Also, we'd have to decide what's a bust. If a no.10 pick becomes a solid starter but no star, is he a bust?
Like Brook Lopez. I'd say no, because no.10 picks aren't supposed to be stars.
The big issue to me in that there are very few "breakout" centers who aren't drafted in top 5 and become anything close to stars.
Generally, best centers get drafted top 5. Some of them bust, some of them go on to be pretty good - Tyson Chandlers, Emekas. Some of them end up very good even if for a limited time. Yao, Dwight, Pau, Bogut, Horford.
Now with SGs, it's not the same at all. They are spread all over the place. Teams have a really tough time finding great SGs.
There's been 1 great SG drafted in the top 5 since Jordan era - Wade. Maybe Harden / Tyreke will break the curse.
On the other hand, there's a ton of late SG gems, even late in 1st / early in the 2nd round.
So I think if you ask who busts more, a lot will depend on where you look.
When teams see a center with star potential, they always draft him top 5. I can only think of one exception, Bynum, where a lot of teams thought he may be good but were too scared to take him.
So if you count centers who are drafted outside top 5, you'll really make it look like there's a ton of busts when in reality nothing was expected of them.
On the other hand, when teams sees Monta Ellis - a potential star with significant character flags - they often pass. Heck, even DeRozan. Everyone knew he had hgue potential. If he was a similarly raw center, he wouldn't last to no.9. With SGs, that's normal.
So with SGs, you have to look at far bigger spread of picks to get a good picture.
Anyway, to make it short. You can't just count all centers and SGs in the draft and look at how many of them were great. Centers outside of top 5 are not expected to be great, those are pretty much always "need" picks trying to find a decent starter.
I'd look at % of center busts in top 5. And compare it to % of SG busts in the lottery or so. Maybe even full first / early second.
Last edited by ValanciunasFanboy; 08-30-2011 at 05:33 AM.